Democratic Race Unchanged By Hillary's Puerto Rico Win
Here are the stats from Puerto Rico, with 99% of precincts reporting:
• Hillary Clinton leads 68%-32%, with a 140,000 lead in the raw popular vote total.
• For the territory's 55 pledged delegates, Clinton will get 38 to Barack Obama's 17. While a +21 take from a single contest might normally be impressive, Obama still leads by over 150 total delegates.
• Turnout was radically lower than anybody had predicted. A total of 380,000 ballots were cast, making up only a little over 16% of the island's voters -- well short of the 900,000 that both campaigns had once thought was a reasonable estimate.
In short, Hillary Clinton's big win today has not changed the fundamental delegate math, with Obama still likely to clinch the nomination later this week. As for the popular vote metric, Clinton will only be able to claim such an advantage if the Michigan primary is factored in to give her nearly 330,000 extra votes, and crediting Obama none of the "Uncommitted" votes that his supporters cast in that primary.
So, to sum up, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois will be the 2008 Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States.
June 1, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
My dear - you fell short: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.
:)
June 1, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
My bad and I'm happy to admit it!
June 1, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to Eric for doing that math on Michigan.
One thing I should say is that, although I like this site more than Kos, Kos does have diarists who are serious serious political junkies about state and local politics, and who often predict what the mainstreamers miss. I am speaking of a Puerto Rican kos diarist who said about a week ago that turnout would be between 3 and 400,000 voters, since Presidential politics does not grab islanders. Independence-minded Puerto Ricans (as opposed to those clamoring for statehood) almost make it a point of pride not to participate in mainland politics. It's a partial explanation for the trouncing, since for whatever reason Obama's demographic correlated more with independence-minded voters than statehood aspirants.
June 1, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Happy Dance!!!!!!
June 1, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me I have never been so excited about a person since Ronald Reagan.Obama will win this thing and become the second youngest man to assume the off the Presidency of these United States.The only person younger was JFK!!!
June 2, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Teddy Roosevelt was younger (42 years old) than JFK when JFK (43 years old) assumed the office.
June 2, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Finally!
June 1, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you are destroying my conception that you had a pro-Hillary bias. Please stop posting things that make sense.
June 1, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
She crushed him by 150,000 to take a commanding lead in the popular vote.
She won in a real election.
Clinton should be the President.Period.
June 1, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe that is the win-win solution we've all been waiting for! Puerto Rico declares their independance and Hillary becomes their president!
June 1, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is GENIUS! Hillary Clinton for President of the Independent Republic of Puerto Rico! Viva Clinton!
She can become President Barack's strongest ally (or harshest critic?) in the UN, he avoids the delicate matter of the undesirable Clinton Vice Presidential nomination and gets full credit from Hispanics for his Liberate Puerto Rico policy!
June 2, 2008 4:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not enough. It doesn't matter. And whatever happened to that 2 million turnout Hillary was supposed to get?
(((*hugs*)))
June 1, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really had hopes for us Gotalife. I looked forward to the time we would drink Crown together. Sadly, I am confronted with the undeniable truth that you were a republican troll all along.
June 1, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you actually bother to read what Eric posted?
June 1, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's Popular Vote Totals Are Bullshit.
June 1, 2008, 8:01PM
Hillary's popular vote numbers are bullshit. Just like her "experience" claims have always been.
In order for her to be ahead, she conveniently leaves out these caucus states in order to come up with her bullshit figures:
Alaska
Colorado
Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Minnesota
Nebraska
Nevada
North Dakota
Texas (Caucus only)
Washington
Wyoming
She also leave out ANY popular votes for Obama in Michigan.
Add ALL those votes into the mix (which means 400,000 net votes for Obama) and Obama is well ahead of her 'popular' vote voo-doo math.
That is approximately 183,067 votes in his favor (including Puerto Rico).
The women is a pathological liar.
This is why 75% of supers who have come out in this last month have come out for Obama. They aint' buying her bullshit.
She's a pathetic joke.
Check out Real Clear Politics for all the REAL figures. Hillary Clinton is a LIAR who can't stand the fact Barack Obama out Clintoned her.
June 1, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this argument becomes even more specious when she adds in some 250,000 popular votes of folks that won't be able to vote in November!
June 1, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yea, we musn't include the spics, must we.
Why is it that when you peel an Obama groupie, they're the most racist of all? I'm not crazy about Obama, but I would never say that you shouldn't count the votes of black people.
June 2, 2008 2:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, non seqitur, much? They aren't racist against Hispanics anymore than Hillary is racist against whites when she tries to complain that the caucus states shouldn't count. In fact, I'd say that their argument probably makes more sense than hers because once again, Puerto Rico has no electoral votes, whereas the caucus states have 60 votes not including Texas and 94 votes if you do include Texas. Both higher than California's total electoral vote count. Nowhere did they claim that Puerto Ricans were second class citizens. They were turning some of Hillary's own arguments against her.
June 2, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. In the fantasy world of Hillaryland, Puerto Rico counts and the Soviet-style Michigan election counts (but only for her), but more than a dozen states don't count.
June 2, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to RCP, with the caucus states fairly estimated and all of Michigan's uncommitted to Obama, he leads by +44,605. Of course, it is not really fair to award him all of the uncommitted votes in MI so I'd say they are, by any fair measure, virtually tied in the popular vote. And Clinton can claim that no popular votes went to Obama in MI because he chose to remove his name to appease Iowa. It's really a moot point anyway since the race was called weeks ago at least, but we should be honest about it.
June 1, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Fairly estimated" caucus votes still don't represent the caucus states fairly because, by their time-consuming nature, only a small fraction of voters participate in caucuses compared to primaries. That's why delegates are apportioned not to the number of total votes, but relatively to a state's electoral vote in the general election.
June 2, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, I don't know if they can be estimated accurately unless there was extensive polling at the time. Aren't a few states holding back on vote info? I hope the DNC will get the states and state parties together after this and fix the system. As in 2000, the flaws become apparent when the race is close. Our entire voting system was going to be reformed after 2000 and other than more Republican voter suppression and unsecured computer voting machines, I don't see much progress.
June 2, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
this goes to your point about the small number voting in caucuses (from TalkLeft.com):
June 2, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're lying again, which seems to come pretty easily to the Obama crowd. The only caucus state numbers that aren't included are states like Texas, which had both a primary and a caucus where people voted in both. Face it - your boy Obama is a popular vote LOOOOOOSSURRRRRRR. Just like McGovern.
June 2, 2008 2:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except of course your are wrong again... as always.
June 2, 2008 5:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
gotalife, don't become a pathetic parody of yourself.
June 1, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too late.
Way too late.
June 1, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, she's not, so go suck eggs.
June 1, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
GO AWAY GOAT YOU CLINTONITES ARE DONE!!!!
June 2, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ed Rendell will not support Hillary taking the
Michigan decision to the Credential Committee.
Clinton's campaign objected to the rules committee decision on Michigan's delegates, saying it had arbitrarily taken four delegates away from the former first lady and awarded them to Obama. As a result, officials said she may seek a decision on the issue by the convention credentials committee, which meets shortly before the convention opens in Denver.
Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Clinton, said on NBC's "Meet The Press" no decision had yet been made.
"I have not had a chance to talk with Senator Clinton at any length about it, and obviously this will be a big decision. But her rights are reserved," he said.
But one of her strongest supporters, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, sounded uninterested in a further challenge.
"I don't think we're going to fight this at the convention, because even were we to win it, unless it's going to change enough delegates for Senator Clinton to win the nomination, then it would be a fight that would have no purpose," Rendell said on CBS' "Face the Nation."
June 1, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If even Ed Rendell isn't going to support taking it to the convention, Hillary is really fucked. She'll go without any SD support.
June 1, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
But she's still got Terry Methauliffe, Loony Davis and Weird Harold Icky totin' her water!
June 1, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eddie Rendell is no dummy.
June 1, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
In her speech in PR courtesy of ABC: I cannot wait until she just shuts up. Enough already. Oh, and I love her 'slight lead' comment. She knows less about numbers than John McCain.
Clinton’s main argument is that she is leading in the popular vote, saying this evening, “More people across the country have voted for our campaign. More people have voted for us than for any candidate in the history of presidential politics. We are winning the popular vote. Now there can be no doubt. The people have spoken, you have chosen your candidate.”
The senator argued that there will not be a nominee on Tuesday saying, “So, when the voting concludes on Tuesday, neither Sen. Obama nor I will have the number of delegates to be the nominee. I will lead the popular vote, he will maintain a slight lead in the delegate count. The decision will fall on the shoulders of those leaders in our party, empowered by the rules, to vote at the Democratic convention.
June 1, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's slight lead is 156.5 delegates.
June 1, 2008 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard a superdelegate say that her campaign called last week and asked him to wait to endorse until the convention.
Well, I think most of the superdelegates did her a favor by waiting until after the final primary and now they see the need to get the party unified.
There will be some elected official superdelegates who don't endorse but I think that is mainly because they don't want to anger the Hillary supporters in their states.
June 1, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, the only reason to wait to endorse, really, is not to give her any chance of taking the nomination - that is clearly not going to happen by any stretch of the imagination. The only reason for her to put that plea out there is so that she can continue to ask for contributions to her campaign. The only reason. I can't see any other reason for her to do this - besides a craven need for attention...
June 1, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is "us"? Who are "we"?
June 1, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"“So, when the voting concludes on Tuesday, neither Sen. Obama nor I will have the number of delegates to be the nominee."
She may be correct, but I bet Obama will have them by WEDNESDAY!
At that point, she should head back to Chappaqua!
June 2, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
DENVER! DENVER! DENVER!
Apropos of nothing, I would like to point out that I am neither inadequate, black, nor male.
June 1, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
So those three testicles that James Carville discover on your under carriage are as useless as tits on a bull. Is that what you are telling us Hillary?
June 1, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse me? No. No, that's not what I'm telling you. What I'm telling you is that, unlike certain people, I am not a secret reverse Muslim vampire.
June 1, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a fighter. A historic fight.
Out spent, corporate media hacked, race card played and she still won the most popular votes ever.
Hillary Clinton is flat out amazing and should be President.
We are not worthy of her greatness.
God bless the Clintons.
June 1, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes I am, yes I should, yes you are not, and yes He does! Thank you!
June 1, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
Touché.
June 1, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
lolz!!11l!
June 1, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cultist.
June 1, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we're in the cult?
June 1, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless you count Obama, of course.
June 1, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
What flavor gotalife's Kool Aid? Extra Sour Grape?
June 1, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!That says it all man Sour Grapes in a Nutshell.Actually I do like Grape.
June 2, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Out spent" means out raised...
There's a reason why Obama is raising more money from more new AND repeat donors than Clinton is.
That speaks volumes more than her victimology of being "out spent".
June 1, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clap, Clap!
Point, Point!
Clap, Clap!
Point, Point!
June 1, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
notaclue shoulda hired more monkeys to type:
Hmm... Please explain how Ms MostVotesEver managed to be "out spent" by an inferior candidate with vastly less popular support.
LK
June 2, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
getalife... She cannot even run a successful campaign; how in hell can she run a country?
With all of her so-called "experience", as well as her so-called "dynasty", she should have had it in the bag!
So become a realist and face teh facts. The so-called "inexperienced" candidate (Obama of course) ran a brilliant campaign that will truly go down in history as "The Most Successful Campaigns" ever run.
However, with that being said, would you please answer this question?
Why did Hillary NOT win the Nomination?
Lastly, you need to get over yourself and embrace "Obama the Great" in 08' !
Toodles!
June 2, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Holy shit!
What have you done with the real Eric? (wry grin)
Straightforward, succinct, accurate analysis and reportage without spin. Have we finally turned page in TPM's EC coverage?
Good post Eric.
June 1, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Hillary campaign's fantasy-math keeps changing as the real-world delegate math keeps looking worse for her. Is this really the kind of person people want for president? Granted, she'd be much better than McCain, but that's faint praise.
June 1, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Obama has a Latino problem too.
Better run Clinton .
June 1, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to lose Puerto Rico in November!
June 1, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how much weight does PR carry in the general election?
Hmmmm....that would be a Zero....PR does not get to vote in the general election in November....
And your point is?
June 1, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess that would be the point. Thanks for spelling it out Fun Police.
June 1, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. You'd think that people would realize that nothing Peter Griffin says can be taken literally.
June 1, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I object! Puerto Ricans will certainly make a difference in November when Obama carries New York.
June 1, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most descendants of Chinese immigrants don't support the Communist Party.
June 1, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
O noes!
LOL!
June 1, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh well... as they say, "You Can't Win Them All".
However, all that matters is that he wins the GE; and that he will.
"Obama the Great" in 08' !
Whewwwwwwwwww!
June 2, 2008 2:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except of course he doesn't.
June 2, 2008 5:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a nice snip for Kos to answer the folks who think the Clinton fuzzy math has any basis in reality. It takes into account today's PR election with 76% of the votes counted.
By the way, in the real popular vote, including Florida which the DNC now accepts, and excluding Michigan, which the DNC now rejects, and including the caucus states (which Clinton and her camp want to disenfranchise), the numbers currently are Obama +183,067.
That includes the 76 percent of Puerto Rico that has reported.
So even with this bullshit measure, Obama still leads. And it is bullshit, remember that states were tasked with choosing their own electors. They chose by either:
* Open Caucuses (Democrats, Republicans and Independents allowed)
* Modified Caucuses (Democrats and Independents)
* Closed Caucuses (Democrats only)
* Open Primaries (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents allowed)
* Modified Primaries (Democrats and Independents)
* Closed Primaries (Democrats only)
* Mixture of open caucuses and open primaries (i.e. Texas)
* Mail-in ballot primary
* Weekend primary
* Weekday primary
The states are not on equal footing, hence any effort to tally the the popular vote is not an apple-to-apple comparison.
Of course, we know that, the super delegates know that, the media knows that, and even the Clinton campaign secretly knows that. And it is that incessant bullshit that has made this primary, which has otherwise been a boon for our party, so infuriating.
With all due respect to Markos, by keeping up this popular vote drumbeat, Hillary has succeeded in keeping the narrative going, and that is their objective right now, because anything can happen.
June 1, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm, that should have been a blockquote after "By the way..."
June 1, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Daily Obama.
kos is a kook that was gop like Ariana at the HP.
June 1, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh come on, you are just jealous because his numbers are correct and yours are so off the wall.
June 1, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You eggheads with your so-called "mathematics" sure sound like you have all the answers. But both you and your so-called "mathematics" ignore one simple fact: I am winning by every measure there is.
June 1, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shoot all the mathematicians! What's that you say? We're all out of bullets after shooting all the economists? Hmm, then ship them to Bosnia! They won't be able to duck, dodge and weave the snipers like I could!
June 1, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 1, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit - Reply has flipped fucking out - this was a reply to Suntzu.
June 1, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wise words indeed, suntzu!
June 2, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wish Pelosi would commit to Obama tomorrow. I heard probably Wednesday.
June 1, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
DENVER!
DENVER!
June 1, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can anyone tell me those Hillary supporters were adding a 3rd syllable to "Denver" during their chants?
June 1, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
You thought it was "I want candy". Thats 4. You're a flip flopper.
June 1, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha - no, I heard "Candy Bar! Candy Bar! Candy Bar!"
June 1, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh thats correct. I am sorry if I offended anyone with my statement.
June 1, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hereby reject and denounce all candy bars. In church. With a collar. On a steeeek.
June 1, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Democratic Race Unchanged By Hillary's Puerto Rico Win"
All due respect, Greg, the race has changed as a result of today's PR primary. Hillary's chances of getting the nomination are now less than ever because she needed a turnout of at least 500,000 today, and she was even floating the idea of 1.5 million. Her claim to a popular vote victory was dashed today.
By not meeting her own expectations her chances got slimmer after today. So, I have to disagree with this headline. The race has changed, and Obama's prospects have improved.
June 1, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Popular vote argument was complete BS to begin with, so in that respect nothing's changed.
June 1, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Sen Clinton enjoys her last hurah. Now it is full steam ahead to the white house for Sen Obama.
June 1, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you lose 12 straight contests in a row?
How do you walk into an election with 100 million dollars more than anyone else and end up getting out-fundraised?
How do you walk into an election with over 150 superdelegates already committed to you and the support of the world's most popular Democrat and end up losing the superdelegate count?
How do you have your husband's former campaign managers be paid commentators on the #1 cable news network for liberals, have the owner of the Republican news channel give money to your campaign, have your husband's press secretary anchor a sunday morning talk show, have the nation's newspaper of record endorse you, and still end up feeling like you lost the media war?
June 1, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Short answer: The InnerTubes.
June 1, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
How? Maybe weapons-grade stupidity?
LK
June 2, 2008 1:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Answer:
Attempt to run a "Hillary Clinton" campaign. Oh, and run as "The More Experienced Candidate".
So much for fuckin' EXPERIENCE!
The same for McPain's tired ass too! Now he TAKES THE CAKE! He's a "TRUE MESS"!
June 2, 2008 2:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey loser, how many Peurtos Ricans are going to vote for Shrillary for president?... NONE!
Get a life.
June 1, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing that is amazing is that the Obama team's leaked projections have proven remarkably accurate. There have been 25 contests that have taken place since the memo was leaked (just after Super Tuesday) and the projected winner has been accurately predicted 23 times (exceptions: Obama won Maine, and Clinton eked out Indiana, thanks to Limbaugh). The delegate projections were 722-682 for Obama (+40), but it has turned out 750-654 Obama (+96). So the Obama campaign anticipated that the states deciding after 2/20 would be in Clinton's favor overall, but also anticipated the 11 contest victory string for Obama (with exception of Maine). They even projected Texas exactly and Ohio within 1%.
Don't you want someone this smart running the government?
Pablo
June 1, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup.
June 1, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. A thousand times: Yes!
June 1, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pablo you make a great argument. I suggest you open up a new blog on this. No doubt many would like to know this and make a comment or two.
June 1, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone intelligent running the government? OMG, yes. That's one of the things I really like about Obama. He doesn't dumb things down like Bush or pander like Clinton.
June 1, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely!
June 1, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to know what their GE projections look like!
June 1, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a reason why the GE predictions aren't being made public by the Obama campaign. Because it's not looking good. They know it and are hoping to keep the super dels in the dark until it's too late.
June 1, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, maybe, it's just not a good idea to give the other team all your plays before the game starts. Like Hillary did with her "only compete in certain states and hope for a 50% + 1 victory". Yeah, the Repubs would have NEVER seen THAT one coming...
June 1, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word is he's hoping to flip states like NC, VA, MS and other southern states with large black populations into the dem column. But the polls have him behind in those states against McCain. G'luck with that - sounds like GREAT strategery.
June 2, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course polls like the latest SurveyUSA one have him actually ahead in VA already and beating McSame 276-238 in the electoral college.
June 2, 2008 5:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Clinton does much much better against McCain 327 - 194 with much less shaky states than Obama. That's why the Obama campaign has NO desire to be putting forth their shaky electoral college lead at this point in the race.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun01.html
June 2, 2008 7:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
We can now safely predict that Hillary will not get a single electoral vote.
June 2, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just saying if the superdels want another thisclose election, Clinton has the upper hand in the egenral DESPITE the fact all the media et al have been telling everyone she's lost already. That is unheard of the retain this level of support not just within the party but to do better in the general than the eventual nominee. Kind of foolish to ignore IMHO
June 2, 2008 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that you make at least one worthwhile point here - the level and intensity of support that Clinton has achieved in this race really is unprecedented, and it is a testament to her real strength as a candidate. I happen to have favored Sen Obama over her, but I cannot help but concede her obvious strengths as a candidate. Her supporters (such as yourself) are quite right to be proud of her and loyal to her.
June 2, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
If polls taken five months ahead of the election were worthwhile predictors of outcomes, Clinton would be the nominee right now. Citing polls at this stage in the game is just empty blather. We will never know whether Clinton would have been a strong candidate in this election because she will not be the nominee. We will know how strong a candidate Obama will be when we see the results in November. I am looking forward to your being pleasantly surprised.
June 2, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
riiiiight.
You should use that tin foil for baking potatoes, not as a cap liner.
June 2, 2008 5:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
pablo
Excellent. Can I borrow it to post in other blogs ? I will even credit you. :)
June 1, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Contrast this with Clinton's bold prediction when she said, "So I'm in it for the long run; it's not a very long run, it will be over by February fifth"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saBU6ux0hsQ
June 2, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a Wise Man once said HELL YES I want somebody that smart running the government!!!Anybody but the IRON *****!!!!
June 2, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is behaving this way today as this is her "graceful exit" strategy. By saying she has won the popular vote, in effect, she can rest telling herself (and the world) she won the nomination. In her narcissist world, this is the only way she can quit, so to speak.
June 1, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
And by doing so, giving her bitter supporters a talking point all summer and de-legitimizing Obama's victory. Class, all the way. She damn well better campaign her yellow pantsuited ass off for him.
June 1, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that's what it takes, fine. Just get her out of here. I never want to see her or Bill again.
June 1, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK. What have you done with real Eric Kleefeld ?
June 1, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
if head counts or the popular vote actually mattered, we'd have 'won' VietNam--where we killed a LOT more of them than they killed of us--and Al Gore'd have been president these last seven years...
June 1, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why, you're correct! And, that means that we've won the Iraq war, as well, doesn't it?
June 1, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary won 68% of the vote cast by the 16% of the people who bothered to showed up to vote.
How is this a huge victory? Hillary's only great accomplishment today was that she didn't fall off of the flatbed truck she was cruising around on while dancing to Ricky Martin tunes.
By the way, did the Clintons ever return all of the rugs and silverware they stole from the White House when they moved out?
June 1, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are all entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts. Please refrain from such outright lies regarding my overwhelming victory. In reality, I won 118% of the vote cast by the 312% of the people who bothered to show up to vote.
Coincidentally, this was exactly enough to officially put me over the top, past the finish line, and I am now officially the Democratic Party's nominee for President. Thank you, Puerto Rico! Si, se Denvero!
June 1, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol. Will you be still "haunting" us after June 3rd ? Please do. :)
June 1, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh I hope so! I like *this* Hillary Clinton so much better than the one that's out there.
June 1, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hold on a minute, Sweetie.
You've long been over the top. Not with any delegate count, mind you, but certainly with those ingenius moving goal posts that are certain to become all the rage in the NFL.
June 1, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Sweetie"! Well, I never. Like many secret reverse Muslim vampires, you are quite the sexist.
June 1, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry.
How about Sen. Sweetie? ;)
June 1, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would have been more appropriate before today's Puerto Rico primary, but now that I am officially President of the United States, Madame President Sweetie would be better.
June 1, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touche'.
As amk implored above, please stay with us throughout the remainder of the campaign, even though, as you say, you've alreaddy won.
June 1, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aargh!
"already".
GIVE US EDIT!
June 1, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
love the performances.
June 1, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let us not hesitate to remind Hillary that if she comes to Denver claiming she won the popular vote based on not counting caucus states (COLORADO!) she will have disenfranchised all us locals, who will be plentiful in and outside the convention.
June 1, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha, amazing point.
"All the way to that state that shouldn't count!" just doesn't have the same zing.
June 1, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kash - thank you - how does one open up a blog?
June 1, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the upper right hand corner of your screen- you should see "Your Blog (BLOG NOW!)" option. Click on Blog Now.
It should take you take text window.
Let me know if you need further help.
Cheers.
June 1, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean, it should take you to a text window page.
June 1, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've thought of posting too but have not had the courage to. Will it let me cut and paste from Word?
June 1, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
dijamo aka dija_nyk@match.com I missed you. U haven't returned by emails. I think we should unify the party by giving all the kkklintonistas a good fuck. I volunteer to fuck dijAMo. Each one teach one. Won't u fuck a kkklintonista today?
June 1, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who the hell is this retard?
This idiot is another example why we need "abuse" or "ignore" option on TPM.
June 1, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a real pos troll .
They spew that kkk crap.
Scum.
June 1, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow it looks like you got your mommy to help with your spelling this time! Good for you! But as I stated before my turnoffs include illiterate scummy misogynist pigs who have nothing better to do with their lives than stalk others on the internets. So while you may have improved your grasp of the english language, you still fall way short in that you are a scummy misogynist stalking pig. And let's be honest - you fall short in other AREAS as well because only someone who is overcompensating for serious....SHORTCOMINGS...would contine to stalk someone who has told you before NOT INTERESTED.
I don't mean to be harsh but you come across as very black norman bates/unibomber with sick twisted fantasies of dominating women. And honestly your love life sitch must be much worse than mine if you are so obsessed. I bet you are the 37 year old virgin saving up your allowance from mommy in the hopes of one day blowing it all on getting spitzered. Let's face it - that's the only way you have a shot at getting any.
So let me leave you with one last thought - Go fuck yourself. No one else in their right mind will do it for you.
Delete. Stalker. Post. PLEASE.
June 1, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
My god, where the hell did you pull misogynist out of? He was everything BUT misogynist!
June 1, 2008 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was very misogynistic and way out of line. Do not, under any circumstances, defend a comment that is offering to fuck a woman. That's nasty, creepy stalker shit, and it should stop.
Dijamo deserves better than that crap.
June 2, 2008 12:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
ooh i like the fiesty ones. Ps thanks for putting ur pic back up. The other pic wasn't the kitty I was hoping to get a look at.
June 1, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
STOP STALKING HER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 2, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are way over the line. Get a life and get some counseling.
June 2, 2008 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I second your call to have this asshole's account deleted.
June 2, 2008 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fantastic reply. Dj. Kick his troll ass.
June 2, 2008 5:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Irate Clinton supporter: 'God damn the Democrats'
"I came here for the vote of every American, and our Democratic Party threw us down the tubes," New Yorker Harriet Christian said after yesterday's meeting of the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Senator Clinton is the "best nominee possible" for President, said Ms. Christian, "and the Democrats are throwing the election away. For what? An inadequate black male who would not have been running had it not been a white woman that was running for President! And I'm not going to shut my mouth anymore!"
Gee, Harriet, why don't you just tell us how you really feel about him.
June 1, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm amazed Harriet was able to leave her reserved bar stool long enough to attend the meeting!
Wow.
June 1, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was like if Archie Bunker and Geraldine Ferraro had a bitter old love child.
:shudder:
June 1, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you really mean to imply that if a (stronger) white male candidate had been running, he would have forced Obama out. But because he was running against a (weaker) white female, he was able to hang around until he wins the nomination?
Is that really what you meant to say?
Because that's what you just said. I'm pro-Obama and I wouldn't make that argument.
What's next? If Obama weren't the better candidate Clinton would have won. If Obama hadn't gotten more delegates? raised more money? won more primaries? Why didn't Hillary just ask the RBC to make the second place finisher the nominee? It's just as reasonable and a whole lot less convoluted.
June 2, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fact:
Counting every state that has voted, as they voted, Clinton is winning the popular vote.
Clinton should take this to the convention.
June 1, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fogu2, thanks for changing your Avatar.
June 1, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. I'd been trying but kept getting an error. Turns out .gif works when .jpg won't.
June 1, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or she could leave the spineless dem party to the radicals, take her 18 million voters and run as an Independent.
June 1, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
gotalife, define radical. Seriously. What would seem "radical" to you -- define it. Give four ways that you would define what is a "radical."
June 1, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Compadre. That's unrealistic. If she's not president she has a great chance at being majority leader. That is a potentially powerful position considering Congress controls the purse.
Still, Clinton remains the best candidate for presidnet.
June 1, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you measure 'best' by how many lies they tell.
June 2, 2008 4:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah! Go Republican Trolls!
June 1, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If she took this to the convention and Obama lost in the general election she'd be vilified and have even higher negatives.
On the other hand, if she drops out within the next couple of weeks and Obama loses then she is once again set up as the frontrunner for the 2012 campaign.
She isn't taking this to the convention.
June 2, 2008 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Kash - I'll try to get to it tomorrow night - got to get to bed now.
pablo
June 1, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
All in all, this was a Pyrrhic victory for Clinton. To see why, let's look at the math:
Obama reduced the number of delegates he needed by 18, which comes out to a 27.2% reduction (as a percentage of what he previously needed).
To gain the same proportional reduction, Clinton would have to have at most a 140 delegate gap, which we all know is far lower than what she really needs.
June 1, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The simple reality of the popular vote "metric" is that nobody actually knows what the popular vote is. It isn't so much that it doesn't count, or Clinton's count is wrong, or dishonest(it is), but it is more simply the fact that the popular vote is entirely unknown. There is no popular vote metric, full stop.
I would appreciate it if when reporting Clinton's claim about the popular vote that reporters and bloggers would say something to the effect, "Clinton continues to claim a lead in the popular vote, but the reality of the 2008 primary is that there is no accurate popular vote count and in fact nobody knows what such a total would fairly be."
Oh and Harold Ickes is the biggest dick in the whole fucking world. I think he is even a bigger dick the real "Dick" Cheney. Thank god that him and these other Clinton advisors/punk-fuckerboy assholes will be nowhere near the levers of power in the United States.
June 1, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Best take on popular vote, ever. Besides, the pop vote has never been the metric for nominating the Prez, that is up to the delegates.
As to Ickes, he also seems to be sniffing glue (see above.)
June 1, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You bet your ass he's sniffing glue! ;)
June 1, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've noticed that Wolf Blitzer is the worst of the reporters doing this. He's like some kind of prime time live republican troll with too large a viewing audience.
June 2, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Before the Puerto Rico primary, Hillary Clinton needed 79.24% of the remaining delegates (uncommitted + edwards delegates) in order to claim the nomination. She had 1876.5, and there were 303.5 remaining delegates. She needed 79.24% of them to reach 2117.
Now, after winning Puerto Rico, she has 1914.5 delegates, with 248.5 remaining. She now needs 81.49% of the remaining delegates.
The gap just got a little wider today for Hillary.
How is this a "big win"?
June 1, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because...because...because....
....THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!1!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
June 1, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, this was the point I was making at 9:24 but you made it with mathematical rigor. The headline to this thread is wrong. The dynamic has changed for Hillary, and for the worse.
Btu that's because you and I are dealing with the real world, whereas Hillary with her New Math is in her own alternate universe.
This give this whole campaign a bizarre context, as if there were two separate races, one real one that Obama is in, and one woven out of fantasy that Hillary is in. Bizarre.
June 1, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's Last Hurrah.
The invincible, inevitable nominee machine that planned for a quick early February victory, while the top staff made big bucks, and then lost the race later that same month after Super Tuesday to a first-term Senator.
The Democratic Party has spoken.
And in spite of an 8 year return to the White House in the political wilderness given to us by the Clintons, Democrats embraced a real alternative in part because of Clinton fatigue.
June 1, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said. That will pretty much be the storyline. Still the veep choice is critical. It'd be funny though if Obama chose Hegel and McCain chose Liebermann--kinda like wife-swapping.
BTW, I like the new avatar. Actual buckeyes make me shudder. I went to school at Wisconsin.
June 2, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
An entitled curmudgeon named Ickes
Knew his committee was populated by dickes
His behavior, while rude
Leads one to conclude
That his balls are not geeting enough lickes!
June 1, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ia anyone worried that the reason she's playing this bizzaro losing cause out is because she has some nasty, potentially campaign killing dirt on Obama? I mean, she has to know the Creds committee and the Denver crap is a lost cause. I cant figure out her "strategy" for continuing??
June 2, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm...let's see...how to put it...She's got no hand.
She's got big debts, she's trying to figure out where to go from where, given that she went all in and has lost big time - she's lost money, she's lost political capital, she's lost allies, and she may even have lost some personal friends. It's kind of like the morning after a really, really long binge and you have to figure out how to fix all of the really dumb things that you did. She knows that she can't continue her run for the White House. I think that she knows that she can't turn this into any sort of a gain. At this point, she's got to be figuring out how to simply cut her losses.
June 2, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the only reason she continues is because she has no idea how to stop.
June 2, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
This race has been unchanged since freaking February. The only thing that has changed has been HRC's chances - they have gotten smaller and smaller as delegates got taken off of the table and she failed to make large gains on Obama.
PR is just another example. There are now 31 pledged and 200 super delegates left and she needs 210 to tie Obama.
June 2, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
IMHO what got HRC to this point is that she is addicted to overachieving. She can't quit. Now she got some deep pockets to fork over some more money, by convincing them she wont quit. Unfortunately she "wont quit" like a blackjack addict "wont quit" at the table, no matter how much they have lost. Because if they stop, they have to admit they DID lose. They "didnt lose" until they stop. HRC "didnt lose" because she didnt stop yet. Its misogynist to think otherwise...
June 2, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
A lot like the Bush Admin and Iraq, yes? And the Nixon Admin in Vietnam?
June 2, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is on his way to VICTORY!! Just look at the quality of his supporters. Tempered like steel...
Oh and Harold Ickes is the biggest dick in the whole fucking world.
June 2, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you think Ickes is the biggest dick in the world?
June 2, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is categorically untrue.
Lanny Davis is the biggest. Ickes is #2 in dickishness
;-)
June 2, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
just so we know then, can I put you down as a vote for "Harold is a good guy he was just having a bad hair day at the rules committee hearing?"
Seriously, anyone who stands behind the likes of Lanny Davis, Mark Penn, Harold Ickes and Terry Mac doesn't count for shit in my book. They are some of the biggest asshats that I have seen in a long time. They are like Bush's asshat droogies except they lose elections instead of winning them. Asshats like those four are the reason I'm registered an independent. I've never actually voted for a Republican for anything in my life, but I just can't bring myself to be a member of club which has a guy like Terry Mac or Lanny Davis in it. There are some guys and gals on the team who I like, but some are just a fucking embarrassment to sentient beings everywhere.
And why do I think Harold is the biggest dick in the world, well watch some of his performance from yesterday. Dick.
June 2, 2008 2:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has there EVER been a candidate with so many built in advantages that blew it like HRC did?
(Can we say that yet,or do we have to act like the republicans do when asked about GWBs ranking for absolute worst fucking president ever?)
June 2, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. Just the "Experienced Candidate" managed the task!
June 2, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
The more I think about it, the more I wonder: wouldn't it have been better if Bill Clinton was impeached back in 98? We'd have a president Gore in office w/o the Clinton baggage, ready to take the country in a new direction and running for re-election in 2000. That may have been just enough for him to defeat Bush, sparing us the Patriot Acts, Iraq War, Abu Gharib, &c &c. And finally we probably wouldn't have to deal with the Clintons again this round, with their self-serving new math, rank hypocrisy, and dirty electioneering. We should have gotten rid of the Clintons back then; now it is too late and the price we pay may very well be too high.
June 2, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alternative histories will drive you nuts, it ain't worth doing. But I feel ya dog.
I keep hoping some kinda Back to the Future plot get's W to stop drinking in college, and he goes on to become the commissioner of Major League Baseball like he wanted. The the world just go back to normal again...
June 2, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
"As for the popular vote metric, Clinton will only be able to claim such an advantage if ...."
as a point of information for the author, there is no such thing as the "popular vote metric", except in the minds of the HRC camp.
Total numbers of delegate votes determine who the party nominee will be; just as electoral college votes determine who the president will be.
There is no place in the nomination process that calls for the calculation of popular vote totals. Most caucus states do not tally or report popular vote counts.
Clinton cannot claim a popular vote advantage, as no such advantage can exist due to the nature of our nomination process. Perhaps she would like to change the rules, but for this election, only delegates count; even her campaign has stated that, numerous times.
June 2, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Hillary Clinton playing the "robbed card" as she careens to certain defeat?
She keeps claiming she has won the popular vote. This is ridiculous but most of her typical supporters don't get the math and tend to believe her.
She keeps saying she's been robbed of Michigan & Florida. This is also ridiculous but, again, the DNC details escape her average supporters.
She claims she is more electable. But this is absurd. Only Obama can bring out the huge turnouts to guarantee victory. They poll the same anyway.
She is also attributing her loss to sexism.
Obviously, she is ticking off Obama with this last minute rhetoric that seems to serve no purpose.
She claims to want to achieve "the steal" (which is impossible). But she knows if she did, she would be "required" by common sense to beg Obama to join the ticket. Anything else would be political suicide.
So she is going out spitting and hollering that it is she who has been robbed? Playing the "robbed card?"
She wants the VP slot. This whole charade is designed to cause Obama to be in the same position she would be in if she were successful in robbing him.
Well, many weeks ago she knew the nomination was out of reach. The strategy may, all along, have been to create such sympathy for her and to manufacture the impression that she had actually won but had been denied the nomination unfairly. This, she hoped would obligate Obama to select her as a running mate.
I know she's acting weird, but there may be some logic to it. It might work. Although he is probably really, really ticked off by now.
June 2, 2008 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
** Sorry to thread-jack **
Rumor has it that Larry Johnson of No Quarter is pushing some video of Michelle Obama supposedly screaming about "whitey".
Supposedly this was the big "Dirt Bomb" that the GOP is either holding onto to drop in October, or that LJ himself was going to drop tomorrow to try to influence the Super-Delegates.
In a bit of VERY refreshing news, someone from No Quarter, obviously a Hillary supporter, has gotten wind of the tape and it's contents and has spilled the beans about it and wants the folks over at Mydd.com and other Hillary sites to denounce the tape.
http://www.boomantribune.com/
Apparently Michelle is talking in reference to George Bush, saying things like "Why'd he let New Orleans drown?"
Larry Johnson wants you to hear "Whitey let New Orleans drown!"
What is refreshing about this link, especially the comments, is that this poster references the flap a few weeks ago when video surfaced from the 92 Clinton campaign and folks were trying to say that the Clinton campaign manager said that the folks in Indiana are shit. Many Obama supporters (myself included) jumped on this and thought we had proof that would doom their campaign. I find it very telling that a Hillary supporter, who is probably not feeling all that satisfied with the results of Saturday has the maturity and sense of party to call this supposed Michelle tape what it is, and I didn't have the same sense of decency when the same was happening to them.
To this Hillary supporter, and in fact to all of you, I apologize.
True Democrats, whatever your candidate of choice, this rumored tape may really exist and appears to be a fabrication of interpretation rather than an actual explosive revelation destined to doom the Obama campaign. Obama supporters will owe thanks to this poster that has split from the No Quarter site and spoke his conscience rather than partaking in a scorched earth policy.
Should this fabrication hit Fox News tomorrow, there are enough Democrats of all persuasion that we can flood the air waves, bandwidth and phone lines of the media to demand full context and verification.
Expect this tape to be edited, much like the first edition of the "For the first time in my life, I'm proud of my country" tape was.
But we're learning this election cycle that the FUD media has no defense against an organized and educated and united movement for change.
June 2, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
No need to apologize, just need to continue to smack-down false shit like that tape, and to work our asses off to make sure we Democrats win in November from the top of the ticket to the bottom.
June 2, 2008 5:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any Christian (or anyone with scruples, for that matter) who favors Clinton must remember that they are voting to put adulterers in the highest office in the land.
What do you say about a president who allows their spouse to violate their marriage? She has never even publicly denounced him for his transgressions.
Both lawyers, yet neither capable of sustaining a simple contract.
If she will not object to her husband's crimes, what other crimes will she allow on her watch?
How is it not yet clear to you that these are not people of scruples and honor, but rather scoundrels lusting for money and blood?
June 2, 2008 3:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh no! Adulterers!
If this is your problem with the Clinton's, you're retarded.
June 2, 2008 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
My point is that these people are liars and cheats and cannot be trusted to do the right thing.
June 2, 2008 4:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you there, but the whole adulterer angle is tired.
When a paragraph begins with "Any Christian", my hackles tend to go up.
June 2, 2008 4:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
When I hear it, I try to hide Jon Stewart.
June 2, 2008 7:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can her ass get any bigger? I think with every lie she tells, its not her nose that grows.
June 2, 2008 6:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can her ass get any bigger? I think with every lie she tells, its not her nose that grows.
June 2, 2008 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink