I've noticed that Gallup has consistently polled Obama below where Rasmussen has, so this really doesn't come as much of a surprise to me. What WOULD be surprising to me is if Gallup was polling McCain ahead while Rasmussen continued polling Obama ahead outside of the MOE.

If McSame's "Admiral Stockdale Moments" continue apace -- and they almost certainly will -- Obama's lead will steadily climb until the old man is so far back that you can't even see him in the rear-view mirror.

I agree with Flufferwink, Obama will get a big bump after the Dem convention.

And I'll add to it that I'm not sure much will happen between now and then in terms of these national polls.

My usual disclaimer to all of these daily tracking polls is that they are polling something different than what actually selects the president. The national popular vote doesn't matter; what matters is the electoral college. RealClearPolitics.com has a chart of the latest polling by state and Obama is ahead in electoral votes but there is enough toss up states to call it a draw. Even so, he is looking strong and is doing the right things to position himself for victory.

Oh, a final point is that Rasmussen had a better track record in the primaries than Gallop. Rasmussen was 3rd best and Gallop 25th. Ras is an automated system with a recorded voice versus a live person with Gallop and overall the automated systems seem to perform better.

Just wait for the debates.

:)

Erik likes to draw a lot of conclusions from a single data source.

Yes.

the gallup tracking polls haven't even been beneficial during the primary season so why would they suddenly be beneficial now. Obama's lead will grow once we start getting further into the election season.

http://sensico.wordpress.com/

dear erik clayboot, this is so exciting. senator obama is struggling to stay on top of mccsame. hillary would have been a better candidate by far. she would have been up by ten, no doubt. are there any polls to tell us how far ahead hillary would be? tell us . tell us!

Obama will get a bounce when he picks his running mate.

McCain wont get much of any bounce when he picks his cause its gonna be just another old white conservative. (hopefully he is dumb enough to pick Romney)

Mountain = molehill: even with a 2 pt MOE, and Rasmussen's is 4 I believe, there is no difference in these polls. Even though they are close to each other and generally consistent with other recent polls, I still don't place much stock in daily tracking polls at this point. The NBC/WSJ poll released this past week is probably the best recent barometer of the race, showing Obama up by 6 pts.

Of course, that is not locked in stone between now and election day.

Take a look at this link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25139036#25139036

It is an interview with Gen. Wesley Clark from a couple of days ago. Clark certainly is a person who needs to be considered for the vp position, but regardless, if he can get a platform, what he has to say here will help de-mythify McCain.

As far as the polls go, it is just too early and no need to worry about every little shift. I'm just surprised that so many Americans are falling for all the current myths about McCain. As Clark points out, sitting in a POW camp, while very difficult, does not put one in the position of making command decisions about Iraq or elsewhere in the world. We don't have the same world as we had during the Viet Nam war era, and what we did then only resulted in needless deaths of many Americans.

I'm with George Will on this one.

Obama has five percent or more that aren't being picked up by traditional radar.

I need to shower now.

It's shocking that Obama is doing so poorly in the polls, considering how fed up most people are with the Republicans. but it's still not too late to nominate the right candidate.

On the other hand, I like Ron Paul...or at least I used to. Teaming with that thing "bobar" changed my mind. The guy with the rex is exactly that; a dinosaur.

I don't get this narrowing at all. McCain has looked ridiculous by any standard, hasn't made a case for shit, and Obama's done great. The Jim Johnson thing? Really? that would close up the gap when McCain's team is still over-run with lobbyists?

I'm surprised, frankly. Any ideas?

Obama is blowing his lead.
He keeps adding on new taxes with nothing in return. People are not stupid.
Raise the CG tax then the income tax. Wait, do not stop there, raise the soc security tax, but claim it will only affect the wealthiest 3%.
Whoa.
Didn't the income tax and alternative income tax only affect the wealthiest americans and now they apply to almost everyone?
Well the huge rise in the Soc Security tax will affect the middle cleass sooner than they think.
And what will they get for it. Nothing.
Basically Obama wants to change the Social Security retirement/disability insurance fund into a welfare program.
That will turn a successful program into a doomed program
It might even cost him the presidency in 2008.

Eric and Greg:

I would like to suggest some analytical judgement and critical thinking when posting and framing polling this far out from November. As has been already noted, the "shift" is not much of one, since McCain stayed at 42%. Also, I remember during the primary season that weekend polling consistently under-measured Obama support (for whatever reasons). For these 2 reasons of several - I don't know how journalistically responsible it is to post 2-3% changes (especially while the other person doesn't pick up support and another poll registers no shift).

And: Unlike the primary, if polling is at all significant this far out, wouldn't it be more interesting to create a story/analysis (not just a posting)about state polls????

What your headline suggests is that there is some drop in Obama support, but the data you cited does not bear you out on that "conclusion."

There are enough stories during this down time without having to make them up. It's kind of like MSNBC slicing up its own data to find a sliver of 100 "suburban women" (who are not always white, btw) who did not support Obama, and then creating a whole narrative around those 100 women. An ENTIRE show was devoted to these 100 women (where these suburbs were, I don't know. What is a "suburb" anyway these days with sprawling cities??).

Maybe all of you (pundits, bloggers, "reporters") should go get help for why the Obama campaign has become a fetish for some of you. While I know his run is ground-breaking blah, blah, blah - does that mean that media folk can
just throw away all reasonable constraints????

There's a story: "Obama's Candidacy as the New Exotic."

Geez,,,

La la la la, I'm not listening. Obama is god. La la la la.

Idiot here.

Anyone that gets in a lather about Gallup daily national tracking polls should find a new brand of shaving cream.

These numbers are I think pretty meaningless.

McCain's campaign lacks the willingness or the
ability (probably both) to think outside the box.

In order to survive McCain has to make an extraordinary pick as VP. There may be someone like that out there but the names being tossed around so far are about as average as you can get.
There might be one or two that could help him with the base but no one who can make the average voter take a different look at the McCain campaign.

Whatever Obama's weaknesses he will not have to rely on his VP to bring life to his campaign. HE has done that on his own.

He will probably get a bump post convention and never look back.