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Poll: Obama Holds Lead In New Mexico
A new Rasmussen poll lends some weight to Obama's prediction that he can take New Mexico, which narrowly went for Bush last time around. Here are the numbers, which have narrowed a bit compared to last month:
Obama: 47% (50%)McCain: 39% (41%)
Two key numbers that help explain Obama's lead: More (46%) think Obama has enough experience for the job than think he doesn't (43%). And a solid majority (53%) think the most important goal for the next president in Iraq is to bring home the troops.
Separately, a quick note to readers: We'll be posting here on every swing state poll as they come in.
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Very cool. Keep the pressure on.
June 23, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great. More polls = More handwringing for the next five months. I can't wait.
Just a pre-emptive reminder to everyone: Today is June 23rd of an Election year. November 4th is a lifetime away in American politics. There are no running mates, yet. Neither camp has seriously engaged the other spending-wise.
So, it's silly, right now, to predict a) an Obama landslide, b) an Electoral Vote tie, or c) a McCain victory, simply based on poll data from the nation as a whole, or individual states.
Please try and remember this before posting when every new poll comes out.
June 23, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree with you and I really hate polls. They are liars.
'04 convinced me of that.
June 23, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
From you, to the ears of Greg & Eric.
But going by their record, we will be stuck with 24 point, meaningless headlines about various polls, which will be promptly parroted here, without even an attempt at a proper analysis.
June 23, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that is a worthy set of caveats. Still and all, when my wife was pregnant with our son, she loved the obstetricians visits which included listening to the baby's heart-beat. Obviously the child still had a heart-beat even when we were not listening, and the fact that he had a sturdy heart-beat in the first trimester really did not preclude the possibility of difficulties emerging in the second trimester (or some such) but for all that it was pleasure for us to enjoy that momentary (albeit somewhat meaningless) validation that all was going well.
I think that these swing state polls are somewhat analogous. Sure, we could be ahead in OH right now and still lose in November, but it is positive feedback to encourage the volunteers and keep up one's spirits. I enjoy seeing them. I also enjoy the conversations which emerge on the blog posts reporting them. They are fun, even if they are sometimes given to exagerations.
June 23, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a lot of posting depending on your definition of Swing state. Loosely: NM, CO, NC, VA, IA, IN, NV,...
June 23, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, I notice that Markos' state of the race summary is treating every state with poll margins in single digits as a "swing" state, such that even reliable red states like MT, ND and IN are being watched as if they were in play. Exciting, to be sure, but also a lot of work to follow.
June 23, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
How we lookin' in the big MO (aside from our shared river trying to wipe everything away as it is wont to do every five years. "Old Man River" indeed)?
June 23, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a good feeling about Missouri. In order to move the state into the blue column, we are busy registering new voters and voters who have let their registrations lapse in St Louis, Kansas City and Columbia (the three big democratic strongholds in the state). The voter registration drives are yielding big results so far (and we are still just picking the low-hanging fruit). I already think that our chances here are already looking slightly better than even odds in November, but if we can keep up the energy in this registration drive, I think we can reach the point before November where Missouri could be regarded as safely in our column (not there yet, but we can get there, which is saying something).
June 23, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That sounds great, GD. Hope everything works well. I'm out of MN for the summer, interning at State. No, no brushes with Condi. I already had that once in Mosul, back in '05. Keep fightin' the good fight!
June 23, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gosh, I am sure that an internship at the state dept is a fine feather in your cap, but one really has to balk at the prospect of leaving Minnesota for D.C. in the summer. I take it there were no winter internships? Still and all, I hope that it works out well for you.
June 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Right on the money in all counts. Not a nice swamp in the summertime, no? At least there are no (or at least less) tornadoes.
June 23, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
by the polls it looks like the undecideds are breaking for obama
http://sensico.wordpress.com
June 23, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you don't think the Democrat will win New Mexico you don't know New Mexico.
Obama will carry New Mexico.
June 23, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm certainly more optimistic about Obama's chances of carrying NM than I am about CO.
June 23, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Hate polls. Tena, thank you for reminding me about 04. I know I was sooooooooo excited and pouf, I came down with a thud. I think we have an advantage at this point of the game. Lets see what happens. Polls schpolls. Bah!
June 23, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
NM is an easy Dem win.
June 23, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I found a great website that list the current polls and does a good job with statistics, the comments there are also intelligent and less vitriolic.
So check it out. FiveThrityEight.com
June 23, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
nieddu You still haven't fixed the typo in your signature line?
BTW, check the Udall v. Pearce results in the same poll - YEOW! Can you say blowout? I can't wait for the Senate roll call votes when we get to hear "Sen. Udall, CO ... Sen. Udall, CO votes Aye. Sen. Udall, NM ... Sen. Udall, NM votes Aye."
June 24, 2008 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
See what I mean? (Que the marching band!)
June 23, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, your point is fine and accurate. We cheer for polls that show our guy ahead and ignore the other ones (or explain them away, at least). I think that means that we are human...
June 23, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, New Mexico! At least I never have to worry about Taos County, which went 76 percent for Kerry in '04. Imagine that, for Kerry, even. Obama is like Superman compared to Kerry, and we have a great Senate candidate, Tom Udall, who's not only an environmental stalwart but opposes telecom immunity. He's running against an oilman and has a big lead.
This is not your father's wild West any more. Tena is right: Obama will carry New Mexico. You can take that to the bank.
June 23, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with the general complaints about polls in June. But even with those caveats, this is useful in dispelling silly ideas like Obama can't do well in states with large Hispanic populations.
Also, I imagine each of these polls grinding away the souls of the right wing nutjobs who would anoint George Bush lord and master for life. Because I'm just a wee bit sadistic, that makes me happy.
June 23, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
June 23, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting poll because McCain has been running ads here for several weeks (since about the time that Clinton suspended) and Obama just started running his news ads about one week ago.
Rasmussen has a new poll showing Udall ahead of Pearce in the Senate race to replace Pete Domenici.
With New Mexico Democrats eager to snatch Pete's old seats away from the Dark Side and the enthusiasm for Obama this could be a double whammy and have greater implications for the entire ticket.W00t!
June 24, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink