The Final Math
So with every last primary and caucus now over and done with, here are the final stats for the delegates and popular votes:
• Barack Obama has passed the 2,118-vote finish line and now has 2,158 votes, against 1,926 for Clinton. The remaining 144 super-delegates are likely to go almost entirely to Obama.
• Obama leads in the pledged-delegate count by 1,763 to Clinton's 1,640 -- a difference of 52%-48%, showing just how close this race was over the whole cycle.
• In the super-delegate count, Obama now leads by 395 votes to Clinton's 286 votes, a long journey from the start of the race when Hillary dominated in this category. This number is also likely to change very rapidly, as more and more supers come out for Obama as the presumptive nominee.
• For the popular vote -- a statistic that the Hillary camp has been boasting they won -- it all depends on how you count it. According to RealClearPolitics, Obama leads by 151,844 in a count that excludes Michigan and factors in estimates from caucuses that did not directly report popular vote totals. Including Michigan and crediting Obama all of the "Uncommitted" voters against Clinton, Obama still leads by 61,703 votes. In order for Hillary to lead, Michigan has to be added in without crediting Obama those votes.
All in all, it's been an amazing primary season. One candidate started out as the seemingly-unstoppable frontrunner, while another was able to come out of practically nowhere and pull off a narrow victory. The next step: Cleaning up the mess and getting on to the general election.
Yup.
June 4, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
52%-48% is quite a bit, for how close her and the media were trying to pretend it was. I mean considering our last two presidential elections came down to one or two percent..
And still Kerry didn't run around touting his 49 million voters and demanding he should get something special in return..
June 4, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
MSNBC reported late last night that Obama is over the 2110 point already, more than necessary under any of HRC's mathematical goal posts.
June 4, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
correction: 2210
June 4, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite. I initially misheard that myself, then read through the fine print on MSNBC's site. The math was that he would be over 2,210 under a full-vote seating of Michigan and Florida.
June 4, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but that's the only way the 2210 number has any meaning.
June 4, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
KO-wrecked!
June 4, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhhhhhhhh. Damn them to hell!
;-)
June 4, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That reminds me, now that Chuck Heston's hands are cold and dead, do we get to take his guns?
June 4, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Comparing popular vote is like trying to decide who has the most money in their pocket by weighing the coins.
June 4, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - I likes that.
and it's also like marking the side of the boat to try to remember where something went overboard.
June 4, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a lifelong sailor... I love that analogy!
June 4, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very well put.
June 4, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am sure President Gore concurs with this comment.
June 5, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the math that I had been most curious about. I've gotten so tired of hearing Hillary's stale talking-point about "winning the popular vote" and yet none in the media seem willing or able to call them out on this nonsense. Another canard that's becoming most tiresome is her "nearly 18 million voted for me" meme. Newsflash for ya Hillary: "nearly 18 million" voted for Obama too, what's your point?
June 4, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
npr interview last night did.
June 4, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unsurprising that NPR did (being a member and regular listener myself), but even this morning on MSNBC they were playing clips of Hillary's speech wherein she continues to make these assinine assertions and narry a peep is to be heard. Most frustrating.
June 4, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, basically, Methauliffe's talking points were penned in vanishing ink?!
June 4, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
with the race that close.... I think alot of political people will try to get Hillary on the ticket as VP...... They want to bring the party together...... unify the party...... they also want to do it so that she can run again in 2012 if obama desides not to or helps her run again in 2016.
They don't want to upset clinton's voters and they want to win michigan and florida.....
I see her taking the VP postion if asked.
June 4, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
She will NEVER be VP.
June 4, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, um, not if she's listening to her good friend Ed Rendell:
“You don’t bargain with the Presidential nominee. Even if you’re Hillary Clinton and you have 18 million votes, you don’t bargain.”
http://thepage.time.com/2008/06/04/rendell-raises-doubts-on-clinton-as-vp-you-dont-bargain-with-the-presidential-nominee/
June 4, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just saw that. I enjoy Rendell's complete lack of a mental filter, though I'd eliminate him from any veep discussions for the same reason.
June 4, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is fabulous, especially coming from Rendell such a thick Hillary supporter.
So clear!
I hope his statements get played around in the Media.
June 4, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
She wouldn't get out of the vetting process.
June 4, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luckily Obama doesn't actually need Hillary to win either of those states, or the nomination. Nor does he need her for unity. Nor does he owe her anything. Nor is she entitled to anything as a consolation prize. Nor would she make a good choice for VP even if all of that weren't true.
The last thing we need is to ruin our great chances in this election by sticking ourselves with a nightmare ticket.
June 4, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
She won't be asked.
Thank you, President Carter, for providing a graceful exit for Obama from that nightmare!
June 4, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
All this math is trivial at this point, but it is nice to savor in it a little longer since the Clinton have ignored the reality of it for months.
The final pledged delegate margin got skewed closer by the consession of Florida and Michigan by the Obama folks. Not by much, but the margin is about 1% higher without giving Senator Clinton those net 24 delegates.
You're also neglecting the defections that will continue to occur from Clinotn's Superdelegate ranks. If she doesn't concede by the weekend, I'd expect fully half of her ~280 remaining Supers to flip.
June 4, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, this just in reporting on msnbc. Obama's vp search committee of three people will include Caroline Kennedy!!!!! Smart move.
June 4, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG- that is the coolest thing I've heard in months!
god I love this man!
June 4, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. The guy is a freaking genius when it comes to politics.
June 4, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to agree as well - he and his team have run an absolutely brilliant campaign. I think we need to remember this when we start getting anxious about how he's going to do against McCain - I personally think McCain has NO chance against this tsunami!! ;)
June 4, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Comparing McSame's speech to Obama's last night. There is no way. It reminds me of Petraeus comparing the candidates books.
June 4, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've always wanted her (Caroline) to run for office. Besides that whole 'Kennedy mythos', she just comports herself so well and seems so cool, calm, and rational. She's from New York, right? Perhaps Schumer could move over...
June 4, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait for their first debate...!
June 4, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
His bold straightforward speech to AIPAC is still further proof of his outstanding brilliance and intellect regarding political leadership. Simply put he is the most competent major politician to come down the pike in decades.
June 4, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Yes, he is.
June 4, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It also indicates a search for a veep, not a coronation. Seems he wants to take his time. News cycles will devour Sen Clinton in the meantime.
June 4, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, it dovetails with obama' statement that he will talk with clinton over the next couple of weeks. Total marginalization and the clintons deserve it after their antics. Screw em.
June 4, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do we know the other two folk?!
June 4, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
From MSNBC: "Fresh off claiming the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama's campaign also announced a three-person team, including Caroline Kennedy, to lead his search for vice president."
"Meanwhile, the Obama campaign asked a three-person team to help lead the vetting of a prospective vice presidential candidate. Kennedy has begun managing the process with high-profile Democratic insiders Jim Johnson and Eric Holder."
June 4, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
How does Hillary as VP rationalize her camp calling Richardson (probably on the Cabinet) Judas, and Clyburn an asshole?
I can't see how she hasn't already made herself "unselectable" in that regard...
June 4, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome news! Feingold endorses Obama!!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-wi-senators-obama,0,6779063.story
'Scony represent!!
June 4, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This just made my day - Sen. Feingold is my hero!!!!! :)
June 4, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, love him. He makes this Wisconsin native proud!
June 4, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I could be so mean and gloat, but out of deference for your new found sense of propriety, I won't.
June 4, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am trying....
June 4, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
He hadn't previously?!
June 4, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
He had admitted that he voted for Obama in the WI primary. Guess he didn't make a formal endorsement til now, though.
June 4, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's actually a little disappointing.
But, oh well. Water under the bridge, as they say.
June 4, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he admitted he voted for Obama in the Wisconsin primary, but no announcement of his Superdelegate vote.
June 4, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking:
Generalissimo Franco is still dead, and Senator Hillary Clinton still lost.
Let them both rest in peace.
June 4, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And for those of us who have to put up with those HRC supporters on TPM who are threatening to vote for McSame this November, there's good news from DailyKos:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/4/10025/10406/627/529224
I think 99.5% of HRC supporters are true Democrats and will vote for Obama in November (and one of them post comments on Hillaryis44 LOL!!!) :D
June 4, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I am not worried about the Hillary supporters. The ones who sat next to me and my boyfriend at the Xcel Center, while perhaps not as enthusiastic as the rest of us, were very gratious and supportive.
June 4, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Joseph, you're a Ginsberg fan! Hurrah! Sadhu!
Sorry, just noticed that on your profile and had to comment. ;-) Return to your previously scheduled commenting...
June 4, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eeek - I meant to say "and NOT one of them post comments on Hillaryis44". I'm having a little bit of a tough day - a little too much celebration last night! ;)
June 4, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just knew it!
I knew their hearts were really in the right place!
It's going to be fine. It's going to be great.
June 4, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Hillary as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
Anyone? I reference Obama's speech last night where he said Hillary would lead on getting universal healthcare for the nation.
"And you can rest assured that when we finally win the battle for universal health care in this country, she will be central to that victory. "
June 4, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let her be a bulldog in the Senate, I say. That's where she'll do the most good, I think.
June 4, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've said it before and I'll say it again--Hillary freed of the constraints of the political winds would be a powerful force indeed. There are votes she's made she can't possibly agree with--cluster bombs, flag burning, Iraq--done it seems to protect her ambitions. But she can have that seat for life if she wants it, she has more visibility than anyone in the Senate, and could do wonderful things. I've always admired her passion but feared it was too easily compromised. It doesn't have to be anymore.
In an Obama administration Hillary could be responsible for some terrific legislation, separate herself from Bill and from this campaign. She has everything to gain from an Obama presidency. I hope she takes the opportunity and is someone I would be proud to show to my (hypothetical) daughters and say, "Yes, you can do this."
June 4, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And as I said in a previous thread (in agreement with Greg), I can't for the life of me understand why she'd want VP. She's not going to be Obama's Cheney.
June 4, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or a cabinet post, for that matter. She can have way more leverage as a Senator from NY, especially if she is successful in getting her supporters on board behind Obama.
Actually, she'll be a much better Senator when/if she stops running for President.
June 4, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like it fine - Health and Human Services would be great - she works hard, god knows!
June 4, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was not really that close. Obama had several cards which were never played---closer examination of all the Clinton financial stuff over the last 8 years---pressing her on her inconsistent move to the right---not bothering to make the superhuman organizing to cut the losses in ky, wva, puerto rico, etc. If it were a football game----the final score might be 27-24, but would have been 27-16 if Hillary had not driven hard for that last td in the last 30 seconds, and went for the two point conversion with no time left on the clock.
Two things the media never figured out regqrding the popular vote----the votes cast in caucus states required organization and committment not there in regular primaries. It was not enough to just add them to the primary state votes, much less not count them---they should have counted double or more.
And can we quit polling about how strong Hillary would do against McCain, unless the question is framed to give the scenario under which Hillary is actually nominated? Or maybe just start polling to see if Giuliani or Gingrich runs stronger against obama than McCain.
June 4, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The point in the end is that things went exactly the way most Obama supporters predicted it would after Super Tuesday. For as much as there was intense and sudden turns of events, everything ended up going the way I said it would from Feb. 6 on. Obama won, he came out with more pledged delegates, super delegates, states and votes total. I had my doubts, sure, but I also clung to Obama's message of hope, and truly believed and had faith in the fact that things would turn out this way. Yes. We. CAN!
June 4, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Headline over at Hillaryis44: "When Will Obama Concede?"
It'd be sad if it weren't so hilarious.
June 4, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those folks are nutcakes. Wow.
June 4, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ALL superdels... your turn to end it! Now!
"The remaining 144 super-delegates are likely to go almost entirely to Obama."
Please send a clear message because Hillary needs one, the country needs one.
June 4, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad to finally hear someone on this site call Obama's victory a narrow victory. It was very close no matter how you look at it, and especially close when you look at the popular vote. ABC News calculates Obama's victory at only 300,000 votes out of about 35 million votes cast if Michigan and Florida are not counted. Add those two states and they put Hillary ahead by 300,000 votes. I do hope this puts an end to the "crushing defeat" talk.
June 4, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
A win is a win.
Characterize it however you want.
June 4, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell that to Bush!
If this had been straigh primary voting -- as it will be in the GE -- and nothing else had changed Hillary would have won.
This means that Obama has to change a lot of minds if he is to prevail in November and by slandering Hillary he has made that job much more difficult.
I will never vote for anyone who raised false charges of racism as he did.
June 4, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only ones concerned with the margin of victory are the losers. The winners are to busy celebrating to wory about such trivia. It is just like the way the weak and insecure wory about 'respect'.
June 4, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worked at HHS for years (date myself and say I started there in the Nixon/Saturday Night Massacre era, when it was still HEW), in the agencies that oversee Medicare and Medicaid. I think HRC would actually be a great HHS Secretary (since we're throwing initials around and discussing health care, I'll add:)
...after some ECT.
June 4, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree kjoe, the "limping across the finish" meme was enhanced by garbage time wins that he gave up to avoid even more contentious intra-party squabbling.
It seems to me that Obama has been running a General Election strategy since NC/IN when it became apparent that nothing she could do would overcome the lead he had built. If it was closer, he could have countered the "kitchen sink" strategy with a lot of things in addition to Bill's financial doings. Things like Norman Hsu, the Rich's and to counter the Ayer's innuendo that the Clinton team was pushing (and not to mention it's effect on the PR votes), the Pardon of the FALN terrorists.
Yes, it was close. But not as close as the final score seems to indicate.
June 4, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
With all these Hillary defections, I keep coming up with this image of Tony Montana in Scarface, where everyone who has deserted him is a fuc*ing cock-a-roach, and he's completely unhinged and alone and fighting a lost cause to the death...
June 4, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Earlier in the day Eric had a silly post titled "Too Little too Late" in which he claimed that Hillary netted two more delegates than Obama from the combined MT and SD primaries. In fact, RealClearPolitics says that Obama netted 1. In MT, he received 9 to her 7. In SD, he received 7 to her 8. That's Obama 16 to Clinton 15. Too little too late, indeed. Just thought I would point this out. Perhaps someone else already has.
June 4, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about Hillary as "Secretary for Dealing With Hillary" ... sounds like a suitable position needing filling huh?
June 4, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Otto: Did you even read the post?? For God's sake we need you. Are you a Dem or not?
June 4, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meaning what? Clinton's supporters aren't Dems? Or that the truth is painful to you 'bots? It was a narrow victory, and you'd be very wise not to continue alienating Clinton's supporters.
June 4, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are exceptionally politically naive if you think what Obama supporters think is what really matters. What matters is the current wrong direction of the country. And the right direction that Obama will lead the country. Not to mention McCain's being on the wrong side of issues such as the war, the economy, Roe vs. Wade, his probably selections to the Supreme Court, etc. Oops, I just did. ;-)
June 4, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, like your Photoshop work there doesn't insult Bill and Hillary (and humanity in general).
Say what trollish things you have to say, buddy, but anybody that posts links like that needs to have his IP address checked out.
Seriously. Link to field-negro.com if that gets you off but REMOVE THE LINK TO THE RACIST PHOTO. NOW.
June 4, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the spirit of not feeding the Republican trolls I haven't been replying to EastWest. But his adolescent comments elicited this from my 13-year-old son who is clearly more mature than EastWest:
"that guy is a complete douchebag"
yep.
June 5, 2008 2:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
So why aren't those last 144 super delegates committing to Obama??
Why is that?
It's very very unusual. I don't remember this every happening!
June 4, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those were probably the crooked politicians who made bad investments anticipating a Clinton presidency. Probably in Columbia?????
June 4, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are just not paying attention. Some red state dems never endorse in presidential races.
June 4, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, let it play out nice and s-l-o-w. Talking point for the next few days should be about having a deliberate process with full vetting of all prospects. Just let that word "vetting" keep popping up, and eventually Hillary and Bill and her supporters will realize maybe her being on the ticker isn't such a great idea after all. (Calling Todd Purdum...)
June 4, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink