Poll: House Dems Headed For Massive Victory This Fall
Are House Democrats on the verge of an unprecedented second "wave election" in a row -- one that could win them up to another 45 House seats?
That's the astonishing finding of a new survey by the Democracy Corps, the Democratic polling firm run by Stan Greenberg and James Carville.
The new survey polled 1,600 people across 45 GOP-held districts, ranging from the competitive Tier 1 to harder-to-reach Tier 2 with the named incumbents and their opponents used instead of generic match-ups. The aggregate results showed the Democratic candidate winning the Tier 1 races 51%-42%, and the edging out the GOP 48%-45% in the Tier 2 match-ups, though they trailed 43%-51% in the "rural/small town" category.
During a conference call with reporters, Greenberg was bullish on the Dems' chances this Fall, predicting a second wave on top of the one from 2006: "It's certainly reasonable to think that of these 45 seats, half these seats could go to the Democrat if the trend holds."
My my. Election Central is just filled with good news today!
June 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Obama will be riding that baby, bringing it in, same with the Senate.
Drive the Republicans to the sea! Let's wipe them out for good!
June 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet Blue Wave Rolls On!
Election Projection has 5 seats going blue right now in the Senate - including McConnell in Kentucky! Only 6 so far in the House, but wait 'til more House polls start coming out...
June 3, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you say ...
COATTAILS?
June 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean like these kind of coattails
The Congressional races aren't about Obama.
They're about people being sick of Bush and/or their GOP Representatives.
June 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Constantinople, I know you're always the first to poop in the punchbowl, but before you do, consider this: People may indeed be fed up with Bush & Company (I know I am) but that frustration is part of what is helping Obama to mobilize millions of new voters. It may be true that people are pissed, and that may affect the votes of those who were likely to vote anyway - but Obama's ability to draw voters will mean tons of downticket support for Democrats in addition to the Bush effect.
June 3, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
there's also reason to believe that the coattails could work both ways. in VA, soon-to-be Sen. Mark Warner will easily defeat battered GOP candidate Gilmore. It will be hard for McCain to get 10-15% in crossover votes from enthusiastic Mark Warner voters.
June 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Expect to see Obama having enormous coattails in November.
June 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Jimmy Carter has just said he will endorse him tonight.
June 3, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go go Jimmy Carter! *sniff* I've always loved Jimmy Carter.
June 3, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes. A new majority, a real majority is being ushered in. The moral outrage of the neocons will be but a distant whisper. The Republican party will be reeling for a long time.
June 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As long as the clintons are not on the ticket. If they're on the ticket, there goes the coattails.
June 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Obama will lose his message as well as the coat tails if she is attached to it.
Time to kill the DLC for ever.
June 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drive a stake into the DLC!
June 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coattails have become quite short in the past 30 years as people are a lot more willing to split their ticket than they used to be. But I think this year will prove to be the exception. Obama will draw massive numbers of new voters to the polls and these new voters will be overwhelmingly Democratic. Expect big changes in the Senate, too. Add in widespread dissatisfaction with the Republican brand and this is not going to be a good year to be running as a Republican.
June 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goofy, you are so smart and your comments are always spot on. I always thought that goofy was the smartest in the mickey group and was just playing dumb.
June 3, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news! We can thank Bush. Now don't screw this up, Obama. With a Democratic majority in Congress and a Democrat in the White House we will have a few years to really accomplish some things.
June 3, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feels good not to be pushed into voting for Obama then.
June 3, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weren't you going away forever a few posts ago? And give me that hat.
June 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to hear that that is how you felt. Trust yourself I say. Enjoy and celebrate, the inherent aloneness that comes with your existence. Now, back to the party.
June 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congratulations. You've now officially made more farewell appearances than Cher and Sinatra together.
June 3, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's important to remember that if this comes to pass, this wouldn't be a "mandate" or a "repudiation of the opposition" or "Obama's coattails" or anything like that. Only Republicans can have those things.
June 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
Just like the 2006 elections weren't really a stunning turnaround in party fortunes...and the pickup by the Dems in a freaking midterm election wasn't all that big.
Just like "The Math" of Karl Rove.
June 3, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's throwing a fast one - now Obama has to say get out of here you freaking b**ch. But he can't. But that's what her supporters will hear. Not good.
June 3, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be a wet blanket, but two things: first, the poll was conducted by partisans, which doesn't mean they didn't make it as accurate as possible, but if the poll was good for Republicans and carried out by Republicans, we'd be suspicious. Second, I assume these results come with a caveat, "these results assume we don't get lazy, but work as hard on this election as expected."
June 3, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course he could be whispering to himself (so you guys and Michelle can't hear), THANK CHRIST! SHE'LL DO IT AND SAVE MY SKINNY BUTT!
June 3, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
My cat's breath smells like cat food.
June 3, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ralph '08!
June 3, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Casey451 fail English? That's unpossible!
June 3, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
What would it take to have a filibuster-proof majority in the house and senate - anyone know?
June 3, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senate would be 60, numerically. But since Lieberman caucuses with the Dems, make that 61.
House? Don't know.
June 3, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
And right now there are at least 11 seats that are totally in play for dems, soooo with the right environment and another sweep, the dems can wind up with 61 including sanders from vermont. Traitor joe can go play with the republicans full time then.
June 3, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
No such thing as filibuster in the House.
June 3, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I commend to you
:the">http://www.senate.gov/reference/resources/pdf/RL30945.pdf">the following (pdf)
June 3, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks everyone - above and below - for the clarifications.
So, with the political winds at their backs, it appears the dems a have a difficult but legitimate shot achieving a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, are poised to expand their majority in the House by a large margin, and have good shot at winning the WH.
I like the sound of that.
June 3, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senate: 60 its called the cloture rule.
House: no filibuster..just motion to adjourn or recommit...To overcome motion...You need 1 more vote than the opposition
June 3, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remeber that VP has a vote in case of ties, in Senate.
June 3, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is another reason the VP needs to be a Democrat. Not a tame Republican like Hagel.
June 3, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT Voter...my hope is that Joe will be the GOP nom for VP and he is out of dem party!
June 3, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not gonna happen. No reason to do it. Tailgunner Joe on the Republican ticket isn't going to attract enough Democratic votes to make any difference and he sure isn't going to help with the Republican base. Best course is for President Obama to appoint him to a cabinet position, DHS would be a good choice.
June 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and open up his seat for a real Dem like Ned Lamont!
June 3, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
And hopefully he helps McCain like he did Gore :)
June 3, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I agree with that one. Too funny, he would torpedo mcbush's chances like he helped to torpedo gore. Poetic justice.
June 3, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'd be up for this, particularly if Joememtum! will resign his freaking Senate seat...
At this point, I don't care that Governor Rell would appoint another Republican. I would be that willing to get rid of the Joester.
And I think I have a lot of company for that, here in CT.
June 3, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi all, just logged in, had to work. I saw Carter is backing Obama, is this public yet? Also, has Gore said anything, being that every speech I have heard Obama give he comments on the global warming issue?
Also, no more Pippi, I am standing right side up again in celebration of all the wonderful news today, aside from HRC offering to accept VP.
Thanks for any info!
June 3, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pippi!
The whole flapdoodle over Clinton supposedly voicing interest in the VP slot is waaaaaaaaaay over cooked, if you ask me.
Ben Smith reports that she didn't immediately say "I'm not focusing on that right now" as she has in the past, and that she said, roughly speaking "I'll do anything to help us win in NOvember".
So, there you have it.
And I'm not getting any work done.
June 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for info. I am not going to stress over VP. He has time to decide and maybe things will calm down a bit, let's hope.
June 3, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the press? Those guys who sometimes ask inconvenient questions of your saint? They will be asking LOTS of questions about VP in the next hours. He will PALE under the scrutiny. How long do you think he can hold out before he says he can't wait to hold her in his arms?
June 3, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Casey: I don't think he is a saint, just merely human with flaws and amazing gifts.
June 3, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carter has said he will announce after polls close that he's endorsing Obama. Not a peep from the former veep.
June 3, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aubie: After you put your picture up I did mine too. Always kind of worried about the loss of privacy but seems like a great bunch of people, minus a couple we all know about. Like your picture!
June 3, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cool!
I noticed that yours came up shortly after mine last night. Mine took about two minutes to take with Mac PhotoBooth and turn to a jpeg. Certainly not a glamour shot!
And you're photo certainly lights up TPM-EC!
June 3, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's been posted on Demconwatch. That's about as official as anything ...
June 3, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Must be a FEW heart attacks out there, eh? There's no place in the world I'd rather be (except Necker Island, of course) than right here, or Obamington Po, to watch you guys change your shorts all night long over the VP debate. Don't worry. Not interested in your privates; gotta be as nasty as your publics, so I'll turn demurely aside.
June 3, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
re the head line:
Duh!
June 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
stripes should hang together. ;)
June 3, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, but, what about ME?
June 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're so flexible you can hang anywhere you want!
June 3, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get a can of white paint and get some stripes.
June 3, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIG SHOCKER FROM NEWSDAY - Mark Penn is demanding Clinton stay in the race throughout the entire summer!
Either that, or merely suspend the campaign.
Now there's a voice for her to listen to - Jabba The Hutt!
June 3, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
HEH!
He's been such a source of good news for her. ;)
June 3, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink