Focus Group: Pennsylvania Voters Are Suspicious Of Obama -- But Support Him Anyway
This is pretty interesting: A focus group conducted in Pennsylvania, among Hillary supporters and key swing voters, sheds some light on the challenges ahead for Obama with regard to overcoming questions about his background...
On some questions of character, patriotism, and values (who would you rather carry the American flag at the Olympics, who would you rather carpool with), the focus group overwhelmingly picked McCain. While Jeremiah Wright barely came up and "bitter" didn't at all, two of the respondents -- the Clinton supporter and a female Bush voter -- had very negative opinions of him. "I don't trust Osama ... Obama. It's only a letter difference," said Charles, the Hillary backer. "His middle name is Hussein." Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: "I don't feel he's a true American."
But...the focus group -- which was conducted by Democratic pollster Peter Hart, for the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania -- also found that more of them backed Obama than McCain.
Five backed Obama, four backed McCain, and three were undecided -- despite the fact that the voters were all white, none had previously voted for Obama, and the focus group was conducted in a place not known as sympathetic to the Illinois Senator. Obviously he has lots of work to do with these voters, but it isn't the worst place to start.
And now we see clearly why focus group campaigning is so very sucky.
I would like to see all focus groups discredited so political consultants will quit using them. It's a stupid fucking way to run a campaign.
June 25, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
hmmm... nope. i don't see that at all. what's so clear again??
focus groups allow us to see voter idiocy on an individual level. something i think can be quite valuable.
as individual voters are to the electorate as a whole, so focus groups are to the gamut of electoral research: they are just another tool in the toolbox. just because my wire-cutters won't drive a nail doesn't mean they won't prove useful if i'm building a house.
June 25, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Come on Tena, what it does clearly focuses is the stupidity of the people in question. If the spelling or sound of a name is what really makes you "American", then this country is in real trouble.
I just finished having a "discussion" with my boss about democracy (in Iraq) and how an educated and informed electorate is crucial for a truly functional liberal democracy to exist in a country. He, a Bush supporter, admitted that it was impossible to consider Iraq a democracy, and if we use those same tenets, then America should not be considered a democracy either. His position was that electorate is dumb as trees. I whole heartedly agreed with him and used the Bush victories as proof positive of that belief. I'm presently cleaning out my desk while I wait for Security to escort me out of the building. Honesty just doesn't pay!
(I'm kidding on the getting fired bit, but not kidding on a Bushie admitting the electorate is dumb as trees)
June 25, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
"electorate is dumb as trees"
Why defame trees like that? I have yet to hear a tree say anything nearly as stupid as what these people said.
Mitch
June 25, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree -- a huge sample, 12 people! Hmm... maybe a little too much emphasis on focus groups (as you said)?
and there are some focus-group regulars -- people who do multiple focus groups. I don't know if any of them were in this group, but they certainly could have been.
I agree -- as a survey researcher I know that focus groups are interesting and can help in formulating questions for big surveys & polls, and can also help in understanding apparent contradictions in polls. But by themselves, they tell us nothing.
June 25, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't reject focus groups just because they reveal ugly truths. These people are the American electorate. This is what Obama has to work with.
And frankly, it's not a pretty sight. Focus groups are probably where you see the biggest Wilder effect. If someone is going to lie to a pollster about who they voted for, then they're going to lie when they are sitting in a crowded room looking other people in the face. People who think that McCain is better on values, character, having a beer with, etc. aren't going step into the voting booth and pull the lever for Obama. I'll be McCain.
My guess? In the actual election, the three "undecided" subjects will go for McCain. Maybe one of the Obama supporters, too. That's a split of at least 7-5 for McCain.
Obama has a lot of work to do.
June 25, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't trust Osama ... Obama. It's only a letter difference," said Charles, the Hillary backer. "His middle name is Hussein."
No words.
June 25, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those are some ignorant people...hope the don't breed.
June 25, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://youtube.com/watch?v=upyewL0oaWA
June 25, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ignorant people, by definition, breed faster than people who are more informed.
June 25, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
:-( It is said that liberals/intellectuals are by definition a dwindling group!
I have a cousin who has a PhD, his wife is a doctor, and he says he wants to have at least a half a dozen children just to counterbalance the fact that I (and my ilk: 2-PhD households) do not want/have kids -- he has 3 so far, but he is already 45, so I am wondering about that promise... ;-)
June 25, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this item speaks directly to this one:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/how-george-carlin-aided-and-ab.php
June 25, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure what work can actually be done ... The one guy thinks that the fact that his name differs from a terrorist by one letter somehow implicates him as a terrorist (or sympathizer, or someone to not trust) and the other believes because his middle name is the same as the first of a dictator. What can one do to fight such ... I'll say it, ignorance?
And, what work does he need to do? He has their vote (at least for now). And, given their responses, what is it about McCain that makes them want to vote for someone they don't trust? Seems like McCain has a LOT more work to do ... he can't even beat a "terrorist"!
June 25, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Backer? F*cker? There's only a 2 letter difference.
More evidence that racists populated the Clinton campaign. That's a proud constituency.
June 25, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't feel you're a true American, ma'am. A true American should be able to see through the hype, the lies, the smears, and should be able to confront, or at least, be aware of their own prejudices and biases.
June 25, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
they really asked wuestions like "who do you want to carry the flag at the olympics?"
wtf? thats about as useful a question as asking who you want the first person on mars to be...what possible information can be gained from a question like that?
focus groups are destroying america!
June 25, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Questions like "Who would you rather carry the flag at the Olympics?" seem stupid on the surface, but they do serve a purpose. They help get at a person's perseption of a given subject in relation to a particular candidate. In this case, a person's answer reflects on how much they wear their patriotism on their sleeve. People who view flag waving, heart covering, Pledge saying, etc. as indicative of a candidate's patriotism and loyalty will rate the candidate who most closely mimics these actions as patriotic. People who do not consider such outward displays as important will look to other things like public service or what legislation the candidate has supported or his or her views of civil rights as more patriotic.
What this focus group question tells us is that the first group views Obama with suspiscion (sp) because he doesn't wear his patriotism on his sleeve. And reading between the lines, it implies that less educated voters have a harder time with nuance or that which is less familiar. This also tells us that Obama will likely have to work more overt flag waving, "I love this country" language into his stump speeches in order to woo some of these voters.
June 25, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus, usually athletes carry the flags, not presidents or heads of state. So it's a bizarre question all around.
June 25, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who would make McCain, with his injuries, march carrying a flag? And who chooses a 71-year-old to drive in a carpool with?
And what the f@#king f@#k does any of this have to do choosing a CHIEF F@#KING EXECUTIVE?!
June 25, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I strongly prefer McCain as the one to carry the flag at the Olympics. But only if he forgoes any role in the U.S. government.
McCain for Flag-Carrier!
June 25, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have some help in that from o, homeowners' associations, Walmart, Faux "News...."
But yes they are destroying at least our campaigns. I really despise the whole concept. Focus groups are stupid- they don't prove one fucking thing.
June 25, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
They provide a window into the dumbest minds in America.
June 25, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somehow I doubt we would be seeing Greg highlight stories about isolated rural misogynists if Clinton were the nominee...
June 25, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Senator, do you think Rev. Wright wants to carry the flag at the Olympics as much as you do?
June 25, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Senator, do you think it would have been appropriate for Rev. Wright to carry the flag at the Opening Ceremonies?
If so, should Rev. Wright be forced to wear a flag pin while carrying the flag?
If not, could you explain why Bill Ayers still lives in America?
June 25, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
"What would be more offensive to you - Rev. Wright carrying the American flag at the Olympics or John McCain wearing it as a diaper?"
June 25, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's pretty funny...
June 25, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
""Obama has been calling Hillary's top money people and asking for their support, but the fundraisers are in some cases being critical of Obama's operation," said a senior Hillary person who works directly with her top donors on a regular basis."
What is very revealing about this whole thing is the fact it is being leaked by: " a senior Hillary person who works directly with her top donors on a regular basis".
That tells me that Hillary is directing this leak. Apparently she has now started playing the good cop, bad cop game. She has ordered that "senior Hillary person" to leak this information to the media. Why?
It sure does not help Senator Obama, so it tells me that the Clintons have decided to pretend to be supporting Senator Obama, while they have already instructed their senior campaign staff to start putting the squeeze on him. They are now trying to push him around, and leak details that make him look weak, and being pushed around by her side.
The Clintons have now set about trying to undermine Senator Obama's campaign. That is very clear. Why else would they be pushing this story.
This is a very dangerous time for Senator Obama. If he lets the Clintons frame him in this manner, and he submits to their pressure, then he will be doomed. That is what the Clintons want.
This type of leaking from the Clintons is intended to torpedo the Obama campaign. He better follow his own best instincts, and stay to hell away from Hillary's big time Washington lobbyists.
June 25, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
What the hell does that mean? What is a "true American?"
God I just despise people like this.
June 25, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and there's only a shuffle of letters between Santa and Satan, so let's abolish Xmas. What a stupid line of "reasoning."
Focus groups are soooo bogus anyway. In the 80s, when I was in college (business school) I used to get on focus groups all the time -- mostly for the $25 and/or free food -- and I usually got kicked out halfway through when they figured that as a biz-school guy, I was on to their game. Not that it required all that much sophistication on my part, mind you...
June 25, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good luck trying to make sense out of idiots and bigots.
June 25, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's got the sweet private jet. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
June 25, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
As HL Mencken once said:
"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
June 25, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well I don't think "the public" is this stupid. That's why I hate focus groups.
Mencken's book on the American language is one of my all time favorite books - I've read it maybe 3 times. But I don't agree with most of Mencken otherwise - he was an awful bigot, when it came down to it. He was openly anti-Semitic.
I do not believe Americans are stupid. You, my darling, are an American. You are not stupid. There are a bunch of Americans hanging out here and hardly any of them are stupid.
If you believe Americans are stupid, then you also have set yourself up for being anti-democratic - because democracy depends on the idea that people are smart enough to govern themselves. And that's what liberals and progressives fight for.
June 25, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
June 25, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it is precisely for this reason that we DON'T have a democracy. In their wisdom, the Founding Fathers gave us a constitutional republic because they feared that the common man was too uneducated, inexperienced, and unwise to have a direct say in governing. There is actually very little democracy in America (the exceptions being in states where referenda are taken, like CA) and given the views expressed in this focus group and having lived in this country for the past 7 years, I'm pretty sure that the Founding Fathers were onto something -- as was Mencken.
June 25, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other quote that fits here, and I'm not sure who first said it, but it's spot on:
"the American Constitution is a system designed by geniuses to be run by idiots."
June 25, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never heard that before, but I like it!
June 25, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
its the reason we have an "electoral college" too.
because you just can't trust the voters when it comes right down to it.
June 25, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, let's throw a dozen people who weren't busy in the middle of the day into a room together and get their thoughts on the important matters of the day.
June 25, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Scary thought:
These people also sit on juries!
June 25, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! That's just who I want to decide my fate - 12 people who weren't smart enough to get out of jury duty in the first place.
June 25, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like I'm stealing someone's routine now.
June 25, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I served on a jury. I didn't try to get out of it. What's the point of the legal system if ordinary citizens won't put aside their daily lives and participate?
I really hate the fact that so many people look at jury duty as some sort of drudgery to be avoided at all costs. I also hate the fact that people take pride in getting out of jury duty.
Sorry to pile on you, hyperRevue, but your attitude is prevalent.
It was incredibly informative and uncomfortable to serve on the jury that I did. It was for a rape case.
June 25, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
No worries. I hear what you're saying. My comment was really just glib - I've actually yet to receive jury duty.
June 25, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
They sure do.
That's why you fight so fucking hard over the jury instructions.
June 25, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
For fuck's sake - the R. Kelly Jury said they were positive it was him on the tape but let him off anyway!
June 25, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course you left of the most important part. The R. Kelly jury said that the state did not prove that the girl or woman in the video was the person that the state claimed she was. The girl and many of her family testified that it was not her, and the jury said that the video quality was so poor that it was impossible to tell if it was that girl or not.
I am not a backer of R. Kelly, but I am a strong supporter of requiring the state to prove their case beyond a reasonable doubt. The jury decided that the state did not even come close to proving that it was the girl they claimed it was, so how could the jury convict.
Just because a Jury required convincing proof, and was not provided it, does not give you license to abuse them. They should be respected for doing their civic duty.
June 25, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was gonna say - and liam beat me to it.
The point at contention was the identity of the girl in the vid, not R Kelly.
June 25, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Twelve people?
They couldn't even get a lousy baker's dozen?
As much as people say polls are meaningless, I think a poll would shed much more light than the opinions of 12 people. It's just too small a sampling to be statistically significant.
P.S. - I think the Obama campaign needs to focus more on the negative implications of McCain's name.
Sample Push Poll
Q1: Did you know that Cain is the first recorded murderer in the Bible?
Q2: How do you feel about John McCAIN?
June 25, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or "Do you first associate the name 'John' with a prostitutes patron or a toilet?"
June 25, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm.... The "Mc" sounds awfully Irish or Scottish to me. I don't know if he's a "true American."
June 25, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonder how these people would have reacted if they'd been told that McCain's sister was a practicing thespian who'd actually been paid for public performances?
The old George Mathers smear of Claude Pepper!
June 25, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's sister is into other women?! Hot!
June 25, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
man..i'm sorry if i sound elitist, but i can't stand these idiots. thank goodness it was only a few ppl.
what the fuck is a "one letter difference" anyway? i want to punch that guy. ughhh...
June 25, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Translation: "He is not the same race as I am, so I am a little afraid of him"
June 25, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clintons should be required to hang out in Appalachia from now until the election, counter-programming away the damage they deepened during the primaries...
June 25, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given Bush's 23% rating and the frighteningly bad economy, Obama should be doing a lot better. Blaming things on the Clintons is for losers. It's not their fault Obama has no record of accomplishment. Voters are right to be skeptical, no matter how bad McCain is. This is serious business.
Obama is the damn candidate. Can we take off his training wheels now?
June 25, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Columbia grad, Harvard Law, Harvard Law Review editor, community organizer with at least two concrete results (job training center and asbestos clearing), State senator with unbelievably productive terms (death penalty reform, children's health insurance, ethics and campaign finance reform to name but a few) and spectacular record in the US senate in his short short tenure there (put in charge of shepherding ethics reform -- successful -- by Reid, transparency in govt. law, nuclear non-proliferation with Dick Lugar).
Of course he is not accomplished -- you can see that quite clearly, idiot.
June 25, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to carpool with Ralph Nader. In a Corvair.
June 25, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Death wish much? ;-)
June 25, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
here we go with the pennsylvania voters again along with the same nonsense about his name. they make their state look bad
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/06/24/gop-senator-uses-obama-in-new-tv-ad/
June 25, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hulk Hogan and Jesus, respectively.
June 25, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The beauty of the constitution is that it does everything possible to fight government power in our favor.
The checks and balances are not on us - they are on the government.
It's not a Republic because we're stupid, it's because we're venal.
But go ahead and think everyone in the world who doesn't agree with you is stupid.
I just don't care anymore. I've had this same fucking argument with elitists for 6 years and it's always the same. I'm going to ignore the "everyone is stupid who doesn't vote like I do" comments from now on.
June 25, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't carpool with McCain. He's willing to take 100 years to get there. I just don't have that kind of time.
Now Obama seems like he'd be fun to carpool with.
"Hey Barry, the light is yellow. Maybe we should stop."
"Nah, we can make it. Believe!"
"You sure?"
"Yes we can!"
Obama '08 - Acceleration We Can Believe In
June 25, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this country worth saving? Sometimes I feel with all the depravity and racism and stupidity in this country, I won't feel so bad if Obama loses, because this country doesn't deserve somebody like him.
June 25, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Great Unwashed remain disturbed by the middle name and the one letter. These are the dim people Karl Rove loves to spook, of course. Would it ease their torment if Barack (I'm never using just Osama or Obama again!) changed his middle name to Lincoln, or Heroism, or Anti-Terrorist, or Jesus? Patten, maybe?
Or how about Security? Barack Security Obama.
-- Mare Security Nostrum
June 26, 2008 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink