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Poll: Dem Senator Thought Vulnerable Might Be Safe After All
There are only two Dem Senate seats that have been seen to be at all vulnerable -- Louisiana and New Jersey -- and now a new poll finds that New Jersey may be on its way to being safe.
The new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey shows incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP nominee Dick Zimmer 47%-38%, much better for Lautenberg than a Rasmussen survey from two days ago that had the race as a statistical tie.
If Lautenberg is in fact in good shape politically, then the Senate Dems can be confident of going into this Fall with hardly any weak spots.
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How do you know which poll is correct? How do you know either is correct? If your job depended on it would you base you confidence on a poll about what will happen in 5 months? Will you stake your job on it, Eric? Please.
June 11, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
NJ equals blue state. period.
June 11, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
NJ isn't that simple, we're quickly going broke and people are dieing under the property tax rates. There is a lot of frustration with the status quo and Frank for all his good work is a text book definition of the status quo.
We hate the system, at this point no one really trusts either party. The blue trend of recent years has been an anti-Bush/winger move more than anything else. It's not like the majority of the state has any attachment to the Democratic party.
June 11, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, there's not much a US Senator can do about NJ property taxes. Our big bills are a direct legacy of Gov Whitman(R) and the GOP tax-cutting idiocy.
June 11, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well Rasmussen some times can't be right after all.
June 11, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah the MOE! People just don't get it--it applies to each candidates percentage, not the margin between them.
So, a 45-44 advantage for Lautenberg, and a 47-38 advantage for Lautenberg, means the two polls are very consistent with each other. Assuming a 3 pt MOE for each (Rass's is usually 4), Lautenberg is somewhere between 44-48%, while Zimmer is exactly at 41.
Both polls can be right--I really wish people would understand how MOE works, I find myself explaining this incessantly in forums where the people really should be better informed.
June 11, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't assume anything's guaranteed for Dems in this state. I'm a NYer exiled here 7 years ago. The Dems are in power but it's not a lock. Especially not considering the individuals in the power positions of Gov and Senator. I'd gladly trade all 3 if I could pick the successors. A lot of people feel that way - but unlike me many would trade them for Republicans.
November's a long way off so I wouldn't get too worked up about these polls. But nobody should think Lautenberg is a shoe-in. And if there are folks who decide not to vote for McCain because HE's too old, well Lautenberg is going to be 91 when the next term ends - as we're all reminded here on an almost daily basis.
June 11, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, yeah? What exit?
An how's Tony doin? Swimmin wit da fish?
June 11, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey,
This is not correct. Please update your post. A 9% lead UNDER the threshold of 50% is a sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Any time a GOP Senator was at that mark we have been celebrating, so let's be credible here.
June 11, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The difference in the 2 polls:
RASMUSSEN-taken only the day after contested primary with only 70% of Dems supporting Lautenburg
QUINNIPAC-taken from June 5 (2 days after primary) to June 9 with over 80% of Dems supporting Lautenburg
More reliable Quinnipac
June 11, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Woo! Hoo!
June 11, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Davidsfr,
What's your point? Nothing you say changes the fact that the second poll is encouraging.
If we essentially average the polls (which as you point out can be done keeping within MOE), Lautenberg appears to have a lead.
None of this is inconsistent with the post. Plenty of us can fill in that context.
June 11, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing he was objecting to the characterization of a 45-44 race as a "statistical tie" as a result of the MOE.
June 11, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'b bet the farm on Mary Landrieu provided the Dems give her enough support
June 11, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know; part of the problem is that a lot of Democrats have been "ethnically cleansed" out of Louisiana.
June 11, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Being from New Jersey myself,.. let me assure you all that the state will go for Lautenberg and for Obama huge. The Repugs always think they can dig their claws in and it never ever materializes. The only reason Whitman became Governor in the 90's was because Florio was such a disaster and the state caught the "down with the dem party" movement. Since then, no more. The state is, was and always will be blue. Guaranteed. Put money on it and take the state off the 'toss up" list.
June 11, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take a deep breath and repeat after me ...
Lautenberg will be re-elected quite easily.
June 11, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
when the repuglitard senators in Mississippi, Wyoming and Georgia are losing to Democrats, who really believed that Frank Lautenberg was in trouble ???
we're gonna lose New Jersey ???
when we're winning in Mississippi, Georgia, and Wyfuckinoming
I don't think so
June 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink