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Obama Camp Downplays Ohio and Florida As Must-Wins
In a sign that the Obama campaign's strategies will deviate significantly from Democratic campaigns of recent years, campaign manager David Plouffe is now indicating that two of the biggest swing states will not be considered must-wins by themselves, but only part of a comprehensive plan to compete in more states
Plouffe reportedly told the crowd at a fundraiser on Friday that Ohio and Florida would not be required for victory, though he certainly plans to compete there. "You have a lot of ways to get to 270," he later told the Associated Press. "Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th."
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Eric,
I'm not usually one to harp on perceived biases in reporting, but your headline pairs very poorly with the actual story. Obviously, the Obama camp saying "We don't need Ohio and Florida" is a far more incendiary and provocative statement than "You've got a lot of ways to get to 270".
While both may be true, one does not necessarily equal the other. And to record it as otherwise, without further elaboration, isn't a particularly honest move on your part.
June 16, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agree with this. The headline seriously distorts what was said.
June 16, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Erik was a Clinton supporter. So you'll see some sort of negative slant to Obama stories.
June 16, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. That was just my first impression. For some reason, Eric has a way of butchering headlines. I am glad you called him out on it.
June 16, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I had the exact same reaction to the headline -- I thought "Oh, no -- did someone from the Obama campaign actually say that?!" It has a very different feel than "the goal is not to be reliant on one state."
June 16, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since Hillary conceded this place has become a morgue.
They have to throw up cheap gotcha headlines like that to prime the pump.
June 16, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
While they are absolutely right about this - I certainly hope they fight hard for Ohio. Florida will be tough, but I truly believe Ohio is ready to go Democratic.
June 16, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. My bet is that, when all is said and done, Obama takes Ohio. He doesn't need Florida. And, of course, it's also true that he doesn't need Ohio or Florida if he takes Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. The point is, he's changing the map and creating the possibility of a transformative victory rather than a narrow one.
June 16, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is about time someone called these two states out on their self aggrandizement. Their self imposed importance has always baffled me. I am glad that all 50 states plus the DC are now equally important. Go Obama
June 16, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Th journos on this site are reading more and more like MSM journos each passing day. Trying for a tabloid like grabber, eh Eric?
June 16, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, pretty bad headline. He isn't saying "screw you, you purple assholes! Torment us no longer!"
He saying that they are organizing Virginia and North Carolina and Colorado and New Mexico so that even if they lose both Ohio and Florida(which they don't plan to) they can still win by cobbling a couple other states together.
I agree. If you have a money advantage, why wouldn't you try to play offense or at least try to headfake the opposition into wasting money?
June 16, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! It wasn't too long ago that McCain assured everyone that if he were the nominee, he could put California in play so let him waste his money while Obama is running up a delegate lead elsewhere. His strategy in the primaries in this regard payed massive dividends.
June 16, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, but I wish we could say "screw you, purple assholes, torment us no longer!!!" and I even live in Florida. But I have hope, saw a late 90's Silverado last week, toolbox in the back, working truck, with 5 Obama stickers on the back window and rear bumper. But Tallahassee is a blue oasis in the panhandle.
June 16, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
florida was never in play and Ohion is still in the single digits so he could win ohio. but lets face it Ohio isnt the most attractive state where they would vote for Obama and if you think about it old people are the ones that seem to buy into these smear tactics more and Ohio and Florida both have a hugh older population.
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/06/16/mccains-clayton-williams-problems/
June 16, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree, I think FL is in play. Check out the poll stats at www.fivethirtyeight.com. McCain has only been ahead by more than 10 points once since January and Quinnipiac has him ahead by only 4 points on 5/17. It's worth investing some serious campaigning.
June 16, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
This headline really, *really* needs to be changed. I angrily clicked my way to the article fearing that an Obama staffer had made a self-damaging snooty remark. Luckily, he hadn't really.
There's no excuse for this.
June 16, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The link appears broken to me - I get an error that the file is not found for the following URL:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/06/obama_camp_sees_possible_win_w.phpeepur.org/
June 16, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to pile on (and I'm not going to attribute motive), but the headline is misleading, especially as it appears on the home page: "Dems, We Don't Need Florida and Ohio." The "Downplays" on EC is better, but it still seems inaccurate. Dems Sees Lots of Ways to 270 might be better.
June 16, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or how about: "Obama Continuing 50 State Strategy for General Election Campaign"
June 16, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or even, "Demos: going for just 270 Electoral votes is thinking too small."
June 16, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, if you think the headline is poor here at TPM imagine how the remarks this guy made are going to play in the corporate media. I'd be far less concerned about word choice here on this site than I would be concerned with the wisdom of Mr. Plouffe discussing this issue publicly in any way.
It is simply foolish to discuss the nuances of electoral strategy anytime or anywhere you might be quoted precisely because your nuance will never make the headline. The very idea of discussing publicly how you win without essential states is foolish on it's face even in the context of not writing them off. This kind of mistake is typical of Democratic campaigns unused to the Presidential level. They are all so very full of themselves they can't keep from demonstrating to all how smart they are and how brilliantly they will approach the fall campaign. It happens every time on our side.
In contrast, even rotten campaigns for the Republicans like McCain's, rarely (if ever) are found expounding openly on strategic electoral considerations that are best left to internal discussion and debate. Everything the Republicans discuss publicly is very controlled and deliberate. Our side can never seem to resist the ego-gratifying spotlight. Such discussions on our side should cease. That's the best way to avoid misleading headlines here or elsewhere.
June 16, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I fully agree. Plouffe should just STFU so that nuts like Eric don't run off with their blatherings.
June 16, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
But they HAVE expounded on it. They even made a powerpoint presentation about what states they feel are in play and where they'll be allocating their resources. It's just that no one cares what McCain is planning on doing, because everyone realizes that Obama is dictating strategy and has a vision for his campaign that McCain can only pretend to have.
Relax. All he said was that there are a number of ways to get to the magic number. He said nothing about writing off any states. This is just what we get when you have blog and 24 hour cable networks looking for news. It's no big deal.
June 16, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a silly comment.
Everyone with a map and a list of EV values knows there are more than a few ways to 270. This is not an interesting or newsworthy comment, and it's hardly a "nuance of electoral strategy."
As for your claim that McCain's campaign hasn't publicly discussed electoral strategy, that's demonstrably false. In fact, just last week they released their full color-coded electoral strategy map, complete with designations at which states were, to borrow Eric's colorful brand of characterizations, "not needed," "taken for granted," and "important unlike those other crappy states that we hate."
Of course, back then, you didn't express your concern about the McCain team's raging egos. Funny that...
June 16, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
You obviously don't understand AND don't know what you're talking about. You seem to have drunk deeply of the Kool Aid and that's too bad. For those of us who haven't, we'll continue to observe what's going on without rose colored glasses.
June 16, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric aka Haphasard Clinton shill....will ALWAYS skew anti-Obama in his headlines, so expect it, until the powers that be remind him Hillary lost
and will not be the nom.
June 16, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - the title is terribly misleading. I clicked on the link from the main page thinking WTF is the Obama camp thinking, and then reading the actual post it was nothing like the link title indicated.
The jist of it is that they're not telling Florida and Ohio there are any less important, but telling the rest of the usually forgotten states that they are just as important.
June 16, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was there on Friday. Plouffe laid out several scenarios to get to 270; moreover, he was extremely gracious to HRC and her supporters.
He described several models showing how to get to 270, but my sense was that Plouffe was downplaying expectations throughout his talk.
June 16, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
States more likely to flip to the Democratic column than Florida:
Alaska
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
Virginia
North Carolina
June 16, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree with everyone saying that the headline is overly sensationalist and distorts what Plouffe is saying, this is something that I've honestly wondered about myself.
There are three major regional battlefields in play right now. You have the southern Atlantic coast with Virgina and North Carolina, the Southwest with Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, and the Great Lakes region with Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There are other battlegrounds on the map, but those are the three >major ones that'll make or break this election. With the news last week that some of Obama's top field organizers were going to Virginia, it made me wonder exactly what resources where going to be allocated to which regions.
To me, it just sounds like he's saying that they won't let what McCain does throw them off their game, which is to spread the board and win in non-traditional areas. They won't be baited into an all-or-nothing battle for Ohio/Florida.
June 16, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think they're going to make a play for them all, if only to spread McCain thin. The Dems have the natural environmental advantage this cycle, so the less concentrated they can keep McCain's efforts, the better.
The West, however, is where I see the most likely path to victory. Assuming Obama takes the Kerry states (very likely) as well as Iowa (also very likely), then he just needs two of the following three: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado. If it's New Mexico and Nevada, it goes to the House, and with modest gains in the House of Representatives, Obama would almost certainly have the votes he needs there.
With that said, if he totally collapses in the west, Kerry + Iowa + Virginia or Kerry + Iowa + Missouri also get him over 270.
Beyond that, obviously, Kerry + Florida (no Iowa) and Kerry + Ohio (no Iowa) work too.
Unless McCain marries Bill Clinton, there's no way he covers all those bases barring live boy/dead girl.
June 16, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is exactly what they intend to do and they will have the resources to do it. It worked well for them in the Primary, they expect it to work well in the General.
I'm anticipating he's going to exceed expectations and take over 300.
June 16, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that they're going for them all, but at some point you have to prioritize your resources. You can't just throw money at a problem and expect that to work (which is just one reason why Republicans fail at governing).
One thing that's become clear through the primaries is that Obama clearly recognizes the value of good people. I took the fact that not all of Obama's top people are being deployed to Ohio and Pennsylvania as a reassuring sign that the 50 State strategy isn't just lip service, but something they're actually planning on following through with.
June 16, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice headline. Not at all representative of the commentary from Plouffe. The author of this hatchet-job must be trolling for a gig with a Murdoch run outlet. This is way below TPM standards.
June 16, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice headline. Not at all representative of the commentary from Plouffe. The author of this hatchet-job must be trolling for a gig with a Murdoch run outlet. This is way below TPM standards.
June 16, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love what they said; don't love how it was restated and emphasized here.
I love the fact the their answer is: we will compete in all 50 states and we aren't depending on any one state to get us there.
What's wrong with that? It's a good answer.
June 16, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Colorado's looking good:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
June 16, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
thank you, for the headline change.
June 16, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
ok plouffe that was a rookie mistake and well mr tpm who is not sold on obama anyway just did the repugs job for them with that horrible headline....
go figure...
hrc was a hard one to beat and mccain will be even harder, so obama camp need not make such silly mistakes...keep strategy to yourself and just continue to kick ass..could you imagine if obama camp was stupid enough to let hrc learn early on that they will enact a 50 state strategy and compete heavily for caucuses? the end result may have been different..perhaps hill wouldnt have put all her eggs in the big states' baskets...
dumm mistake for sure...even though now that i think about it, it was probably part of the strategy to pressure mccain to spread his money thinner than it already is....who knows! obama camp tend to be full of wonderful surprises...i hope this one of them....
June 16, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric -- thanks for fixing the headline. This one is much more accurate and neutral.
Wish the Washington Post & NY Times were so responsive!
June 16, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
The best things for DEMS this year is that they don't have to win Ohio and Florida to win. That was the case in 2004 and we know how that ended.
Obama intends to compete everywhere which is a very good strategy....why sweat out the election based on two states not so friendly to him. He can win both especially Ohio but he can also win by picking up Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, etc.
The keys to this working of course a message (change, the economy, Iraq, and no more Bush), organization and resources. If the campaign and the DNC actually raise the projected 300 million that some are saying then making a play in all these states is totally possible and something that the GOP simply won't be able to match.
June 16, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, downplays is more accurate, Eric. Thanks.
This is why I hate the silly season - stuff like this gets reported as news. Not just here - everywhere. By the time November rolls around, who will remember this?
June 16, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like the strategy. Don't put your eggs into one basket. Spread everything around, and make McCain decide which states he wants to fight for.
June 16, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
See, I do too - in fact, I just love this response. It's so different than anything Kerry did or said.
Kerry ignored whole great big swaths of the country on the idea that they were impossible for us to win. I always did think that was a terrible mistake and it was. You can't count anything out - go ahead and fight for every single vote you can wring out of every single voter.
June 16, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
And it's the exact approach that they used in the Primary. No big secret, they're laying it all out there. Problem for McCain is - does he have the financial backing to counter this? Probably not.
June 16, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. This has always been their campaign strategy and it's working.
It worked for the DNC in '06.
It also worked for the Repugs for I don't know how many elections. The only person who ever made boutique campaigning work was Bill Clinton.
June 16, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
And he had the Perot factor working for him.
June 16, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perot really doesn't get enough credit with that.
June 16, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
snicker
June 16, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Florida will be tougher than Ohio simply cause its slightly more red and plus McCain is the type of republican that Floridians go for.. a 'moderate image'..
Ohio went blue in 2006.. its a blue state now and Obama will win it.. MI and PA he will carry by 5+ points
VA and FL will be close, although Obama has a lot of work to do in FL to play catchup cause a lot of people are mad at him (even though its not his fault the state moved the primary and screwed it up)
June 16, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good points. I think that expectations for this GE are still largely shaped by outcomes in recent elections. But, I believe that Obama is going to turn those expectations on their heads. I'm excited about the new polling data coming out and looking forward to more, more - particularly as we get deeper into some real campaign activity. The debates should make it real interesting.
June 16, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will fight for and will win Ohio.
Book it!
June 16, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think so too.
Not so sure of Florida, but - who knows? It's the middle of June. November is a lifetime away in campaign terms.
June 16, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well Lanny Davis has taken a job with Fox "News" -what a big ass surprise...not.
The biggest mistake Hillary Clinton made was in choosing her campaign staff.
June 16, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a very exciting election, indeed.
June 16, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go read the AP story in the link. It's hilarious. You can practically sense the pressure in Nedra Pickler's cranium building to explosive levels as she tries to process the alien concept of an election in which Florida and Ohio aren't the Alpha and Omega.
June 16, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really. Obama's changing things up. That means the journalists who are following the campaign might actually have to put some thought into this. Damn, this is hard.
June 16, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The anti-Obama headline conspiracy continues at that well known hub of Obama hatred, the Huffington Post. Its headline reads "Obama Campaign: We Could Win Without Florida, Ohio."
The shame! The bias! It's unbelievable! Hillary supporters will stop at nothing to tear down Obama in their mad scheme to put Hillary in the White House! Submit Eric's name and the name of the Hillary-supporting headline writer at the Huffington Post to the Committee for Public Safety!
June 16, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
O give it a rest.
Any journalist who can't take a little criticism is in the wrong profession.
That's what the goddamn political blogs were founded on.
June 16, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ya gotta admit, though, HuffPo luuuuuvs them some big sensionalistic over-the-top headlines.
June 16, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
HuffPo is tabloid journalism.
June 16, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
And internet commenters who can't take a little satire take themselves too seriously.
June 16, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
And internet commenters responding to internet commenters responding to internet commenters who can't take a little criticism take themselves too seriously!
June 16, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
And down the rabbit hole we go. :)
June 16, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did he "downplay" the significance of Florida and Ohio or play up the significance of other states - VA, NV, CO, MO, NC...etc
What Kleefeld and his Hillbillies have never understood - the Obama campaign never intended a rerun of 2000 2004
You can't change governance in a 50-50 country
June 16, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Plouffe reportedly told the crowd at a fundraiser on Friday that Ohio and Florida would not be required for victory,"
I'd say the headline accurately reflects Plouffe's reported statement.
There may be many ways to get to 270 for both candidates. Apparently there are now fewer for Obama.
June 16, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
mischaracterization is your strong point.
June 16, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's all he knows, poor thing.
June 16, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there are more than two ways to get to victory, there are more paths to victory.
Get it?
June 16, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
And lest we forget THE NEWS of the summer
McMentum's COMING!!!
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/200236.php
Joe now frontrunner for McVeep - GOP victory lies thru Darien
June 16, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink