Poll: Obama Has Big Lead In Michigan
Another swing-state poll suggests that the damage done to Democratic unity by the bitter primary has been exaggerated. The new Michigan numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 48%, McCain 39%, with a ±4.1% margin of error.
Obama previously trailed McCain in this state according to most pollsters, due in large part to the controversy surrounding the rogue primary keeping him out of the state. However, recent numbers have shown him moving into a lead as he's been able to freely campaign here.
Here's what the pollster has to say about the larger trend at work here: "Every new poll PPP does in a swing state provides more evidence that talk of long term Democratic disunity because of the drawn out contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was over blown."
Comments (36)
But but but... all the idiots on the TV said Obama is going to have big trouble in those states, and that the race is very close, even if all the polls are showing a landslide in the making for Obama.
June 24, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! Quitcher pickens on Sam Donaldson!
Doncher know dat doofusses are a protected species under da Americans wid Discombobulations Act?
June 24, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning,Eric. The polls are just your cup of coffee, aren't they? ;)
Of course Obama is going to win Michigan - I never expected otherwise.
And of course the whole thing with Clinton was overblown - the press lived on it for as long as they could keep it alive.
June 24, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
What? You mean the media doesn't know what they're talking about when they play up polls during primary season as measures of how a candidate would do in the GE?
Nobody could have predicted that!
June 24, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
June 24, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't due to the controversy, it was due to the fact Obama hadn't been allowed to campaign there yet, just like Florida, those numbers were just waiting to shoot up.
June 24, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps it's the super stealthy, secret poll & switch maneuver of the dreaded Pumas! You know they number 13 million in Michigan.
Just sayin'.
June 24, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
June 24, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
apparently Bill clinton's going to be in Unity NH and will endorse Obama. Just breaking....greg can you find out more please.
June 24, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh my gosh..... I am just holding my breath that numbers like this stay on our side...
Michigan (17), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21), New York (31), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4), Vermont (3), Maine (4), Conneticut (7), Massachusetts (10), DC (3), New Jersey (15), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4), Colorado (9), Rhode Island (4), New Mexico (5)
That's 278..... 7 more than needed.
And that doesn't multiple swing states that Obama has a chance to shift...
Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Georgia (15), Nevada (5), Indiana (11), Alaska (3) and maybe even Texas (34).
That's another 134 electoral votes.
I think Obama can legitimately win Florida, Missouri,and Virginia with some level of ease.
Add those 51 Electoral Votes to his total of 278 and he sits at 329. Ihe Obama manages to swing any other states red to blue... he could easily be in the 350 to 400 range.
Holding breath.... I just don't see Obama's campaign imploding the way past Democrats have...his team is for too savy. I am going to keep on sending in my money!
Dave
June 24, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah.
How else could a free-trading, pro-nuke, flip floping corporatist lackey come out smellin like a hope and change progressive?
Savy, brother, Savy
June 24, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Without disputing your questionable characterization of Obama's positions, you're not really arguing that he ISN'T the progressive in this race, are you?
June 24, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, he's just a self-righteous, turd-throwing troll, who adds nothing to any conversation but his self-assured, condescending comments.
June 24, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
One word will suffice Johnny - punk
June 24, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops add in Delaware at (3) and Maryland at (10) as lock EV's and Obama sits at 291.
June 24, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Democratic candidate leads on the issues every single time if you poll voters about the issues. We still manage to lose by being wusses. I am cautiously optomistic that Obama will do beter.
June 24, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to say, I think you're missing a few.
My projections have Obama at or above 300 electoral votes.
June 24, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Gallup has Obama leading handily on key issues.
June 24, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think all the crazy comments from the right show that they are looking at the same polls and do not see a way for Mcain to win. I mean Karl Rove saying he is the cocky guy in the country club, or James Dobson claiming he is reading the bible wrong, or just does not understand christians. I wonder how Dobson feels about the Mcains who lobby against mothers against drunk driving, and all other anti alcohol groups. Evangelicals will be an interesting group to watch. I know Obama has tried hard to reach out to them and a lot of them are listening, if that happens look out. Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi all come into play.
June 24, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
uh, wait - so we weren't supposed to call Hillary a bitch for ruining Obama's chances? You mean it was wrong to claim she was destroying the party? I feel really dumb for not seeing the "destructive nature" of her campaign, as we now learn...oh wait.
I am happy that Obama won though, I hate this FISA bill, so I feel fortunate the "new type of politician" is going to filibuster it as he said during the campaign.
lets rock baby!
June 24, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I support this compromise".
Don't see the word "filibuster" there anywhere.
Huh.
June 24, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of asinine 2-phrase comments, please tell us, the great unwashed, why FISA violates the Constitution, and then explain how the constitution guarantees redress in civil courts against non-government persons.
June 24, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, you'd like to turn this into a constitutional argument, here in the comments section? How bout this, you go and find links to prove why it doesn't violate the constitution.
Or, we can skip that for now - explain why this "new kind of leader" said he'd filibuster any FISA bill that included retro-immunity. Is it ok to call him a liar? Flipflopper? Or what term should we use here? Ok, your turn! Lets see how far you'll dig in order to justify a guys actions, when you don't know him, owe nothing to him personally, and should be using the only leverage we have at this time to hold him to his promises.
June 24, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because as a fellow lawyer, I trust his judgment.
He said he doesn't like it, but unspoken is that he wants to take this off the table, and revisit it when and if he gets elected, including the pursuit of criminal charges.
Both Elizabeth2 and I have explained, at length, our position as to why it is OK for Obama to do this. And why even without retroactive immunity, the telecoms will likely NOT be held liable, except to have to expend attorney fees.
Go check it out in the archives from this past weekend, including Greg's "downer" thread and last Saturday's roundup thread.
June 24, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton isn't a bitch...but you are, del7. :P
Sour Grapes Anyone?
June 24, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
the thing about pundits is that they all fall in love with their own analysis, but when evidence proves their analysis wrong, they masterfully ignore their wrong analysis.
The talk just 2 weeks ago was that BO cant win working class whites then it was he cant win women, then it switched to women over 50, then is was seniors, then it was suburban woman. Since then polls have come out and said the opposite and the pundits dont have the integrity to say "look i was wrong."
It goes to show that pundits get paid a lot of money to simply make a GUESS and most of the time they are wrong.
June 24, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Listen, If Obama has to run to the center to get elected...then so be it. I know he will govern from the left.
It is a proven electability strategy. Whoe doesn't remember Bush's centrist "compassionate conservative" bullshit. he won with it and then proceeded to govern from the far right.
Campaign in the center, govern from the left.
Whatever it takes.
June 24, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Landslide coming.
June 24, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
And all these polls from swing states make Clinton's position in what we are told are ongoing negotiations absolutely untenable.
June 24, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
DemDave et al - am I bitter? Not a bit. Go back and read my limited number of comments. Don't think Hillary is all that great. However, what really bothered me is all the Obama-cultists who were constantly bitching and whining, telling us how horrific a person Hillary is, etc. I simply have a problem with naive folks who shout down others based on their ignorance.
I guess if I'm *upset* about anything, it was having to face that fact that so many on the Left, esp. here at TPM (a site I've visited almost daily for 7 years at least), can be as ignorant as those on the Right.
See, if someone said Obama is "just as bad as McCain", I'd think them idiots. However, I was shocked at the number of people that argued, with certainty and arrogance, that Obama was great, but could never say "why". My question was always, "NOT what he's said, tell me what he's DONE that makes you think this way."
As for the comments, "anything to get elected", you do see how idiotic that is, no? I'll continue to call him out each time he does something that disgusts me. The DEMS disgust me, each one that has caved on FISA, it sickens me. We have NO ONE willing to stand up and fight for what is right.
Those who support Obama, NOW is the time to hold him to his promises. NOW is the time to use your influence - your vote. Demand he start leading NOW.
This isn't even a "move to the center" campaign strategy. It's stupid. It will not buy him a single vote; doing as he PROMISED, refusing to eat it like Dems so often do, would have earned him votes.
He's a craven poll, no different than any others.
So give me something better than "bitter". I'm not bitter, more disappointed watching the Left take the role of the Right back when that "uniter, not divider" was running years ago.
June 24, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
DemDave - again, the proof that he'll move to the center then lead from the Left, you're certain of that because...why? What PROOF do you have? And with this "different kind of leader", weren't we to expect this wouldn't be one of those elections? Isn't he supposed to LEAD, to "campaign" on his actual positions and beliefs? Isn't that what we were told over and over again?
Or, are you saying, "he's a politician, of course he's LYING now, or course he's DECEIVING the voting public. He wants to get elected."
If he hadn't run as "unique", and if the obama-cultists hadn't defended him based on his "awesomeness! honesty! newness!" I wouldn't care that much. Cause thats how I expected Hillary to campaign, to the center, rule from the Left. However, I was told no way Obama was like that.
June 24, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I called this one weeks ago while others here were doing the usual hand wringing.
What else is in the news...
June 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am not surprised he is polling well in MI. it is usually a blue state. it has not elected a republican president for at least 30 years
June 24, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
and do you know who has been left out of the MI and FL fiascos? The citizens who did NOT vote because they knew their votes would not count. They are showing up in these new polls, surely
June 24, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
clinton is yesterday's news...
please allow us to bask in the warmth of an obama victory w/o adding clinton to every darn sentence!
it seems as if obama is doing just fine all on his own and i have always known this to be the case..
i do not put much stock in polls, but therei s no doubt in my mind that obama camp will cross all t's and dot all i's and secure this thing!
keep the polls coming...if nothing else, they boost morale...
June 24, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is in trouble. He's tied in Indiana, Virginia and Missouri, and he doesn't get to 270 without all three. Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico appear set to go blue. He's way behind in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and Obama is either close or tied in Florida. And now two polls in the past few days (first Newsweek and now LATimes/Bloomberg) have him down double digits. He's going to be outspent, badly, and his opponent shows no sign of being a Demo wimp... And, he's got Bob Barr on his right flank. Everywhere you look, he's got trouble.
June 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink