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Obama Sends Key Staffer To Indiana -- Is State Really In Play?

Does the Obama campaign really believe Indiana is in play?

Team Obama has assigned one of its most valued campaign staffers to the state, reports the Indianapolis Star. The staffer, Emily Parcell, was political director for Obama in Iowa, where the Illinois Senator secured a huge win that essentially put him on the path to the nomination.

The Obama campaign says it shows they're taking the state seriously. However, as Taegan Goddard notes, political experts think that the Obama team doesn't really believe this and is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team.

The last two times Indiana went Democratic were during LBJ's 1964 landslide win and FDR's 1936 lopsided win. However, the Obama team is running a general election ad in the state -- the first Dem to do so in memory.

Ultimately this is really about the huge disparity in resources here. The Obama team can do more than merely say they believe they have a real shot at states like Indiana. They can afford to act like they believe it, too.


Late Update: A commenter below puts it well: "Is it really in play? We won't know without playing there. That's the whole point: only one way to find out." And they have the resources to find out -- that's the real key.


45 Comments

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What's with the headlines with questions that have obvious answers?

Yes, there will be scary groups (Republican and otherwise) gunning for Obama and the campaign was smart to foresee that.

Yes, Indiana is in play .... EVERY state is in play!

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is shitting a new Fort Knox worth of gold bricks!

Can they use those to pay for their campaign? THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS... etc.

Two words:

Chicagoland Media Market

Ok, that was three words.

Of course, it's in play. He's polling extremely well there. Basing projections on the performance of past candidates is, I believe, folly. Obama is an entirely different candidate - as is McCain. AND, this country has had to put up with 8 years of the Bush Administration.

Let me correct that: Obama is an entirely different candidate - UNLIKE McCain.

Er, Greg.... It's called The Fifty State Strategy. And it's called that cuz you play in 50 states, not 18.

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Oo, Jade - iz dat u? You iz lovely! Love your hair.

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Xactly! 50 states, baby!

"The Obama campaign says it shows they're taking the state seriously. However, as Taegan Goodard notes, political experts think that the Obama team doesn't really believe this and is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team."

Good thing the "political experts" don't make the decisions in this country reference elections. What I am reading out of the campaign are these simple mantras:

Obama: All over the map and strong on electoral offence. He's building his campaign in a similar manner that his primary campaign was built on. To steal a line from the Greatest: "Float Like a Butterfly, Sting Like a Bee."

McCain: Confusion. trying to tar Obama in the media and throwing everything they have at him, because they have determined theyc annot compete organizationally.

Personally, I believe McCain's "strategy" completely lacks of strategy, and are looking to create a predeliction to McCain amongst low-information voters. Obama is trying to create a wave of high information voters across the country at this point by building a significant organization everywhere he can.

Five months to the election: Is it enough time to build a nationwide organization, even withw hat has already taken place in the primaries? YES WE CAN!

Your observation that McCain appears to lack a strategy is right on. Operation Chaos is pretty much it for them and it's just making them look real bad - like incompetents. They make feeble, tired, recycled attacks on Obama - Obama reaches out and slaps them down. They get weaker and he grows stronger. It's gonna be a fun summer!

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Is it really in play? We won't know without playing there. That's the whole point: only one way to find out.

Of course it is in play, GEORGIA is in play, ALASKA is in play, are you kidding me? Why wouldn't Indiana be in play?? The last poll from there, from April, had Obama only down by 8%. If it is anything like the other polls it has likely went up considerably since then. If I had to guess I'd say they are tied there now, more or less. So of course it is in play and of course they are going to focus on it.

Hell, put Richardson on the ticket and TEXAS will be in play. Hell, it will probably be uncomfortably close for McCain anyway. Every state is in play as far as I'm concerned.

Well, maybe not a couple, but he should still have SOME presence there, it is about building a base for the future, not just this election, and Obama is likely to have the fundraising to do it, so we should run hard in 50 states, because even if we don't have a chance of winning all of them, it will plant seeds for the future, and we'll be thanking Obama and Dean down the road when those seeds blossom.

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Absolutely yes!

We are an Hispanic majority state and they vote Democratic.

They voted for Hillary in the primary - but they'll switch to Obama in the general - for the most part, anyway.

No one mentions Texas as being in play - but we were trending back to the blue so startingly after the '06 election that the optimists among us began to think we might be in play.

And we might.

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15 paid staffers pledged to Texas by the Obama campaign:

Burntorangereport

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Woo Hoo!

He's got plenty of support of Taos. But this is Taos, where even the people who live in their cars out in the desert on the edge of town hate Bush and can talk to you in a very informed way about just why they hate Bush and why they want our Constitutional rights back.

LOL!

Yep, Obama is already getting more Latino support than Kerry did, and he is kicking McCain's ass in that demographic, but I really think putting Richardson on the ticket (for that, and other reasons like his resume and character) would seal the deal, and maybe even win us a Senate seat there as well.

You are right, no one really discusses it as a swing state, but it really is.

You know, Tena, I would have thought as little as three months ago that you were nuts if I heard you say this, but now I am really excited about the prospect of us competing down there. I just hope that the poor folks you have canvassing for voter registration (a necessary pre-requisite if we are going to flip the state blue) are well hydrated and lathered up in sunscreen. I find it hot up here as I go door to door, and I am sure that Missouri is nothing compared to your neck of the woods.

Actually, SUSA's April 29 poll had him up by 1 point:

www.fivethirtyeight.com

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All 50 states - just keep campaigning in all 50 states, Obama.

Watch the blue spread -

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... political experts think that the Obama team ... is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team.

They'd better hurry up.  What's left of McSame's mind is deteriorating fast.

Think that's just snark?  Well, in large part yes, but check this posting out.

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Wow. There's definitely been a decline in vigor and strength.

Good catch.

Could be in play if Evan Bayh is chosen for VP.

Maybe that's why Obama campaign is sending one of their top guys.

Would Obama "waste" the valuable skills of a key staffer just to head fake the McCain campaign? If McCain wants to see whether or not Indiana is truly in play, he has to only do a couple rounds of internal polling.

If Obama were feigning competitiveness in Indiana (or just wanted to test the waters), he would have just aired ads and not sent a staffer.

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Interesting turn of events.

McCain is going to have his hands full, dealing with the putative 50 state strategy of Obama.

Did anyone else see those eye-popping numbers in this morning's NY Times? Particularly the amount of money on hand each campaign has for the general election, as of April?

Obama 8 million. McCain: 21,000+ !!@#$!!!!

The whole midwest could be Obama's!
Recall the fake Mickey Kantor video before the IN primary...their exit polling in 1992 was showing Clinton doing well there, even though he did lose the state. Fast forward 16 years later, it appears that Indiana is really in play for a Dem for the first time since 1964.

I love the name. :)

Thanks for noticing!

Alas, it will become stale after the next 25 million smears thrown at Obama.

Well, Bayh was somewhere on the potential veep list. If he's not been written off yet, I don't imagine the state would be, either.

Good point Pauler. I have had a hunch the last two weeks that Evan Bayh indeed could be Obama's VP pick. If so Indiana would definitely be a competitive state.

The latest polling done in the state was in late April before the primary. McCain led 51%-43% in one poll, while Obama led 49%-41% in another. Obama devoted millions of dollars and weeks of campaigning to Indiana and came this close to winning the primary there.

So I do believe they see Indiana as a potential pickup. Here are some other factors in favor of this.

1-Next to Illinois, Chicago media market covers NW Indiana.
2-Obama is performing very well in the Midwest so why wouldn't he target Midwestern state IN?
3-The large student populations in the state give him a great volunteer base....troops on the ground.

I see no reason why he would not target Indiana while chossing to target tougher red states like GA and NC in the GOP dominated South.

I think Obama realizes he has to "play" in every state. Even if he doesn't prevail, his effort within each state will have an effect on downticket races. If ever a candidate had coattails, if ever a candidate brought new voters to the polls, this is that candidate. And I think Sen. Obama is aware of this fact, hence every state is in play.

What a snarky headline. Typical of effing TPMEC.

Greg, Did you think record voter turn-out through out the primaries in all states happened by magic ?

Well, may be it was magic - called Obamagic.

Obama is in the process of zerging the McCain campaign all across the electoral map. Which is pretty amazing considering McCain had a 2 1/2 month head start.

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Thus the advantage to having a candidate who isn't 867 years old.

Obama can move fast. McLame is - well, - lame. ;)

Hah, Zerging! Now I remember why I nearly failed my senior year of college.

Lookie, Barack is attacking McBush's minerals!

Obama to McCain: I'm in your states, registering your d00ds!

McCain to Obama: What?

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"Obama to McCain: I'm in your states, registering your d00ds!"

You wanna know how hard I'm laughing? One of the bolts holding together my sanity just gave.

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There's another reason that Obama is in Indiana - to strengthen his hand in Michigan, Ohio, and Kentucky.

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Sorry for not adding this, but remember, McCain only has a 52% vs 48% satisfication rate among Republicans.

You bet Indiana is in play. Any state that is primarily within a 5-6 hour drive from northern IL is in play. Obama literally has an army of people to swarm the surrounding area with GOTV and canvassing efforts. This is why in every single primary for these states (MN, WI, MO, IN) he did substantially better than any of the polls predicted.
Not to mention a good chunk of IN is in the Chicago media market where there is some serious Obama love these days.

I canvassed there during the primary and spoke to several republican leaning independents who were clearly voting for a democrat this year - and were deciding which one to support in the primary. I think it is really in play.

Here in Tippecanoe County, Indiana (home of Purdue Univ.) we had a turnout of about 35 at our first grassroots meeting last week. Already, a great plan is in motion for a daylong GOTV/voter registration music festival here in the Fall (once our 39,000 students return to campus).
So I can't speak for all of Indiana but I think this part of Indiana really has a fire in its belly. I'm so glad to hear the Obama campaign wants to amplify our voices!

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And if they plan to name Evan Bayh as Veep candidate, would it be in play.

I have a hunch that despite the psyche that Obamas 50 state strategy might have on McCain, it will be fruitless. And Obama will have spent tons of $ there.

Some things (states) don't change despite Obama's aggressive ground game. He thought he could do that in Ohio, and Hillary smoked him by 10 and outspent her 3:1. Buying votes sometimes doesn't.

I doubt Indiana is going blue. Its like someone said, a mind game, poker style. I believe its called a bluff.

I always contended that McCain can't out distance Obama, with youth and vigor. He really is not up for the gruel of Obama's ground game, even if it is kabuki

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