For Hillary, Montana And South Dakota Are Too Little, Too Late
Here's a bit of irony for Hillary Clinton: On the night when she lost the race for the Democratic nomination, she also won the pledged delegate race for the final two states, according to NBC News.
The current split: Hillary wins South Dakota by nine delegates to Obama's six, and in Montana it's eight for Obama, seven for Hillary and one still up in the air. The total: Hillary 16, Obama 14, one unallocated.
In the popular vote race, for what it's worth, Obama actually got a slight boost tonight. Hillary won South Dakota by a margin of just over 10,000 votes, but Obama currently leads in Montana by over 27,000 votes. This owes mainly to the much higher turnout in Montana -- indeed, Obama's vote total there alone is more than the combined total for both candidates in South Dakota.
With the primaries now all over with, Hillary will only lead in the total popular vote by throwing Michigan into the mix and without allocating most of the "Uncommitted" vote there to Obama, or by disregarding the estimated vote totals from four caucus states (Iowa, Nevada, Washington state and Maine) that did not report the numbers directly.















VP picking time:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia
Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware
Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico (likely cabinet members)
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina (likely cabinet members)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (likely cabinet members)
June 4, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, Edwards would be great for name recognition and energy - and for his experience as a campaigner. He has done best on the recent Pres/VP combined-ticket polls.
Richardson would be excellent strategically, geographically and demographically. He could - dare we say it? - even put Texas into play.
I doubt Gore would be interested, as he's been there and done that to be sure.
June 4, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just a thought...
June 4, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aside from the war, Hagel's nowhere near Barack on the issues. He shouldn't/isn't going to be veep. Maybe a cabinet post, though.
June 4, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. They don't bring a lot in terms of helping us in states where we're weak, but they go a long way on the foreign policy cred/older steady hand.
Plus, Dodd would be great at the VP candidate's traditional job of tearing the opposing candidate a new one in terms the presidential candidate can't use.
Sebelius, unfortunately, doesn't seem to do anything for us in Kansas and, in fact, according to that SUSA sweep last week, looks to be the only nominee who drags Obama's numbers down significantly in key states. I'm wondering if that's not due to some sense on the part of the Clintonista diehards that giving the VP slot to any other woman is a slap in Hillary's face. (But then, there isn't much that they don't perceive that way, is there?)
June 4, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have Mark Warner in there (former VA Governor). He's my first choice for VP.
June 4, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hagel gets a big "hell fuck NO" from me.
Why? Because he's a Republican, and a pretty damn conservative one (on pretty much everything but the war) at that. Are we really ready to send the message that we can't find a qualified Democrat for the job, so we have to go poach the other side of the aisle?
I don't think so. It makes the Democrats look weak, and we'd be giving the GOP an unprecedented head start in 2016. Not worth carrying Nebraska, IMO.
June 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
People keep floating Webb's name as Veep. But as far as I can tell today, he has yet to evem endorse Obama even though Obama campaigned for him. I think that makes him a less likely choice.
June 4, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope that there will be no more talk of the "popular vote". This was a sham to begin as it does not reflect the (often convoluted) nature of the primary/caucus system. The constant rehashing of this meme by the Clinton campaign only lowers the level of their discourse further (as if that were possible).
June 4, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Jeralyn on TalkLeft is still pimping that line, but she's, you know, deranged. I still don't get how bloggers that, just a few weeks ago, I thought of as reasonable people just completely lost it and were willing to change rules, break rules, and basically lie, cheat and steal on behalf of the candidate they preferred. And I include Jerome at MYDD in that category as well. It's been an eye-opening experience to say the least.
June 4, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
It could go lower. I'm truly waiting for her to say that God told her that He wants her to be President.
June 4, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
A point about South Dakota. This victory was engineered by the amazing Nick Clemons, the amazing GOTC near genius who won every election he managed for Senator Clemons, starting with NH. Senator Obama should make this Granite Stater one of his first hirers! If there had been more Nick Clemons and less Mark Penns in this race, Senator Clinton would have been our nominee.
June 4, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!
~
June 4, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I musy have been asleep (Up way to late last night) when I wrote my post
I meant GOTV for Senator Clinton. It is a great tiredness though!
June 4, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good Morning Eric.
Of the posts including last night's on this site, there are 3 about John McCain, 2 about Clinton and Obama, EIGHT about Hillary Clinton, and only 3 about the PRESUMPTIVE DEMOCRATIC OBAMINEE. Please do not fall into the Clinton's ongoing trap about this beinng all about them. That is why they lost in the first place and for the media to continue the charade about popular vote, or "she won the important states" like Puerto Rico and South Dakota, is as delusional as the Clintons themselves.
Last night was a historic night, and it had very little to do with Senator Clinton. A focus on Senator Obama, HIS next steps in the campaign, HIS agenda for the Democratic Party, and HIS choices for a VP candidate are more in order than further post-mortems, and coulda-shoulda-wouldas regarding Senator Clinton.
June 4, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just my opinion, but it seems to me that number of posts about a particular candidate on TPM on a given day isn't really going to have much effect on the outcome of this election or the nominating process.
June 4, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, true. But, it does effect the tone of the discourse on this site. And I'd really like for it to be more on point and constructive.
June 4, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Hillary will only lead in the total popular vote by throwing Michigan into the mix and without allocating most of the "Uncommitted" vote there to Obama, or by disregarding the estimated vote totals from four caucus states (Iowa, Nevada, Washington state and Maine) that did not report the numbers directly."
Translation -- she doesn't lead by any measurement whatsoever.
June 4, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, it's a fallacy that she "won" the popular vote.
The thing that got me was last night, even after losing the nomination, she still repeated this bullshit. Which shows either: 1) just how pathological their lying is; 2) that they have completely deluded themselves and are now truly living in an alternative universe; or 3) their contempt for our intelligence knows no bounds.
I know Obama supporters are supposed to be magnanimous in victory, but it's hard to tolerate the continued spreading of bullshit even after it doesn't matter anymore.
Yes, she should have the time she needs to leave on her own terms. But she should stop the bullshit.
June 4, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ironic that finally, after 48 contests, HRC's campaign finally figured out that this is about DELEGATES. Congrats, morons, to finally figure that out. Obama won more popular votes last night, but HRC got more delegates? NO FAIR! Oh, wait, completely fair. So, well done, HRC team. Glad you finally realized how to play the game. I guess you can learn after all. Just ridiciulously slowly.
Laughable, in its irony.
June 4, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yet she still keeps spouting the same lies to her supporters and the media. Hm...
June 4, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is a testament to Clinton's media savvy that people still keep talking about "total popular vote" in a primary process. You correctly note many of the caveats on what would need to count or be ignored to give her the lead. But the elephant in the room here is that if anyone thought "total popular vote" had meaning before the nomination process, no states would hold caucuses, and most states would opt for open primaries to increase turnout, and therefore influence. The whole point of counting delegates is that they are allocated relative to state population (and past support for Democrats with a bonus for going later in the process), which puts different contests on an equal footing. Anything else is comparing apples and cherries.
At best we can guess what results might have been had caucus states held primaries instead, but it's safe to say that while Obama's percentage margins would decline, perhaps quite a bit, his lead totals would go up because primary turnout is much higher than caucus turnout.
The popular vote remains a myth put forward by one campaign to make it appear more competitive than it actually is. And they should be called out on this more often.
June 4, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade numbers this morning have Obama with a higher percentage among Democrats than McCain among Republicans; and Hillary is down there in Giuliani territory.
June 4, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please keep in mind that as these primaries played out, Obama had already gone into General Election mode after Ohio and Texas ensured that there was no way that Clinton could catch him.
As the Clinton campaign went into the "kitchen sink" strategy, going negative over Rezko, Wright, Ayers etc. please notice that the Obama campaign never mentioned Norman Hsu, Denise Rich, Rose Law records, the Bill Clinton foreign investor connections and terrorist Pardons etc. All things that the Republicans would have used. Instead Obama, knowing that he'd need to bring in Clinton supporters, took the negative hits without returning them. If he had played it like the Clinton campaign, she would not have run off anything close to this string of victories.
He does not have to play nice like this with the McCain campaign and if McCain goes negative expect Obama to respond in kind, neutralizing the negative benefit.
June 4, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning, everyone.
Some great reactions about Clinton's speech via Andrew Sullivan
Fallows:
You HAVE LOST the nomination. There are NO MORE primaries. And you're urging your supporters to nurse their bitter feelings on your web site, and keep selling their bikes to give you money that you'll spend on... what? The unseemliness -- and, yes, destructiveness -- of this is too obvious to mention, though perhaps not obvious enough to have occurred to you.
This is a new low.
Noam Scheiber:
So she's going to leave it to her voters to decide whether she should accept defeat after having, you know, lost? What if every losing candidate left it to their supporters to decide whether or not to accept the outcome of a race? Who would ever accept defeat?
What good could possibly come of this?
With Hillary proclaiming herself the legitimate winner, they're clearly going to say "keep going." If she actually does keep going, that's a disaster for the Democratic Party. And if she doesn't, you've just drawn a ton of attention to the fact that a large chunk of the party doesn't accept Obama as the legimiate nominee. No, worse: you've encouraged them to think that, then drawn attention to it.
Jonathan Chait:
I don't know what the fallout will be, but at minimum, I'd say that anybody on her staff who cares about their party has a moral obligation to publicly quit and endorse Obama.
Isaac Chotiner:
If Clinton wants people to believe that she cares more about the Democratic Party than her own career, she is failing badly.
Brendan Loy:
Hillary Clinton had one last chance, tonight, to exit the stage with dignity. She missed it.
JPod:
You don’t get psychodrama like this very often. It’s like political reality TV.
June 4, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to the Green Papers it's 8-7 Clinton in SD and 9-7 Obama in Montana. I don't know where NBC's numbers came from because it would take a blowout (about 61-39) to get a 9-6 split in SD. Not that it really matters.
June 4, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Real Clear Politics also has SD pledged delegates split 7 and 8.
June 4, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton can only claim the popular vote by not counting voters in MI, IA, WA, NV and ME.
Clearly, she had room not to concede the nomination last night.
But Senator Clinton had no right to claim the popular vote. The media should not allow her to make that claim unchallenged.
This isn't a matter of confusion in the flow of events. Clinton's popular vote claim is deliberate and political.
Super Delegates and the public must know that Barack Obama won this hard-fought contest for delegates by every relevant measure. Pledged and Super Delegates. States. and the Popular Vote.
June 4, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at RCP, it appears that in many ways, Senator Clinton and supporters can claim to have won the popular vote. (PS, I'm glad Obama won, I'm just trying to be fair here)
>> Clinton can only claim the popular vote by not counting voters in MI, IA, WA, NV and ME.
This doesn't seem correct. Clinton wins if you count MI . . . we only have estimates for the other states . . . so actual countable votes cast . . . Clinton wins. If ALL uncommitted MI votes would actually have gone to Obama (highly unlikely) and we include all ESTIMATED votes for IA,WA,NV,and ME (and if those estimates are correct) then Obama could claim to have won the popular vote. Of course, if we ignore the popular vote in MI, then Obama wins.
In terms of actual, countable individual votes cast, from what I can see, it looks like Clinton did win the countable popular vote, with actual full totals uncertain, perhaps even the totals with the estimates from the other states (if Obama wouldn't get every single one of the Michigan uncommitted - we'll never really know). Anyway, who really cares . . . it's like Bush and Gore . . . doesn't really matter who actually got the most votes.
I am glad she stayed in though. I really wish Edwards and the others had stayed in also. I hate this idea that we all have to gather around pampering and kowtowing to one person as early as possible (makes us seem so unsophisticated). People with differing views need to have someone to vote for, and hopefully the added competition strengthens the resolve of the eventual winner, and helps them to better outline and codify their views and positions. The media seems to hate it though (which is another reason I like it!) I'd like to think our strength comes from examining honest diversities, rather than insincere mollycoddling. (Though I admit, insincere mollycoddling does seem to have helped the Republicans win elections.)
June 4, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink