Bloodbath Alert: GOP Losing Its Grip On Multiple House Seats
This is really something. We already knew that House Dems are expected to rack up major victories this fall, but this latest development is really eye-opening.
The Cook Political Report, whose ratings of Congressional races are well-respected by political pros, has just changed its ratings on ten House races -- and has changed them all in favor of the Dems.
It's very rare that Cook flips so many ratings at once -- much less flipping them all in favor of the same political party.
Check out the list of races, right after the jump.
CA-04 - OPEN (Doolittle)- Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CO-04 - Marilyn Musgrave - Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-04 - Chris Shays - Lean Republican to Toss Up
IL-10 - Mark Kirk - Lean Republican to Toss Up
NM-02 - OPEN (Pearce) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-29 - Randy Kuhl - Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC-08 - Robin Hayes - Lean Republican to Toss Up
OH-01 - Steve Chabot - Lean Republican to Toss Up
VA-02 - Thelma Drake - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WA-08 - Dave Reichert - Lean Republican to Toss Up
According to Cook's ratings, Republicans now occupy 21 out of 27 seats in the Toss-Up category, painting a very stark picture of GOP vulnerability.
Eric?
You just made my day by posting this:
CT-04 - Chris Shays - Lean Republican to Toss Up
I want Chris Shays dumped.
June 5, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
June 5, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me THREE! Soooo bad, me three.
June 5, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, that's not change we can believe in. Heh heh heh...
June 5, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, that should be "Heh heh heh [/creepy smile]"
June 5, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would you dare say the Republicans have entered "The Danger Zone"?
June 5, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
June 5, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFL
Touché
June 5, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are at least living in the House at Poo Corner.
June 6, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh heh heh indeed!
No doubt the root of the GOP's problem lies in their shortage of dehydrated babies!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DqR7zis99I
June 5, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I said in the other thread, in McCain/GOP world:
Black dehydrated babies = Sea Monkeys™.
June 5, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR AMERICA!!!
June 5, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I need to make up some kind of song I can sing every time I see one of these posts - there are so many lately.
I want to sing. I want to dance. I cannot fucking believe this!
This is the honest truth: In '04, I started crying at 9 PM, election night. I cried myself to sleep Tuesday night, woke up crying Wednesday morning, cried all day, cried myself to sleep, woke up screaming Thursday, cried all day, cried myself to sleep. I finally just I think got dehydrated by Friday afternoon - cause I finally stopped crying steadily. I still cried off and on through the weekend.
I felt like there was a sky full of dark iron just getting ready to fall on my head and everyone else's. I have never been so devastated or so terrified of my own government.
And in 4 years, here we are. It's a lot to take in. America actually seems to be working, still - and way better than I had hoped for awhile.
June 5, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the 2004 election, I thought it would take 12 years for the Dems to get back the White House and any sort of majority in either chamber of Congress.
I still thought that in 2006. But when Ned Lamont won way more votes at the Democratic state meeting here in CT than he needed in order to get his name on the ballot, I thought "Hmmmmm."
And when he won the primary, it was then that I thought "OK, maybe peope are starting to get pissed off with what's going on in this country".
I think his primary election win had a far deeper impact than people may have recognized at the time. It was a signal to every person across the country (who was paying attention) that yes, a strong anti-war candidate might actually have a chance.
I was so proud of Democrats in CT in August 2006.
June 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think so, too, CT. Of course it was very close to you and probably you could see it better. Those of us who followed it closely and were pushing and donating money to Lamont also could see it.
Other people in the country who are not from CT probably did miss it altogether.
I was feeling better by '06. When I got up the morning after that election and found out that Dallas County had thrown out 49 Republican judges in one fell swoop and replaced them with 49 Democrats, I knew we were going get out of here. We reversed the massacre of the Reagan off -year election, which really is what turned Dallas Co. Republican - we were conservative Democrats forever. Now we aren't even very conservative in this county. We have an openly lesbian Hispanic Democratic County sheriff, for instance.
But I still didn't dream it could be this good - dear goddesses, please let it be this good - don't wind us up and then drop us again. Please.
June 5, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about good times by C&K
the main theme is:
and the best is yet to come
June 5, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.mele.com/hawaiianMP3s/481_01.mp3
June 5, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
remember what ben franklin said
Goddess helps those that helps themselves
if Democrats wanna help themselves, they should find themselves looking up ActBlue
I don't wanna hope or pray that we win
I wanna help make sure we bury these bastards
the landslide started with Paul Hackett, Ned Lamontm and winning candidates like Jerry McNerney (send him some bucks too)
2006 was a good year, but 2008 is looking even better
June 6, 2008 12:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ben Franklin said that?
June 6, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too!
How about:
More, more, more
Haddaya like it, haddaya like it?
More, more, more
Haddaya like it, haddaya like it?
More, more, more
Haddaya like it,
haddaya like your love?
Perfect song to learn the electric slide to. That will be useful at wedding receptions, too. (snort).
June 5, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I likes it!
June 5, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember losing all hope once the returns from Ohio started trickling in. The next day at work, I happened to be offered a 2-year position in Seoul, Korea, which I accepted on the spot because I was so pissed off.
June 5, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
As for songs try: "Ding, Dong! The are gone...."
Actually I'm waiting for election day this year - and this time I am fully optimistic.
In regard to election night 2004:
I actually was hospitalized for atrial defibulation in my heart that night.
I had had a cold or the flu and still had a bad cough. They put me in quarantine because there was no record of atrial defibulation in someone under 50 before, let alone 45. They thought I had some new asian or avian or both flue and that this was an attribute of that. Luckily then, though not now, I had good healthcare.
The cough stayed until January.
I jog a lot, even today my hear beat is in the low 50s. The events of that day and night were truly a shock to the system.
I knew what it meant, not just for my country but for me personally. Massive and unrelenting poverty as my job was being outsourced to H1B visas holders. I am now teaching English in Asia to pay my school loans and credit card bills and waiting until Bush and the Republicans are chased out of power.
Maybe soon I can come home. At least we have a sound strategist at the helm. He's got a great head for strategy, tactics, oratorical skills, that booming voice box, and eight years of catastrophic policies.
June 6, 2008 6:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
But a sign of things to come.
June 5, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmmmmm, I want to lick their salty tears as they pack up their boxes and head for the airport.
Yummy!
With the Obama Effect bump to turnout, I bet we'll see most of these going BLUE.
And I bet if Richardson was VP we could get that "Lean Republican" race too.
June 5, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thought of an unemployed Marilyn Musgrave makes my entire day.
June 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
O god yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 5, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
In NY-29 I have to believe that we're in much better shape than "toss-up" now. After Eric Massa nearly beat him in '06 and being that Kuhl has been one of the worst kind of bushies out there, I think its definitely a leans democratic by now... Here's hoping!
June 5, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bwahahaha. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fasci...um, Republicans. I especially like the Robin Hayes one. Partly because I live in NC and partly 'cause he's a real jackass.
June 5, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It makes me weep to think that any Republican will win any seat in the up-coming election.
We need to start thinking 435 . . .
June 5, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go big, or stay home....
June 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The shift that is occurring in the political culture is palpable, to say the least. The tangible results of a substantial Democratic change in the electoral map is but one consequence. Another, is the diminishment of influence of the neocon pundit. Neocons are fast becoming a Jurassic breed (as conservatism in America is in the throws of necessarily needing to redefine themselves). I can see it already, but man this is going to be great a few months and years from now. Time for the msm to grow up I guess.
June 5, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw this coming awhile back - it's not just politics - the whole culture is going back to the left. The correction is almost overdue - these Repugs were different and they pushed us to such an extreme that I was worried. But I started sensing a slight breeze every once in awhile in '05, coming out of different direction and I kept telling people (god I must be boring) that the culture was shifting.
I was right. We're going to be a progressive country again. It's past time and I do really believe this.
June 5, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some damn good prognosticating there, Tena. ;)
June 5, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say it with me now: LANDSLIDE!
June 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, it's a comin. Tsunami style.
June 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
67 Senate seats and impeachment for 5 justices
help Barack Obama remake the SCOTUS
what ??? too soon ???
June 6, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/05/obama-on-congress-ill-whup-em/
This shows how much Barack is touching people! tena..almost had some majormoist in my eyes when i read this...
June 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link - lovely.
I keep wanting think he's too good to be true. Then I remember the interview with Bill Richardson that I read, shortly after he endorsed Barack (which arguably ended the primary right there, but I digress). Richardson said: He seems too good to be true, but he's not too good to be true; he really is all that. And I believe Bill, since every one else who knows Obama says the same damn thing. And they say just what I see and what I hear from him.
I'm almost overwhelmed. He's come out swinging, too - he has wasted no time in consolidating his power base and taking control of the Democratic Party. He did all that so fast and with such finesse that it was breathtaking.
So I've got my seatbelt fastened, I'm totally ignoring the No Smoking sign, and I'm ready for this ride.
;)
June 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You crack me up!
On a daily basis, no less!
June 5, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I consider that high praise indeed from you.
thanks.
June 5, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are most welcome.
June 5, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keli-goff/obama-has-made-history-bu_b_105491.html
And found myself crying.
It's like I woke up in a whole new America.
June 5, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robin Hayes....oh how sweet that would be!
June 5, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
20-seat dem pickup in the us house?
June 5, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tenax here is the song:
http://www.mele.com/hawaiianMP3s/481_01.mp3
June 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are from Hawaii, by any chance?
I was born there. Haven't ever been back.
June 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah going to NOLA for Obama in 3 weeks till November.
Live in Hilo
June 5, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
O cool!
June 5, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
So that's why you two are for Obama.
seriously though, the one passage I liked in Obama's first book was that people who he was trying to organize in Chicago during the winter wondered "why are you here and not on the beach in Waikiki?"
Sound midwestern logic!
June 5, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but I like the numbers in the MO poll at the right. Isn't this the second MO poll showing Obama even or slightly ahead of Grandpa Munster? If O can move the state from lean-Rep to slam-dunk Dem, it's all over. I wonder what the Missouri guy in the kilt thinks of this...
June 5, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
In IL-13 we're gonna take out Judy Borg Biggert and send Scott Harper to congress. I kid you not that's her real middle name.
Harper's a smart guy running a professional campaign. He raised more by March 31st than any other Dem in this district raised for a whole campaign. He needs more of course but I've been phonebanking and canvassing for him for a couple of months now and even Repubs are fed up with their party. I'll be out there again tonight for the third time this week. We talked him out of going back to Oxford for his PhD in social ethics to run.
Biggert has been in DC for 10 years after promising to term limit herself to two terms. Says she "discovered" you can't get anything done in Washington without seniority. In the meantime she's hardly done anything, even with Denny Hastert right next door all those years. Last year she was finally rewarded with ranking membership on a banking subcommittee. She's been a loyal soldier for Bush. Voted with him over 80% of the time and with DeLay and Hastert 93% of the time.
There's a lot of that going on out there. We're gonna take 3 or 4 House seats in the Chicago suburbs alone.
I urge everyone to get involved. Obama needs your help but our senate and house candidates need it even more. And it's a hell of lot of fun talking to voters on behalf of our candidates.
June 5, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent. I would also point out that in Ohio CDs hed by the GOP in -01, -02, and -03 (cinci and burbs), and -15 and -16 (columbus and burbs) are all winnable. there may even be 1 or 2 more. our state Dem Attn General just resigned after a senior adviser got hit with sexual harassment charges. we'll see how that plays out.
June 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
All three Ohio Repub seats are winnable, especially the one I'm in where Mary Jo Kilroy is running again afte almost knocking off Deb Pryce in 2006.
Because Ted Strickland and the Dems in Ohio acted quickly vis-a-vis Dann, I don't think that will have any appreciable impact on this year's outlook for Dems this year in Ohio.
June 5, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hiya, Mark.
Hey, please talk to your candidate Scott about gettin' up-to-speed on the InterToobz. I just went to his site to make a contribution, and it can't be done on-line. Ya hafta mail in a check. Feh.
Lemme know when this gets done; I'll come back and put a few bucks in the kitty.
June 5, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA-02 - Thelma Drake - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
I like "ousted" Republican better. Her vote against Senator Webb's veterans' GI bill and then her mea culpa to cover her ass has shown her true colors to the decidely miltary district she represents, or alleges to represent.....
I'm going to work my butt off to send this Bush sycophant back to real estate work.
June 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, whenever anyone mentions polls, particularly polls which show McCain beating Obama (like today's Gallup poll), the automatic response is that polls are meaningless 5 months before an election.
June 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that it's too early to bust out the Champagne.
But, let's be realistic. That dems even have a shot at these races is great news.
As for Gallup... well, we'll see. I like the odds of Obama winning. Frankly, right after a tightly contested Primary, McCain should have nice lead.
Most "experts" predict Obama will get a 10 point bounce after Hillary officially concedes. Again, you can come back in November, and we'll see who was right.
June 5, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
that is one poll. this is based on multiple polls. multiple polls, in different geographic areas- no less, CAN signify a trend. emphasis on can.
also this is the cook report, which is highly reputable. a little different than say rasmussen or arg.
not sure which poll you are referring to from yesterday.
playing devil's advocate here. i agree with you. i will celebrate when it's september, october, and november and we have these numbers.
for now i will hold off, though i really like what i see on the horizon, IMHO.
June 5, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised this one took so long. He barely won in 2006 and his challenger, Darcy Burner is coming back for a rematch.
June 5, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And with Obama at the top of the ticket this will only put more wind in her sails in a state Obama won in a walk.
June 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Rush's Operation Chaos failed to counter this event. :))
June 5, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually it worked. Once they switched, they stayed. Hehehe
June 5, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
here's a long term trend to think of as well. The 2010 census is coming with CDs being redrawn and therefore the number of electral votes that each state has during a presidental election being changed. The fastest growing areas in terms of population of liberal leaning if not wholely progressive areas of the country. People of color in particular and progressive in general will be the greatest beneficiaries of this new census formulation.
interms of the Presidential election states in the 'blue' column like WA,OR,CA,NY should gain electoral votes, states that should become blue this election like CO,NM,VA will also gain seats and states that are red like WV,KY,TN,LA will lose electoral votes.
There is a long term change occuring in this country that I believe will stop us from being the most politically backward of the industrialized nations. We are going to begin to join the word and grow up as a country.
June 5, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now is the time to support our Senate hopefuls.
VA, NH, NM, CO, MN, OR, AK, NC, TX, and OK add up to a 60-vote no-Lieberman filibuster-proof majority.
Franken, Merkley, Begich, Hagan, Noriega, and Rice especially need our help.
June 5, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding. Here in Oregon we have a good Democratic candidate to take out GOP Senator Gordon Smith, in the form of State Leg. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley, who is an astoundingly good progressive legislator, who needs all the help we can give him against the Smith war chest of $10 mil.
Smith is polling at 47% and Merkley is in a statistical tie after a hard-fought Dem. primary. So PLEASE consider helping Jeff knock out Smith by clicking here.
June 5, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crap... damn close tag screwed up:
Here in Oregon we have a good Democratic candidate to take out GOP Senator Gordon Smith, in the form of State Leg. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley, who is an astoundingly good progressive legislator, who needs all the help we can give him against the Smith war chest of $10 mil.
Smith is polling at 47% and Merkley is in a statistical tie after a hard-fought Dem. primary. So PLEASE consider helping Jeff knock out Smith by clicking here.
June 5, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is the second Missouri poll showing Obama beating McCain.
If Obama wins "Mizzurah," it's definitely O-VER for Grampy McSame.
June 5, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's looking like a BIG Democratic year.
John McCain Voted to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike
June 5, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that after 9/11, Bush had a 90 percent approval rating which he squandered.
Had the republicans not been so arrogant, partisan, greedy, incompetent, and stupid, we might REALLY be looking at a permanent republican majority.
Scary thought, huh?
June 5, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What an accurate insightful post! Thank you.
June 5, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I won't be truly happy until Adam Putnam,
Patrick McHenry and Jeb Hensarling are
"on the street".
I watched that weasel Hensarling on Washington
Journal this morning. "Democrat Party".
"Democrat bill". "Democrat leadership".
Fingernails on the chalkboard. Wanted to take
him to task, but couldn't get through.
June 5, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I watched that too. He is such a blatant liar. And the "Democrat" thing is so smarmy and disgusting ala DeLay. Nice try on calling in tho. Every time I see him I kinda wanna to grab his helmet hair and rip it right off.
June 5, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to see Musgrave's name on the list. Hope it sticks.
June 5, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
WA-08
Glad to see Mr. Richert's name on the list.
Darcy Burner needs help send money....
June 5, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of all the political commentators out there, I consistently find Charlie Cook and his very very able disciple Chuck Todd, now at MSNBC, to be the finest prognosticator in America, the ultimate poll, pundit, and political trend seer.
Ah. It is looking good. Combination of lots of factors: Republicans shooting themselves in the foot far too many times--their name has become synonomous with Katrina and lying about war and the most unpopular president in modern times and a particularly shrewd and talented group of congress and senate folks. Now that we can put the primary behind, I sure looks like a good good year coming! And then years!
June 5, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe there definitely is a huge change in the political pulse of this country. Unfortunately it took lots: loss of jobs, weather disasters, mortgage failure fiascos, huge raises in the cost at the pump to name a few. Up until these situations began to slowly effect daily life I think a good majority of working Americans were pretty laid back and apathetic. I have asked myself a thousand times how can people just not care or be concerned. It took hurting to make them wake up! But . . "Better Late Than Never" . May this just be the beginning, gaining in momentum and rekindling what being an American is really about. Go Obama We Can Do!"
June 5, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to admit I get a laugh every time I see a post like this: Democratic congressional nominee Joe Fringe is being written off as a second tier candidate in the race against his entrenched Repuiblican opponent, but there are signs he has a real chance this year....blah blah blah.
Then he goes on to lose in November by 50 points.
Thanks for the unintentional hilarity, folks.
June 5, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
On a side note regarding the Mark Kirk race, I have to say I was majorly bummed to learn that his opponent, Dan Seals, is not the country western singer. Instead, he's just another bozo politician. Disappointing.
June 5, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great.
We may not get a 60 veto proof vote in the Senate, but we can now kick Lieberman out to his GOP blood brothers and build-up a big house majority too.
Thank puppet Bush and his puppet-master Cheney for this. Also their secret puppet-masters. It was a costly eight years though.
June 5, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
While it's nice to hear about the Congressional Republicans deepening problems, think back to the last election and remember how the anticipated Democratic gains shrunk over the course of the election, we still won control, but not nearly as much as we had expected. The moral of the story is keep working hard for your candidates, and don't count your chickens before they hatch.
June 6, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
what are you talking about ???
cept for Harold Ford in Tennessee, we won every closely contested Senate seat in 2006
I remember that a week before the election, no serious person would admit that was possible
this year we're contesting just about EVERY repuglitard Senate seat on the menu, and we're winning in places nobody thought possible
June 6, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
instead of sitting around gloating, we should be handing these guys an ANCHOR
http://www.actblue.com/directory
CA 04, donate to Charlie Brown
IL 10, donate to Dan Seals
NC 08, Donate to Larry Kissell
OH 01, donate to Steve Driehaus
CO 04, CT 04, NM 02, NY 29 and VA 02 are still in the process of choosing a Democrat to oppose these seats. You can donate to the candidates or to a fund for the future candidate
and WA 08 doesn't officially have a candidate yet eithem but donate some cash to Darcy Burner anyway
don't wait for the repuglitard party to disappear
help it happen
send checks till ya get writter's cramp
June 6, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that old Dylan song comes to mind....
"Come senators, congressmen, please heed the call. Don't stand in the doorway, don't block up the hall," and: "Come mothers and fathers throughout the land, and don't criticise what you can't understand. Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command. Your old road is rapidly agin'."
June 6, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink