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Obama Campaign Sending Their Star Iowa Organizer Into Virginia
Here's as good an indication as any that the Obama campaign is dead serious about trying to put Virginia in play.
The campaign says that they're sending Mitch Stewart, one of Obama's star organizers, into the state to serve as Virginia's state director. This is no small thing. Stewart served as Obama's Iowa caucus director, where he was in charge of the whole field effort, pulling off a major coup and helping deliver the victory that essentially put Obama on track to victory.
Stewart served as Tom Daschle's field director in 2004 and was regional director for John Edwards in Iowa in 2003.
Virginia will be a very interesting state to watch this fall.
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As a Virginian, I'm readying myself for disappointment--I was optimistic in 2004 and Kerry lost by 5 percent or more. But then, we have since elected another Democratic governor and Webb as a Democratic senator. Where I live, the right-wingers are in full force in the letters to the editors page.
Perhaps organization is the key, though, and this will turn the tide--I'll stay a hopemonger, but realistic at the same time.
June 13, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
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June 13, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
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June 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unlike Obama, Kerry never made a serious play for Virginia or NC. And so much has changed since 2004, particularly that no one is excited about McCain's candidacy.
June 13, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have to admit, Kerry never made a real effort there. I think he visited twice, and nothing real toward the end. He pretty much gave up on VA, MO, IA and even NM.
June 13, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, Mark Warner will be kicking ass in the Senate race, too, and Connolly will be winning Tom Davis' CD in NoVa. It's a good year to be a Dem in Va.
June 13, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
STEW-DOG!!!!!
June 13, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Ace" Smith was Hillary's ace organizer. I assume he's available. Despite the fact that he received glowing and, for that I reason, I suspect somewhat exaggerated reviews in the press, he is pretty sharp and looking for work I assume
June 13, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm across the river in DC, but I plan on doing whatever I can to help Obama take VA in November. I think Mark Warner's Senate run is going to be a huge help. Think about it: You'll have an extremely popular ex-Governor with a 80% approval rating campaigning exclusively in the state and singing Obama's praises the entire time. Everyone talks about Webb, but forgets that Warner is a far more popular figure throughout the state, whereas Webb counted on massive support from Northern Virginia (basically the DC suburbs for all you unfamiliar with the area).
This is one endorsement that will actually pay dividends. I personally think Obama's going to take VA by at least 4 points in Nov.
June 13, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pardon the grammatically challenged post above.
June 13, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm perfectly happy to deal with grammar issues in return for hearing great news about Virginia! :) Thanks for your work on the campaign!
June 13, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
The interesting thing about Webb is that for all of the talk about him being the solution to Obama's "working class white" problem if he was the running mate, he seems to have the same voting bloc as Obama.
June 13, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Webb didn't stand a chance with the exurban and rural vote with Allen on the ticket. I don't know how he would do if he were up against someone less well-known or less of a cowboy.
Warner is adored in many of the traditional R places in Virginia because of his significant economic outreach there. Above all else, the guy is an entrepreneur.
Obama can win Virginia, just as Webb did, but it will take serious effort. Kerry actually came closer than I thought he would. Also, please don't forget, Virginia elected Doug Wilder first as lt. gov. and then gov. I will never forget listening to the swearing in and Justice Lewis Powell stating at the end, "This is a great day for Virginia."
June 13, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may be another little clue that he's looking to VA for his VP. I suspect it really will turn out to be Warner.
June 13, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect you're onto something here. I think Warner would be an interesting choice for veep. This guy is political gold. He's an extremely successful self-made businessman, having made millions in the telecomm industry. He's got an extremely strong reputation as a moderate, bipartisan leader as governor and is smooth as hell. Just to give you an example: Back in 2002 this guy managed to convince the Republican dominated state legislature to raise taxes to cover a massive budget shortfall. Not only did he pull it off, he was able to do so in a way that saw his approval ratings GO UP!!! He's also very gifted at attracting rural voters because he doesn't sound like a condescending liberal when stumping.
Of course, this raises an interesting question of whether or not he's more valuable as a Senate candidate than VP. As a Senate candidate who's virtually guaranteed a win in November, he can afford to stump for Obama big time and concentrate all his efforts here.
June 13, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Warner has extraordinary appeal. He's my pick for VP.
June 13, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back when he was still mulling a presidential run, I was all for Warner. Had the choice been between him and Obama, I would have had a real hard time deciding, but would have been delighted with either. I think he'd make a very good choice for VP, but can't decide if he's more valuable running for Senate.
June 13, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only question, to me, is whether he's the single best VP pick for Obama. If that's the case, then potentially losing a senate seat is easily worth it. Democrats need to win the presidency first.
June 13, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Warner explicitly said at the state convention on Saturday that he has not sought and will not accept any other opportunity. I know everyone denies they're interested in the VP spot until it's offered, but that statement was very explicit.
I think he'd be a great pick, too, but after hearing him on Saturday, I don't think it's going to happen.
June 16, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He pretty much gave up on VA, MO, IA and even NM."
You're being much too kind about the Kerry campaign strategy. It seemed like he gave up on all 50 by November (How could a campaign NOT publicly reject the premise of a Bin Laden endorsement? Or keep the "I'm not Bush / I'm a Vietnam War hero" message long after people wanted to know more?)
June 13, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think you can compare Obama's organization in any state to Kerry's. In 2004, in my small county in Pa., there was storefront rented out in the fall as the Democratic HQ. This was run by the county Democrats as was erratically staffed. I made several stops just to get a sign, and there was no one there. (I ended up going to someone's house who had a cache of signs.)
Compare, the office in our county is ready to open momentarily -- and it's just June! We'll have 7 staffers from the national campaign in July, 2 in August, and 7 Sept onto the election! This is in addition to the local Obama group.
Night and day compared to '04.
June 13, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a fan of Warner for VP -- I think he ends up being the best choice of many plausible possibilities (Kaine being another).
But one downside obviously is losing Warner's massive advantage against Gilmore in the Senate race.
It occurs to me that Warner, who should have an enormous lead in his own race, may be able to spend much of his energy promoting Obama in VA even if he's not the veep choice. And the R's will have to spend a ton of money in a pretty expensive state to try to hold on. Should be fun.
June 13, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The dedmogrtaphics in VA have changed over the last 5 yers -- the immigrant population, especially hispanic (which strongly favors Obama at this point) is the single largest rising demographic in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and is making Northern Virginia even bluer than it has been in the past (relative to the rest of the Commonwealth). That's why Tom Davis retired (rather than face a humilating and defeat that might tank his loftier future ambitions) in November.
Obama will win VA much more easily than is popularly appreciated. Mark Warner and Jim webb will help, but don't be surprised if a few GOP bigwigs defect to Obama . . . it's that kind of state. I would expect John Warner's support of Jim Gilmore and John McCain to be tepid at best -- if he doesn't flip outright to Mark Warner and Barack Obama. That would be incredible, and its not completely absurd (which is startling).
June 13, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're certainly hoping for an Obama victory in VA and we'll be pulling out all the stops up here in NVA to make it happen.
June 13, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Im kind of starting to think this is just a strategy that the obama campaign used against clinton. Obama's campaign made it look as though he could win in places like California and Pensylvannia by sending Obama there. Thus making Clinton compete and spend more money there and I think thats what they are going to do in virginia against mccain. Its a good strategy because Clinton didn't have that much money going into indiana and McCain already doesn't have that much money to begin with.
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June 14, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink