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Poll: Obama Holds Big Lead In Ohio
Barack Obama seems to have a very good start in Ohio as the general election season beings, a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%, beyond the ±3.6% margin of error.
Back in early March, when Obama was on the verge of a bruising defeat in the state's primary, McCain led 49%-41% in PPP's reporting. If Obama can successfully unite Dem voters and not lose too many Hillary voters -- and this poll indicates he can -- then life could become very difficult for McCain.
Also worth noting: PPP's final pre-primary survey of Ohio got Hillary's primary margin almost exactly right.
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As I have maintained all along, we will win Ohio.
Book it!
June 17, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying all along, the notion that Obama will "write off" Ohio is ridiculous. That state is ready to go Dem in a big way.
I hope this encourages a massive investment in this state.
June 17, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ready to go? It already went. Ask Ken Blackwell, Mike DeWine, Betty Montgomery, and any other GOPer who ran statewide in 2006.
The crosstabs in this PPP poll, once again, underrepresent the under 30 vote. In this poll, Obama only beats McCain 46-45 in the 18-29 age group. Does anyone honestly think McSame will win the under 30? C'mon!
June 17, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I go off the grid for a week and the people of "Round on the outside, High in the Middle" are poised to hand John Dubya a thumping! Hell, maybe I should log off until November so I can wake up surprised to find Washington, DC devoid of Republicans altogether...
(That's got a nice ring to it...)
June 17, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was surprised at how big the lead is I hope this poll isnt an outlier
http://sensico.wordpress.com/
June 17, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Landslide! Landslide! 60 dem senate seats and an historic landslide election of obama! Look out special interests and lobbyists. Landslide!
June 17, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
...and Obama wins all 57 states he visited...and the 2 he didn't get to yet.
June 17, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dead horse, meet stick.
June 17, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching the video, it's pretty clear he meant 47 (1 to go, excluding Alaska and Hawaii), isn't it? Yeesh, I misspeak like that several times a day. It's not like he was taking a civics test. ;-)
June 17, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES! * pumping fist in air *
June 17, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
an eleven point spread. Is it really worth noting that it's outside the margin of error? LOL!
June 17, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find it interesting that his poll comes on the heels of Obama DOWNPLAYING his chances of victory in Ohio.
Expectations setting?
June 17, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
He wasn't downplaying his chances. He was just stating that we're not going dump half our our chips on Ohio, half on Florida and then spin the wheel.
June 17, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well said. I'm so happy the next eight years of my political life doesn't depend on roulette in two states.
June 17, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I did not read his campaign's statement as "we do not expect to win OH or FL." I think that he simply meant that we do not need to win OH or FL. This is an important claim to make. Folks in VA, CO, IA, NV, NM, NC and elsewhere need to understand that we are not writing them off. Part of Obama's message is that we are one united country, so it is important that he make plain that he intends to try to win them over. I am delighted to see this strategy being put into effect and am increasingly optimistic about its prospects for success.
June 17, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is bringing in 240 field organizers and sending them not only to the big cities but out to the distant reaches of the state (Lima, Chilicothe, Zanesville) downplaying it?
McCain simply CANNOT win 270 EVs without Ohio.
June 17, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only way the climate gets worse for McCain in Ohio is if Marc Dann throws him a kegger fundraiser and barnstorms the state in the Straight Talk Express while drunk on Jaeger and not wearing pants. Clearly this is not beyond the question.
June 17, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would almost be worth electing McSame to see that spectacle.
June 17, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
But. But. But.
What about those white working class voters?!?!
This make no sense. How can this be?
Hillary said he had a problem!
The media said he had a problem!
TPM kept pushing the idea that he had a problem.
Some problem, huh?
LOL.
Great news. Snark aside.
June 17, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that's right, remember that Ohio borders:
Pennsylvania (bitter)
West Virginia (white & bitter)
Kentucky (see WVA)
Indiana (bitterly bitter) and
Michigan (bitter about losing to OSU and getting half delegates).
What will the punditocracy do?
what will Lanny Davis say on his new gig with Faux Snooze?????
Oh, the horror!
June 17, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, the joy!
June 17, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
What they missed is that Obama brings that all powerful Barakarate!
Enough said...!
June 17, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi, JoshBlob.
Looks good in OH!
Guess moving to the right and taking it up the bum from AIPAC appeals to the white trash American Idol voters in big OH!
June 17, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Relax, Obamabots, PPP has shown itself to be a POS in the primary. This is a Democratic firm does not know how to conduct accurate polls. Obama's chance of winning OHIO is still equal to zero. LOL!!!
June 17, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aimey, are you for McCain?
June 17, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is a Bob Barr supporter. Not sure if it is from our planet tho. Ken Blackwell sure performed well here in 2006. So did Mike DeWine.
McCain is cooked here.
And George Voinovich is in big trouble in 2010.
The crosstabs spell the real problem for McSame: Obama wins the 30-64 age groups by almost 20 pts! OUCH!
June 17, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't relax, Aimey! I'm too drunk on that Obama kook-aid! Woo-hoooooooooo!!!!!!
June 17, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
kook-aid = kool-aid
[but does it really matter?]
my kingdom for an edit function!
June 17, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which is worse a POS pollster or a POS poster?
June 17, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
OMG!!! Where did you find the Ultraman avatar. I used to run home from school to catch these episodes.
June 17, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Ms. McCaindroid, PPP ranks higher than Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon in SUSA's primary pollster report card.
They missed the actual Ohio result by 1 point: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html
But don't worry, when you want to stop lying and rejoin the reality based community, we'll be here with open arms.
June 17, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Aimée May,
Your mother spelled your name wrong.
By the way, I'd like to make a bet with you about who carries Ohio. I'll give you 4-1 odds. Just give me your Google mappable address and US telephone number.
June 17, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually...the way you have it spelled makes it look like your mommie knew how "Aimée" was pronounced. But calling you "Aimey May" is like calling you "Ay-May-May" and a friend of mine named a Shih Tzu that, I shit (tzu) you not.
June 17, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
God, Obambum, what a bore.
You're the last person in the world anyone would want to see at a party.
June 17, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong, as usual, Trollerina.
PPD has a pretty good record. They made a couple of bad calls, but so has every other polling outfit, including the holy SUSA.
June 17, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is interesting because it's the first major Ohio poll since May 17, when Hillary was still in the race.
At that point:
Quinnipiac 5/17 -- McCain +4
SurveyUSA 5/17 -- Obama +9
Rassmussen 5/15 -- McCain +1
Ohio is going to be VERY close. Obama probably has a 3 or 4 point lead at this point in the race. If he wins Ohio, he has a great chance of winning the race, but McCain is going to go negative on Obama in a BIG way in Ohio over the next few months.
We'll see if this lead stands up after Labor day. Until then the polls don't mean too much unless they are all showing a lead of at least 10 points (like Obama in New York or McCain in Texas).
June 17, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Take that back! Polls mean something, they really do. The clearly mean that Obama MUST have Hillary as his side kick or he CAN NEVER WIN!!!
Now take it back and jump on the Hillary VP Bandwagon.
It is the only obvious choice!!!
June 17, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
good news, i think its finally sinking in to ordinary ohioans..that mccain will screw them with his pro nafta policy
June 17, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's chance of winning OHIO is still equal to zero. LOL!!!
Posted by Aimey May
June 17, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which would place McCain's chances where, precisely?
June 17, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
300+ landslide
June 17, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well Aimee May, you know what Bertrand Russell said about people like you: "The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the wise are full of doubt." We know what camp you fall into, don't we?
June 17, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I likes it.
Obviously not true, so perhaps you should relax and enjoy the ride, cause Barack Obama is the 44th president.
June 17, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio's not essential
There are other paths to victory too this time Eric!
June 17, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent!! Could Obama conceivably take the entire Big 10? Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania?
June 17, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
In your dream, you could be Tiger Woods and Obama could be president. Of course, he could win all 10 but the odd is not as good as you are the real Tiger Woods.
June 17, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
...and once again dollink. You mean to say, "the odds on that are not as good as the odds on you being the real Tiger Woods."
And if you had not gagged on that one, it would have been within postcard distance of funny!
I mean...there are people who are idiots by their opinions, and then there are people who just don't measure up to the "ordinary common sense" standard, people who think that the Lone Ranger lives under their sink, etc.
English is a great language. Consider taking lessons.
June 17, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
For once I agree with Aimee may about the odds not being that good.
I mean I would like it to be 100% but hey still the 90% plus chance cant be sneezed at either.
June 17, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
...that makes me think.... Feingold for VP....
June 17, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I would like to see Feingold in the VP slot for selfish reasons, I just don't see it being a boost to his chances in WI.
Don't get me wrong, I think Obama's going to carry WI due to Milwaukee and Madison being so strongly Dem as has been the case in recent GEs. The rest of this state is slightly to wildly conservative. Believe me, I've lived it.
My gut tells me the moderates will run from Obama if Feingold is VP. He's not as adored here as one might be led to believe.
June 17, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm from Wisco myself. I'd check the numbers from 2004, Feingold reigned in a solid chunk of Bush voters to vote for him as well (around 20%). He also did very well with WI independents, over 60% as I recall, without having the numbers right in front of me. He also does well (better than his Repub opponents) with blue-collar and the less-educated voters as well.
June 17, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WI/S/01/epolls.0.html
June 17, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd estimate 5 to 6% of Bush voters voted FOR Feingold. Bush 49% to Kerry 50%, Feingold 56% to Michels 44%. Clearly, too liberal (snark)....
June 17, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
You have an unhealthy addiction to polls. And its starting to interfere with your work. That is a sign you should seek help. I hear Zogby was offering some counseling.
AS much as most of us here who are democrats like to see good news instead of bad, these polls are totally useless in helping us predict what will happen in November. That is unless you think people opinions are set in stone, in which case why do a poll anyway.
Moreover, I am sure none of the campaigns are relying on this stuff. Obama has already said he intends to contest 50 states. We know he is going to put more effort into some places than others. You would have to be completely and totally brain dead not to think he is going to make a massive effort in every single "swing" state, wither the traditional ones like OH, PA, FL, MI and the new ones like VA, CO, NM, IA, and NV.
This type of poll make not one whit of difference to that effort, so what is the point? Feeding your addiction is all I can come up with.
June 17, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
TPM is definitely a site for political-news junkies. What's wrong with that?
June 17, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tend to feel this way about national polls, but I think that the State polls are more useful. Of course, their utility increases as we get closer to November. And I'm certain that they are not ignored by the campaigns.
June 17, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Dems control the Governor's office and several other state offices for the first time since 1990.
A scandal with the newly-elected Dem AG who was forced to resign this year, has produced "no thanks" from a bevy of prominent Repubs (DeWine, Portman, Pryce, Montgomery) who've declined to run in the special election for AG this November.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Dem state treasurer (Rich Cordray) is poised to win the special AG election, and then allow Strickland to appoint his replacement.
Ohio's turning Blue in the Presidential race this November for the first time in 12 years.
Book it!
June 17, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am honestly so happy for you and for the rest of Ohio.
How I wish Texas would turn all the way Blue again. The cities are bluey blue blue. It's the damn rural areas.
This conservative-progressive divide is really a matter of urban vs. rural, in a lot of ways. Rural areas resist change - stubbornly. That's the source of the problem, IMO.
June 17, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would have been blue in 04 but for blackwell. Is the person controlling the allocation of polling machines, I think its secretary of state, still a republican? If so, it will be tight, if not, it will be a blow-out.
June 17, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
No.
the new Secretary of State is Jennifer Brunner, a Dem and former judge.
The Repubs have gone 24/7 trying to smear her because her office is one of 3 (Gov. and State Auditor) that sit on the state reapportionment board which will redraw state legislative districts after the 2010 census.
Jennifer Brunner has made great strides in requiring paper ballots for those who want them, and in getting rid of the Diebold touch screen machines from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland).
There will be no Repub-hijinx with ballots in Ohio this year (not that they won't try).
June 17, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. That is FANTASTIC news.