Another Poll Finds Obama Leading In Historically-Red Virginia
Another poll is showing that Barack Obama could potentially win Virginia, a historically red state that has been trending Democratic and would represent a major breakthrough if the Dems could pick it up.
The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±3.3% margin of error. This is on top of a Rasmussen poll from two days ago, which gave Obama a one-point lead.
Although this state hasn't voted Dem since 1964, the Obama campaign is aggressively targeting it thanks to the Democratic growth in northern Virginia. Local geographic shifts like this -- combined with the Obama campaign's big treasury, which allows Obama to compete aggressively in more states than past Dems have -- suggest that the map of competitive states really may be much broader than usual this year.

McCain is toast. I mean really, why is anyone even pretending this race is going to be competitive.
June 18, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because overconfidence loses elections. I am cautiously optomistic. I think Obama will win in a walk but I have thought that before and lost. This time I am doing voter registration and phonebanking.
June 18, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suddenly basin VP picks on swing states is making less sense. These polls are changing for the better more and more everyday. Looking good!!
Of course it's still a long ways until November and January 2010, for that matter.
June 18, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
basin = basing. yep.
June 18, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
2009? yep.
June 18, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
bzzzzzzzzzt!
June 18, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
not at all. for me the VP pick for obama has been and remains about bagging VA and sewing up ohio and pennsylvania. the top of the ticket puts the swing states in play. the VP helps bring 'em home. it's the diff between being competitive and actually winning.
June 18, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
June 18, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fantastic! Keep the hits coming Obama's way, Eric!
June 18, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's a poll post, so it has to be Eric and by golly it is.
LOL!
I don't care- Obama's gonna win. :)
I do love it very much that the south, which is so vilified by the rest of the country, may end winning this for Obama. That makes me very happy indeed.
June 18, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know what the comparable poll numbers were in 2004 between Bush and Kerry?
Or 2000, and between Bush and Gore? Or where you could find that info?
June 18, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a good article on the whole 2004 campaign and polls, state by state....
http://politicsandgovernance.org/reports/2004/Regional_Poll_Roundup_10_07_04.pdf
From a quick Google it looks as though Bush and Kerry were pretty much in a dead heat nationally. I also saw an AP poll for Ohio were Kerry was up by 6 points... So I think it's safe to say we shouldn't be too overconfident this far out.
Though it seems Obama is definitely off to a better start than Kerry ever was.
June 18, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Real Clear Politics has polling averages from 2004: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
The overwhelming majority of polls taken during this time in 2004, show Bush with a roughly 4 point lead on Kerry.
Projecting 2004 onto 2008 is dangerous, but these numbers seem to indicate that Obama is in very good shape.
June 18, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
was just gonna post that.... good work! virginia seems to have been solid bush country in 2004. my how things change!
June 18, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Projecting 2004 onto 2008 is dangerous" - agreed.
However, 2004 was a very different climate from what we have in 2008.
- Incumbent party approval rating - in toilet
- Inability to distinguish McNew from McOld
- Caliber of the candidates *
- And on and on
* Which reminds me, memba’ this great line from the West Wing? “. . . I think we might be talking about a .22 caliber mind in a .357 magnum world. . . .
June 18, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I too believe Obama is in a GREAT position, however, it is very early. And according to this statistician's Election Projection in 2004 Kerry was up in projected electoral votes 311 to 227 as late as Aug. 22, 2004.
This guy's track record is pretty unbelievable. He predicted the 2004 pres electoral vote just about dead on (he had Wisconsin and Iowa reversed, but predicted they would be within 1%). Check out his map here. He was also exactly right on the 2006 Senate races; 1 off for Govs that year; and only 6 off for the House.
Some good signs, however, is that the polls leading into the 2004 race appeared much more back and forth. For example, on June 12, 2004 Kerry was up 316 to 222, then the following week Bush was projected to win Florida and Ohio making it a 269-269 tie.
June 18, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's another factoid to mull over.
Election Projection said this on June 18, 2004:
EV's: Bush 269, Kerry 269
June 18, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suddenly basing VP picks on swing states is making less sense. These polls are changing for the better more and more everyday. Looking good!!
Of course it's still a long ways until November and January 2009, for that matter.
Second time is the charm. Wish the inter-tubes had a way to review what you were posting before you did so.... can't believe that hasn't been thought of..... hmmmmmm. I could make millions!
Snark.
June 18, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate it when Obama's ahead by two, but they say it is a tie. Two is better than really tied. It is amazing that any democrat is ahead in Virginia!
June 18, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be fair, it is within the margin of error. Still it always surprises me how the exact same poll result can be reported in completely different ways - "Obama tied" "Obama ahead" or even "McCain closing in on Obama". Why not just headline it "Obama up by 2"? Or even: "Obama 47, McCain 45." Folks can count...
June 18, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gratifying, certainly, but not that amazing. Virginia was one of the last (maybe even the last) of the Southern states to have control of the legislature turn over to the GOP, and the most recent legislative election turned control of the state Senate back to the Democrats.
Virginia has elected Democrats to the governorship in the last two gubernatorial elections.
Virginia was the first state in the country to elect a black governor (a Democrat).
Since 1970 (the year Virginia elected its first Republican governor since Reconstruction), the Republicans have split the office evenly with the Democrats at 5 terms each.
Virginia had one Democratic US Senator (Chuck Robb) from 1989 until 2001, and the Republican who replaced him in 2001, George Allen, famously did not win re-election in 2006.
Yes, Virginia Democrats are mostly center-right, but they are still Democrats.
June 18, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
and he is up in Michigan:)
June 18, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear awesomeo and Josephcast:
THANKS FOR THOSE LINKS!
I deleted all my 2004 polling bookmarks awhile ago.
See? You should never throw anything away.
June 18, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're welcome. Good question. I've been looking over 2004 numbers myself lately, out of curiousity. I agree that comparing 2004 and 2008 can be dangerous, I mean just look at McCain's result for doing that.....
June 18, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
I like looking at 2004 and 2000 results for context. And a dose of reality, as well.
June 18, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric Kleefeld wrote:
"suggest that the map of competitive states really may be much broader than usual this year."
Ya think so, doctor?
Welcome to the world the rest of us have been inhabiting. Nice to have you here - finally.
June 18, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
(sorta) explains why he keeps calling michigan a must-win.
June 18, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama will get aggressive about Texas - and by that I mean he starts wooing our majority, which is Hispanic, really hard, sends Richardson there and spends some money in Texas, he could walk away with Texas.
He really could - the key in the rural areas is the Hispanic vote. Obama already has the cities and most of their surrounding counties. Where he lost to Clinton was in the Valley and Big Bend and El Paso - those are all areas heavily Hispanic majority and they vote Democratic. He just needs to campaign there and I think he could do it - I don't care what the polls say. This state is a Hispanic majority state.
The only part of the state that I think is a lost cause is deep East Texas, but there is a large AA population there, and they could outvote the legendarily racist East Texas caucasians. And the panhandle is tricky - they aren't terribly tolerant up around Dumas and Claude and Amarillo. But one never knows, really. They are kind of ornery and independent up there, too.
I know the polls heavily favor McLame, but I think Obama could turn the state if he really tried.
June 18, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Texas is more useful as a distraction for McCain - say if Obama (with Barr's help) manages to poll strong, McCain would be forced to split off resources from other states to defend it.
June 18, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, that's an excellent point.
June 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you on texas. I think obama can flip it, especially with noriega running for the senate. A little investment and get out the hispanic vote and texas turns blue.
June 18, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear American Voters, reporters and political professionals,
Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics. The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees are as under:
1. Presidential "Temperament and Composer".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.
In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities.
Senator Obama and his administration along with congress will address all the critical current and future domestic and foreign issues, challenges, and opportunities in coming years.
Let us remember and recite following concepts:
" Family, Friends, Fellows, Faith, Funds, Foundation [s], Fun, with Freedom & Fairness and without Fear, Favor, & Failure" . It applies to every citizen of our Greatgrand Nation.
Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..
Yours truly,
COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas
PS: Please talk about the " Presidential Temperament And Caliber " of our presumptive presidential Nominees.
Thanks.
June 18, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not even that worried about Obama winning Texas....
I just want him to make it competetive so McCain has to spend money defending Texas. When a republican has to pour resurces in Texas... then you KNOW they're in trouble.
I am cautiously optimistic.
June 18, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree -
That's an excellent point that has been made a couple of times now.
I would just love to clean house in Texas, finally. The demographics have changed radically over my lifetime - we should be a Democratic state because we have an Hispanic majority. What happened though was the Repugs gerrymandered the fuck out of Texas and got away with it.
God I hate Republicans. I really do - I hate them. I have a fucking federal concentration camp in the middle of my state. I hate Republicans.
June 18, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today's charts at:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
... are a sight to behold. Mos' definitely GREAT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!
Seriously though, I'm starting to worry that McCain will drop out before the convention. He's imploding and that "trollop" video is going more viral than anything since the Macaca video.
We may have to put the old boy on life support for a couple months to make sure he's still around for the knockout punch in November.
June 18, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that link - I just bookmarked it.
June 18, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a video of this or just the account in a book or two? If there is a video, it could be all over; but I hadn't heard about a video yet.
June 18, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The video is not of him actually saying it, merely of people discussing him saying it. It's quite funny, hence the reason it's gone viral.
June 18, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I think the trollup video is truly hilarious, but I don't think it's going to hurt McCain much. There's no video of him saying it, so it's easily denied. Just me two cents on that.
June 18, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
My Virginia is going to go Blue this year!!! I've lived in two different areas of Virginia my entire life, first in military rich Hampton Roads (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, ect.) and now in northern Virginia near DC and I can say that Virginia has been pulling toward blue for a while now thanks to terrible republican leadership in the 90's and then an amazing term from Mark Warner in Richmond. Not to mention all of the help that our beloved White House idiot has provided in turning people off of the Repubs.
It wasn't long ago that Virginia Dems had to go to other states to work on Get Out the Vote drives; but this year we can stay in town and work hard to turn the scales toward Obama!!!!
June 18, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lets make sure that asshat Jim Gilmore (R-Stupid Car Tax)does not get into the Senate.
This news makes me very happy.
June 18, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't worry about that, Mark Warner is up by something like 50 to 32 percent over Gilmore.
June 18, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, 59% to 28%....LOLZ
June 18, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lets hold our horses- Polls in June meaning almost nothing, nothing.
June 18, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you're referring to the presidential polls, then I agree with you 100%. However, if you're referring to the VA Senate polls (and you very well may not have) then I'd say that Warner's election to Senate is so much of a sure thing; I'd bet my 401k on it.
June 18, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's an interesting poll that considers the public's ignorance about McCain's position on abortion:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_gqr_battleground_states.php
June 18, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh oh, maybe arizona is in the mix as well. I can't keep track of all these battleground states. Luckily obama has the organization and cash to keep track and compete. This is looking too good to be true. Landslide a coming.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20080618/ts_csm/aarizona
June 18, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's over.
Anybody know how to get in touch with the Lasik girl?
June 18, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is the headline "Obama Tied in Virginia"?
June 18, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The recent spate of state polling is most def good news...something's happenin out there now that we're rid of the Clintons
June 18, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
sure obama can win states full of blacks and eggheads. but no democrat has ever won the whitehouse without winning the working, hard working, whites of WEST virginia.
June 18, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is off-topic, but I wanted to comment on the poll that puts Elizabeth Dole 10 points ahead in the NC-Sen race (see poll tracker above).
That poll was apparently commissioned by the Civitas Institute, one of the several right-wing think tanks we have to deal with on a state level in NC. Don't put too much stock in it.
June 18, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a comment that should be a post of its own.
June 18, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just laughing at all these folks who talk of an Obama landslide. First of all, this isn't a 'lead' - this is a statistical tie and that's not really a surprise coming out of Virginia. Secondly, we had a Rasmussen poll out of Ohio just now that showed McCain 'leading' 44%-43%. Sure, he was trailing by a few in Quinn. but it's clearly going to be a close contest. Obama is getting a bit of a breather right now with all his favorable press but the internals don't look that good for Obama in many of these states. McCain has better favorables generally, etc. Also are any of you thinking about the Bradley Effect? Of course not. You guys have been prophesying landslides for years.
June 18, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
steve in sc you are so right. there just aren't enough eggheads and blacks to put him over the top. mccain has the momentum with working, hard working, whites.
June 18, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
i'm amused by how this sounds as if the thought is only just now occurring to you.
June 18, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Slb;
The state legislatures of Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and Arkansas are stilled controlled by Democrats. Although, in Mississippi the balance of power shifted towards the Republicans after some party switching, but the Democrats regained control in the Senate after Mississippi's last election. The Dems lost control of North Carolina in the 1990's, but have since regained control of both the house and the senate.
Virginia is the first state in the entire nation, not just the south, to elect a black man as Governor. Wilder was up by a good 10 pts a few days before the election and barely eked out a 1 pt victory. I think Obama can do it, but the cynic in me remains skeptical.
June 19, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink