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After Tuesday's Voting, Obama May Be Only 20 Delegates From Clinching Nomination
Here's a useful crunching of the numerical results of yesterday's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting.
Yesterday, Hillary got 87 pledged dels out of the Florida and Michigan solutions, while Obama got 63, netting 24 for her.
The new magic number is 2,118.
If you factor in the Edwards delegates who have pledged to vote for Obama, the Illinois Senator has a total of 2,055.5 -- putting him 62.5 delegates away from that magic number.
Assuming Clinton and Obama split the remaining 86 delegates at stakes in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana evenly (43 apiece), that would put Sen. Obama 19.5 away from clinching the nomination. (So, for all practical purposes, he would need about 20 super-delegates to hit the magic number.) Clinton would need 195.
Bottom line: After Tuesday, Obama may need less than two-dozen super-dels to clinch the nomination. Hillary would need more than 16 dozen of them.
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THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!
FOR....
~
June 1, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kim Jong-il
June 1, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
USA!!!
June 1, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ superdelegates come out for Obama on Monday so he can be put over the top by the voters instead of the superdelegates.
It makes for a better story and it would allow him to declare victory in Minneapolis on Tuesday evening.
June 1, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom line: After Tuesday, Obama may need less than two-dozen super-dels to clinch the nomination. Hillary would need in the neighborhood of 15 dozen
Hillary folks:
A small speck you see in the distance swirling ever so slightly? That's the starting line for the nomination race.
When you get their you'll see another speck in the distance swirling ever so sligtly that's the finish line to the nomination race.
Now Run.
June 1, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
4 years of McCain.
Do you think Edwards will run again in '12?
June 1, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure McCain is resigning from the Senate after he loses the GE.
June 1, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is more about timing and less about the delegate math right now. Obama is at 2071 (46 short), conceivably he will gain 19 delegates in Tuesday's primaries, leaving him 27 short. The Add-On superdelegates which are 35 remaining appear to conservatively fall 20-15 Obama's way (but that might mean waiting all the way to June 21st.
I say tomorrow 30 superdelegates line up, (6 from the Pelosi Club) and the 24 coming from the remaining 15.5 Senators and 49.5 Congressional delegates making MT and SD the crowning ending to the contest.
Furthermore the remaining 97 DNC and DPL's (and 6 Governors) will fold in with almost lock step between now and June 21st giving Obama an insurmountable majority at the Convention leaving Clinton nothing but a microphone.
June 1, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully he gets those 20 SDs before the polls close Tuesday.
June 1, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! I just wrote that earlier. They have no reason not to endorse now, or Tuesday, if preferred, and I hope they will do so to make Tuesday night extraordinary.
June 1, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
20's about right
Donna Brazile just declared that she'd be declaring because we know who the victor is
June 1, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
w00t! w00t!
I know we're not supposed to celebrate because theoretically "the margin is narrow and we must not be bad winners..." but
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! finally!!!!!!!!!!
June 1, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I intend to be the baddest winner the HillBillies around here have ever seen
PAYBACK time...Take em all out
June 1, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to see Obama take at least half of the remaining SuperDels, just to discourage Hillary from entertaining any notion of a fight at the Convention.
June 1, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
AMEN TO THAT!!! I hope he takes all the remaining Spers and puts the IRON ***** out of her Misery!!!!
June 2, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the super delegates should wait atleast 2 weeks to think about who is the better canadiate, whether that be Obama or Clinton.... I don't think they should hurry so quickly.....
June 1, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even Hillary said around June 3rd is the right time for Supers to declare their preference. Not that I care what Hillary thinks but I know you do.
June 1, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right, is that because *anything* could happen in those two weeks and Hillary might be the only one standing...?
The Supers won't be asking you what calendar to follow, though.
June 1, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
HAHA! They've had 6 months to decide that. It's over.
June 1, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. These five months haven't been enough. It's conceivable that, at the last minute, Hillary might reveal some actual character, some long-dormant integrity and decency that just hasn't made it to the surface yet.
June 1, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny.
June 1, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
No more waiting.
It's over. We know who the nominee is.
June 1, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
AYE!!!That we DO OBAMA all the way to the White House!!!
June 2, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Something that you will not see posted by Hillary's Sargent At Arms, since he spent a lot of time,posting on TPMhorse's Mouth, that the media favored Obama.
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/325339/media_doesn_t_love_obama_after_all
Excerpted from the full report.
Barack Obama has not received better media coverage than Hillary Clinton, according to a new study by the research team at Pew/Harvard, the gold standard in nonpartisan media analysis.
After reviewing coverage from January to March, when the majority of states voted, researchers determined that Obama simply did not fare better than Clinton. In fact, reporters "began to turn against Obama [even] before questions surfaced about his pastor Jeremiah Wright," the study found. And Clinton's "Saturday Night Live" gambit – when she chided the moderators of a February debate, "maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow" – apparently worked:
Shortly after Clinton criticized the media for being soft on Obama during a debate, the narrative about him began to turn more skeptical--and indeed became more negative than the coverage of Clinton herself.
June 1, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Liam, I thought so too. The media beat him up terribly over Wright. I watched him last night, though it killed me to do so, on a channel I NEVER watch, Fox, as he gave his interview about his church. You could tell he was hurt that he had to make this decision, and on the other hand, he handled the questions from the reporters with amazing candor and control.
June 1, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
It has been a shameful thing to watch and I blame everyone who posted and/or published anything about Rev Wright right from the start.
Man, Hillary sure has played allll the media like a violin, I must say. From Rev Wright to Popular Vote, it's been quite the ride.
June 1, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's played them, alright, but somehow the hamfisted bludgeoning they've been doing since last summer doesn't put me in mind of a violinist. More like a pile driver.
June 1, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point very well taken.
And thanks for posting it. :)
June 1, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course not. The Clintons have always been darlings of the media. I will be very interested to see, however, how they cover Obama and McCain in the General. There are vested interests that are real worried about the implications of an Obama Presidency and they will be pulling strings as the rest of this campaign plays out. Obama still very much has his work cut out for him.
June 1, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
why do we need to hurry this up..... i say take it to the convention and vote..... that is why they have a convention..... let the super delegates sleep on it for a while.
June 1, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are being humorous, right?
June 1, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hurry? I think we've been very patient with Clinton. However, our patience is wearing very thin after the tantrums we're seeing from the Clinton camp and her supporters. Time to put this monstrosity down.
June 1, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because the Democrats want to WIN IN NOV. We cannot give McSame 3 more months to make his pitch unopposed whle America watches Democrats dither away. Remember it is not just democrats we need to convince in Nov, but also disaffected republicans. They are not looking very favorably at this dramatic nomination process we have going on. The sooner it ends, the better off we will be.
June 1, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll tell you why. So that obnoxious remarks by McCain's campaing (e.g., calling it nitpicking when someone points out that factually incorrect statement McCain made about troop numbers) gets the damn media coverage it deserves.
Instead, we're still talking about the drama that is the Clinton campaign.
June 1, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just remember... you said the white house was not meant for a President who would put black people first. Whatever else you may say carries no value. Your thinking is so clouded by kneejerk prejudice that your moral center is defunct.
June 1, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the polls actually saying about the remaining three Primaries?
Is it possible that he would end up needing less than 20 Supers?
June 1, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
All of them from Florida and Michigan should go to Clinton since Obama stole 59 delegates then threw his radicals under the bus.
June 1, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are mentally ill.
June 1, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you might want to go hide for a bit. I just called the police and reported a 5150 at your address.
June 1, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!
June 1, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
We'll get right to work on that...along with the moon laser battery that Clinton will need to "secure the nomination." [insert diabolical laughter here]
June 1, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
well, my parents voted in puerto rico (two votes for obama). word is that the primary down there is being seen as a political party fight, those who are pro statehood have gone towards hillary, and those who are pro commonwealth have gone towards obama. Which means that it would, in theory, be a 50/50 split, but the governor, who is pro-commonwealth, is so unpopular that that might help hillary votes.
Turnout was high where my parents live, but according to them, turnout is lower around the island and they expect bad weather pretty soon, which, for those who have gone to puerto rico understand what an agaucero is...
June 1, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most popular ever.
"Clinton is the top vote-getter after Michigan and Florida recognition:
Hillary Clinton has gotten 17,652,848 votes, compared to Barack Obama's 17,600,517. Which means she has become the most popular vote-getter ever in the Democratic Party process. Today's win in Puerto Rico is expected to add at least 100,000 more votes to the total."
Add 300,000 today and you have your nominee in a real democracy.
Hillary Clinton.
June 1, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Therw's something seriously wrong with you.
June 1, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep banging that drum.
June 1, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
First of all Michigan was NOT recognized. It was clearly said it was an illegitimate primary whose results were not used to determine the delegate allocation per se. Second of all you are counting - not only zero uncommitted for Obama which is a crock but you are also not counting his write-in votes.
June 1, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't it turrible? Life is so unfair.
LOL!
June 1, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cry us a river
June 1, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife i totally agree with what you have said.... i am glad to see that there are a few more clinton supporters on here..... i am glad that i'm not the only clinton supporter.
How big of a win do you think she will get in puerto rico and do you think she can win montana, & south dakota....????
Also, do you think Clinton should take it to the convention, if that is what it takes to have delegates seated correctly in michigan???
June 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know we all just kind of grin at these posts. Today it is like the Sunday paper comics.
June 1, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huge win in PR, close win in SD and lose in Montana.
Yes, to the convention because they gave Obama 59 delegates he did not earn.
Total bs.
June 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
They gave Clinton 69 delegates she didn't earn.
June 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just like in a real democracy Al Gore would have won. Or when Harold Ickes said in Dec. that it was all about Superdelegates, NOT popular vote. Or when Clinton said in Jan that MI would count for nothing. Now she counts those "popular" votes too? This is so sad it's pathetic. I don't want any part of a party with Hillary, Geraldine Ferraro or Ickes in it.
June 1, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're more than welcome to stay in PR, for real democracy. No offense PR, you can lock this guy up if you want to.
June 1, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you smell that?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPXVGQnJm0w
June 1, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Makes a nice consolation prize, doesn't it?
June 1, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom line: Obama needs one score while Hillary needs nine score and fifteen!
Or in other words, if Hillary and Barack were in a race, and he were one chain from the finish, then she would be nearly a furlong from the tape!
...
;-)
June 1, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
what a gorgeous picture!
June 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Illecillewaet Glacier.
June 1, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
just a field goal
June 1, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
53% of voters have an unfavorable view of
Obama, while 45% like him.
D'oh!
June 1, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't poll your cats and report the results.
June 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's funny. Very funny.
June 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Umm... but he just did.
June 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I resent that remark!
June 1, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh oh. Gotta go!
June 1, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Californians demand a do-over
DENVER!
DENVER!
June 1, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dont have the link right now, but I think they polled her home state of NY and found similar results. I doubt she will even win her senate seat back.
June 1, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something like 52% of New York thinks she should drop out.
June 1, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope that the Puerto Rico vote does not get the Clintonistas to excited again. What is wrong with those people? In another life, could I have been like that? Frightening.
June 1, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, yeah! That's a frightening thought!
June 1, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
gotnolife, if I'm not mistaken, you said that you are a woman who supports Hillary.
At this juncture, that really makes me shake my head. I don't understand y'all at all.
You think she's some feminist heroine? Bullshit. She rode her scummy husband's coattails - kept him around for that reason when she knew what he was like - like no married man should be, and you know that too.
I let him and her get away with it in the 90s. I'm sick of the whole damn traveling orgy now, and I really have no respect at all for any woman who continues to support Hillary, who knows the lie she is living.
June 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are a disgrace to your gender.
June 1, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAHA!
June 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
But you are the one who is cross-dressing dear.
June 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton is the one who is a disgrace to the women of the world, and all humanity!
June 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I never have made a secret out of my intention to grow old disgracefully, but I know there are a million women out there who are far and away more admirable than Hillary Clinton. I can't muster up the slightest respect for a woman who stays married to a man who is running around with a group of international playboys. It's one thing to have an arrangement - that's between the couple. But they make it so very public and she can't even keep him that much in line?
Wow.
Growing old disgracefully is not something an ex-president really has any right to do. He's still a representative of this country.
June 1, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotnolife: Your are disgrace. Period.
June 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has bad news for clinton......:(:(:(:(
They just said 5 minutes ago that turn out in puerto rico so far is VERY LOW......:(:(:(
the polls close 3 hours, i sure hope that they go out in huge numbers before they close.......
GO HILLARY!!!!!!
June 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guess Ricky Martin wasn't a factor
Livin la vida loca!
June 1, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why vote for a corpse?
June 1, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
A corpse can't authorize the invasion of Iraq!!
June 1, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope she chooses to continue the long slow painfully public humiliation
June 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
"In many ways, Mr. Obama is wheezing across the finish line after making a strong start: He has won only 6 of the 13 Democratic contests held since March 4, drawing 6.1 million votes, compared with 6.6 million for Mrs. Clinton."
Better spew more kool aid.
June 1, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
One month ago I began a conversation with Gotalife
But we voted different!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h3G-lMZxjo
June 1, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The latest Field Poll shows that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - who lost the Feb. 5 California primary to Clinton by nine points - is now preferred as the party nominee by a landslide 51 to 38 percent among the state's Democrats, according to a poll of 914 likely party voters taken May 16-27.
Party's over.
Party's Barack's
June 1, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw shucks I love a good party.
June 1, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I plan to Party Hearty on Tueday night!
June 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
from the same article...Her associates said the most likely outcome was that she would end her bid with a speech, probably back home in New York, in which she would endorse Mr. Obama.
June 1, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's campaign is clearly signaling that if he is the nominee, he will move to have Florida and Michigan seated with 100% votes (probably at the convention). Smart move, which will further defuse what is already a fizzling movement to challenge the DNC Rules Committee compromise.
June 1, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently Daschle believes that Clinton and Obama will appear together in the next week.
June 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a little late for Senator Clinton supporters to be asking what is the rush to wrap it up, since their Candidate, Hillary Clinton, said last November that she planned on wrapping up the nomination on Super Tuesday, 2/5/08.
Since Hillary wanted to wrap it up four months ago, they have no argument against Senator Obama wrapping it up now, so they should all just STFU.
June 1, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read an article yesterday that said we will see a woman President, and the problem with this election was that Hillary was the wrong woman. I totally agree with that assessment. There are many fine women in government, but she proved herself to be the kind of woman we don't want leading our country. She lost herself in this campaign, and she lost respect. Now I understand even New Yorker's are very unhappy with her actions. She did this to herself, and it didn't have to be this way.
June 1, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely Pippi!
O hell, yeah - I knew that we were close to seeing a woman president when Nancy Pelosi became the first Woman Speaker of the House - that is a position of immense power.
And I couldn't agree more with you and the article that Hillary was and is the wrong woman.
The whole country is begging to get out of the Bush-Clinton Era, for the love of god.
June 1, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was it "Don't Vote Chromosomes"?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peggy-drexler/dont-vote-chromosomes-the_b_104484.html
June 1, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Campaigning for Puerto Rican votes in a Pantsuit, is like sunbathing in a Burqa.
June 1, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you had these thighs, you'd stay covered up too.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Democratic-Primaries-Catano2C-Puerto-Rico-Sen-Hillary-Rodham-Clinton/ss/events/pl/050608democraticprim/im:/080531/481/b5e8352e7c2a47acb3dacf7fdd2123f0/
June 1, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
puerto rico polls will be closing in about 2 1/2 hours..... CNN is the only one to have Exit polls from puerto rico, they will begin sharing some of those exit polls at 2:00pm edt.
CNN said that turn out might not be that good for hillary clinton..... LOW TURN OUT.......:(:(:(
June 1, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turn out has picked up substantially, it was the Sunday morning church attenders that kept the numbers low. You will be happy to know her favored districts have picked up quite a bit. You will be unhappy to know it makes no difference.
June 1, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can someone give HillaryClinton08 a hug?
June 1, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing's for sure: the political press will be sad to see her go.
They've had a real field day with this Bride of Clenis/Scary Vagina vs. Uppity Negro storyline over the past 5 months.
June 1, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, I have a question for you all. Will Hillary embrace Obama big time for the attention she craves, or will she be her usual self and Ms. Excuse, and not help much?
June 1, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she'll endorse Obama and campaign for him hard. Politically, she really has no other choice.
June 1, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Senator Clinton will campaign for him. If it was Bill Clinton in this position? No. I've thought for some time now that Senator Clinton was more of a realist than Bill Clinton.
I've respected their marriage, and I hated when the NY Times did that whole front page piece on their marriage--Because it's nobody's damn business what their marriage is like.
But I seriously believe she would have been better off had she divorced him. As it is, the thought of electing Clinton never appealed to me because we'd be sending Bill back to the White House.
And the media would never let her move on to governing.
June 1, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most popular ever.
"Hillary Clinton has gotten 17,652,848 votes, compared to Barack Obama's 17,600,517. Which means she has become the most popular vote-getter ever in the Democratic Party process. Today's win in Puerto Rico is expected to add at least 100,000 more votes to the total."
She wins in a real democracy.
"Obama's unfavorable rating at 53%:
53% of voters have an unfavorable view of
Obama, while 45% like him."
D'oh!
June 1, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a link to that fake poll, dipshit.
Hillary's the one with negatives over 50%. Last poll I saw (within the last week) had Obama's negatives in the low 40's.
Put up...or shut the fuck up.
June 1, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in the Pew poll, they didn't even poll Clinton's favorables/unfavorables. Pew knew who the nominee was going to be even before last night.
June 1, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most Unpopular First Lady in US History. Highest negative ratings of any former first lady, ever.
Popular vote means NOTHING. Ask Al Gore.
June 1, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently in gotalife's world, "real democracy" = counting zero votes for Obama in MI, yet including all of Clinton's votes despite exit polling that indicated some Clinton voters preferred Obama.
No Democrat who signed that pledge had any business being on that ballot. Thankfully this is beyond argument -- at least anywhere outside gotalife's alternate plane, the Clinton bunker, and H44 (where the hysterical fear that some of the FL/MI "popular vote" might be "given" to Obama by the RBC is the funniest slice of ignorance I've seen served there).
You sold anyone who was buying that bill of goods a month ago, and you've managed to lose a few of those in the interim.
June 1, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Enjoy the consolation prize - that's all you get to take home from this party.
June 1, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack and Michelle Obama in St. Paul, MN
June 1, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could be there. My old stomping ground. It is such a beautiful state, and even better on Tuesday.
June 1, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do not Step in the Goatshite Droppings. It just spreads the Stench.
June 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The democratic party weather report for next week.."It's gonna be raining superdelegates next for Obama ...expect a heavy downpour!"
Can't wait to hear Obama Tuesday night in MN. Brillant move to do that at the site of the GOP convention. Just fucking brillant!
June 1, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's time to give it up and not blame the media or sexism or the Michigan/Florida fiasco for Hillary's loss.
Reflect on it and realize she probably should have won, but didn't because: 1) Her campaign was flawed and didn't foresee the campaign going beyond Super Tuesday (she lost how many consecutive contests in states she wasn't organized until until Ohio and Texas?), and 2) Obama's message of change resonated in a large number of voters.
By the time her campaign regrouped and threw everything at Obama it could (personal attacks, lack of experience, elitism, any GE metric that could be skewed in her favor, etc.) to see what worked and what didn't, it could only manage an even split in the remaining states, and a modest gain in pledged delegates from the remaining states which was more than offset by a net loss in pledged delegates.
So blaming Obama for anything other than running a better and smarter campaign is just being in denial for blowing what should have been a sure cakewalk to the presidency.
And the mood that this country is in (Republicans can't even win special elections in very conservative districts), there's no reason why Obama shouldn't easily win the presidency, unless Hillary's supporters take out their frustration on her flawed campaign on Obama.
June 1, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the first real strategic problem for her campaign was her vote authorizing Bush to use force in Iraq. It was the only real chink in her armor. And Edwards and Biden and eventually Obama went after her on this one. Hell, I remember a debate in Nov/Dec where Edwards pulled Obama aside at one of the breaks and chided him for not going after Hillary more directly on Iraq.
Her vote in 2002 to authorize force in Iraq was probably politically motivated. She had her eyes on the Presidency from 1999, when she sucked so many WH resources into her NY Senate campaign that she can be partly blamed for Gore's "loss."
From there, what you said about bad campaign advisers, poor post 2/5 planning, and neglect of caucus states cost her dearly
June 1, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why not elect Hillary where she is the most popular?
Hillary Clinton for Governor of Puerto Rico.
It would solve all our problems, and get her far away from all those nasty Bosnian Snipers.
June 1, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liam, she would have to buy a whole new wardrobe :)
June 1, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Linen pant suits. Good luck with the wrinkles.
June 1, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Be interesting to compare next Sunday's Gallup track
June 1, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
SCREW OBAMA!!
We will not vote for him .
If Hillary doesn't get the nom.... and it looks pretty dim now,
we
will
vote
McCain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 08
yeahaaahiiiiiiiii
June 1, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then you're not really a Democrat.
June 1, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and this lady.
How about we just call you what you are, a Republican?
June 1, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bet they're the same... thing.
June 1, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember Othello , A big black ram is tupping yor white ewe...Get over it you have been had BAAAAAAAh
June 1, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, well, say goodbye to legal, safe abortions.
June 1, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is knee deep in the common stink
June 1, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Hillbot nutjobs that will vote for McCain probably number in the hundreds and most live in New York and other Dem strongholds that will go Blue anyway.
Any Hillbot defectors in the Rocky Mountain swing states will be outnumbered ffifty times over by the independents and GOP mutineers who come aboard for Obama.
In the end, crackpots like Mathew Weaver and Reek won't put a dent in Obama's electoral victory.
June 1, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. What, 500 showed up yesterday when it was supposed to be 10,000?
I don't think Hillary has as many kamikaze supporters as raeK and hillaryis44 would like us to believe.
June 1, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to get blown out in PR.
June 1, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Bill is going to get blown in PR.
June 1, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a little tired of hearing people compare the voting in Michigan and Florida to the civil rights struggle. Does any really believe that there is any comparison? If the full delegations were seated, wouldn't this punish voters who took the DNC at their word by not bothering with the primary? It seems to me that either way, votes won't be counted. Which, for me, means that the only further question is whether the DNC, who I do believe could have handled this better from the beginning, is to look completely feckless or not.
I think that the compromise was very fair. The DNC couldn't seat the delegates with no punishment whatsoever; this would encourage both states and candidates to flout the rules in the future. As for Michigan, to have given Hillary delegates and Obama none, even after halving them, would have been to punish Obama for *following* DNC rules. Obviously, that is not acceptable.
I haven't heard a single coherent argument from any Clinton supporter to the contrary; I've only heard bluster and demagoguery.
If there is a Clinton supporter out there that would like to enlighten me, then please do so; don't bluster; make an argument. I really do want to hear it.
June 1, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will it be better for 20 or so SD's to endorse tomorrow so the voters in S.Dakota and Montana can put Obama over the top? Or wait until Wednesday to endorse en masse when Obama is >20 away from the magic number?
June 1, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, definitely better if they did it before SD and MT. Obama wants to declare victory after the final polls close, at the site of the RNC convention and move on to the GE. He doesn't want to declare victory in a press release on Wednesday saying 10 SDs pushed him over the magic number.
June 1, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
i vote for the former. But I am from MI, so my vote won't count, or maybe will count wednesday, but maybe only by half. Screw it, I take my vote back and will just wait for the outcome.
June 1, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink