Dems See Major Pickup Opportunity In California
Democrats got some good news in a major House race last night, with Republican nominating the candidate who is probably their weaker option for this open deep-red district.
In the Fourth District, where scandal-plagued GOP Congressman John Doolittle is retiring, arch-conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock defeated the more moderate former Congressman Doug Ose for the right to go up against Democratic candidate Charlie Brown, who just barely lost to Doolittle back in 2006.
This news cheered national Dems, because it means they have a much better chance of capturing this key House seat.
McClintock is considered the weaker option for the GOP for a few reasons. First of all, he's run multiple losing statewide campaigns for governor, lieutenant governor and state controller -- making him a darling of conservative activists but a political gadfly in the eyes of many other voters. Furthermore, he's not actually from the district, but moved there specifically to make this race, whereas both Brown and Ose are from the area and didn't have to carpetbag.
Make no mistake, though, that this could be a very tough seat for the Dems to win, having voted 61% for President Bush in 2004. That said, the combination of a strong Democratic candidate in Brown, combined with McClintock's weaknesses, could make this a strong pick-up opportunity.
God I'm loving this election season.
I'm loving being a Democrat. I love my life! LOL!
June 4, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is actually surprising, considering that Tom McClintock was only narrowly defeated for the lieutenant Governorship in November 2006 and has a popular standing amongst many if not most Californians. I think that Senator McClintock will handily win this seat.
"God I'm loving this election season.
I'm loving being a Democrat. I love my life! LOL!"
Interesting that you should say that when the Dems just nominated the dead wrong candidate who will likely lose in November to John McCain.
June 4, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might want to rephrase that adjective phrase you used to describe Obama.
Just sayin.
I'm taking that shit very seriously from now on and that was a very poor choice of words.
June 4, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, have you seen recent polls. Did you see the two speeches last night: McCain vs. Obama. I'd be worried if I was GOP. Very worried.
June 4, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
McClintock is a total tool. Pretty sure most of CA sees him as a tool as well. Especially all the Democrats who are going to turn out in record numbers in the fall.
June 4, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Political tool-age at work:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-3Dv4t0Ekw
Oropeza has a history of dealing with this guy.
June 4, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charlie Brown is a great choice.
June 4, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Fourth District is, along with the Third, the part of California with the most vigorous knee-jerk dislike of Anything Angeleno. Doug Ose has just finished flinging a load of Carpetbagger mudbombs at the State Senator from Thousand Oaks (heart of the San Fernando Valley). Those mudbombs won't beat McClintock in the General, but they will reinforce the impression of being out of touch with the district, which is tied at the hip to the Federal Government for several reasons:
(1) It has a lot of retirees, not of the high income variety, who will look askance at McC's damn-em-all economic libertarianism;
(2) It has a lot of old and, now, young veterans, who will look askance at McC's damn-em-all economic libertarianism;
(3) It has significant population in the Truckee/Tahoe recreation belt who depend on effective Federal support for environmental regulation and policies for the regeneration of healthy forests and the prevention of catastrophic wildfires, who will look askance at McC's damn-em-all economic libertarianism;
(4) The district's population core is in the Eastern Suburbs of Sacramento; there are wealthy hyperconservatives there (especially in Granite Bay) who form the core of the DooLittle constituency, but also vast swaths of marginal middle class suburbs. These areas are Ground Zero for the subprime mortgage crisis, and many people there will look askance at McC's damn-em-all economic libertarianism.
The biggest problem for Democrats in the area is getting over the Culture Wars. Charlie Brown is the perfect candidate for this...and Barack Obama at the top of the ticket is a big help. Can we do it?
Yes, we can.
June 4, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
McClintock = bad for women, bad for mothers.
Reproductive Rights
SB 1301 (Kuehl) Reproductive Privacy Act - Signed in to law in 2002
McClintock voted against this legislation which codifies Roe v. Wade.
SB 780 (Ortiz) California Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act – Signed in 2001
McClintock voted against this legislation which protects patients and health care providers from clinic violence.
AB 39 (Hertzberg)/SB 41 (Speier) Access to Contraceptives – Signed into law in 1999
McClintock voted against this legislation which increases access by requiring health plans to cover FDA approved contraceptives.
Comprehensive Sexual Education
SB 71 (Kuehl) Comprehensive Sex Education – Signed into law 2003
McClintock voted against this legislation which Consolidated, clarified and expanded the education code in the areas of sex education and HIV/AIDS prevention education.
Violence Against Women
AB 22 (Lieber) Human Trafficking – Signed into law in 2005
McClintock voted against this measure which established civil and criminal penalties for trafficking human beings and creates a task force to combat trafficking.
AB 606 (Jackson) Domestic Violence Emergency Grants – Signed into law in 1999
McClintock voted against this measure which provides victims of domestic violence with an emergency grant from the Victim Restitution Fund to relocate in order to flee a batterer.
AB 1928 (Jackson) Violence Against Women Act (Jackson) - Signed into law in 2002
McClintock voted against this legislation which mirrors the civil rights provision in the federal Violence Against Women Act.
Family Medical Leave
SB 1661 (Kuehl) Paid Family Medical Leave – Signed into law in 2002
McClintock voted against this legislation which created a paid family leave program, which permits workers to take up to six weeks of paid leave to care for an ill family member or new child. The system is funded by employee payroll deductions.
Breast Cancer
SB 5 (Rainey) Breast Cancer Insurance Coverage - Signed into law in 1999
McClintock voted to allow health insurance providers to deny health coverage to women who are without breast cancer, but who have a family history of the disease or have had a test to screen for it.
Gender Discrimination
AB 2317 (Oropeza) Pay Equity - Vetoed in 2004
McClintock voted against this legislation which imposes financial penalties on employers who discriminate based upon gender in paying their employees.
AB 76 (Corbett) Sexual Harassment – Signed into law in 2003
McClintock voted against this legislation which protects employees from sexual harassment by clients or customers.
AB 1670 (Judiciary Committee) Fair Employment and Housing – Signed in law in 1999
McClintock voted against this legislation which prevents workplace discrimination, including discrimination against pregnant women
McClintock is too conservative for California.
June 4, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Marcus--good analysis. Charlie Brown gives us a very good shot, but I wouldn't overestimate how much McClintock's "arch-conservatism" will hurt him. He's a fairly popular figure in CA, as right-wing extremists go.
June 4, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and.... (from 2006)
"Tom McClintock is considered an extreme ideologue whose 'agenda consists of privatizing everything from prisons to street-lighting and a voucher system for education." (California Journal, 10-1-91). Even former Governor Pete Wilson, a Republican, has referred to McClintock to as an "ideologue, obstructionist, and even caveman," after then Assemblyman McClintock claimed that "Governor Wilson and his supporters have declared war on the taxpayers of California." (LA Times, 6/19/91). Little guys usually come last with McClintock who wouldn't protect consumers against credit card interest rates (LA Times, 10-13-86) and who opposed mandatory product labeling of cancer causing chemicals (Prop 65, LA Times, 10-13- 86).
McClintock’s amazing record continues to this day. He received a zero percent (0%) rating on the California Environmental Score Card of the California League of Conservation Voters.... The last day the legislature was in session before their recess, he was speaking on the Senate floor against solar energy. He opposed the intrastructure bonds supported by his “running mate,” Arnold Schwarzenegger. He has even spoken in favor of increased offshore oil drilling and wants to ban carpool lanes.
He is opposed to any increase in the California minimum wage which hasn’t been increased in 5 years (even without indexing).... He’s never voted for a state budget! The last time he ran for statewide office, he chose as his deputy campaign manager someone who had a theocratic agenda for the state of California. The list goes on and on.
Join all reasonable Californians, whether Democrat, Independent or Republican, in rejecting the extreme politics of Tom McClintock.
Californians cannot afford the price."
Frank D. Russo, Califronia Progress Report
June 4, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
josephcast,
While I agree with the statements that McC is "Too Conservative for California," that does not mean he is Too Conservative for Colfax (to pick a random conservative foothills town in the Fourth).
We will not win the district fighting Culture Wars battles. Rather, we will quietly "Move On," and point out that McC's economic libertarianism does not in fact promote the Family Values of assuring our oldsters of a decent retirement, our returning vets of appropriate and respectful benefits, and our kids of decent preventative health care and funded schools (especially in counties where the Federal Government, which pays no property taxes, is the largest landowner).
Arguments that work in Davis or San Francisco or Santa Monica, or even Walnut Creek and Riverside---that have defeated Tom Quixote McClintock in statewide races---will not work as well in Lincoln and Rocklin and Susanville.
Fortunately Charlie Brown speaks the language well, and knows the district.
June 4, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This tells me that the Republicans haven't reached bottom yet. When you don't believe that your beliefs and tactics are the problem, and you keep reaching further to the extremes of your political spectrum for the answer, you have lower to go. 2008 is shaping up to make the last election look like a garden party for the Rs. Works for me.
June 4, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It just keeps getting better and better. I hope this bodes well for the defeat of the anti-same-sex marriage initiative in November.
June 5, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will be a great race for Dems to pick up. We could not ask for a better candidate than Colonel Charlie Brown.
John McCain Voted to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike
June 5, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in this district and know some of the local Republicans, they do not like McClintock, even Schwarzenegger does not like him. There were many Moderate Republicans who voted for Charlie Brown in 2006, some were highly placed officials who whispered their support, because of the fear of retaliation from the Doolittle machine and its threats of cutting of financial support. The machine has now developed internal problems; a schism between the ideologues and the moderates. The counties can see that buying into McClintock's ideals of no frills and the coming Democratic majority will not serve them well. The Republicans I know respect Charlie Brown, have already heard the rightwing smear tactics and reject them. They have been burned by Doolittle and Bush.
June 5, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the "on-the-ground" insight.
Given the Republican nature of the district, I think the case to make is that Republicans in the 4th won't ever get a better local Republican Party unless they vote Democratic at least this once.
June 6, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
But while Charlie Brown is out campaigning, who will take Snoopy's dog dish out to his dog house?
Sorry - that was irresistible.
June 6, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink