AP: Obama Has Clinched The Nomination
The Associated Press weighs in with another big one (and with a bit of luck on the news orgs' part, this one will turn out to be accurate)...
Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.
Of course, the AP's track record today leaves something to be desired. But put that aside for a sec.
The key to understanding how the AP reached its conclusion is this from later in the piece...
The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.
The AP is including over a dozen super-dels who privately indicated to the news org that they will ultimately back Obama, should the contest continue, but haven't said so publicly. Not everyone counts private commitments; the Obama campaign, for instance, only includes publicly declared supporters in its super-delegate tally.
So this isn't an official clinching of the nomination, obviously. And indeed, it's really a no-brainer that Obama has reached the magic number when you factor in private commitments. It's highly likely that far more than a dozen have privately signaled support for Obama.
THIS
June 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
June 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
June 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS FOR ALL OF AMERICA!!!!
June 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR DEMOCRATS.
June 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR WHINY ELITISTS
June 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS!!!
June 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
June 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE WORLD
June 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
IN DENIAL ABOUT OBAMA'S CHANCES OF WINNING IN NOVEMBER
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121201747075327643.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
June 3, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!
June 3, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOTALIFE,...
June 3, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
BWHAAHAA!
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
USA!!!
June 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMBAO
June 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
BILL O'REILLY!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
FIDEL CASTRO! VIVA FIDEL!!
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
LANNY "SPITTIN' AND SPUTTERIN'" DAVIS!!!
June 3, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
TERRY McAWFUL!!!
June 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
HARRIET CHRISTIAN!!!1!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!
June 3, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
BILLY GLAD!!!
June 3, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND BITTER LITTLE MONKEYS EVERYWHERE!!!
June 3, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOOHOO!!!
June 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously AP has a very specific number of private commitments in mind, and were just waiting for public endorsements to hit the needed threshold today. Perhaps these private commitments are those that will publicly endorse after the polls close in SD and MT.
June 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crappiest timing on earth - I just finished putting my mascara on.
now it's all down my face.
June 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
small price to pay for the beginning of a new era.
June 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crying? Or lauging and crying?
;)
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have, hands down, the best avatar.
June 3, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks CT Voter. Say hi to pete!
June 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where'd Stash get off to, anyway?
June 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's at home. No doubt charming all my neighbors. I'll bring him back in a few days. This is my Unity Zebra. After celebrations today and tomorrow, Stash will be back.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I can't tell by looking at your avatar. Just don't cry ....
June 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
w00t!
Yes we did!!!!!
June 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! I was planning a good night, now it's gonna be great!!! Woot, woot!
June 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope the private confirmations come out by then to make it official.
June 3, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn it - I can't believe we finally summited!!!!!!!!!!!
June 3, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not there yet. This is final base camp. Summit is Nov. 4.
June 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a point.
June 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is K2.
Everest lies ahead.
Let's not put down the icepicks and crampons yet.
Mt. Grampy McSame doesn't look as challenging, but it's still a hill to be conquered.
Let's celebrate tonite.
Let's party in November.
Let's party EPIC in January.
June 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
January is when I expect to see dancing in the streets around Dallas County,
And I'm planning on joining in.
June 3, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I imagine it being like the crazy tree-top party with the Ewoks from "Return of the Jedi."
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
...with a dash of World War II soldier returning home ticker-tape parade as icing on the cake.
June 3, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I'll be in DC for that. Can't miss history.
June 3, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
OO - lucky!
June 3, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about a TPM Inaugural Party in DC in January? It would be a good fundraiser for TPM and fun for everyone in the community. Josh, Greg, Eric, Andrew -- anyone listening?
June 3, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome idea.
June 3, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto, missed your comment and said same below. TPM Inaugural Ball!
June 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to be picky but K2 is one of the most technically difficult climbs in the world. Everest is a tiny bit taller but is a relative cake-walk.
Unless of course you are insinuating that the tough battle is over and we move on to the easy victory lap.
June 3, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton, vis-a-vis McCain, is K2.
June 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, I didn't read your whole post. I'm so overcome with pre-excitement excitement that will probably lead to post-excitement drunkenness.
June 3, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
What do you mean we?
You actually are so arrogant as to believe short of casting a single vote you had anything to do with Obama winning?
If anything your stinky breath drove voters away.
June 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you have anything to do with helping Clinton?
Give up! All is futile!
June 3, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You all are welcome to stay at my house outside DC for Inauguration Week. I think TPM should sponsor an Inaugural Ball!
June 3, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
What say you now, McAuliffe?
June 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
He can't hear you. I heard that he's deep into a bottle of rum at the moment.
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Associated Press hasn't been exactly credible today, people.
June 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, but let us celebrate our headline. The first of many to come...
June 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope we hear who the vp will be tonight at excel!!! This is going to be a great night!!!!!
YES YES YES.
June 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not a chance.
That's the kind of news you keep for a time when you want to grab the news cycle.
Winning the nomination is enough to command the spotlight.
Save the VP selection for during the GOP convention.
Announce it during McCain's acceptance speech :)
June 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ARG poll in SD is bullshit! Daily Kos has a handful of polls from SD that has Obama winning all of them!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/3/114823/0206/721/528113
June 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm waiting to have a public announcement from all the news orgs. As soon as I get that, I'm crackin' out the champagne.
June 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its time for the party to come together and put the smackdown on John McBush!
June 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOHOOOO WOHOOOOO YES WE CAN. OBAMA WON. CONGRATULATIONS OBAMA.
STAND CLEAR 8BAMA NATION ON ITS WAY!!!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry for being bold and loud.....I wanted to say that since FEB. 08ABA NATION RULES.
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scream it, Kash, don't be shy about it!
June 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would that nation include 57 states?
June 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
No snipers allowed!!!
June 3, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
AP is jumping the gun again.
June 3, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say so.
June 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton: Some say Yes we Can, but it doesn't mean we will.
2,118 Delegates later: YES WE WILL!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today, is a historic day. For the first time in our nation's history, an African American will become the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party.
Think about that for a moment.
Think about 400 years of slavery. Think about Martin. Think about The Dream. Think about the ugly stain that is a part of our history. Today something is happening that has never happened in our nation's history. Today is a day that all Democrats and all Americans can take great pride and joy in.
Today is not about Hillary Clinton. Today is not about Bill Clinton. They have had their days in the sun. No matter what the Clinton campaign says or does, today is Barack Obama's day. Today is a day of celebration for all Americans. It's time to turn the page on the past and look toward our future. Today is a historic day.
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
O damn it -knock it off - I'll never get myself presentable to leave the house at this rate -now I'm sobbing.
YES WE DID!
June 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
turn off the computer, my .02
June 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always thought the first would be a Republican who's spent his life in a uniform, like Powell.
The fact that this is a black candidate who is a Democrat, who is inspirational, who seems to want to do what I want a president to do, KICKS ASS!!!
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! Thanks! Blog it, please.
June 3, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beautifully put.
It's certainly not a day I ever expected in my lifetime.
Now let's make sure that January 20, 2009 is even more historic!
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how awesome is it that he'll officially become the nominee and make his acceptance speech at the convention on the anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have a Dream" speech - this is truly zeitgeist. I'm getting verklempt just thinking about it, and all I can say is, it's about goddamned time!!! YES!! WE!! CAN!! ;)
June 3, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
here here
June 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
PARTY TIME!!!
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife,
OOOOOOHH!!!! Did Michelle call a white person a bad name??? or something??? Do you honestly think a right wing-created smear will even come close to competing with the news of the first African American becoming the Presidential candidate????
The world is watching and could not care about anything other than Obama taking the nomination, moron!
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
She didn't even do that.
June 3, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who wishes the media wouldn't jump the gun like this?
Let Montana and South Dakota have their say.
Then announce Superdelegates BY NAME that will put Obama over the top.
That way, there are no credible calls of "media bias" when Obama wins tonight.
June 3, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you there. But not cause of "media bias", but simply because of jumping the gun. I want the counter on CNN to say 2,118. Or, I want an official statement from Hillary Clinton saying she's suspended or ending her campaign.
June 3, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
True that.
June 3, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It's ridiculous for AP to report it this way on reports of 'private endorsements'--let those become public before announcing.
June 3, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
THAT'S when I'm poppin' the Perignon!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
A line of blow would be more appropriate.
June 3, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, too, but this is just pushing those shy SuperDels out into the sun, I guess. Let's go already, no reason to wait.
June 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This might be terrific news. But . . . do I see some zombie fingers clawing the dirt, trying to escape the grave and fight on?
June 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's Gotalife.
Disregard him. He'll still be threatening about some bombshell revelation when Obama is handing the keys to the White House to Claire McKaskill in 2017.
June 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't the news I am looking for, until the Obama camp has put a delicate but full-court press on a good number of the HRC SDs to switch. Anything less, and HRC will not concede the nomination, although she may concede the delegate count.
June 3, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love all of you, but damn I hate party poopers.
June 3, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Tena, but this is not official. It's no different than my knowing Obama had the nomination after SC and IN, or even after Super Tuesday, or his 10 wins after that. I've known it all along. Give me something official and I'll be right there with you. =)
June 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is nothing official until August, when delegates actually cast their votes at the convention and Obama then makes his acceptance speech. That's why I agree with the commenter above who said that once it is clear Obama does have the numbers, it would be helpful if a number of other supers switched their voted to rally solidly behind him. As long as Clinton still sees the possibility of an August win by continuing to lobhy superdelegates and trashing Obama's electability behind the scenes, she might stay in.
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but he hasn't clinched the needed number of delegates except from unnamed sources in the AP who apparently know of unnamed super delegates who will not publicly announce their support. I want the support public, and I want the 2,118 official and on the books. Period. That, and/or, as I've said, Hillary to officially end her campaign.
June 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
That headline IS pure gold.
I can't wait to go see Obama tonight.
June 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
apologies. :) - please return to doing your snoopy dance.
June 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, consider me officially a pooper, then.
I was dancing around my house this morning, exulting in the fact that Clinton was going to recognize Obama as the nominee, tonight, and that maybe, just maybe, some of the bitterness and division would start to subside.
Then I took my dog for a walk.
Got home, and found, "Nope. Ain't gonna happen."
The Associated Press should just STFU until the voting is finished in Montana and South Dakota.
Sorry to be such a wet blanket.
June 3, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
*** NOAA WEATHER ALERT ***
** BREAKING **
A SEVERE MONKEY STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VICINITY OF LOWER BEGALA. PLEASE SEEK COVER IMMEDIATELY!
June 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha. And cool little avatar. I prefer the Daleks myself, but Cybermen are cool too. :)
June 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMAO
June 3, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is hilarious. I was just thinking about the conundrum: Hillary won't concede until he gets enough supers to clinch, but supers won't declare until Hillary concedes. Was wondering how this problem might be solved. Answer: Declare the undeclared supers so they can then declare under the cover of their own undeclared declarations. That's some postmodern triangulation.
June 3, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmmmmm. I think you might have something here. It certainly is an interesting pickle the supadelegates are in.
June 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brilliant!
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the whole thing is brilliant - it forces the narrative to have the AP just flat declare this, finally.
June 3, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF one more person says that we have to give HRC "time" to exit "in her own way" I will scream. This is Obama's moment. Tonight. He's worked for it. He's earned it, tenfold because he has tiptoed so carefully around HRC. I am tired of Obama being asked to defer, defer, defer to her alleged sensibilities. What about his? Obama is due his just reward. Now.
June 3, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree completely. I want the number to say 2,118. I don't doubt that it will. I just want to see it. That and/or Hillary Clinton saying "I have suspended my campaign for the presidency".
June 3, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need to give Hillary time to exit in her own way. (Sorry, just needed to hear someone scream :0)
June 3, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no "Hillary way" to exit, because Hillary does not intend to exit.
That's called a conundrum. She will need to be shown the door, with as little drama as possible, but nevertheless...
June 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more. Obama should not hold back, defer and wait. The media, SDs, and much of the electorate was hood-winked and bound into doing so just before Ohio and Texas.
But we are dealing with the ways of the HRC campaign. So it's the inside game (see my post-above), and the counter-leverage push back that needs to to also occur to force HRC, the sooner the better, to not only concede the delegate count but the nomination.
So there is no more ambiguity, parsing and specious game playing by the HRC camp between now and the Convention.
June 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
p.s. Let alone at the Convention. Wouldn't put it past them. Let's stick a fork in this and get on with kicking some neocon butt.
June 3, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I took a drive around the Xcel center at lunchtime today. People are starting to line up and the press tents are all set up. A very nice buzz going.
It will be nuts by the time I leave work, lol. There is a big high school graduation ceremony in the building next door that starts at about 5:30. I think most of those people are shuttling in but it will still be a scene downtown.
I'm extremely crowd-averse so I'm not sure I'll be there even though I realize it's an amazing bit of history happening here. I'll have to see how gridlocked the city gets and play it by ear.
June 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
GO! Just have a couple of drinks first to calm your nerves. It'll be a moment in history you'll talk about for the rest of your life, no doubt. I envy you!
June 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
BARAKARATE!!!
June 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that one of the Obamartial arts?
June 3, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is the ancient art of striking with focus, with purpose, and with strength, not wildly at your opponents, but through all obstacles, with victory as your target.
June 3, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the sound heard in a vomitorium.
June 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, are you feeling well?
I mean, normally you're up to at least posting the latest dispatch from HillaryIs44. Now it's just random, single-sentence static.
Hang in there! The alternate universe primaries aren't over until August.
June 3, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you're not doing well.
It's like you just can't come up with anything clever today. Is something eating you?
Today's just not your day.
June 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight's results are only icing on the cake.
IT'S OVER!!!
June 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think RaeKa & gotalife,
are having nervous breakdowns.
Isn't it wonderful?
June 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The usual 'don't feed the trolls' rule (which we've all broken) should be changed to 'turn and stare at the trolls, while beaming smiles of glory.'
June 3, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I imagine if they had a love child it would be Sean Hannity.
June 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's funny, right there. I don't care who you are!
June 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny thing is Gotalife blogged a few posts.
I never knew, I wonder why they never came up the rec list.
June 3, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even rantings have their standards. They don't qualify.
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're having a War Room Troll Conference right now, trying to determine the appropriate response to Obama's victory.
Their conclusion?
"Wonder if McCain's hiring."
June 3, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are hilarious!
Thanks for the laughs!
June 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it a great day?:)
June 3, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who says these trolls don't work for McCain already? I don't know if that's true, but I don't doubt that they're at the very least LGF trolls.
They definitely ain't Dems.
June 3, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope it's true. I hope enough superdelegates quickly declare for Obama to give him the magic number needed to become the nominee so that we can move on and start the process of bringing the Democrats back together. I also hope the rumored "bombshell" coming out tomorrow about Michelle is just a hoax.
June 3, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is. There's a video of her talking about Bush saying "Why'd he do this, why'd he do that?" (to paraphrase) and the GOP and NoQuarters are trying to convince people she was saying "Whitey do this, whitey do that?"
Because you know, an ivy league educated adult woman speaks in Ebonics just because she's black.
June 3, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's fucking laughable.
The GOP is going to go straight racist against Obama, huh? O this is going to be fun.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously? That's the shocking video? Wasn't that already debunked last week?
And Michelle Obama's BLACK? Are you kidding me?
Wait until the rest of the country finds this out....
June 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's already been discredited as a fake Otto, kind of like you.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good for you, Otto. Class act.
June 3, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So this video is the GOP version of The War Room's Indiana slur? It won't get 1/5th the airplay that that garbage got.
June 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even by Obama's count 31.5 to go she is mathematically eliminated.
He will undoubtedly split SD/MT today at worst and gain 15 minimum pledged delegates.
When those 31 delegates are off the board, Clinton's magic number will be ~181. Remaining delegates ~180.
Even with no more Superdelegate announcements she is eliminated mathematically at 10:00 P.M. eastern tonight.
June 3, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is true. I will be celebrating.
June 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
538 is predicting that Obama will get 9 delegates from MT and 7 from SD.
Add in the 5 supers from MT that will go to the winner of that state and there's 21 more.
June 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
turnip at 2:21 PM, love yer math!
we kept looking at what Barack needed and forgot that Hillary needed so many, many more that the supply was going to run out before she got even close to what she needed.
IOW, Hillary now needs 120% of the available superdelegates! urk
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
did you forget the (12) edwards delegates?
they will probably go to obama, but they don't have to. obama has it locked, but the direct evidence isn't there yet.
June 3, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, that's how I accounted for her being eliminated before he crossed 2118. I agree it is not final, but it is certain enough that there is no doubt whatsoever, that he will clinch tonight.
Even as we are typing this he is getting closer.
His site now has him at 30.5 and Jimmy Carter just went public with an endorsement. A couple others have been reported by Politico that aren't yet on Obama's site.
He will be well past 2118 by 10 P.M. at this rate.
June 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
There, turned the pundits off and felt much, much better. Then read KaneBlues post and allowed myself those good tears that come when the cup is not only half full, but spilling over. Thank you, KaneBlues. Champagne on ice. Now, anticipating, rather than just waiting for Godot.
June 3, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
What in the world are the people at AP thinking? Their big story is that Obama will clinch tonight? DUUUUHHHH!!! Are they that desperate for a scoop? This is a non-story.
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
yay
sorry, I took the wrong half hour to go to lunch.
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not so fast, gang.
Howard Wolfson has announced this morning his campaign's new position on the required number of delegates to achieve the Democratic Nomination.
"We strenuously object to the short-sighted finish line 2118," fumed Wolfson. "We contend that, in the interest of fair reflection relative to gender congruity and intergriy, 2118 is the required goal for male delegates only, and an additional 2118 must be comprised of female delegates. Hence, 4236.
"We categorically and unequivocably reject this mix-and-match approach with regard to gender, in an attempt to fabricate an artifical victory."
Wolfson went on to say, between hits off his crack pipe, that neither candidate will have a sufficient amount of delegates to secure the nomination. "In which case, the nominee is chosen by using the popular vote in Puerto Rico and Guam. This assures that there is no impartiality."
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whitey won't allow the black racists to clinch the nomination!
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
TAKE.
YOUR.
MEDS.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
When this is all over, I just hope you stay classy!!!
June 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
hee hee.
June 3, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWSFLASH*****
Barack Obama is half Caucasian, half African-American.
NEWSFLASH 2****
Barack Obama has already WON the Democratic Nomination
NEWSFLASH 3****
I understand you're disappointed. Now go please find a nice cliff and Fuck Off.
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jaysin - Sorry to steal your words.
RaeK - Fuck off.
June 3, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rae, I've waited several months to say this to you -
SHUT THE FUCK UP!!
Ah, that felt good!!! ;)
June 3, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's very significant, AFAIC, that this has been just straight up announced, finally.
That's it, folks. That's why I love this even though it isn't "official" - it drives the narrative toward making it official.
June 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Also It gives Hillary a few hours more to do the right thing.
June 3, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
No disagreement there. It definitely drives the narrative forward.
June 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's no different than calling a race with 0% of the vote counted. We're past the tipping point. The supers have weighed in, and the numbers are confirmed.
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton still controls the narrative.
June 3, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does narrative get to reside in the White House and get the keys to Air Force One?
I'm just sayin'
This video really captures the day for me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjPEBunlstQ
Today is a dream come true.
Can't we get along?
June 3, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Press Secretary Baghdad Bob then read a prepared statement:
June 3, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
another bit of reckless reporting from the AP. by putting this out now, they are raising the specter of the nomination being "stolen" and given to Obama by the SDs. we all know that's BS, but it's just another wedge between Obama and the Clintonuts. this could make talking them down from their ledges that much more difficult.
But I'll go ahead and congratulate Mr. Obama just the same!
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I know you're trying your best to promote that wedge, but I think you're full of shit.
I think Clinton's supporters are, in the main, grown ups who will get over their disappointment and do the right thing.
June 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good day.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very.
June 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's at home. No doubt charming all my neighbors. I'll bring him back in a few days. This is my Unity Zebra. After celebrations today and tomorrow, Stash will be back.
June 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm...shall we call him, "Stripes?"
June 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Picking up party insiders and losing elections....Not. Good.
June 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh... you so scary, Johnny2Bad!
June 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your Magic 8-Ball seems to be defective (probably cheap import, right?)
Mine says:
1) Identify that this is a Change election. Check.
2) Read the Rules of the election. Check.
3) Organize a 50 State program. Check.
4) Run a professional well-oiled campaign. Check.
5) Collect most popular votes (you know, without asterisks). Check.
6) Collect most delegates. Check.
7) Collect most Super-Delegates. Check.
Win the Democratic nomination. Check.
8) Rinse and repeat steps 1,2,3,4,5,6
9) Win the Presidential Election.
June 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I wish the media would hold off on premature declarations such as these. They only serve to rally Hillary's supporters more and encourage the narrative that Hillary has been singled out by the press. There's been no good polling of either Montana and South Dakota, so that new ARG poll showing Clinton up in both states has got me a bit nervous. It could very well be an outlier, but still...
June 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
is TPM having trouble. This the third time it kicked me off. Never done that before.....
June 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
EC has a well known bias against zebras.
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
SC Rep and SuperDel John Spratt endorsing Obama - he's down to needing 30.5.
June 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And just seconds later, they confirm Deb Kozikowsi from MA.
June 3, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I nominate CarolBG for official superdelegate herder-outer!
Can I get a second?
June 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Workin' it! It's kinda like counting down on New Year's Eve. Let's pop out the bubbly!
June 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Spratt was a particular SD that Hillary and Obama zeroed in on after North Carolina/Indiana. She was trying to extract an endorsement from him, and he respectfully declined. He indicated that he was leaning toward Obama.
I'm not sure what his duties entail (pardon my lack of political sophistication), but he's a big deal. I wish he had come aboard sooner.
June 3, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's his statement:
June 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is his name really Jack Spratt? Love it.
June 3, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I want to know is why did my browser suddenly go down and some damn Windows XP message come up that I was infected with viruses?
I'm not running Windows anything - I"m on a fucking .mac running Safari -
that was weird.
June 3, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
ditto.
June 3, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Happened to me, too, and then I got bumped off TPM.
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Obama Video! It's a virus! ;-)
June 3, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did that to me too. On my uber-firewalled work computer. Weird. Looked like spyware, but i'd think that impossible at my work.
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm on Firefox, Mac. About an hour ago something weird happened, and a little pop up window popped (I got pop ups blocked, but it sometimes lets some get through). Didn't see what was in it.
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank heavens I'm not alone in experiencing that little weirdness - I was questioning my own mental health for a second.
LOL
June 3, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oooohhh, that sucks. Don't click on the troll links.
June 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think I did, Carol, cause I almost never do.
That's what was so weird.
June 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing to worry about, folks. Just a little glitch in the NSA system as they reroute all TPM traffic through a different server for closer analysis.
Just a paranoid thought, but also additional motivation to elect a president who believes in the rule of law.
Yes, we can!
June 3, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Onward!
June 3, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
WE'LL DO IT LIVE!
June 3, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit!
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
*UCKING THING SUCKS!!!
June 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFLMAO. Thanks for that.
June 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars thru the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?
June 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's Obama's delegate countdown counter.
Nice!
June 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Demconwatch has 30.5
June 3, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
(follow me here)
FIRED!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
UP!
June 3, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND
June 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
READY
June 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
TO
June 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOBAMA!
June 3, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like this!
June 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
to kick some neocon butt? :)
June 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
READY, WILLING AND JUST DYING TO!!!!
June 3, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
READY
June 3, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
READY
June 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's like band camp...only more pathetic.
June 3, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pop! Fizz-fizz-fizz. Glug glug glug. Burp.
June 3, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmm...pass it on, please. Bubblies all around!
June 3, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, we can.
June 3, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Message to Hillbots: It's not over! (clap, clap, point, point)
June 3, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can what?
June 3, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Win the Democratic party nomination.
Win the Presidential Election.
Restore America's image abroad.
Restore America's greatest at home.
Any other questions?
June 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the RNC battle-cry in '00.
And its likely to be just as successful.
Pity.
June 3, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
defeat our lady of inevitibility, then mcThuseleh.
June 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bust a cap in your ignorant ass.
June 3, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
From MSNBC:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/03/1101430.aspx
June 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we there yet?
June 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC offical count at 28.5. Another super just announced. We are almost officially there.
June 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just about 10 more.
June 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
I can't stand it! LOL!
June 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
(I wanted to do it, too!)
June 3, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's really the perfect onomatopoeia. It’s pretty much the only sound I made during Game 7 of the 2004 ALDS (Red Sox fan here).
June 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hyper, we are soul mates - Red Sox fan here too!!!! Game 7 was un-fuckin-believable, wasn't it???? ;)
June 3, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew I liked you for a reason...
The only thing that will probably ever rival the feeling after that game will be tonight.
June 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally think you're right, but I bet Obama winning the election in November will beat even this, don't you think?? ;)
June 3, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, definitely.
Although I will say that I think the Dem nominating process will have had more drama and be a closer contest than the general.
June 3, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we avoid any potentially divisive Red Sox references?
(Big Yankee fan, having trouble with your 2004 analogy)
June 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just for you: http://mlb.imageg.net/graphics/product_images/pMLB2-2782389dt.jpg
June 3, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. I feel a little better.
Let's just agree to never bring this up again.
June 3, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We Yankees fans can relax, secure in the certainty that as night turns to day, it'll come around again.
June 3, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, I did think better of posting my original comment that made an unflattering comparison between Joba and Hillary.
June 3, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Yankee World Series Championship, much like Hillary Clinton, is history.
June 3, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha, awkward....
June 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew I disliked you both for a reason. Red Sucks fans Bleeeeeeeeeech :)
June 3, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that would fit - you a Yankees fan.
Having a fun summer?
June 3, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a nice breakdown on what to watch for as things unfold tonight.
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/
Excerpted from the article.(Use the link to read in it's entirety. It is also a site worth bookmarking)
Polls close at 8 p.m. Mountain Time (10 p.m. ET). Obama is set to win the state and, with it, 9 pledged delegates. Add those five and that’s… 14.
With the countdown to the “Obamagic number” now at 39, you can thus safely bank on Montana bringing that number down to 25.
There’s not much delegate math mystery to South Dakota’s primary today either. No matter which candidate wins, the split will be 8 pledged delegates for the winner and 7 for the other. All four of us that have the track record this season for predicting primaries and caucuses - Elliot at Election Inspection, PsiFighter37, and Poblano - have predicted an Obama win. But even if you choose to believe the World’s Worst Pollster (ARG), which puts Clinton ahead there, Obama would still get 7 delegates. The Field thinks he’ll get 8, but let’s just play along with the Chicken Littles for a moment: Those seven delegates bring the number Obama still has to get down from 25 to 18.
That means that if 18 superdelegates come out and endorse Obama before he takes the stage in St. Paul Minnesota tonight, Montana and South Dakota voters will have put him over the top, now with more than fifty percent of all Democratic National Convention delegates and a lock on the nomination.
June 3, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dont' you just love Al, Liam? He's been spot-on all primary season and he's been the prime source for my calm attitude that Obama was going to do it and that Hillary will concede by Friday at the latest. He's fabulous!!
June 3, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet!!!
Yes we can!!! and we will be on to November and McBush will wonder what has hit em when we launch into full GE mode...everyone..work hard and take nothing for granted...
June 3, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here comes the sun,
Do do do do.
Here comes the sun
And I say, it's alright.
Little darling,
It's been a long cold lonely winter,
It feels like it's been years since it's been here.
Here comes the sun,
Do do do do
Here comes the sun,
And I say, it's alright.
...
If not today... tomorrow.
June 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well crap.
Now I have to add another celebration song to have in the stereo tonite as I watch WALL-TO-WALL ELECTION COVERAGE AND NOMINATION CELEBRATION with my boys Chris n' Keith.
Here comes the Sun
What about Tomorrow
Celebration (Cool and the Gang)
What's everyone else gonna be listening to?
June 3, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Working myself up from what we have now to what we can hope to have.
Muddy Waters: Watergate Blues
Lou Reed: America
Mojo Nixon: Star Spangled Mojo
Somos Americanos: Nuestro Himno
Phil Ochs: Power & The Glory
June 3, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aubie --
Has Tubberville endorsed yet?
June 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear he could be in St. Paul tonight to personally put him over the top.
Then we get commitments from 14 five-star wide receivers.
The stars are aligned!
;)
June 3, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he can pull that off, we'll give you a couple from last year's haul. But not Julio.
June 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll celebrate when it's official, but for the moment, the smile feels really nice...
:o)
June 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto. =)
June 3, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
As per MSNBC, Jimmy Carter is officially endorsing Barack Obama.
June 3, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fantastic!
It really is over!
June 3, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's almost as good as the New Black Panthers endorsement.
When Carter endorses, say goodbye to the Jewish vote.
June 3, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the monolitihic "Jewish Vote".
Sheesh, you really are a troll if you think all Jews vote in lockstep, and ALWAYS against that evil jihad-lovin' Jimmy Carter.
June 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has this "jewish vote" locked up. And my dad's too.
June 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe that someone as intelligent as you is reducing himself to a snarking troll. I'm truly disappointed.
June 3, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
No matter what Hillary intends, the ship is leaving the pier.
Obama has 27.5 According to MSNBC.
June 3, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad this is going to be wrapped up today because otherwise i would probably be looking for a new job pretty soon!
June 3, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congratulations to Barack Obama. He threaded the needle.
This will not change my hope that Clinton supporters and centrist Democrats in general decide to sit out the election.
McCain is no saint.
Obama is no leader.
Democratic Conscientious Objectors unite.
June 3, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go ahead and sit it out, Fogu2 - we'll pick up the slack with all those new people that Obama has brought into the party. If you want to cut off your nose to spite your face, so be it. I feel sorry for you but it's a free country so go for it.
June 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go fuck yourself.
June 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
How Lieberman-esque of you.
Closet neocon, whether you are aware of it or not.
June 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fogu, that's a good attempt to sound like you're not moping, while actually moping.
June 3, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the immortal words of Rush.
"If you choose no to decide, you still have made a choice...."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpCASVFyQoE
Choosing not to vote does nothing to wash the blood of the Iraq War of of your hands for every single fucking day it lasts longer than absolutely necessary to bring our troops home safely. Sleep well.
June 3, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this shit for real? I have been in limbo so long, I have no clue what the Promised Land looks like anymore.