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New Poll Gives McCain The Lead In Florida
A new Rasmussen poll of Florida finds John McCain with a decent lead over Barack Obama in this big swing state. The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 39%, with a ±4% margin of error.
This is contrary to a Quinnipiac poll from yesterday, which gave Obama a 47%-43 lead here, making the reality of the situation ambiguous. Obama's campaign has downplayed Florida as a must-win state, though they do plan to actively contest it. If they were able to win it, then a victory would become exceedingly difficult for John McCain.
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Obama to opt out of public financing today!
June 19, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
At some point there needs to be an analysis of the turnout models assumed by the polling firms. All indications are that the turnout is going to be very different this year--is that being taken into account? The numbers are only as good as the turnout model. That's how the pollsters got burned in 2004.
June 19, 2008 8:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rassmussen seems a LITTLE biased with this question/comment:
I don't know of ANYONE who believes that offshore drilling would bring down the price of oil in the near term (less than 10 years) and who believes any reduction in price will meaningful. Frankly this is pretty damn pathetic for a supposedly reputable outfit like Rassmussen.
June 19, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I noticed that too - I didn't know if that meant that they TOLD those surveyed it would bring down the price of gas, or if they told them he favored offshore drilling and those surveyed said it would bring down the price. Confused.
Look, I never counted on Florida, but I think it's clear that it's a battleground state. McCain desperately needs to consider it safe territory so he can spread investments elsewhere, but he's going to have to fight for it.
June 19, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would have to be the former, otherwise the poll would be worth less than spit. Here's a McClatchy article backing up the notion that there is no short-term relief from McCain's scheme:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/41379.html
June 19, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, since a major factor pushing the increase in the price of oil is the result of commodity speculation, any lift on the offshore drilling ban will immediately impact 10 and 15 year futures trading. This would also impact current prices.
June 19, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on what you mean by "impact." 10 cents a barrel 10 years from now, maybe. I wouldn't define that as an "impact." I would call it meaningless. Big oil will be dancing in the streets though.
June 19, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently the ocean drilling ships aren't available for the next 5 years. So make it fifteen years. And assuming that California and Florida agreed and all of the oil was marketable, the world oil price would be reduced by 10, you would still need to discount that impact. Assuming a 7 percent discount rate and you get a price per barrel of: $136.83 (versus current trading of 136.86. That's if my math is right.
In short, it will have NO MEANINGFUL IMPACT. Even the Wall Street Journal agrees.
June 19, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
This will also have an impact:
"House Democrats call for nationalization of refineries"...and y'all call us Fascists...
June 19, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only comment I agree with when it comes to off shore drilling is this, "as soon as OPEC sees we are CONSIDERING the drilling for our OWN oil and using our OWN resources, prices will drop dramatically"
It's sort of like the way health insurance companies are acting right now. They know if Obama wins in November, THEY will LOSE big time. So now we'll start seeing commercials offering CHEAPER insurance rates/policies.
June 19, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nahh, they know that we don't have enough oil to have an impact one way or the other on global supply and prices. What would freak them out is if we started mass producing the honda hydrogen car and building hydrogen stations all over the place. That would freak them the f*ck out and you'd see them pumping oil like crazy to lower the price of crude. But then it would be too late. Screw-em.
June 19, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you own a Honda Hydro?
June 19, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not yet, but I'm dying to get one. Look them up on the net. Fascinating vehicle. They emit water vapor as exhaust and run on hydrogen fuel cells. Fascinating.
June 19, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hydrogen fuel is just a shell game. There are no hydrogen mines that we can tap to supply the hydrogen for the fuel cells. The way that we get hydrogen is by electrolyzing water, which requires electricity. Where do we get the electricity? Coal, oil, natural gas or nuclear (mostly coal). In other words, you are not cutting down on the hydrocarbons burned or the pollution emitted. You are simply moving the act of generating that pollution from your car to somewhere else.
June 19, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think that's true at all. The fact that (1) California and Florida will likely say NO to any offshore drilling and (2) the amounts of oil expected to be retrieved and brought to market will have an insignificant impact on the supply, means that OPEC will not be too concerned about this at all.
As for your comment about Obama's health insurance and health insurers. The government's ability to affect the "supply" of the domestic insurance market is far greater than the affect our offshore drilling supply will have on the international oil market.
June 19, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Then there's nothing wrong with lifting the ban and allowing the states to decide...since CA and FL will say no anyway...right?
June 19, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ratsmussen sucks as a polling organization. Total right-wing tilt. I would say that the quin poll is probably more accurate than ratsmussen's. Good thing though, hope it gives mcbush a false sense of security.
The off-shore drilling question was totally bs and ambiguous. I had to read it three times to figure out wtf they were asking. A simple question would be something like this "Do you favor off-shore drilling off the coast of florida?" Answer: Hell no! 75 to 25. What a bunch of crap. I can't stand ratsmussen.
June 19, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is probably more realistic at this point. He hasn't spent any real time there. Hopefully, by contesting it Obama can keep it close and force McCain to spend time in the state.
Bizarrely, they said his lead INCREASED when voters were told about McCain's offshore drilling position. We'll see if that's real.
June 19, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of folks trust Rasmussen but his polls always seem to have a more rightward tilt then others. Of course, sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong, just like other polling outfits.
Scott Rasmussen, by the way, is a right-wing, Christianist. He lives in my town. There is no doubt about where his political loyalties lie...and I think that these loyalties can, in certain cases, lead him to model his polls with a bit of right-wing/conservative advantage.
June 19, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also he does robo-calling during the day for his polls. Who's home during the day? Elderly and retired people generally, or people independently wealthy. Also, when he gets a hit with someone willing to talk to the robot, he keeps calling them back. His polls really are crap.
Also, look at that question on the off-shore drilling. It is totally slanted to avoid the implication of the not in my back yard syndrome and assumes that the little oil extracted will have any impact on prices, which it won't. Pathetic. Can't stand ratsmussen.
June 19, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
All those poor disenfranchised unemployed Bush haters are home during the day too...right?
June 19, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, ratsmussen makes sure not to call them. They only make calls in the rich areas.
June 19, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dat lefty-wing commie-symp Wall Street Journal be disagreein wid ya.
Dammed Aussie-controlled furriners nose-leedin us thru hoopsies wid concentrated media flim-flammery.
June 19, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quinnipiac polled 1,453 Florida voters, almost three times Rasmussen's 500 Florida voters. The Quinnipiac poll had a 2.6 MOE compared to the Rasmussen poll's 4.5 MOE.
Eric should have pointed this out in his post, because that puts the two polls into a perspective which rightly offers some doubt about whether McCain really did achieve a big swing from one poll to another.
It also seems that the Rasmussen question about off shore drilling was a sort of narrowing that could be likened to a push poll or dog whistle. Rasmussen was capitalizing on anxiety about gas prices concurrent with a lack of information yet available about the inability of the drilling to affect gas prices for years to come. On this latter point, Obama can do what he does best, lay out the truth for the voters.
June 19, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Although I agree with everyone questioning the veracity of Rasmussen's polls, these results are actually a relief to me. The polls so far have almost been too good. Some less favorable poll numbers might worry some, but there'll be less chance that people will get overconfident and tune out or stop contributing. The way I see it, these numbers, whether you trust them or not, are not such a bad thing for Obama supporters to see right now.
June 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was actually polled by Rasmussen a few years ago when Tim Kaine was running against Kilgore for governor of Virginia. Beleive me, the poll's language was extremely biased and spun in Kilgore's favor, specifically in its reference to taxes. Rasmussen is a right-wing, Fox News polling outfit. I would not trust it for a nanosecond.
June 19, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having lived in Florida (quite a while ago), I am positive that Obama will not carry FL (unless he wins nationally by 7 or more).
With its voting blocks of older white women, Jews, Republican-leaning Cubans, military households, and rednecks, FL is not Obama territory.
McCain probably hopes Obama is lured into spending a lot of resources in FL.
June 19, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink