Poll: Dem Sen. Lautenberg In Tight Race In New Jersey
In a year where they're expected to pick up a bunch of Senate seats, Democrats might just have a tough seat to defend in a blue state, a new Rasmussen poll in New Jersey finds.
The poll has incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who just won his Democratic primary against challenger Rob Andrews, in a statistical tie with GOP nominee Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman. Lautenberg gets 45% to Zimmer's 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.
On the other hand, New Jersey has a long tradition of close poll numbers between two candidates, with voters disliking both choices but ultimately breaking for the Dem. That pattern held true in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the 2006 Senate race, with Democrats winning both by decent margins.
That said, this one might be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/novak/993409,CST-EDT-novak08.article#
Pelosi backs Emanuel for senator from Ill.
June 8, 2008
BY ROBERT NOVAK Sun-Times Columnist
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reported to be privately talking about Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the House Democratic Caucus chairman, as the next senator from Illinois if Sen. Barack Obama wins the presidential election.
Emanuel told this column he is not interested in the Senate and has not talked to Pelosi about it. He also suggested that Pelosi might be saying she would regret losing him from her leadership team. However, the source quoting the speaker indicated she was enthusiastic about Emanuel's elevation to the Senate.
My own take on this is: I would prefer to see Congressman Jackson be picked to replace Senator Obama. Why not have at least one Senate seat filled by a qualified African American.
June 9, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember Rahmbo from the 2006 elections.
Unfondly.
We have to realize we didn't get into the mess we're in just because of the rethuglicans, there had to be DINO's too.
Like Rahmbo.
~
June 9, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little perspective -- if it weren't for Emanuel's brains and hustle as then head of the DCCC, recruiting candidates and targeting ads against their opponents, we would not have control of the House right now.
Rahm rocks.
[Plus he was Aaron Sorkin's model for Josh Lyman on West Wing :) ]
June 9, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lautenberg will take it in November. Why give up seniority in the ruling party for a back of the bus seat with the GOPers?
June 9, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Lautenberg's races are always fairly close, yet he always prevails, and I can't imagine why this year would be any different.
Agree with optimo, let's hope the GOP spends lots of cash trying to pick up a seat in New England... while we challenge them in places like Texas and Alaska.
June 10, 2008 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would be very angry if they try to install Emanuel in Obama's seat. If Jackson is at all interested they should tap him. Of course, part of the problem is Rod Blagojevich; unless he's been indicted by then, and we can always hope, he'll have to be involved in the decision seeing as he appoints. I strongly disagree with Jackson over the Peotone airport (one of his pet projects) but on almost every other issue he'd be a top-notch senator for this state.
On Lautenberg, well, that's what you get for turning the Senate into a rest home. He'll probably get it but it will be a squeaker and it will be an unfortunate distraction in the fall.
June 9, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a feeling that a President Obama and Mayor Daley would be able to lean on the Governor more than Speaker Pelosi would. I expect that Mayor Daley would rather have a Senator Jackson away in Washington, rather than lurking about waiting to challenge him for mayor.
June 9, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Republican candidate is who?
June 9, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't matter in Illinois...I remember when Obama ran for the Senate the first time. There was no Republican to put up agaist him. They tried to recruit Mike Ditka, then it was gonna be Judy Barr Topenka (the head of the State GOP) and they settled on Alan Keys (he carpet bagged like Hillary). Just think, if Hillary had run for the Senate in Illinois after she left the white house, there may never have been a Barack Obama to run against... She'd be the nominee right now... I bet she regrets the whole "Life long New York Yankee fan" BS.
June 10, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted for Andrews in the primary because I thought he had a better chance to win the general election.
June 9, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is fantastic news! And no, I don't mean that like idiotic.
Hopefully the NRSC will think they have a legitimate shot here and dump a few million that they don't have into the very expensive NJ (meaning Philly & NYC) media market. They don't have a chance in hell to beat Lautenberg with a Beltway-ensconced lobbyist, regardless of what Dick Zimmer did 12 years ago.
June 9, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I used live in the district where Zimmer lost, thanks largely to gerrymandering, a squeaker to Congressman Rush Holt. His over-the-top anti-Clinton speech in the House during impeachment proceedings (i.e. "Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr") was what ruined him. I still remember Holt's brilliant ad campaign in 1998 featuring Zimmer's ridiculous song. I was only a high school senior back then.
He had many failed runs for different offices (two losses to Holt, one defeat in the NJ Senate election), but don't count him out yet because he is smart and extremely tenacious. In this match-up, I see the signs of an upset victory. Dems better work very hard or they will be in for a rude surprise in November. They need that filibuster proof majority for healthcare reform and pro-choice bloc in the Supreme Court.
June 9, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you have Zimmer confused with Mike Pappas, the one-term right-winger who got Zimmer's House seat in 1996 when Zimmer left to run for Senate the first time. Then that guy lost to Rush Holt in 1998, then Zimmer failed to beat Holt in a really close race in 2000.
June 9, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still remember....I was only a high school senior back then.
Memories, not what you think them to be...cf, Tuzla, George "Marchin' with Martin" Romney, etc.
(that is to say, neither Clinton nor Romney would have deliberately told such a dumb lie--they had really come to remember thusly)
June 10, 2008 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zimmer is one very bright cookie against a very old dinosauer; I'll vote for intelligence everytime.
June 10, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lautenberg is getting dotty and he's made some crackpot statements. He's 84 and a half. Too old. Time for some new blood.
June 10, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't imagine Lautenberg losing this race. It's true that polls have demonstrated certain voter concerns about his candidacy--primarily his age--but it can't be forgotten that there's going to be a choice on the ballot for the big race in '08. Since there's little disagreement that Obama will take New Jersey handily, Zimmer even coming close would require a substantial number (maybe 5-10% of voters) of split-party ballots, which is extremely unlikely to happen.
Lautenberg is hardly a perfect candidate. But if I were him I'd be much more worried if there weren't a Presidential election this year.
June 10, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As alluded to above, nj is to republicans what florida is to dems. A perpetual tease. Hopefully, the republicans will pour a ton of cash into nj. They will lose in the end. Too funny.
June 10, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
...strange prophecy since Obama can't win without the "perpetual tease," Florida.
June 10, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink