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Poll: Despite Revote Controversy, Obama Takes Lead In Michigan

The controversy over the failed revote in Michigan -- a crucial state for Dems -- may not be hurting the Dem nominee after all, a new poll suggests.

The new Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead of John McCain 45%-42%, a result within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, it was McCain who had the statistically insignificant edge, coming in at 45% to Obama's 44%.

There was previously some concern that the battle over the state's delegates might hurt Obama's electability here. But with those questions settled and Obama now the presumptive Democratic nominee, expect him to making even more appearances here in order to secure this Dem-leaning swing state -- and except McCain to be stopping by, too.


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Forget about MI. The black mayor of Detroit, Obama's key supporter there, has virtually killed Obama's chance in MI. Look for Obama to lose MA, given the performance of another slick-talking young man without any experience. Remember this - McCain beat Bush in MI after being blown away in SC in 2000. Obama's chance in MI looks very dicey!!!

What color is the sky in your world?

Speaking of bitter . . .

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You sound as if you know as much about Michigan as you do Connecticut.

Not much at all, as it turns out.

Do you actually LIVE in Michigan? Do you require a map to the Clue bus stop?

Aimey May:

Thank you for your "cautious" analysis. More seriously, thank you for NOT employing your usual racist rant.

-TY.

It takes a racist to see racism everywhere. Shame on you, Barack Obama!

It takes a racist to see racism everywhere

There goes History in the sewer...

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The Detroit mayor situation is a problem in Detroit only which is 85% black. You expect us to believe that they are now going to vote for McCain because they're made at their mayor? Wait. Let me get up off the floor!!!

Smart a$$, the soap opera of the mayor of Detriot has made the white living in the city and suburbs quite bitter, a favorite word of your love boy. they may well take revenge on Obama, you would think?

Uh, you realize that said mayor didn't endorse Obama until like a week ago, right?

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i think aimee's point is kilpatrick is black, obama is black, ergo they're the same. this troll makes me long for the intellectual heft of THOHILLARYCLINTON and the enlightened, 21st century worldview of Otto F.

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this troll makes me long for the intellectual heft of THOHILLARYCLINTON and the enlightened, 21st century worldview of Otto F.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, thank you, thank you, thank you, for the big laugh!!

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Yes, I see. All white people are the same so they see all black people as the same. Of course, they will rail against Obama because of Kilpatrick's tawdry affair. Just like all the blacks in NY will never vote for another white guy because of the Spitzer mess.

Thanks for clearing that up!!

And Romney beat McCain in 2008 in MI. The last poll in Mass, taken before Clinton dropped out, had Obama ahead 13 points. And the majority of people aren't racially retarded enough to think the performance of one black person has anything to do with another. Anyway, Kwame Kilpatrick isn't any more key than any of the other 7 Michigan supers that endorsed Obama last Tuesday, and less so than the 5 who had previously endorsed him and have been actively campaigning for him, and hardly more than the Gov and Senator that hopped on a few days later. Other than that, though, your argument is flawless.

The mayor's name is Kwame Kilpatrick. And I didn't miss the racial undertone in your "slur"

Look for Obama to lose MA [also], given the performance of another slick-talking young man without any experience.

on Mass Gov. Deval Patrick. Admit it, your sick of the slick talking black politicians. I understand your "young man" reference as well, boy!

Exactly.

All black people must be "slick talking" to racists like this pig.

Kinda brings to mind the sleezy race-baiting of these idiots:

http://www.exposeobama.com

I signed up for their email list, suggest everyone here sign up so we can (as Atrios says) document the atrocities.

You judge your presidential candidates based on city mayors!

you are goofy!

Well, the mayor is black, and Obama is black, soooo.....

Wow. That truly is racist. Blaming all members of race for the actions of one of that race.

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How come she's only goofy but I'm an idiot? At least my rants are plausible.

I called you an idiot?

You'll have to remind me if I'm gonna parse it out.

Perhaps it was Indie X. I've been tagged for things that person says.

Remind me. Looking at your name, I don't have any negative feelings towards it, atleast at this time.

OK. I read some of your comments. You're kinda goofy too.

You seem to have that whole football fan, cheering for my team (right or wrong) kinda thing. Not my thing, but you imply being military in your name, and on a whole I've had nothing but good times with all the military people I've met, even with me being liberal, progressive, environmentalist, and all. So, I'd think I'd give you some credit based on that. But, maybe you said something idiotic. I don't remember. As of now, I don't hold it against you.

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Look for Obama to lose MA,

now that's funny. look for mcCain to lose AZ!

You know, maybe she's right. We'll lose New York, too, because everyone's going to think Obama's blind.

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Dear Smurf: you owe me a new keyboard for this comment. . .

I think it's because Michelle Obama is a racist and the DNC has been hijacked by racists. /snark

Aimey May is the poster child for the KKK. Black People scare her even if they are a Governor of a large State, or the Nominee for President.

Aimey May is one of those inbred, trailer trash, Springer show rejects that think that their skin color makes them special. They do not have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out off, nor the brain power of a fuckin' anvil, but they think that they have something to defend. Sure they do; their lard assed, pimple ravaged, acres of pale ugliness.

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And look how much time you've wasted giving said troll exactly what she/he wants. Congrats!

The rank-and-file voters don't give a rat's ass about the delegate mess. There might be a few exceptions, as you can see by going to Larry Johnson's lunatic site, No Quarter.

This story was news of by and for the pundits.

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What happend? Larry Johson was a God here last year...he used to call me an idiot and a moron daily?

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I cant' see Obama doing any worse than Kerry in any battleground states.

The real battle was with Clinton. A major controversy free Obama will steamroll the Senator from Iraq.

the Senator from Iraq

Priceless!

the "Senior" Senator from Iraq? (no pun intended)

Despite Revote Controversy, Obama Takes Lead In Michigan

May be the headline should be "Because of MI Delegate Vote settlement...."

Anyway, any one who has a remote inkling of MI political landscape knows- the delegate settlement is less likely to make any difference.

Obama was always the strong candidate in MI, provided he's on the ballot. Not many in MI ever believed the entire mess would affect him.

FL is a different case.

Hillary Rosen (HuffPo) all but wrote off Florida for Obama on tweety's show Monday. This is a ballsy statement here in June. I don't buy it. Florida is winnable. Obama is going to bankrupt McCain by forcing the Senator from Iraq (thank you Joerge P.) to compete, well, everywhere.

I'm not saying FL is unwinnable. But MI, despite the misgivings, was always a favorable state for Obama, FL is much more of a challenge.

If I have to call it, from what I see today, with all the equations I'm aware of- it's much more likely Obama will win NC than FL.


FL is tailored made for McCain.

I'm not saying FL is unwinnable. But MI, despite the misgivings, was always a favorable state for Obama, FL is much more of a challenge.

If I have to call it, from what I see today, with all the equations I'm aware of- it's much more likely Obama will win NC than FL.


FL is tailored made for McCain.

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Obama's gang keeps talking about winning NV, CO and NM with those they don't need Ohio or Florida...

Florida is the El Dorado of electoral votes for Democrats. Election after election, we've exhausted our candidates and our broken our bank trying to win the place and it screws us every time. Bill won it by a plurality in '96, when he didn't need it, only because Perot got 9.12% of the vote that would otherwise have gone for Dole. Carter won it in '76 because he wasn't the guy who pardoned Richard Nixon. Other than that, you have to go back to Johnson's '64 landslide to find a Democratic win there.

It's worth contesting hard to force the Republicans to spend time and money holding it, and winning it would be a nice bonus, but if we're actually depending on it, we're screwed.

Florida is the El Dorado of electoral votes for Democrats. Election after election, we've exhausted our candidates and our broken our bank trying to win the place and it screws us every time. Bill won it by a plurality in '96, when he didn't need it, only because Perot got 9.12% of the vote that would otherwise have gone for Dole. Carter won it in '76 because he wasn't the guy who pardoned Richard Nixon. Other than that, you have to go back to Johnson's '64 landslide to find a Democratic win there.

It's worth contesting hard to force the Republicans to spend time and money holding it, and winning it would be a nice bonus, but if we're actually depending on it, we're screwed.

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MI

MA

Who can tell the difference?

BREAKING: Obama veep vetter Johnson resigns.

Seriously? I hate that. Ah well, who was Al Gore's vetter?

Here going Jimmy's chance of becoming a VP candidate.

Seriously, this shows Obama's good judgement of picking somebody good to work for him, like his association with Rev. Wright and Tony Rezko.

Nooooo-- this shows this man is strong. If he can throw his grandmother under the bus when necessary, who's Jimmy anyway?

It would help immensely if you would come to a rational point. Your sick little whisper campaign otherwise fails miserably. No There there.

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"sick little whisper campaign"---that's our Aimee May, in a nutshell.

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I think you can get McCain Points™ without making a rational point, and it's so much less work.

Nobody, not once, has ever given a persuasive reason as to why the delegate issue in MI would hurt Obama. Why would that have the slightest bearing on whether people prefer Obama or McCain? These numbers do not surprise me at all.

This really doesn't surprise me. Obama's been seeing a boost pretty much everywhere. My only hope is that it will continue or even increase in the weeks and months to come.

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The notion that the democrats would lose Michigan over this was a Clinton talking point. Most people in Michigan didn't care about this and none of them blamed Obama. Granholm (a clinton backer) got the bulk of the blame.

When the war is ongoing and the economy is in the toilet, people aren't going to vote based on some arace intra-party squabble.

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The issue with Florida has been the changing demographic. In the past, the liberals in south Florida could help balance out the conservatives in the pan-handle/Jacksonville. The emergence of the I-4 corridor McMansion crowd has changed the nature of the state. These are voters that are more alligned with the Sun-Belt folks than they are with traditional Florida constituencies.

Obama will win or lose in Florida largely dependent on how well he can connect with these folks - many of whom are currently communting 40 or 50 miles a day in gas-guzzling SUVs and have seen their property prices drop. There is alot of work to be done, but I think that a Democrat could do well in Florida this year.

I read an argument that Hispanic Dems outnumber Hispanic Republicans now in FL--another sea change. I'm not counting on FL as they love them some John McCain (and I think Crist might be VP) but there's a shot and I look forward to seeing Obama do just what you say.

Crist is a "bachelor" and we all know what that mean, wink, nod, nudge, and didn't we get enough of that with Dick's daughter?

The GOP is soooooooooooooooo fucked...Florida is in play. It's up to Obama to win it.

That does seem to be the, uh, sticking point. Did you hear they released a video of him making out with a chick in an elevator?

BUAHAHAHAHAHA! I had not! Did they check this alleged "chick" for an Adam's apple?

that's sad. You guys are supposed to be enlightened liberal people. You are now making fun of someone's homosexuality and accuse David Boren, who actually supports your candidate, as a homosexual taking advantage of young students at OU. You guys are truly shameless!!!

I don't even know what you're talking about.

But, yes, I find Republicans who are trying to closet themselves to pander to their bigoted base for their own political gain hilarious, frankly. When someone tries to release a tape of said Republican making out in an elevator with a (married) lady to prove his straightness, that is, indeed, high comedy.

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He's a "bachelor"? I didn't know that. Somehow, I find it supremely ironic that one of the leading candidates for Veep in the Republican party is gay, er, a bachelor.

Freaking hilarious, if you ask me....

One issue where McCain and McLie(berman) are not getting enough credit: helping to unify the Democratic Party. Thank you, no, really, THANK YOU!

Eric: A request.

It would be nice to have a webpage with regularly updated electoral map with latest state-wise polls- especially swing states.

Would like to see latest polls of IA, NV, NH, VA, MI, FL, CO, MN, NC,GA, etc on one page.

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Check out FiveThirtyEight. That's the beauty of the web, one site doesn't have to do everything.

Jinx.

Thanks

Many Michigan democrats that I know were widely opposed to the re-vote, because they would have been left out of it. That's because they voted in the Republican primary since the Democratic one was never meant to count. They were thrilled that the re-vote didn't happen. The only people with any bitterness might be Hillary supporters who pushed the re-vote as a way to swing the primary, which it didn't. This issue is dead, and so are the Michigan hopes of economic know-nothing John McCain.

Another media bullshit talking point of the past few months put to rest.

Exactly.

The entire notion that the primary controversy would have any affect on the general election was entirely made up--without any precedent, proof or rationale.

That supposedly intelligent people discussed it as a plausible scenario is a bit of an embarrassment. Sadly, I never had such high expectations of Eric. His surprise is entirely predictable.

Nice to see you still prancing around this site, dropping your troll-like preemptive "I told you so" rants Aimey May (see top of thread).

Side note:

Aimey May, I appreciated your reader post dated June 6th, and found it constructive in fostering discussion and debate on better ensuring that the Democratic Party all the more, better reflects the principles it stand for.

I am trying to square that post with the vitriolic 'anti' Obama, comments that you are dropping everywhere else on this site (see link below), including references to a commitment, on your part to vote for McCain in November. Not to mention, a deep seeded desire to see the Democratic Presidential nominee defeated.

Any chance, you are willing to put this behind you and work at making the Democratic Party and country stronger, now that these historic and divisive primaries are behind us?


http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/the_final_event_of_hillarys_50.php

The real problem Obama has with the delegate thing is that it caused him not to campaign or build a ground operation there that he can activate for the general. Here in NC, and in most states where he put on a serious campaign, Obama's got a small army of canvassers, envelope stuffers, poll observers who are practiced and ready to be reactivated for the general. Thanks to Carl Levin's obession with New Hampshire, Obama did not have an opportunity to do that in Michigan and a case can be made that it is the most important state in 2008.

We have to carry two out of three of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Have to. There is no plausible path to 270 electoral votes if we don't. Despite all the doom and gloom, I'm not seeing a problem with Pennsylvania. He's consistently running ahead there, he built a good ground game during the primary and both the Casey and Rendell machines will be working for him.

Ohio? He built the team there and it's looking very doable, but, he's behind in the polls and, hell we haven't actually cross 50% there since '76.

I'm not much for armchair quarterbacking the campaign in blog comments--strikes me as silly, pointless and kinda vain--but he'd damn well better be getting organized in Michigan right frakkin now.

I predict he will lose two out of these three. For general election, you have to discount all the polls and figure in Bradley effect. Obama is toasted - so sweet!!!

Sweet toast??

I predict no one here will give a flying f**k what you say.

Oh yea, some moron apparently did so much so as to post a response.

PSA: above is yet another trolling rant of Aimey May, a conflicted Democrat unwilling to work through their own petty ressentiments. Unfortunate sight to see.

Not getting over Hillary's loss is one thing. Defending Joe Lieberman gets you onto my personal "nothing you say is of the slightest interest to me" list.

I realize you are just posting for desperate attention, troll, but you are as pathetically clueless about MI as that other troll who bet that Obama would lose NY! LMAO! Sweet!

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About that organizing in Michigan?

This doesn't sound altogether encouraging:

Obama Sneaky in Michigan

Ohio? He built the team there and it's looking very doable, but, he's behind in the polls and, hell we haven't actually cross 50% there since '76.

I do not really disagree with any substantive point that you are making, but for what little it is worth, Obama is not behind in the polls in OH. He is ahead by 0.2%, which is not much, but it is still not "behind."

The forces of the Hill don't seem to give up. I just received a polling call from someone who was soliciting people "who believe that the popular vote should rule, that every vote should count" and all that. If Obama looks like he would win MI, that should at least take the wind out of that effort.

Those may well have been the forces of McCain or, more likely, the forces of the same twenty obscenely rich Republicans from Texas who are behind most of the slimy wingnut 527's.

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Flipping Colorado and Virignia would get us to 270 just fine. And Obama has alot more promise than a 270 victory.

I'm not saying that it would not be nice to flip Ohio and Florida, but if Obama's chances are down to a +1 strategy then something went way wrong.

Kerry's States - Michigan + Virginia + Colorado = 257.

Virginia + Colorado only get us past 270 if we have two out of the Rustbelt Three.

hey folks,
wow, i found some interesting information on a PUMA group website. this is serious in my book and will lay the ground for folks agreeing this primary has been illegitimate.

These much-heralded rules, specifically DNC Delegate Selection Rule 11A [PDF], states the following:

"No meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states, and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be held prior to the first Tuesday in February or after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar year of the national convention. Provided, however, that the Iowa precinct caucuses may be held no earlier than 22 days before the first Tuesday in February; that the Nevada first-tier caucuses may be held no earlier than 17 days before the first Tuesday in February; that the New Hampshire primary may be held no earlier than 14 days before the first Tuesday in February; and that the South Carolina primary may be held no earlier than 7 days before the first Tuesday in February. In no instance may a state which scheduled delegate selection procedures on or between the first Tuesday in February and the second Tuesday in June 1984 move out of compliance with the provisions of this rule."

Thus, the rules were not only broken by Florida and Michigan, but also by Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Iowa held their caucus on January 3, 2008 instead of January 14. New Hampshire held their primary on January 8, 2008 instead of January 22. South Carolina held their primary on January 26, 2008 instead of January 29.

The penalty for violating Rule 11A, according to DNC Delegate Selection Rule 20C1a [PDF], states:

"In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 8.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state’s delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state’s delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number."

According to Rule 20C1a, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida should have had their delegates reduced by 50%. However, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina were not penalized at all to protect their first-in-the-nation status, while Michigan and Florida were stripped of all their delegates. Thus, the DNC is applying the rules arbitrarily.

And I'm still steamed about the Hayes/Tilden race of 1876.

*cough*sockpuppet*cough*

ohh and FYI...i will create a new ID here. so no misunderstanding...michelle bociurkiw will just be michelle. see you around folks!

JOIN PUMA 2008!

AKA Michelle McGee.

Judging from your posts, methinks you're a robot.

THIS JUST IN!

Everybody I know here in my state of Michigan is for Obama. Or is just against McCain.

I met some pumas at a bar the other weekend, and they were on the prowl! I got them to love the Obama, I did I did!

but everyone you know in michigan are aged kalamazoo hippie liberals with greying punk rock hair cuts. so the sample size ain't all it could be.

Al Gore's vetter... completely out of the question. He had no idea Lieberman was a Republican.

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McCain is the guy who has trouble in Michigan because that's where he said, "these jobs aren't coming back" in one of his Town Hell meetings there. I think the only way he could pull off Michigan would be to have Romney as his VP choice. But, then again, Romney would make problems for McCain in other states.

Correction noted. But somehow I'm not feeling especially comforted.

AIMEEMAY IS RIGHT. OBAMA MUST APOLOGISE FOR THE DETROIT MAYOR. AND ALSO FOT THE PISTONS COLLAPSE IN THE FORTH QUARTER OF GAME SIX AGAINST THE CELTICS.

after that pistons game no black man could win michigan

The headline to this thread is of course derived from a Clinton talking point. All along many wiser heads (including many MI Democrats) tried to explain that no one in Michigan blamed Obama for the fuck-up, despite the best efforts of the Hillary forces to make it seem so.

No need to perpetuate that point of view, even when it has been disproven -- by urging us to be amazed when reality turns out to be other than Hillary's confident prophesies.

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