A new Rasmussen poll lends some weight to Obama's prediction that he can take New Mexico, which narrowly went for Bush last time around. Here are the numbers, which have narrowed a bit compared to last month:

Obama: 47% (50%)

McCain: 39% (41%)

Two key numbers that help explain Obama's lead: More (46%) think Obama has enough experience for the job than think he doesn't (43%). And a solid majority (53%) think the most important goal for the next president in Iraq is to bring home the troops.

Separately, a quick note to readers: We'll be posting here on every swing state poll as they come in.