Interesting.

Just as Libby Dole rebounds, polls show Obama within two percentage points in the Tarheel state.

I'm thinking Obama wins NC. May be a squeaker, but ...

A Rasmussen poll from a month ago gave Hagan a one-point lead in the wake of her primary victory. Since then, however, Hagan has not gone back up on the air, while Dole has run two different statewide ads in the last two weeks.

What is most striking is that Elizabeth Dole doesn't speak in them.

She's been a U.S. Senator here for 6 years, and yet she has to reintroduce herself to the state. And why? Because she's been absent for the last 6 years.

Kay Hagan's ads were really good during the primary. I expect her numbers to go back up when she begins running TV ads again, and as the Obama folks get out the vote.

I've seen one of Dole's ads here in NC. It introduces Our Lady of Immigration Toughness, but without ever focusing the lens on her radically lifted face. Invictus is right -- we're canvassing & registering voters like crazy. Still, I hope Kay Hagen plans to fight fire with fire. . .

I wonder how much money Libby actually has? Does she have enough for the general, because it's clear that McBush won't be able to help her.

Damn, bad poll, but it is rasmussen, the most right-wing piss poor polling org in the country. Even so, it doesn't look good. Damn, I was hoping that this would be a pick-up. It's still early, but damn. Even taking away 5 from the pineapple and adding 5 to the dem, it's still not looking good. There is still time though.

Dole has been a terrible senator, invisible to her constituents, and she should be trounced. But Kay Hagan is, unfortunately, as invisible as Sen. Dole, and she doesn't have name recognition.

The Democratic Party in North Carolina has a tendency to assume it can't win and continually fails to field strong opposition to Republican incumbents. It is a frightening example of how the old DLC swing-state strategy allows the down-ticket to atrophy.

Obama, building on Dean's 50-state strategy, can change all that, but it may take another cycle. And it will surely require new Democratic leadership in North Carolina.

Any chance that McCain might tap Libby Dole as his VP choice?

Good to see all these follow North Carolinians here!

As you know, the margin of the Senate race here almost always falls between the Gov. and Pres. margins. The key is to have the Dem poll closer to the Gov. than the Presidential candidate. This is due to the fact that significant parts of the "Down East" vote always votes Dem for Gov, but never for Pres. For Senate, it's the swing vote.

This election could be really strange, for several reasons. First, the Presidential nominee is campaigning MUCH harder than the Senate nominee. Second, we are likely looking at very high black turnout (black registration has always been high here, but the turnout hasn't matched). Third, there may be some weird patterns - McCrory actually plays fairly well in the more urban, educated areas (where Obama will clean up). Perdue will rack up huge margins Down East, as she's from there and a key cog in the Basnight machine.

So, you will have even higher numbers of McCain/Perdue voters, but also a fairly significant bloc of Obama/McCrory voters. I still expect black turnout to carry Perdue to a 5+ point victory, but any read on the other 2 races is a complete guess at this point.

Hagan will come out fighting strong once she starts. She'll drill it in that Libby Dole isn't actually from this state and probably will connect her to Bush. I've got confidence in her.

I think her first ad is just creepy -- bad facelift/botox and the weird turn to the camera at the end on the beach! She really has been an absent senator but just enough in touch with the 'base' in NC.

Did it also strike anyone who saw the second ad that the $4 billion she got for NC tobacco farmers is essentially an earmark?