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Poll: Obama Holds Enormous "Voter Enthusiasm" Edge Over McCain
Check out these key numbers that were buried in the USA Today poll that was released yesterday:
61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year's election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.Also in the poll, Obama's fav/unfav is 64%-31%, while McCain's is 59%-35%.
As Mark Murray notes, Obama enjoys an "enthusiasm gap" that is formidable -- the Dem enthusiasm number is nearly twice that of the GOP. It's the sort of thing that could make a real difference in the close states.
The gap becomes even more key in the context of Obama's 50-state strategy: Expectations of an energized voter turnout for Obama will give plausibility to the Obama camp's claims of broadening the map, thus forcing McCain to invest scarce resources in states they might otherwise have been able to more or less ignore.
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Duh!
June 23, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, seriously. Who could have anticipated that Democrats would be more enthusiastic about their young, charismatic, groundbreaking candidate, while Republicans weren't all that jazzed about their warmed over leftover candidate?
June 23, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your concern, CT Voter for our enthusiasm is duly noted.
June 23, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who's concerned? I think it was more a happy feeling of unsurprise.
June 23, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have a post earlier today about the RNC's massive piggy bank, yet you suggest it will be an advantage to have McCain investing "scarce" resources in Red States thanks to Obama's 50-State strategy.....I'm confused about the realities of the campaign's money situation going into the Fall. Surely the RNC will be helping McCain counter Obama.
June 23, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
fair point. I was referring to the resources that one expects will be left re mccain's coffers after they invest in the key battlegrounds...
June 23, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the more reasonable analysis, moving forward, will have to account for money that the parties have to devote to the elections. 527's are, to a large degree, wildcards, and difficult to account for, but I think it's misleading to keep talking about Obama's ginormous cash advantage without considering disparities between the RNC & DNC.
June 23, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
... just to clarify, Greg, I recognize your efforts to do this with stories like the RNC's $50 million advantage, but these things (Obama's seeming ability to print money & the deep pockets of the RNC) seem to be treated as separate issues in stories thus far. When comparing candidates' finances, it'll be useful to make a more explicit acknowledgment of what the RNC will add McCain's war chest.
June 23, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fired up! Ready to go!!
June 23, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, question about campaign finance. McCain is going with public financing for the GE and he'll have a set about of money with which to work. But does McCain opting into public financing have any effect on the RNC spending as they wish on his behalf?
June 23, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
no.
June 23, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, what's the point of public financing?
June 23, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good question...
June 23, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are fairly low limits on what the national parties can spend in "coordination" with the campaign. (I haven't been able to find the exact formula, but Common Cause says it was $16 million in 2004 for both parties combined. They can spend unlimited amounts in "independent" expenditures. I don't have handy the definitions of coordinated and independent, but ads explicitly advocating for a candidate are definitely in the limited "coordinated" category.
The RNC funds are a significant resource, but they're still not nearly as useful as the campaign having the same amount.
June 23, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the legal def of ind expenditure.
http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/14feb20071500/edocket.access.gpo.gov/cfr_2007/janqtr/11cfr100.16.htm
June 23, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and coordinated vs ind.
http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/14feb20071500/edocket.access.gpo.gov/cfr_2007/janqtr/11cfr109.21.htm
June 23, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The point of McCain taking public financing is to attack Obama with something, anything they can.
June 23, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
OB has 1,400,000 donors. If he gets $100 from each that's $140,000,000 and I bet he could get that month after month.
June 23, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in for $100.
June 23, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is going to have a harder time getting donations now than in the primary. Many people gave in the primary because they were afraid he would lose to Sen Clinton. Now they are confident he will beat McCain so they keep their money. Sen Clinton also had more intense negatives than McCain.
June 23, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And some of us have already given more than we can actually afford - or, at least, more than we have ever donated before. That extended primary has wiped me out. Well, OK, I'll be sending another $100 soon, but there IS a limit. I'm hoping all that spending to defeat Clinton is not just money that won't be available against McCain.
June 24, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know this is a bit down the road, but...
I wonder how it's going to play out with the FEC? McSame can't get his money until they get a quorum. But the lack of a quorum is what's giving him plausible denability for illegally opting out of (primary race) public financing after using it as collateral for a loan.
So Boris Spakovsky has withdrawn his name from consideration. Who's been nominated in his place? Any idea when the Senate is going to take up the confirmation issue?
Hmmm...
June 23, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most obvious unintended meaning of this is that "enthusiastic" is the most likely type of person to turn into "disenchanted". Witness the 180° swing in attitude following the FISA debacle.
It's called a fad. Obama is this year's fad and just like all fads, once the initial excitement wears off, it's time for something different.
Obama is this year's Pet Rock™. Marketing 101.
June 23, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
In order for your statement to have any validity, you would be able to point to polls showing a major dip in Obama's popularity. Yet, most current polls show Obama gaining ground. Is this not a contradiction to your "180° swing in attitude" allegation?
June 23, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone needs to look a little more deeply into branding before they go around calling something a fad. Among his supporters, Obama's brand is so strong that it would take something a lot more significant than FISA to damage it. (Read Balkinization for a good take on FISA, btw.)
June 23, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The avitar is hillarious though.
June 23, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, I was waiting for the first FISA handwringing comment. You people are so predictable.
June 23, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink