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Poll: Obama And McCain In Dead Heat As General Election Begins
CNN releases more numbers from today's poll:
The general election season opens with a neck-and-neck race between Barack Obama and John McCain, with more than one in five voters admitting that they might change their minds between now and November.In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee, he leads his Republican counterpart 49 to 46 percent among registered voters -- a statistical tie, given the question's 3 point margin of error.
The numbers are the first taken entirely since Obama clinched the nomination.
We've already been through a 500-day Democratic Primary with more twists and turns than a Slinky. Now get ready for a five month battle with the Republicans over at least a fifth of the national electorate.
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Oh puuuuleeeez. He won't get his nomination bounce until the clintons' drama, whining, bs, vp crap, and all the clinton garbage is off the front page, off of the news, and there aren't any more posts on tpm about the clintons. I would say in about 2 weeks or so, we will see the bounce and I would surmise its around 52 or 53 to 39/40 for mcbush. I'll bet a lunch, any takers?
June 6, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Clinton officially concedes and starts campaigning for Obama, or supporting him outright, we'll see more of a bump as disaffected female Clinton supporters come aboard.
June 6, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd agree with you, but I foresee that neither of those two things will happen. I can almost guarantee that the clintons won't be on the trail for obama, other than maybe a couple of token appearances. Would you want those walking sound bites and foot in mouth people campaigning for you? I wouldn't. I'll bet you a lunch that they don't do "active campaigning."
June 6, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take that bet Mike, primarily because I always lose wagers - and I would love to lose that one..lol
June 6, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are on! I hope I'm wrong and he's up by 15 or 20 so that I can pay up.
June 6, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely wrong. The Clintons will be everywhere. Do you think they want the country given back to the Republicans? Do you appreciate anything they have accomplished in their lifetimes? The primary season of 08 has been the largest most inclusive most exciting primary in modern history. The best hope for beating the Republican Fascist party in November is Obama/Clinton and I hope that is exactly what happens.
June 7, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think they [the Clintons] want the country given back to the Republicans?
If it means Hillary can run against McCain in 2012, in a New York minute as they say.
June 7, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, but how about some Hillary news?
June 6, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has OB up 48-43 today. That's a bump for him over there. It will grow.
June 6, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and what McCain doesn't know is that the Federation is about to get involved. We aren't talking bumps, here, but hills, mountains even.
"Obama, Spock, and the New Star Trek Nation"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/
June 7, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain also doesn't realize that the folks who brought us the swiftboat vets for truth have turned their attentions to Sen. McCain for blocking legislation about locating more MIA's and POW's from Vietnam AND for using his power to permanently seal trascripts of traitorous statements from McCain's own mouth.
Had McCain stood his ground against torture, I would have had a drop of respect for him (don't get me wrong, I'm 100% Obama despite being Hillary's declared "demographic") but given his flip-flop on the very issue he endured in 'Nam, all's fair... And the Hillary supporters who are claiming they will now vote for McCain, give them some breathing room as they go through the steps of the grieving process. They've passed through denial and bargaining, and seem to be in "anger" right now. After a period of depression, they will move to acceptance. No honest democrat would vote for McCain. Obama wins in a landslide!
http://polidics.com/ethics/fellow-pows-say-john-mccain-was-a-coward-and-a-traitor-in-viet-nam.html
PEACE
June 8, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I'm looking forward to the polls about a week after Obama and McCain stand on a stage together in open debate. True, Obama committed a couple of debate gaffs in his 21? 22? 23? (I lost count) at-bats; every one of John McCain's stupid comments came from Town Forums or other unscripted events (100 year, anyone? "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb-bomb Iran" anyone?).
Yup. Can't wait until McCain's oratory magic and sheer power at thinking on his feet are compared and contrasted with Obama's.
You know: I can't wait to see polls after this race actually starts.
Besides, where are the questioning tones and headlines concerning the fact that McCain has had a mostly unchallenged couple of months and he's only just tied with his opponent. He should be double-digits ahead after this long, hard Democratic scrap that is starting to end.
June 7, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
While everyone ask, how is it possible that McCain is basically even with Obama. The real question is why, during the beating Obama took for the past 2 months from Clinton didn't McCain ever pull out in front by double digits.
Now that the focus is going to zero in on him, McCain's free ride is going to come to a crashing end.
June 6, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ding, ding, ding - - you are the winner!
Exactly right Joshua. Does anyone think McCain will be as adept at attack politics as Hillary was? Furthermore now we get to fight about policy differences, and McSame will lose that fight spectacularly.
June 6, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. After a protracted 6 month primary contest, where he was essentially running with one hand behind his back (because he wouldn't return partisan-like fire on Clinton), he's still leading (however within the MOE).
I say check back in a month and see where things stand. Especially after the Clinton-drama has faded from memory.
June 6, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also remember that Obama was getting hit from Hillary, McCain, Rush Limbaugh, Fox New... at the same time. All this while Obama was fighting with his hands tied behind his back because he was up against a fellow democrat, Hillary, who he agreed with on most issues.
The gloves are off now and the fight is finally fair. His numbers are defiantly going to go up.
June 6, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Democratic leadership & the DNC couldn't stand up with him for fear of looking like they were choosing him over HRC.
Those time are over.
Democrats will respond in forcefully and in unison from this point on.
June 6, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking forward to that. But, I hope they aren't waiting around for Hillary's blessing to start. Time's a'wasting and we have campaign to press - so let's get going!
June 6, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama didn't take a beating. The media largely gave him a pass and he received immense publicity. McCain actually was largely ignored by the press and did not benefit from constant publicity.
As I said, the Obamites will attack my posts as pro-McCain but they are nothing of the sort. Lockstep party regulars will not deviate. Thinking Americans will look at both and decide who they feel comfortable with. It will largely not be decided by policy platforms. It will be comfort level. I suspect Axelrod would agree as he based his entire puppet show based on that notion.
June 6, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are a Republican Troll. Seem to be a dying breed actually. Where are gotalife and dembillc?
June 6, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before paying too much attention to fogu2, please read the post on the TPM main page called "Silent Majority."
Of course, anyone talking about "lockstep party regulars" when describing the Democratic party today hasn't been watching the news much -- there was a hotly contested primary that lasted over five months, right? And weren't there many Democrats who sweated and argued energetically over their candidates -- not just Senators Clinton and Obama, mind you? But all of this has long since vanished, it seems, from fogu2's consciousness.
But the deeper point is this: when you see multiple and oddly similar posts proclaiming that now that Hilary has been defeated, the writer just "feels safer" or enjoys a higher "comfort level" with Senator McCain, it is only reasonable to view such posts as plants. No doubt, some voters genuinely feel this way -- though perhaps they might want to query themselves what, in particular, makes them 'uncomfortable' with Senator Obama. But the majority of such posts, it is reasonable to conclude, are spoilers intending to sow doubt, just as the TPM team noted. Read the post!
After all, McCain can't possibly win on the issues with Clinton supporters, so a drumbeat of "comfort" and other slippery terms intended to evoke unpleasant passions will be put into circulation.
June 6, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember what Don Corleone told Michael before he died. Whoever comes to you with the deal, they were the traitor...
Anyone who gets soft on McCain between now and November is expecting us to forget 5000 dead American soldiers, a hundred thousand more injured or haunted by bloody memories, a half a million innocent civilians who have been killed with our tax money, and millions more with their lives totally disrupted.
We can't give McCain any quarter, and anyone who tries to mollify our indignation is a concern troll, needs to be identified as such.
Save your exercise in free speech for the 111th, because until we change some of the new laws we live under, we really don't have any rights they do not choose to give us.
June 7, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So true. Americans won't care about the quagmire of Iraq fought on false premises, the trillion-dollar deficit and cuts in government services, $5 a gallon gas prices, 5.5% unemployment and thousands of lost jobs, and rising foreclosures caused by disastrous Republican policies rubber-stamped by McCain. They will vote on "comfort level" and whom they want to join them for a beer. Keep your eyes focused on the shiny chain swayed back and forth by Karl Rove and Fixed News. You are getting very sleepy ...
June 6, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I just might ask the reverse question,
How in the hell is a rather unknown junior senator from Illinois polling slightly ahead, (yes I know about the margin of error, Obama usually gets that one)of the MSM's favorite candidate from the last decade.
A person who has a very good military story to tell on the campaign trail.
Who has gotten VERY FAVORABLE national press since the 2000 presidential primaries.
A person who was a chairman in the senate who used that position to get more good press.
How is the relative unknown polling even with this decades media darling?
Well just maybe because when people get to know this new-comer to the national political stage, even just a little about him they find somebody they can relate to.
Somebody who seems to do what he says, something the press "says" McSame does, but for some reason he usually doesn't.
I can't believe that Barack Obama is polling as high as he is, against a person the MSM has given undeserved good press since 2000.
But he is, and now that he won't be getting attacked by democrats and John McCain, Rush Limpballs, faux noise, etc., I think he will find it much easier to allow the American people to know him and understand why he scared the shit out of them back in 2004 when he won a senate seat in Illinios.
When he stands on the stage beside McCain, he will dominate McCain, he is much more photogenic, (yes to many people that matters), and a much more eloquent speaker, even faux noise has admitted that.
McCain got the MSM to give him the meme of "straight talk express", now McCain will have to verbally combat a candidate who talks straight, not somebody who uses spin and good press to claim that mantle.
No I find it a little astounding that Barack has already pulled even with the MSM's favorite candidate, but he did it because he is what McCains press person claims McCain is, too bad for McCain he will have to campaign against a person who IS what he claimed to be.
When more of the American voters actually sit up and take notice, like watching Obama at the convention, and campaigning against a person who is fighting to continue the bush policies. Barack Obama will climb in the polls, and the person who has changed positions to get the nomination of the radical right wing fringe groups you need to get the GOP nomination, but will now change back to try to fool the American people again. Well he will slowly become a very sad caricature of what he said he was.
In November, the American people probably won't vote for that sad caricature, once they realize he really is just a third bush term policy wise.
June 6, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well stated Clif. Amazing how the "Maverick" follows the lead of big money lobbyists who shilled for Ahmed Chalabi and China Oil, among others. Sad how many MSM still parrot his "straight talk" B.S. and fail to mention to policy shifts and complete misunderstanding of the Middle East.
June 6, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to remember how these polls compare to the times when William Jennings Bryan ran for President. Maybe Senator McCain could help me on this one...
June 6, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol.
June 6, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is going to get a bit of a boost when he unveils his latest campaign slogan. "John McCain A Leader You Can Depends On".
June 6, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 6, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I thinks that's "With Depends On".
June 6, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait to see lime green bumper stickers.
June 6, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of which, they really need to hire someone new to choose his lighting/colors. Someone who can make corpses look good, perhaps a funeral director?
June 6, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the green looks good especially the way it highlites his yellow teeth.
June 6, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
George Romero?
June 6, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you heard what the green is even about? I so don't get it.
June 7, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perfect! LOL!
June 6, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate CNN and don't trust anything that comes out of their organization. Their right behind Fox IMO.
June 6, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Behind? I actually think that fox entertainment may be better. The clinton news network has been trying to out fox fox and has been getting progressively worse. The reason is the ratings. Louie dobkins is ten times worse than any of the buffoons on fox and wolfie is soooooo freaking lame. Wolfie tries to go for the "scoop" on tabloid kind of stuff, not important things. It's really pathetic.
June 6, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you seen Wolf Blitzkrieg with his "popular vote scenarios 1-3"? Thank God Hillary is out of the race, or we would have to subject ourselves to that drivel again. He would spend 5 minutes going thru the scenarios, basically to come to the conclusion that they don't mean much at all, and the two were basically tied in popular votes. That's award winning stuff, Wolf.
June 6, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, I flipped over to the clinton news network on primary night sometimes after the big february smack down that obama gave the clintons with 11 straight wins. I would scream at the tv and my blood pressure would go through the roof. That bozo with the board, I can't remember his name, on the delegate count would keep saying that the clintons and obama were "virtually tied." I'd be like no they aren't you gd a**. He's beating them by over 100 delegates, that's not "virtually tied." It just pissed me off. They kept repeating the media talking points sent out by the clintons. God, I can't stand cnn.
June 6, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I agree except Fox has O'Lie-lly and Hannity, otherwise I'd say CNN was worse. Lou Dobbs is dispicable, but not quite as horrible as those two. Ah, screw it! Yes, he is. They're on equal ground.
June 6, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it's best to avoid television. Stick to the internet.
June 6, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I never watch that shit because Mr. Tena owns and operates the one TV in this house, which is as it should be.
I have my own in Taos - to which I am going in the morning - thank the gods - but I still doubt I ever watch CNN or the other news shows. They drive me nuts. I'm not that big a TV fan regardless of who is in charge of it.
I got the Direct TV hooked up for one reason: Battlestar Galactica- I am not missing any of this last season.
June 6, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is fun to throw things at the HD version of Wolfie and Lou Dobbs as they spew bullshit in my living room, though.
As far as getting anything substantive out of it, I agree, that ain't happenin'.
June 6, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lou Dobbs is an A-1 fuckstick.
I had the pleasure of watching a friend of mine, Richard Cohen of the Southern Poverty Law Center, beat him down bad one night on immigration.
Torched him!
Go Richard!
June 6, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spot on! BSG is the ONLY reason I still own a TV.
June 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with that other than olberman. He is awesome.
June 6, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josephcast,
I know a producer at CNN in New York. Cannot give you his name. He and many others do not like or respect Glenn Beck's show and are sharply disappointed in how Lou Dobbs has become a complete right wing nut job. It was done to combat attacks by Republicans and friends of Fox News who called CNN "leftist." So I don't believe CNN as a whole is as bad as Fox News, but they've caved. MSNBC didn't and now they are the torch bearer of the new mainstream.
June 6, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember, as a very young man, how the election of JFK changed everything for we Irish in America.
It opened up many doors that were closed up until then. Up until then, you could not find Irish Catholics at the head of any corporations or on their boards. Now they are over represented in those same positions. That is why I have pushed so hard to get Senator Obama nominated, so that African Americans, the most loyal of all to our Democratic Party, to make that same break through. No group deserves it more, for no group has had to endure so much in America.
May the wind be finally at their backs, in America.
Since TPM has not bothered to honor the historic event that has just taken place, I thought that you should read the following, that puts it in proper perspective, and honors all who have helped to nominate the best available candidate for President.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/05/AR2008060503433_pf.html
Excerpt:
What He Overcame
By Eugene Robinson
Friday, June 6, 2008; A19
There will be plenty of time to chart Barack Obama's attempt to navigate a course between the exigencies of the old politics and the promise of the new, between yesterday and tomorrow, youth and experience, black and white. For now, take a moment to consider the mind-bending improbability of what just happened.
June 6, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't agree more. Thanks liam.
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! FOR AMERICA!!!!
June 6, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Normally acerbic Liam shows his heart! Bravo. Very well said.
June 6, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this true about Irish Americans? I've never heard of this. Must be a muggle thing.
June 6, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well yeah, if a CNN poll is the ne plus ultra of what is the reality out there.
[rolls eyes]
June 6, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am sure the question went like this: "Who do you prefer? John McCain? Or that guy who stole the nomination from Hillary?"
June 6, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was funny and probably true. All this polling crap is really crap. There are soooo many ways to skew and distort polls. Look at rasmussen, they have made an art out of distortion.
June 6, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink