Poll: Obama Jumps To 12-Point National Lead Over McCain
Barack Obama has taken a big lead over John McCain in the new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, an indication that the presumptive Democratic nominee is benefitting from both party unity and the sheer unpopularity of the Republican nominee.
The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 37%, well beyond the ±3% margin of error. This lends some corroboration to the Newsweek poll from last week that put it at 51%-36%, showing that it was not necessarily a total outlier.
Key internal number: Despite the talk during the primaries that Obama would suffer losses among white voters, he's in fact doing quite well -- he and McCain are tied at 39% each among white respondents in this poll. In the unlikely event that every last white undecided were to break for McCain, Obama would be almost where John Kerry was in 2004 exit polling.
Good job Eric!
You cut my bitching off at the pass.
June 24, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should also note that it is a 15% lead when you factor in Nader and Barr.
June 24, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and post it on poll tracker on the upper right side now.
June 24, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG this is great so now we can't really say that the newsweek poll was an outlier. OMG im so happy
http://www.sensico.wordpress.com
June 24, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe I just said something along these lines
June 24, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chris Cillizza just said the same thing
"evidence a wave is building"
June 24, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
At the same time, McCain is leading among independents in that poll. There's no reason to be complacent. We have to get 60+ Senate Democrats (and 250+ House Democrats) in addition to 270 Electoral votes.
No complacency. Make those phone calls. Contribute. Volunteer.
June 24, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
But on the other hand:
June 24, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And
June 24, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many Independents are Republicans running away from that broken brand. That's why you see independents out numbering Republicans. I call these people Lou Dobbs independents that want to call themselves independents to run away from the Bush years.
June 25, 2008 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Expect an all-out push to drive up Obama's negatives. It's the only chance the Republicans have, and they know it.
June 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
O yeah. I bet Obama and Plouffe expect it too.
McLame has nothing to run on. Nothing he can point to as an accomplishment besides: I'm John McCain and I was a POW.
June 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever, just wait for the terrorist attack Bush will "let slip" as an October present to McCain, since they seem to think that would help:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/06/terrorist-attack-mccains-miracle.html
June 24, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love my life.
:)
June 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really he could win Texas, just needs to work it, our yahoo governor only won with less than 40% of the votes the Democrat challenger was less than two points behind BUT the third party won the independents voted for her but if we can give Obama the Democrats plus the Independents then YES HE CAN win Texas
June 24, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! FOR McCAIN!!!!!!!
*credit to idiotic
June 24, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama running even with McCain with white voters = very bad news for McCain.
June 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is in trouble. He's tied in Indiana, Virginia and Missouri, and he doesn't get to 270 without all three. Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico appear set to go blue. He's way behind in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and Obama is either close or tied in Florida. And now two polls in the past few days (first Newsweek and now LATimes/Bloomberg) have him down double digits. He's going to be outspent, badly, and his opponent shows no sign of being a Demo wimp... And, he's got Bob Barr on his right flank. Everywhere you look, he's got trouble.
(sorry for the repost from another thread here).
June 24, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your post makes my heart go pitter-pat! :-)
Just call John McCain Melba!
He's toast!
June 24, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone needs to e-mail David Broder about that 23% approval rating, and ask him to do another column on Bush's comeback.
And NR? You're absolutely right. An all-out campaign to smear Obama is probably being teed up right now.
June 24, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thing is, I don't think smear campaigns really have that much effect beyond making people feel justified for voting the way they wanted to vote anyway. How many people changed their mind about John Kerry because of the Swift Boat ads? Not many. In Kerry's case, the problem was more that the ineffectual way he dealt with it cast him in a bad light. Don't expect Obama to make the same mistake.
June 24, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still basking in the glory of that Huffpo headline you put me onto - Bush telling the president of the Phillipines that he's reminded of the great accomplishments of Phillipino Americans every time he eats dinner at the White House. LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!
I'm sorry to bring it up again, but I love it so much - I have tears in my eyes I've laughed so hard.
June 24, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep Tina, I laughed so hard for a couple of minutes, then felt sorry for all of us, then went bonkers again...lol.
June 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I know - it's awful, innit? All you can do is laugh, though. Although I'll always wonder that His atrocious mother didn't get her throat cut when she told those NOLA refugees in Houston that they'd never had it better in their lives.
But that's the Bushes. It's their world; the rest of us just live here.
June 24, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just saw that headline. FUNNY! Rivals the time he asked the president of Brazil, "Do you have blacks, too?"
June 24, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd forgotten about that. There have been so many! And all have been so - unique. LOL!
He's got that going for him for his legacy - he's been the most uniquely bad president ever.
June 24, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
and don't forget the classic line....
"the french are the only nation without a word for entrepreneur."
June 24, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll drink to this too.
June 24, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this rate, you've got to be approaching the Schnockeredville City Limits!
Don't look now, but I'm approaching in your rearview!!
June 24, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he's an empty suit bitter losing white voters!11!1 he's gonna pull his gimp string Reverend Wright bowling score alienating Clinton voters LOL
June 24, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brilliant!
June 24, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you keep reporting polls like this and McCain's not going to invite you to the next Straight Talk BBQ Rib-Fest.
June 24, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the look of things Repugs will pull the plug on McZombie on or before GOP convention. The Conspiracy theory doesn't seem fully unlikely.
Would like to see it happen just to see McSame's face on camera.
June 24, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just that the Republicans will tee up the smears. The MSM just cannot bear the existence of a runaway front runner, especially if the loser is Straight Talking Maverick John McCain(TM). Whatever vile stupidity the Republicans and their totally independent completely out of their control allies cook up, the MSN will eagerly, indeed, feverishly publish.
Get out your hipwaders and your plastic ponchos, folks. Better grab your respirators, too.
June 24, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree, NCSteve. All the more reason to want Obama to raises lots and lots of cash to create ads which tell the voters what the Republicans and MSM won't.
June 24, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
What can McFuddle run on to improve these poll numbers? Let's make a list of those campaign issues he can run on...should be fun!
McFuddle can run on Bush and the last 8 years! we are better off today than 8 years ago.
June 24, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mcfuddle can run on the price of gasoline. It is half of what it cost in 2000.
June 24, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's because George W. Bush talked to his good friends the Saudis and convinced them to pump more oil to lower the price.
June 24, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heard Howard Fineman of Newsweek on Ed Schultz yesterday and he was pretty confident of their poll's validity. Said their methodology of ordering and phrasing questions was impeccable and he wasn't convinced at all the poll was an outlier.
Looks like Howie was correct-o-mundo!
June 24, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's numbers may yet rise, if he can just keep those charisma suppositories from falling out.
June 24, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brilliant!
I love how Obama does even BETTER with Barr and Nader put in the mix.
Honestly, this is just sad. I kinda... sorta... don't really feel bad for McCain.
June 24, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Charlie, call the goddam LA Times. Call 'em right now, ya dictator-representin' secret-plan-spillin' cunt! Tell 'em to call those people back! All of 'em! Remind 'em of the gas tax holiday. Make sure they know about the $300 million battery bounty! And, for God's sake, Charlie, make sure they know about MORE WAR YEARS! We gotta have more war years, Charlie! My daddy and granddaddy were freakin' Admirals, Charlie, and I was a Naval Academy freak show! I gotta be Commander in Chief, Charlie! I just gotta!
"Charlie? Where's my binky?"
June 24, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luckily for Obama, whites don't vote along racial lines like blacks do when there is a white candidate vs. black candidate election. For whatever reason, most whites consider things other than racial similarity to them.
June 24, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's why Obama had a huge heaping 99.99999% majority of the black vote before Iowa. And that's why there wasn't a steady increase in black support for Obama as the primary wore on.
June 24, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought all of our previous presidents had been white.
I must've missed the black one that would prove your point.
June 24, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I, like you, slept through the administrations of Shirley Chisholm and the Revs. Jackson and Sharpton.
Gotta kick that Ambien habit!
June 24, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't like to call names, but your stupid racist avatar makes you an asshole.
Your time is passing quickly, my dim-witted friend.
Right thinking Americans no longer accept your racism.
Thank goodness.
June 24, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching those 2004 exit poll makes me feel proud to be black. We're the only demographic group who went overwhelmingly for the Democrat. Woo! Hoo!
June 24, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
the media is having fun with the political coverage of obama n mcsame when the polls are close, so they can ask everyday why sen. obama not getting a bigger bounce..... msm didn't believe newsweek's polls so i wonder if they will believe this one................(hello everyone i'm new :D)
June 24, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only slightly off topic, but check out those Bush approval ratings!! 23/73!! He's approaching Cheney territory. And dopey McCain keeps hugging this boat anchor for all he's worth.
June 24, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's approaching congress territory. What, at 18% approval?
June 24, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenarios/predictions
1. A terror attack on U.S. soil. Even a relatively minor attack (e.g. a packet of low-grade anthrax mailed to Congress or a heap of radioactive medical waste left in a subway) will result in screamer headlines.
2. A terror attack on European soil, e.g. London. Again, something relatively minor would be enough to set off a week-long terror wave in the MSM.
3. A "major terror conspiracy" bust, either in the U.S. or in Europe. Any group of amateurs or wannabes would generate screamer headlines, and the truth wouldn't emerge till after November.
4. A major terror alert, involving a brief stoppage of air traffic or something equally scary. Perhaps commuter trains this time. Again, screamers in the MSM.
5. Israel or the U.S. bomb Iran nuclear facilities. Bush's and McCain's approval ratings would shoot through the roof. Why? Because American LOVE a good bombing. They simply can't help themselves.
Does anyone seriously think that one or more of these scenarios will not happen in October? Does anyone seriously think that it won't throw the election to McCain?
June 24, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Respectfully, Blue, I don't think many Americans want the doddering old man's hand on the button.
Again, the Republican playbook is based on the Winged T. Obama has taken the Democrats into the age of the Spread.
June 24, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Listen.
You hear it?
That's the sound of a thousand little razor blades busily scraping the "PUMA" stickers off the back windows of minivans.
June 24, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ok i'll bite. what is PUMA? thank you. breid
June 24, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reply to breid.1903
Party Unity My Ass
Actually
People United Means Action
blog.pumapac.org
That is where the madness starts. The most intersting thing is they are doing this for HILLARY. I did not say that she supports them. That is what they claim.
They are just as angry as we all are after 8 years of GWBoosh but they aren't waiting until Nov. to start venting.
June 24, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
"PUMA" stand for "Party Unity My Ass" - it's a group of disgruntled Hillary supporters who have decided that they are going to shoot off their noses to spite their faces and vote for John McCain.
June 24, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha ha. The fact that nobody knows what PUMA is kinda says it all.
June 24, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I admit - I had no idea.
June 24, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It always makes me think of "cougar."
June 25, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
For those not getting what Bat Guano's getting at:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cougar
Sorry. It's not a pleasant thought, but misery loves company.
June 25, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama drinks McSame's Milkshake!! Drinks it up!
June 24, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love the poll!! More more. Am telling you I think its going to be a landslide.
June 24, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love you...AMERICA!
June 24, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The indication in the poll that Clinton backers are moving to Obama kind of puts the lie to the PUMA's claims of a significant movement.
June 24, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
this poll is very condescending to me. it was conducted on a california campus.
June 24, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing that could change the dynamic of this race is for Obama to commit several horrible gaffes, or for a series of new revelations that don't involve his former pastor. Might happen. Or if the price of gas suddenly dropped to $2 a gallon, and they also caught Bin Laden, and the factions in Iraq declared peace and lined the streets of Baghdad with roses and declared Oct. 1 "George Bush Day," and the prices of homes suddenly rebounded and recouped all the value they've lost over the last year... And if John McCain, at the age of 71, finally mastered the art of reading from a teleprompter. It might all happen. :)
June 24, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Says 15%.
June 24, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
McSame needs to close the yawning MENTUM gap and do so quickly before this gets entirely out of control
http://www.timothyhorrigan.com/images/joementum1.png
June 24, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's really great that ll but one of the major polls show Obama with a double-digit lead.
But I'm more interested in the state-by-state polls, since that's how the election is won.
I expect more good news!
June 25, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
the ap headline declares that americans have more confidence in mccain to manage our colony in iraq.
June 25, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink