Barack Obama's post-primary bump might be starting to subside, the latest Gallup poll finds.

Today's poll finds Obama narrowly leading John McCain by a 45%-42% margin, with a ±2% margin of error. A week ago, Obama was enjoying a 48%-42% lead.

On the other hand, Rasmussen has not shown any such decline yet, with Obama's lead remaining steady at 49%-43%.

At a fundraiser last night in Philadelphia -- a unity event of sorts, featuring former Hillary-backers Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter -- Barack Obama vowed that he will not be passive in the face of political attacks: "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."

Obama has to strike a careful balance between his promises of hope and optimism, against the pitfall of allowing himself to become a political doormat. One benefit of the long primary season is that he learned how to pull that trick off against Hillary Clinton -- and now he can do it against John McCain.

The McCain camp was quick to object: "Barack Obama's call for 'new politics' is officially over."

Although Hillary Clinton has asked her delegates to support Barack Obama, one particular delegate is taking the polar-opposite route. Debra Bartoshevich, a Hillary pledged delegate from Wisconsin, has now announced that she's supporting John McCain.

"I'm sure people are going to be upset with me," Bartoshevich told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "I don't want to lose my national delegate status."

Bartoshevich is upset at Hillary Clinton's loss, and quoted the great suffragette Susan B. Anthony as an inspiration: "No self-respecting woman should wish or work for the success of a party that ignores her."

Late Update: State Dems have voted to file a complaint at the Credentials Committee in Denver, moving to strip Bartoshevich of her delegate status.

Tim Russert has died of a heart attack, his family has told The New York Times.

No further details are available. More soon.

An emotional Tom Brokaw announces the grim news:

"This news division will not be the same without his strong, clear voice," Brokaw said. "He'll be missed as he was loved -- greatly."

Brokaw also added that Russert moved his father, who was in his 80s, from one facility to another today.

Late Update at 3:40 P.M.: The New York Post quotes a source saying that Russert collapsed at NBC's Washington bureau.

He was 58 years old, and as the host of Meet the Press and a frequent debate moderator, he had a major impact on this presidential race, among many others. Russert came from politics, having served as press secretary to former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and as chief of staff to Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

Late Update at 3:49 P.M.: Here's the piece from MSNBC, with more biographical detail.

Late Update at 3:56 P.M.: Howard Kurtz, on CNN: He was "fully engaged in the art of covering politics." Kurtz adds that since Russert did politics at a high level on both sides -- as an aide to Moynihan, and as a journalist -- he uniquely filled a niche that will be very tough to fill now.

Late Update at 4:09 P.M.: Harry Reid:

"I was greatly saddened to learn of Tim Russert's untimely death. Tim was a warm and gracious family man with a great zest for life and an unsurpassed passion for his work. His rise from working-class roots to become a well-respected leader in political journalism is an inspiration to many. Tim asked the tough questions the right way and was the best in the business at keeping his interview subjects honest. My thoughts are with his family."

Late Update at 4:28 P.M.: John McCain:

"I am very saddened by Tim Russert's sudden death. Cindy and I extend our thoughts and prayers to the Russert family as they cope with this shocking loss and remember the life and legacy of a loving father, husband and the preeminent political journalist of his generation. He was truly a great American who loved his family, his friends, his Buffalo Bills, and everything about politics and America. He was just a terrific guy. I was proud to call him a friend, and in the coming days, we will pay tribute to a life whose contributions to us all will long endure."

Late Updateat 4:37 P.M.: President Bush:

Laura and I are deeply saddened by the sudden passing of Tim Russert. Those of us who knew and worked with Tim, his many friends, and the millions of Americans who loyally followed his career on the air will all miss him.

As the longest-serving host of the longest-running program in the history of television, he was an institution in both news and politics for more than two decades. Tim was a tough and hardworking newsman. He was always well-informed and thorough in his interviews. And he was as gregarious off the set as he was prepared on it.

Most important, Tim was a proud son and father, and Laura and I offer our deepest sympathies to his wife Maureen, his son Luke, and the entire Russert family. We will keep them in our prayers.

Late Update at 4:54 P.M.: Barack Obama, in Ohio, comments:

"We all I think have heard the news about Tim Russert. I've known Tim Russert since I first spoke at the convention in 2004. He's somebody who over time I came to consider not only a journalist, but a friend.

"There wasn't a better interviewer in television, not a more thoughtful analyst of our politics, and he was also one of the finest men I knew. Somebody who cared about America, cared about the issues, cared about family. I am grief-stricken with the loss, and my thoughts and prayers go out to his family. And I hope that even though Tim is irreplaceable, that the standard that he set in his professional life and his family life are standards that we all carry with us in our own lives."

Video of Obama here.

Late Update at 4:58 P.M.: Al Gore:

The US and the world have a lost a great journalist, interviewer and author. He was an original and will be greatly missed.

Late Update at 5:27 P.M.: Bill and Hillary Clinton, who had a long and complex relationship with Russert...

"We were stunned and deeply saddened to hear of the passing today of Tim Russert. Our thoughts and prayers are with his wife Maureen, his son Luke, his father who we all have come to know as Big Russ, his extended family and all of his many friends and colleagues at NBC who have suffered a tremendous loss. Always true to his proud Buffalo roots, Tim had a love of public service and a dedication to journalism that rightfully earned him the respect and admiration of not only his colleagues but also those of us who had the privilege to go toe to toe with him. In seeking answers to tough questions, he helped inform the American people and make our democracy stronger. We join his friends, fans and loved ones in mourning his loss and celebrating his remarkable contribution to our nation."

Late Update at 6:05 P.M.: Howard Dean:

"Today we lost one of the true giants of American journalism and a tremendous public servant. Tim Russert will be remembered for many things. A committed family man, devout Catholic, devout sports fan, author, mentor. A tough interviewer, Tim delivered the news with authority, in a plain-spoken way that made the great issues of our day accessible to everyone. His love of politics and our country came through in his relentless pursuit of the truth and in the quality of his work as a journalist. On this sad day, our thoughts and prayers are with his family and loved ones."

Late Update at 6:08 P.M.: Russert's colleague, Chuck Todd, offers an emotional tribute...

This has to be one of the strangest things we've seen in some time.

Take a look at this video of Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon -- a Republican who has supported both the anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment and anti-discrimination laws and domestic partner benefits -- struggling pretty hard to clarify his position on gay marriage and equal rights for individuals.

Smith appeared to be likening discrimination against gays to the persecution faced by his Mormon ancestors for their views on marriage:

Smith:

"Part of what I fear, as you start defining marriage -- we have a long history of doing that in this country, and my Mormon pioneer ancestors were the victims of that. They were literally driven from the United States in the dead of winter for following their religious beliefs. I don't want that coming back."

Huh?

We're still not entirely sure what Smith's position is on gay marriage, or how exactly it relates to the persecution of Mormons over a century ago. Unsurprisingly, calls and e-mails to his office asking for clarification yesterday were not returned.

Five joint appearances between the two presidential candidates between now and Election Day isn't enough?

That's the McCain campaign's claim, now that it has rejected Obama's offer to conduct three traditional debates, plus a joint town hall in July, and another debate on foreign policy in August.

And as a result, the talks between the two campaigns over how and whether to hold these joint appearances has broken down.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis sent a letter to the Obama forces telling them that their offer was unacceptable because only one of the five meetings would be a "town hall" style event. The McCain camp wants 10 joint town hall meetings, because these "offer the best format for presenting both candidates' visions for our country's future in a substantive way," Davis wrote.

To which Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded in a statement sent out by the campaign: "That package of five engagements would have been the most of any Presidential campaign in the modern era."

The McCain camp clearly sees the town hall format as their only hope of offsetting Obama's superior oratorical skills. As we've now learned the hard way, McCain's speechifying is flatter than a piece of matzoh under the wheel of a tractor-trailer truck.

The Obama camp's full response after the jump.

Read more »

Is this John McCain's idea of bipartisanship?

At a campaign rally in New Hampshire yesterday, the McCain campaign played the classic 1970s song "Still The One" over the loudspeakers. One problem: The principal author of the song, John Hall, is a freshman Democratic Congressman from New York who is supporting Barack Obama.

Hall reacted strongly in an interview with NBC News, saying the GOP should immediately stop using his song: "The only one John McCain is 'Still the One' for is George Bush."

Back in 2004, Hall sent cease-and-desist letters to the Bush campaign after they played the song at a rally of theirs, and his wishes that they stop were quickly honored.

This chart, buried in a new Pew global poll, is a pretty stark illustration of just how different the rest of the world's views of our presidential election are from ours...

As you can see, Obama is viewed with confidence by majorities in many countries, and in all of them more have confidence in him than in McCain (though the confidence level in both drops pretty low in some countries). Only in the United States does McCain pull even with Obama.

The numbers give a good deal of weight to the idea that an Obama victory would go a long way towards restoring America's global image, obviously.

Of course, you get the sense that to many Republicans, being viewed positively by the rest of the world might be a negative, a sign that we're not kicking enough global butt or whatever. So perhaps the Repubs will use this data to attack Obama: "Vote for McCain -- because France and Pakistan are rooting for Obama to win!"

Wow, this one really spells trouble for the GOP this fall -- the guy in charge of the party's Senate races just basically wrote off the Republicans' chances in two of their five open seats.

At yesterday's Christian Science Monitor forum -- the same venue where he upgraded the GOP's goal to a potential three-seat loss -- NRSC chairman John Ensign was asked point-blank if the party was giving up on the open seats they currently hold in Virginia and New Mexico, where the Democratic nominees are way ahead of the Republicans in current polling.

Ensign said bluntly: "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win."

Here's as good an indication as any that the Obama campaign is dead serious about trying to put Virginia in play.

The campaign says that they're sending Mitch Stewart, one of Obama's star organizers, into the state to serve as Virginia's state director. This is no small thing. Stewart served as Obama's Iowa caucus director, where he was in charge of the whole field effort, pulling off a major coup and helping deliver the victory that essentially put Obama on track to victory.

Stewart served as Tom Daschle's field director in 2004 and was regional director for John Edwards in Iowa in 2003.

Virginia will be a very interesting state to watch this fall.

In an interesting peek into John McCain's personal finances, it turns out that John and Cindy McCain -- in spite of their personal wealth -- are carrying well over $100,000 in credit card debt.

The Hill took a look at the latest Senate financial disclosure forms and found that a joint card held by the two has between $10,000 and $15,000 in charges, while a card that is solely in Cindy's name has between $100,000 and $250,000 in debt. Another card for a dependent child has between $15,000 and $50,000 in charges.

This is despite Cindy McCain having sold a property in California for a profit of more than $1 million.

Barack Obama, who has become wealthy in recent years thanks to book royalties, did not report any financial liabilities.

As we first reported here, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wooed top Clinton donors at a private presentation in Manhattan yesterday, and the early indications are that such efforts are paying off.

Top Hillary supporter Ed Rendell is hosting a fundraiser for Obama tonight in Philadelphia. My sense from talking to Hillary donors is that from their point of view, there's just no percentage in not getting behind Obama, and while there's definitely still a bit of grumbling in these circles, they're basically falling into line.

One thing driving this is that Obama, according to Rendell, is privately signaling to the leading Clinton fundraisers that it's urgent that the Dem fundraising establishment come together and raise huge sums to combat the McCain-GOP apparatus -- right now. And the fundraisers are heeding the call.

Barack Obama will be attacking John McCain today on Social Security -- a crucial political issue that could help him get a better share among middle-aged voters and senior citizens, if he can successfully tie McCain to President Bush's failed 2005 push to privatize Social Security.

"He said he supports private accounts for Social Security - in his words, 'along the lines that President Bush proposed,'" Obama will say in Philadelphia, according to pre-released excerpts. "Yesterday he tried to deny that he ever took that position, leaving us wondering if he had a change of heart or a change of politics."

The Obama campaign is moving to get a quick start on the general election, and is moving ahead with a plan to send 3,600 volunteers to 17 key states this weekend. The volunteers will work full time for the next six weeks, referred to as "Obama Organizing Fellowships."

The Obama campaign appears determined to avoid the pitfall of letting their grassroots enthusiasm dissipate after a major victory -- namely, winning the nomination -- while there is still even more work to be done for the general election.

Al Franken is continuing to make it a close race for Senate in Minnesota, with a new Rasmussen poll giving incumbent Republican Norm Coleman a narrow 48%-45% edge, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

One potential wild card is whether former Gov. Jesse Ventura enters the race, which would hurt Franken -- a three-way match would give Coleman 39%, Franken 32%, and Ventura 24%.

Franken has been hurt recently by controversies surrounding his personal finances and sexually-explicit comedy routines he'd written, but has in his favor the fact that he's running in a good year for Democrats, and in a state that is likely to go for Barack Obama by a wide margin.

Democratic chances are seen to be improving for another key House seat, with CQ changing its rating on the open seat of New York GOP Rep. Vito Fossellla from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

This seat wasn't on anybody's radar until several weeks ago, when Fossella was caught up in a series of personal scandals that led to his retirement. Republicans have selected unknown businessman Frank Powers to be their candidate, while Democrats have rallied around New York City Councillor Mike McMahon.

The district voted 55% for President Bush in 2004, the only New York City district to vote for him. But the district previously went to Al Gore in 2000, and represents a serious pick-up opportunity for Dems in a strong year.

A new number from the latest Hotline/Diageo poll goes a long way toward dispelling the idea that Barack Obama is leading a seriously divided party. On the contrary, the poll suggests that it's John McCain who has a problem in this regard.

The poll, conducted in the wake of Obama's clinching the nomination and including sampling dates from before Hillary Clinton's final concession, found that 68% of Democratic primary voters were satisfied with Obama as the nominee, with 30% preferring someone else.

By contrast, only 52% of Republican primary voters were satisfied with John McCain as their nominee, with 45% preferring someone else. And this is despite the fact that McCain sewed up his nomination months ago, while Democratic emotions were still raw when this poll was conducted.

A recent ad blitz by GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who has become a target of national Democrats in the normally red state of North Carolina, appears to be paying off. A new Rasmussen poll shows Dole taking a huge 53%-39% lead over her Democratic challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan.

A Rasmussen poll from a month ago gave Hagan a one-point lead in the wake of her primary victory. Since then, however, Hagan has not gone back up on the air, while Dole has run two different statewide ads in the last two weeks.

The Republican Senator in charge of the party's coordinated effort this Fall has clarified exactly what their goal is: It would be a "terrific night" to lose three seats.

"I think it would be a great night, especially, [to lose] three seats -- that would be a terrific night for us, absolutely," NRSC chairman John Ensign told a lunch hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "I don't want to slip below the four-seat loss -- that's kind of where we set our absolute worst goal, is to be down to 45 seats."

Ensign took some heat a few days ago when he set the GOP's goal at only losing eight seats or less -- which would put Dems ahead in the Senate 59-41 as a worst case scenario for the GOP.

So Ensign has now gone from a worst-case goal of 59-41 to 55-45. Does this mean things are improving?

This is kind of fun: Check out how Republican National Committee chair Robert Duncan bobbed, weaved, ducked, and dithered when asked directly by reporters if the GOP would rule out use of footage of Reverend Wright in attack ads.

First Duncan made the obligatory high-minded noises about how, as John McCain himself has said, the GOP takes Obama "at his word" about Wright and won't make him an issue (though they will happily tar Obama with Tony Rezko and William Ayers)...

"We're talking about judgment; we're talking about association, but we're taking Senator Obama at his word about Reverend Wright, the fact that he said he didn't hear those sermons, the fact that he's disassociated himself from it," Duncan said.

"So that's not something you're going to hear me talking about. I am going to talk about Rezko and Ayers and all of the others."

Ahhh, but wait...

But when he was asked whether he'd pledge not to use videos of Wright's sermons in ads, Duncan refused.

"Well, why at this point would I answer a question like that? It's not my intent. I have no intent, and will not make race a part of this campaign. I'll say it that way," he said.

Do McCain and the Republicans view Wright as fair game, or not? I don't know why we can't get some straight talk on this question...

In a further good omen for House Democrats as they seek to expand their majority this Fall, CQ has upgraded its rating for the Dems on the northern Virginia House seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Davis, from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democrat."

Primaries on Tuesday elected Democratic Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax county board, and Republican businessman Keith Fimian, to be their parties' respective nominees. Connolly is a strong fundraiser with high name recognition, and should be able to stay competitive against any potential self-financing by Fimian.

Northern Virginia's swing to the Democrats has been responsible for major Dem gains in recent years, most notably the election of Jim Webb to the Senate. The district went to George W. Bush by less than one point in 2004, and in a strong year for the Dems could plausibly be carried by Barack Obama, which would make it quite difficult for the GOP to hold on here.

Call it the Embarrass Rick Davis Act of 2008.

Rick Davis, of course, is John McCain's campaign manager, and has taken a hit for doing business with companies with ties to Iran. Now Barack Obama has signed on as a co-sponsor of a bill to subject American lobbyists like Davis to tighter disclosure requirements if they work on behalf of foreign entities.

During a conference call with reporters, Sen. Chuck Schumer insisted the bill wasn't primarily influenced by Davis, but instead by some lobbying activities by the Iraqi government that were discovered in recent weeks. However, he said, Davis would be affected by the bill.

Schumer invited McCain to sign on as a co-sponsor of the bill -- a pretty aggressive throwing down of the gauntlet, since it puts McCain in the tough spot of either signing on, and making life difficult for all the lobbyists on his campaign, or refusing, and ceding the reformer high ground to Obama.

No comment yet from the McCain camp.

Some new poll numbers from CNN show that John McCain is besting Barack Obama on who would best handle foreign policy (54%-43%), while Obama is ahead on who would best handle the economy (50%-44%).

That's not terribly surprising. But there's another interesting number buried in here.

The poll also finds that roughly the same percentage think that each candidate has the "personality and leadership qualities a President should have." Sixty three percent agree that Obama has these qualities, while 66% say McCain does -- within the margin of error.

This suggests that the McCain camp has lots of work to do in carrying out its primary game plan of portraying Obama as somehow inherently unfit for the office, as opposed to winning the argument on the issues, which the GOP is obviously not in a very good position to do right now.

A Democrat with knowledge of the Obama campaign's rapid takeover of the Democratic National Committee today points out to me that this is partly about ensuring that the Illinois Senator avoids the fate of John Kerry, whose 2004 presidential campaign was hampered by behind-the-scenes battles with the DNC.

You may recall that the DNC chair in 2004 was one Terry McAuliffe, and in his book, McAuliffe wrote about the back-stage infighting between the DNC and Kerry camps. McAuliffe said that Kerry's aides had wanted to oust him; that relations were chilly throughout the campaign; and that the Kerry camp muzzled him when he wanted to assail George W. Bush's military record.

By contrast, upon securing the nomination, Obama very quickly put out a statement showering praise on Howard Dean; is now moving to put staff in all 50-states, in concert with Dean's approach; and is quite literally moving swaths of the DNC to Chicago to create a unified organization with the sort of party-wide message discipline that has eluded Dems in the past.

In the primary, the Obama campaign was famously devoid of (publicly visible) infighting and/or leaking, and clearly, he's taking aggressive steps right now to ensure that this success is duplicated in the general.

Barack Obama's promise to make a play for North Carolina -- a state that has consistently voted Republican since 1980 -- might just have some potential to really pay off, a new poll from Rasmussen suggests.

The numbers: McCain 45%, Obama 43%, within the ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that have shown McCain with only a small lead here.

Another bad sign for McCain is that 54% of respondents said it's more important to bring the troops home form Iraq than it is to win the war, versus only 40% who think victory is more important than leaving -- a very bad finding for McCain in this traditionally red state.

Obama's rapid takeover of the Democratic Party continues apace:

In a major shakeup at the Democratic National Committee -- and a departure from tradition -- large parts of the committee's operations are relocating to Chicago to be fully integrated with the Obama campaign.

The DNC's political department, housed in Washington, D.C., will be dramatically rebuilt, with staffers offered a choice of moving to Chicago, joining state operations, or staying in Washington, DNC spokeswoman Karen Finney said.

But with the power will clearly be shifting to a centralized Chicago hub.

The DNC's key role in coordinating political operations with state parties is expected to largely taken over and overseen by Obama's senior staff in Chicago, state party officials said.

In addition, Ben Smith also notes that staffers for Howard Dean's 50 state strategy will be shifted over to work for the campaign in battleground states. Coming after Obama's directive to his donors not to give to 527s, it's the latest sign of how rapidly he's moving both to remake the party in his own image and to impose message discipline on it.

As part of their new counter-offensive against Internet smears, the Obama campaign has moved to put a stop to any idea that his birth certificate would contain some dirty secret -- for example, that he might have actually been born in another country. Here it is, newly released by the campaign, a birth certificate from Hawaii:

Conservative pundit Jim Geraghty had been speculating that Obama might have some other ulterior motive for not releasing the certificate -- that Obama's given name might have been "Barry" and changed to Barack in some sort of identity crisis.

Well, so much for that.

(Via Daily Kos, who got the certificate first.)

A source tells us that Vice President Dick Cheney was spotted entering Joe Lieberman's Senate office today.

The Veep's press office confirms it. We'll be bringing you more on what happened soon...

Late Update: It turns out that Cheney and Lieberman were both being interviewed by a Connecticut radio show. Transcript here.

John McCain has claimed that he doesn't want independent groups to attack Barack Obama, but in a new interview he says that, well, there really isn't anything he can do about it if those groups do decide to swift boat the Democrat:

GOP presidential contender John McCain says he can't control every attack ad aimed at Democrat Barack Obama and fully expects he'll face a similar barrage, sounding the bell for a raucous general election brawl.

"I can't be a referee of every spot run on television," McCain told the Herald in an exclusive interview. "I admire Sen. Obama and his accomplishments, but we all know there are groups who want to attack me."

The Arizona senator's hands-off posture on attack ads by now-infamous tax-free and unaccountable political groups called 527s marks a softening of his view on the negative campaign tactic -- and opens the door to a no-holds-barred five-month scramble.

Via The Page. As McCain says, there are in fact groups who want to attack McCain. But guess what -- Obama's finance team has explicitly instructed donors not to give money to those groups. McCain, by contrast, seems to be saying that he can't control the groups on his side.

If McCain can't stand up to the 527s, how is he going to take on Al Qaeda?

Barack Obama is in good shape in the swing state of Wisconsin, a new poll from the state university finds. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 37%, well beyond the ±4.5% margin of error.

In a bad sign for John McCain, 66% of respondents said the war in Iraq was not worth righting, and only 24% of Wisconsinites now consider themselves Republicans, compared to 38% Democrats and 29% independents.

GQ is about to post a very interesting, and long, interview with Mark Penn that has a bunch of news in it.

We have some advance excerpts. Here, for instance, is Penn saying that he recognized early on what a phenomenon Obama is and wanted to attack Obama more aggressively, particularly on Iraq, but unnamed others on the campaign opposed it:

GQ: How did you underestimate him [meaning Barack Obama]?

Mark Penn: I think I never underestimated it, that once you had that kind of candidate, that that kind of candidate could be real trouble. And that if that candidate... You know, if Obama won Iowa, it would really change, dramatically change, the situation going forward. And consequently, I really wanted to question Obama as early as possible.

GQ: You wanted to hit him harder?

Well, I wanted to question the basic underpinning of his campaign... His problems in his campaign were (1) that he didn't have the usual experience of somebody running for president, and (2) that the positions he took on Iraq--you know, that were revered by the press--didn't really hold up when you look through his record in the Senate.

GQ: Why didn't you?

Well, I started down that road.... President Clinton took on the Iraq back-and-forth. But the rest of the campaign didn't want to tackle Iraq. They always felt that that was a losing proposition for her, and they always pulled it back.

Penn also sharply attacked the press, arguing that members of the media "fell in love" with Obama...

GQ: When you talk about the media and the treatment of her, you know, part of it--in the beginning of the campaign, back when it seemed like she was the inevitable nominee--she was really distant from the press. Don't you think that had something to do with the fact that the press fell in love with Obama?

Well...no. [laughs] The press fell in love with him, period.

GQ: Why?

The press always falls in love with the new cool intellectual candidate. You know, he is their kind of candidate. Go back through history. They didn't like Al Gore. They loved Gary Hart. They love those kinds of candidates, always have. But--but--but look, I think that he was the first African-American, you know, credible presidential candidate was a factor behind how much the press was enthusiastic about him. But she was also the first woman candidate. But the standard...

You know, the microscope that they put her under, that they did not put her opponent and opponents under, was just incredible. I don't think anybody has ever been put under this kind of microscope running for president. There were certain times early in the campaign where she would try to be...do what people tell her, and say, "Hey, I'll be more relaxed, I'll tell a little joke." But every time she told the joke, it became a, you know, a federal case. Her words are parsed. Every single word is parsed. By the right, by the left, by the press.

More coming from the interview soon.

John McCain is making a major play for Michigan, a must-win swing state for Barack Obama, with ad buys estimated at $500,000 per week.

Obama was hurt somewhat by the controversies surrounding Michigan's rogue primaries, mainly due to his inability to actively organize and campaign here as he did in almost all of the other states.

A recent poll gave Obama a narrow lead here, as he plays catch-up in campaign appearances. But make no mistake -- given Michigan's historically close results in the presidential race, both nominees will be spending a lot of time and money here.

A new Rasmussen poll of Iowa confirms that Barack Obama is enjoying a post-primary bounce across the country, leading John McCain 45%-38%, a solid margin with the poll's ±4% margin of error.

Iowa is a crucial battleground state that voted for Al Gore in 2000, but then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004. A month ago, Obama led here by only 44%-42% in Rasmussen's polling.

His job now, of course, is to sustain his post-primary bounce, which is historically a tough job to perform.

Barack Obama's campaign is taking the various rumors about him very seriously, and have rolled out a new Web site specifically to combat them, FightTheSmears.com.

The final straw was the story that there was a tape of Michelle Obama making incendiary statements at Trinity United Church of Christ -- a story that appears to have been based on a political novel. Other phony rumors being addressed so far are that he is supposedly a Muslim, was educated in a madrassa, that his books contain racially offensive statements, and that he won't say the Pledge of Allegiance.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 47%-41% in the latest NBC/Wall St. Journal poll, just outside the the ±3.1% margin of error and consistent with other polls giving Obama a post-primary bump.

More importantly, Obama is ahead with key demographics where his electability had previously been questioned. Obama leads among women 52%-33%, with Catholics 47%-40%, among independents 41%-36%, and even 47%-42% with blue-collar workers.

And contrary to the idea that his poor primary performances among Hispanics reflected an electability problem, he now leads 62%-28% with that group -- well ahead of John Kerry's 53%-44% advantage in 2004.

John McCain's big advantage is with white men, where he leads 55%-35% -- the only reason the race is as close as it is, according to the pollster's analysis.

Remember "Mean Jean" Schmidt, the Ohio Republican who famously called retired Marine Jack Murtha a coward for advocating withdrawal from Iraq?

Now she's lived up to her "Mean Jean" nickname name again, with a new snarling line of attack: Accusing her Democratic opponent, a medical doctor, of doing "grotesque medical experiments" on innocent people.

A source sends us a fundraising letter that Schmidt sent out in her district against Dem nominee Victoria Wulsin, who narrowly lost two years ago and is now mounting a second tough challenge being closely watched by national Dems. From the letter:

Wulsin's contempt for the culture of life has even led her to participate in grotesque medical experiments. Wulsin was paid for her work in medical "studies" where victims of AIDS in Africa and China were, without their consent, injected with the malaria virus, all in the name of "scientific inquiry."

Wow. This is, to put it mildly, a very serious accusation. And according to the Wulsin camp, it's also false -- Wulsin has never participated in this sort of human vivisection, and in no case was anyone injected with anything without consent.

Read more »

Bobby Jindal, the 36-year old governor of Louisiana, is being taken seriously by the national press as a candidate on the shortlist to be John McCain's Vice President. No one doubts that he's a political prodigy -- his impressive resume includes stints as president of the state university system, a Congressman and now governor.

But one of Jindal's job titles hasn't gotten much attention -- and it just might prompt a few questions if his Veep candidacy gains steam: Exorcist.

As others noted during his 2003 and 2007 gubernatorial campaigns (see update), in an essay Jindal wrote in 1994 for the New Oxford Review, a serious right-wing Catholic journal, Jindal narrated a bizarre story of a personal encounter with a demon, in which he participated in an exorcism with a group of college friends. And not only did they cast out the supernatural spirit that had possessed his friend, Jindal wrote that he believes that their ritual may well have cured her cancer.

Reading the article leaves no doubt that Jindal -- who graduated from Brown University in 1991, was a Rhodes Scholar, and had been accepted at Yale Law School and Harvard Medical School when he wrote the essay -- was completely serious about the encounter. He even said the experience "reaffirmed" his faith.

Jindal's affection for battling demons never surfaced during Jindal's failed run for governor in 2003 or his successful one in 2007. The state Dems did make an issue in 2007 out of Jindal's extreme Catholicism and his view of Protestant tenets as heretical, but the effort provoked a backlash among voters who thought the assault was religious bigotry. So Dems didn't make an issue out of Jindal's experiment.

But Jindal's battle with the dark forces may become an issue should his Veep candidacy proceed. While it's hardly a blockbuster revelation, it could provide fodder for bloggers and late-night comics to turn his candidacy into a media sideshow.

If you're interested in the details about Jindal's spiritually experimental past, we have lots more for you after the jump. It's lively stuff.

Read more »

The other day, EMILY's List president Ellen Malcolm revealed that she's not over her "anger and grief" at Hillary's loss, but that hasn't stopped her from coming out with a full-throated endorsement of Obama.

Malcolm and other of Hillary's most loyal supporters convened a conference call today to make an aggressive case for Obama and against McCain...

"We are here to sound the alarm bell," said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz, D-Fla., on a conference call with reporters Wednesday, "In order to advance the progress that women have made in the last decade and in order to improve the lives of women and their children, the last thing in the world that women need to do is vote for John McCain."

"Senator McCain is out of touch with the lives these women are leading and he is against many of the policy positions that they hold," said Ellen Malcolm, president of EMILY's List, a national organization that fundraises for pro-choice women candidates.

This sort of stuff will be central to Obama's efforts to prevent whatever female defections to McCain that might occur, with Roe v. Wade, of course, being at the center of the argument.

Meanwhile, a new Gallup poll today finds that Obama has jumped to a double-digit lead among women since Hillary quit, leading McCain 51%-38%.

Jim Johnson, who took a hammering from the McCain campaign and the GOP for his special mortgage from Countrywide, has decided to resign from the campaign.

Here's the statement, from Obama himself...

"Jim did not want to distract in any way from the very important task of gathering information about my vice presidential nominee, so he has made a decision to step aside that I accept. We have a very good selection process underway, and I am confident that it will produce a number of highly qualified candidates for me to choose from in the weeks ahead. I remain grateful to Jim for his service and his efforts in this process."

Late Update: The obvious political context here is that Johnson isn't just a distraction from the Veep search; he also made Obama's attacks on McCain over the subprime mortgage crisis tougher to sustain.

Late Late Update: Johnson's departure might have been hastened by the fact that the flap hit the front page of today's Washington Post.

The controversy over the failed revote in Michigan -- a crucial state for Dems -- may not be hurting the Dem nominee after all, a new poll suggests.

The new Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead of John McCain 45%-42%, a result within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, it was McCain who had the statistically insignificant edge, coming in at 45% to Obama's 44%.

There was previously some concern that the battle over the state's delegates might hurt Obama's electability here. But with those questions settled and Obama now the presumptive Democratic nominee, expect him to making even more appearances here in order to secure this Dem-leaning swing state -- and except McCain to be stopping by, too.

There was a fun moment on the McCain conference call held a little while ago to defend his claim that it's "not too important" when the troops come home.

This is what Joe Lieberman had to say in defending McCain's comment:

I mean the obvious fact is that more than most any American, Senator McCain knows the sacrifices that our men and women in uniform make, and the burden that their families bear. And it really is wrong to suggest otherwise. And obviously he knows that from his own -- well, from his father's service, and the impact it had on his family; from his own service and incarceration...

Of course, we keep hearing that John McCain is reluctant to invoke his war service in a political context. He told us so himself the other day.

So on the call, a reporter quite naturally asked McCain senior advisor Randy Scheunemann if Lieberman's evocation of McCain's service in this highly charged political context meant there was a shift of some kind and that we'd be seeing more of this.

"We're not gonna comment on that," Scheunemann said.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

The McCain campaign is holding a conference call in a few minutes to defend his claim today that it's "not too important" when the troops come home.

Needless to say, the person the McCain camp is wheeling out to defend this is none other than Joe Lieberman.

Could it have been any other way?

Late Update: On the call, Lieberman dismissed the controversy as "another partisan attempt to distort John McCain's words to distract the American people from the fact that John McCain has been both courageous and right about the surge, and Barack Obama has been consistently wrong."

The McCain campaign is battling back hard against the criticism of his claim today that it's "not too important" when the troops come home from Iraq.

The McCain camp sent out this video of the fuller context of his remarks -- take a look:

Here's the statement from McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds blasting Dems -- and, presumably, us, since we posted shorter vid -- for ignoring the fuller context here:

"The Obama campaign is embarking on a false attack on John McCain to hide their own candidate's willingness to disregard facts on the ground in pursuit of withdrawal no matter what the costs. John McCain was asked if he had a 'better estimate' for a timeline for withdrawal. As John McCain has always said, that is not as important as conditions on the ground and the recommendations of commanders in the field. Any reasonable person who reads the full transcript would see this and reject the Obama campaign's attempt to manipulate, twist and distort the truth."

The thing is, though, that McCain didn't merely say that when the troops come home is "not as important" as other factors, as the statement says. Rather, he said that it was "not too important" when they come home.

This is precisely what Dems are criticizing today, and it's unclear to me why the larger context changes this basic fact about what he said. Indeed, McCain's belief that the timing of withdrawal is not too important is really the centerpiece of the argument between the GOP and Dems, who argue that withdrawing without delay is extremely important -- both to the troops themselves, and because of our overstretched military.

But at any rate, you now have the McCain campaign's push-back on this.

McCain's incendiary quote from this morning -- in which he said the timing of the return of troops from Iraq is "not too important" -- is now at the center of today's battle between the two campaigns.

On an Obama campaign conference call with reporters just now, prominent Obama supporter John Kerry unleashed blistering criticism of McCain over the comments.

Speaking of military families, Kerry said: "To them it's the most important thing in the world when they come home."

Kerry also cast the comments as proof that McCain is befuddled about the situation our military finds itself in. "Our generals have made it crystal clear that we cannot sustain our forces in Iraq at this level," he said.

"Senator McCain, it is important when they come home," Kerry concluded. "It is important when we can revitalize our military."

The key here is that the Obama camp is hitting McCain over the meaning of his comments as the McCain campaign itself defines them. The McCain camp points out -- rightly -- that McCain was asked specifically about the timing of the troops' return when he uttered the words "not too important."

To which Kerry and the Obama camp rejoins that the timing is extraordinarily important -- to the troops, their families, and to the military itself.

As we watch the coverage of this unfold today, it's worth keeping in mind how big a controversy this would be if a Dem had said this.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

The McCain campaign has sent me a statement on the quote we posted on below, in which McCain appeared to say that the timing of when the troops in Iraq come home is "not too important."

The story is snowballing rapidly. Dem leader Harry Reid has already hit McCain over the remarks today, and more Dems will be piling on shortly. Indeed, the Obama campaign is holding a conference call on this later this morning.

Here's what McCain's online guru, Patrick Hynes, sent over...

Sen. McCain has consistently opposed a timeline for withdrawing our troops from Iraq. And our friends on the opposite side of the aisle have a long history of attempting to twist Sen. McCain's words on Iraq. The fact that Sen. McCain opposes a timeline for withdrawal and is principally concerned about the safety of American troops and the security of Iraq is pretty much "dog bites man."

Of course, McCain did actually say the timing of when the troops come hope is "not too important." But in fairness to the McCain camp, they are arguing that he didn't say that the act of bringing the troops home is not too important.

Rather, they say, McCain merely meant that the timing of when they come home is not too important.

This strikes me as a not terribly meaningful distinction, and it isn't a great way to characterize the timing issue, given that it's obviously extremely important to many people. But it is a distinction worth noting nonetheless, because it's true that the question McCain answered was about the timing.

It looks as if the John McCain quote we posted on below -- in which he said the timing of when the troops should come home is "not too important" -- is going to blow up into a big story today.

Harry Reid just became the first Dem to blast McCain over the comment, with his office sending over this statement...

"McCain's statement today that withdrawing troops doesn't matter is a crystal clear indicator that he just doesn't get the grave national-security consequences of staying the course -- Osama bin Laden is freely plotting attacks, our efforts in Afghanistan are undermanned, and our military readiness has been dangerously diminished. We need a smart change in strategy to make America more secure, not a commitment to indefinitely keep our troops in an intractable civil war."

More soon.

There are only two Dem Senate seats that have been seen to be at all vulnerable -- Louisiana and New Jersey -- and now a new poll finds that New Jersey may be on its way to being safe.

The new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey shows incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP nominee Dick Zimmer 47%-38%, much better for Lautenberg than a Rasmussen survey from two days ago that had the race as a statistical tie.

If Lautenberg is in fact in good shape politically, then the Senate Dems can be confident of going into this Fall with hardly any weak spots.

Uh oh. It's one thing to say we need to keep the troops in Iraq indefinitely because it's somehow central to maintaining our national security. But it's another thing entirely to suggest that bringing them home is "not too important."

Yet that's what John McCain appeared to do on The Today Show this morning...

Asked whether McCain could give us a good estimate when the troops might come home, McCain said:

"No, but that's not too important. What's important is the casualties in Iraq."

McCain went on to say that we have troops stationed at multiple other places around the globe. So, clearly, his point here is that the central question is not when they can be brought home, but when they can be moved out of harm's way.

Still, this is an awfully clumsy and inartful way to put it, and strikes us as a pretty serious gaffe. After all, one would imagine that the question of timing might have a bit of significance for the troops themselves and their families.

Late Update: Harry Reid hits McCain over the comment.

Late Late Update: The McCain campaign is arguing that he wasn't saying that the act of bringing the troops home is not too important; merely that the timing is.

That seems like a distinction that isn't terribly meaningful, but nonetheless one worth noting, because it's true that McCain was answering a question about the timing. More from the McCain campaign here.

For those who favor the idea of Jim Webb as Veep, a bit of a complication has arisen:

Webb is no mere student of the Civil War era. He's an author, too, and he's left a trail of writings and statements about one of the rawest and most sensitive topics in American history.

He has suggested many times that while the Confederacy is a symbol to many of the racist legacy of slavery and segregation, for others it simply reflects Southern pride...

Webb, a descendant of Confederate officers, also voiced sympathy for the notion of state sovereignty as it was understood in the early 1860s, and seemed to suggest that states were justified in trying to secede.

Many of you have written in to say that a southerner on the second-slot of the ticket with an African American would make for powerful symbolism. But the above writings -- not to mention other past ones concerning women -- will raise the question of whether his presence risks dampening enthusiasm among core Dem constituencies.

The whole thing on Webb's Civil War views is here.

This is a bit suggestive: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Obama has rapidly pulled even among white voters with McCain in New York in the wake of Hillary's withdrawal from the race, and is now swamping McCain among overall New Yorkers by a double digit margin, 50%-36%.

New York is obviously among the bluest of blue states. But in an April Q-poll, Obama was losing to McCain among whites by 10 points (48%-38%). Now he has 42% of whites to McCain's 43%. That's not bad movement -- and Obama's movement among whites will of course be a key metric to watch.

The poll -- which surveyed 1,388 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points --- also found that more New York voters say Hillary should not be made Veep (48%-42%). But a majority of New York Dems favor the idea (53%-35%).

John McCain is already pushing to consolidate support among Cubans in Florida, running a new Spanish-language radio ad attacking Barack Obama, without directly naming him, for wanting to negotiate with the Raul Castro regime:

"While some support a dialogue with Raul Castro, John McCain believes we should support the courageous men and women who continue to stand up for freedom in Cuba," says former Cuban political prisoner Roberto Martin Perez. "Rather than resume relations with Raul Castro, John McCain wants first and foremost for all political prisoners to be released."

The full English translation is available after the jump.

Read more »

In a piece of bad news for Democrats and humorists everywhere, it turns out there won't be a contest in the New York 13th District between a Republican candidate and his own son running as a Libertarian, with Libertarians passing over musician Francis "Fran" Powers Jr. for the nomination to go up against likely GOP nominee Francis "Frank" Powers, Sr.

This seat wasn't on anybody radar until a few weeks ago, when incumbent Republican Vito Fossella was forced into retirement by a series of personal scandals. The Libertarian candidacy by Powers Jr., who had said it was his goal to keep his father from getting elected and furthering Republican policies, would have certainly attracted some attention and possibly benefitted the likely Democratic nominee, New York City Councillor Mike McMahon.

Democrats just got some good news in the Oregon Senate race, with an independent candidate who might have siphoned votes from the Democratic nominee now deciding to drop out of the race, leaving the Dem free to focus all his energy on taking out vulnerable incumbent Gordon Smith.

The liberal candidacy by John Frohnmayer, a former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts, might have eaten into support for Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley, who has narrowly trailed Smith in the most recent polls. With the race whittled down to two candidates now in a state that is likely to be carried by Barack Obama, the Dems' chances are now helped by them not having to worry about a third-party spoiler affecting the outcome.

Now that Joe Lieberman has emerged as John McCain's lead attack dog against Barack Obama -- even going so far as to suggest that Obama's judgment could pose a danger to our safety -- there's some very interesting behind-the-scenes back-story to the Lieberman-Obama relationship that you should know about.

Specifically, a top official on Joe Lieberman's 2006 Senate reelection campaign tells me that Lieberman's staff practically begged Barack Obama to come in and endorse him at a critical moment -- requests that Obama agreed to, helping Lieberman minimize the damage from challenger Ned Lamont's recent entry into the contest.

This back-story is particularly relevant right now in light of Lieberman's harsh assaults on Obama's national security credentials.

The top Lieberman official, who was directly involved in securing Obama's help, tells me that the campaign was desperate for Obama to come to Connecticut in March of 2006, soon after Lamont entered the race.

"We needed him to strongly validate us as a candidate that liberal Democrats should not desert," the official tells me. "We went to the Obama operation with a very urgent plea for him to come out for us."

It's well known that Obama's 2006 endorsement was important. But it's not widely understood just how urgently the Lieberman people begged for Obama's help at a critical moment in Lieberman's career -- and in that light, just how much of a back-stabbing Lieberman's attacks on Obama now represent.

Read more »

We now have a second red-state Dem who is refusing to endorse Barack Obama.

Rep. Dan Boren, the sole Democrat in Oklahoma's Congressional delegation, says that he won't be publicly endorsing Obama -- though for what it's worth, he says he'll still vote Democratic this Fall.

Boren's stated reasons for not helping Obama include: Obama is "the most liberal Senator," and that "his record does not reflect working in a bipartisan fashion." And to just to top it off, "Our nominee is not my first choice."

Boren joins Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney in not endorsing Obama -- which the NRCC has answered by calling Mahoney a political coward. There's no reason to think that Boren would be spared similar treatment.

John McCain is standing firm on his controversial platform -- of golf gear for all!

As you may have heard, the McCain camp was subjected to blogospheric ridicule last week over their Web site's tab layout, which for some strange reason included "Golf Gear" alongside headings like "Decision Center" and "Obama & Iraq."

The McCain camp has now revised their site. But did they get rid of the "Golf Gear"? Nope. In this case, it turned out "Obama & Iraq" was the dead wood:

Here's a bit of a glimpse into what sort of potential candidate Obama's vice-presidential vetting team has been asking about on Capitol Hill...

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's vice presidential vetting team discussed roughly 20 names with a senior Senate Democrat Tuesday, including some well-known options and others that are "outside the box."

Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota told CNN that some of those on the list are "top officials now," others are "former lawmakers" and others are "former top military leaders."

"Former top military leaders"? Another report says that one such military type talked about was Retired General James Jones, the former Marine and NATO Supreme Allied Commander.

Still, more than one former military leader was apparently discussed.

Wes Clark, anyone?

Late Update: To be clear, I'm skeptical of Clark as a choice, but it seems logical that he'd be one of the "former military leaders" discussed. Anyone have any thoughts as to what other ones might have come up?

As recently as one week ago, Hillary was still being widely depicted as a Lady Macbethian figure, a kind of she-demon who was still potentially scheming to take the race to the convention, thus destroying the Democratic Party in service of her insatiable ambition. She was still plotting to employ the "nuclear option," as some pundits with rather lurid imaginations put it.

Well, here we are a week later, and it turns out that Hillary is making private calls to her pledged delegates, asking them to vote for Obama at the convention, and urging them to work as hard for Obama as they did for her. This comes after her speech full-throatedly endorsing Obama that pleased many in the Illinois Senator's camp.

I wonder if Frank Rich, Maureen Dowd and Bob Herbert -- all of whom wrote reams of hallucinogenic commentary about Hillary's dark motives during the primary -- will ever find a positive word to say about this or about any future work Hillary does on Obama's behalf.

Late Update: Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post, who was one of Hillary's toughest critics, has now done what his three colleagues above haven't -- he's written a column today hailing Hillary's "gracious" exit from the race, which he says "couldn't have been classier."

My point here is not to airbrush away past tactics of hers that were questionable. It's simply to wonder whether those who attacked her for months on end will have something to say about it now that she has not fulfilled the cartoonish expectations they set.

Here's an episode that illustrates rather neatly that down-ticket Dems are really wasting their time if they're trying to avoid getting attacked by the GOP in their campaigns by distancing themselves from the Democratic Presidential nominee.

As we noted below, Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney yesterday told the Palm Beach Post that he wasn't prepared to endorse Barack Obama, claiming that he wanted to be able to preserve the ability to lobby John McCain on behalf of his district.

And right on cue, the GOP committee responsible for winning House races is already out with a release attacking Mahoney for not endorsing Obama. "Despite his politically motivated efforts to run away from the Democratic presidential nominee, Tim Mahoney seems to be reading off the same song sheet when it comes to massive tax hikes, government-run healthcare and defending our homeland," NRCC Spokesman Ken Spain said.

See, now Mahoney is taking a double hit from the GOP: He's getting tarred by having a record similar to Obama while simultaneously getting slammed for trying to paper over this fact out of political cowardice.

Given that Dems in deep-red states like Mississippi and Louisiana have won House elections even while getting tarred by their association with Obama, it's unclear what sort of percentage there is in Mahoney's approach.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe sends an email to supporters promising an unprecedented national operation in the general election:

People like you have been the heart of Chairman Howard Dean's 50-state strategy to rebuild our party and empower Democrats to compete everywhere. We've all seen the energy and enthusiasm at the grassroots level impact races up and down the ballot over the last three years.

I am proud to announce that our presidential campaign will be the first in a generation to deploy and maintain staff in every single state...

Of course, some states will be more competitive than others, and we will scale our resources accordingly.

To some degree the promise of a 50-state strategy in a presidential campaign is a bit of a platitude, since as Plouffe himself suggests, the real clue to the Obama camp's view of the electoral map will be which states get real money invested in them.

But as Ben Smith notes, this is a powerful symbolic move that Obama can well afford. And it puts the Obama team solidly in sync with the DNC as remade by Dean. While some folks scoffed at Dean's efforts, there's no denying that they may have enabled recent Dem victories in red states like Mississippi and Lousiana.

So whatever the impact of Obama's 50-state strategy on the presidential race, anyone scoffing at the Obama camp's insistence that his grassroots organization in red states will lift down-ticket Dems -- and hence is good for Dems overall -- does so at his or her peril. Full Plouffe email after the jump.

Read more »

We've been keeping you abreast of the ongoing behind-the-scenes battle between Barack Obama and Joe Lieberman, who is fast emerging as the front man for John McCain's attacks on Obama as unfit to defend the country, and now there have been some key new developments.

Specifically, the Lieberman camp is hitting back at suggestions from the Obama camp that the Connecticut Senator has crossed the line in his assaults on his Illinois colleague.

As noted here the other day, Newsweek recently reported that Obama took Lieberman aside on the Senate floor and, according to an Obama adviser, rebuked him for his half-hearted denials of the bogus Obama-is-a-Muslim rumors. But now a Lieberman spokesperson is denying that version of events, saying it was "entirely false and fabricated."

Meanwhile, a nameless Lieberman aide told Mark Halperin the following:

"If the Obama campaign thinks they are going to intimidate Joe Lieberman with these sleazy tactics then they are sorely mistaken."

The "sleazy tactics" in question appear to be the Obama camp's leaking of details of their conversation. That the Lieberman camp is calling the Democratic nominee's campaign "sleazy" while Lieberman continues to hold plum committee seats in the majority is obviously untenable, though it remains to be seen whether anything can really be done about it in the short term.

If Obama advisers were upset with the Clintons' conduct during the primary -- especially that of Bill Clinton -- it's not getting in the way of a larger reality: They know they'll need party unity for the general election, and are hoping to have as much help as possible from them.

Barack Obama's top strategist David Axelrod told Fox News that he expects to see Hillary Clinton hitting the trail for Obama. "We hope so," said Axelrod. "We expect so, based on what she said publicly. But this has been an unbelievably grueling process and she deserves some time to chill out."

As for Bill: "Bill Clinton was very successful, and is a very smart guy, so I think beyond the campaigning elements of it, you know he's somebody who I think Obama would want to have a relationship with. He's got a storehouse of knowledge that very few people have."

Barack Obama's efforts to recruit top donors for Hillary Clinton and to unite the Dem donor base may take a while to be fully realized, the Washington Post reports, for a very simple reason: A lot of her donors are simply burnt out at this point.

"There is no question that the predominant feeling is, 'We have to do what's necessary to win in November,'" said Philadelphia lawyer Alan Kessler, a former Hillary fundraiser who is sitting out a big-money fundraising dinner with Obama this Friday. "But it's just, we're tired. We just need some downtime to figure this all out."

Along with all the other historic firsts in this campaign cycle, Hillary Clinton may have just set another new milestone in her campaign: The largest presidential campaign debt in history. The New York Times notes this morning that Hillary's large debts, including $9.5 million in unpaid bills to vendors, could dog her for years with only a limited legal range of options on how to deal with it.

For example, any renegotiated debts would have have to be approved by the FEC, after having ensured that a good-faith effort was made to pay it off. And Hillary could end up spending a long time raising cash expressly for the purposes of paying off old bills, not financing a current or future campaign.

John McCain will be opening up a new line of attack against Barack Obama this morning, calling him a tax-hiker in a speech to the National Small Business Summit in Washington.

"Under Senator Obama's tax plan, Americans of every background would see their taxes rise - seniors, parents, small business owners, and just about everyone who has even a modest investment in the market," McCain will say, according to pre-released excerpts.

"He proposes to eliminate the Social Security earnings cap, and thereby to increase the tax on employers. He proposes to eliminate the secret ballot for union votes, and to raise the minimum wage and then index it, which is a sure way to add to your costs and to slow the creation of new jobs. You work hard in small businesses to grow and to create new jobs and opportunities for others -- and the federal government shouldn't make your work any harder."

It's surprising that it took this long, but McCain has finally gotten around to comparing Obama with Jimmy Carter:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In an interview with Carl Cameron today, Sen. McCain introduced some new pushback to Sen. Obama's assertion that the GOPer represents a Bush third term. The presumptive Republican nominee instead argues that the Illinois Democrat is promoting policies that would mean a second term for President Carter.

"You know one of his favorite phrases is that I would be a Bush third term. Well I think maybe his proposals could be Carter second term," McCain told Fox.

It's another indication of the massive generational gap between the candidates. This is obviously an effort by the McCain camp to sow doubts about Obama among Jewish voters, but really, does anyone imagine that this comparison carries real emotional import for voters now?

Also, this is clearly an effort by McCain to keep up the attacks on Obama's willingness to meet with hostile foreign leaders, but it's worth noting that Obama criticized Carter's decision to meet with Hamas.

Either way, expect more evocations of Carter. Lots more.

In the latest salvo in the battle for the reformer mantle in the general election, John McCain personally took a shot at Obama over reports today that one of the members of his Veep selection committee, Jim Johnson, got a special loan that could complicate efforts to speak to public anxiety about the subprime mortgage crisis.

Take a look at the video of McCain hitting Obama over this in an interview with Fox, and it's immediately striking just how half-hearted McCain's attack is. If you were one of McCain's handlers, would you be happy that the toughest line McCain could muster was...

"I think it suggests a bit of a contradiction talking about how his campaign is going to be not associated with people like that."

"Clearly he is very much associated with that," McCain said.

Obviously the McCain team is hoping to use this story to shift attention from the headlines about his own multiple lobbyists-turned-campaign-advisers. The Obama camp put out talking points -- first obtained by The Page -- dismissing the tale as "overblown and irrelevant."

The story certainly didn't appear to slow down Johnson's Veep vetting. He met with Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and other members of Congress on the Hill today.

In a year where they're expected to pick up a bunch of Senate seats, Democrats might just have a tough seat to defend in a blue state, a new Rasmussen poll in New Jersey finds.

The poll has incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who just won his Democratic primary against challenger Rob Andrews, in a statistical tie with GOP nominee Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman. Lautenberg gets 45% to Zimmer's 44%, within the ±4% margin of error.

On the other hand, New Jersey has a long tradition of close poll numbers between two candidates, with voters disliking both choices but ultimately breaking for the Dem. That pattern held true in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the 2006 Senate race, with Democrats winning both by decent margins.

That said, this one might be worth keeping an eye on.

Barack Obama is now enjoying a bump in his poll numbers since he sewed up the Democratic nomination, moving from a tie with John McCain a week ago to six-point leads in the two major tracking polls.

Here are the latest number, compared to the results that were released on June 3:

Gallup
Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-4)

Margin of error: ±2%

Rasmussen
Obama 50% (+4)
McCain 44% (-2)

Margin of error: ±4%

The question, then, is whether Obama will be able to sustain this bump, or if John McCain will be able to even things out when the initial coverage of Obama's Democratic victory wears off.

Although the national GOP efforts to negatively associate down-ticket Democrats with Barack Obama failed in the recent special elections, it appears to have paid off in one respect: We now have a red-district Democrat backing away from from Obama's candidacy.

Freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida told the Palm Beach Post that he's remaining officially uncommitted for now, and wants the opportunity to lobby John McCain on key local issues.

"I'm a Democrat," Mahoney said. "But am I going to have a pep rally or something like that? No, I'm not going to do that."

If Obama is going to win Florida, he'll need to have local Dems being a lot more energized and active on his behalf than this guy. But his reluctance seems odd, given that Dems in much deeper-red Mississippi and Louisiana won special elections even after being "tarred" by their association with Obama.

The Huffington Post gets a bit of detail on the behind-the-scenes negotiations that are taking shape between the Hillary and Obama camps -- who's doing the talking for the Hillary team, and what they want...

Three Clinton negotiators -- all confidantes of the Senator and her husband -- have been dispatched to Chicago to spearhead this effort, a source told The Huffington Post. Bob Barnett, a powerhouse Washington lawyer, Cheryl Mills, another lawyer, and Minyon Moore, a political consultant, were meeting today to discuss three key areas of negotiations: what role Hillary Clinton will play at the Democratic convention in August, the nature of her involvement in Obama's general election campaign, and the Obama campaign's plans to help alleviate her campaign debt, which is believed to be around $30 million.

A number of you will argue that Hillary doesn't have any leverage, but that is, in a way, beside the point: The Obama campaign is well aware that the McCain campaign is already making an aggressive pitch for Hillary's supporters, and will be hoping to use her strategically to parry those efforts.

With regard to any role she may play at the convention, some pundits have speculated that Hillary may be granted a kind of Hillary Day during the convention, just as we had a kind of Bill Clinton Day during the 2004 festivities. No word on whether Bill will also ask for his own day in Denver...

Barack Obama just wrapped up his speech in Raleigh kicking off his "change that works for you economy tour," and with the economy at the top of the list of voter concerns, the stakes couldn't be higher.

As Mark Halperin notes, Obama went to extraordinary lengths to tie McCain to Bush on multiple economic issues. Indeed, in Obama's speech I count no less than 15 mentions of Bush.

The speech -- which lays out an additional stimulus package of $50 billion and tax cuts for families making less than $150,000 a year -- also offers a glimpse on how Obama intends to tie McCain to Bush on domestic issues...

John McCain is an American hero whose military service we honor. He can also legitimately tout moments of independence from his party, and on some issues, such as earmark reform and climate change, he and I share goals, even if we may differ on how to get there.

But when it comes to the economy, John McCain and I have a fundamentally different vision of where to take the country. Because for all his talk of independence, the centerpiece of his economic plan amounts to a full-throated endorsement of George Bush's policies.

Obama is conceding that McCain has "moments of independence from his party" as a way, ultimately, of dealing with his primary political challenge: The fact that the national media has been searing the idea that McCain is a maverick into the consciousness of the electorate for 15 years now.

Giving a bit of ground on this question -- before bringing the hammer down on all the ways McCain would represent a continuation of Bush's policies -- is probably the best way to neutralize, in advance, the McCain camp's efforts to achieve separation from the soon-to-be-former President. The idea is to lead voters through what they've heard about McCain's supposed independence to a real understanding of what electing him will actually mean to them on their most pressing issues.

Obama's full speech after the jump.

Read more »

In a further sign that Republican hopes are fading badly, the head of the Senate GOP's campaign committee has set a new goal for the party this Fall: Not to lose too many Senate seats.

NRSC chair John Ensign has moved the goal posts, according to the Savannah Morning News, saying that the GOP will have succeeded if they don't lose more than eight seats.

Ensign pointed out that if the Dems win nine seats they'll get to the filibuster-proof magic number of 60 -- at which point, Ensign warned, "they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."

So if the Dems can't get to a 60-seat super-majority, the GOP will have won. Talk about lowering the bar.

Obama's speech in Raleigh launching his economy tour is underway, and towards the end, during a discussion of health care, he drops a surprise aside that wasn't in the speech's prepared remarks:

"By the way, I'm going to be partnering with Elizabeth Edwards, we're going to be figuring all this out."

More on this when we can establish the details.

Late Update: The key political context here, of course, is that back in April, Elizabeth revealed that Obama's health care plan wasn't her favorite. Enlisting her as a public voice on health care could obviously help with the Obama camp's outreach to women and help win over skeptics in general.

Late Late Update: For an idea of just how effective Elizabeth Edwards might be as a surrogate on health care for Obama and against McCain, take a look at this take-down by Elizabeth of McCain's plan.

Now that the Dem primary is officially over, it's safe for the Obama campaign to let economics adviser Austan Goolsbee (remember NAFTA-gate?) start publicly making the case for Obama's economic policies.

And so, today on a conference call today with reporters, Goolsbee was front and center as a chief surrogate for Obama, who's battling it out with John McCain today over their competing economic plans.

Obama launches his economic change tour today in Raleigh, North Carolina, at a time when polls show anxiety about the economy toping the list of voter concerns.

Goolsbee was asked an overarching political question: How would Obama successfully avoid the "tax and spend liberal" moniker that the GOP has been so successful at branding on the fleshy posteriors of Democratic Presidential Candidates Past?

"The American people are a bit smarter than that," Goolsbee replied, somewhat optimistically. "If anyone just looks at what Obama is proposing, that's simply not true." Goolsbee pointed out that Obama is proposing tax relief for 95% of American working families while McCain is proposing over $6 billion in tax cuts that will primarily benefit the wealthy.

Goolsbee lives!

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is set to give a private presentation on the general election to a group of top Hillary fundraisers, in a session that is being described as an effort to bring the Clinton campaign's big-money people aboard, according to a top Obama fundraiser involved in the event and another person who was invited.

Obama's finance team has asked the Illinois Senator's major donors to contact leading Hillary money people they have relationships with and invite them to attend, this fundraiser tells me. "It's an effort by the Obama campaign to reach out to Hillary's major supporters to ask them for their help and to be involved in the general election campaign," he says.

The session, which is set for this Thursday afternoon in a midtown Manhattan law office, is the first formal effort to woo Hillary's top financial supporters, and sheds some light on how the Obama team plans to go about the delicate task of winning them over.

Read more »

We're now hearing around three dozen Hillary supporters a day make the case for her as Veep, but it's pretty seldom that you hear a prominent Obama supporter like the Reverend Jesse Jackson doing the same:

"While clearly the choice of a running mate is his and that right should be honored, I thought she made a powerful case for her eligibility," Jackson said in a phone interview with The Associated Press.

"As he surveys the field, it must be someone who is compatible with him philosophically, someone who is loyal to his agenda and someone who brings a constituency that matters and the capacity to become the next president, as the Constitution requires should disaster strike," Jackson said.

Clinton meets those requirements, Jackson said. "She may not be the only one who does, but she certainly does," he said.

This stops short of an outright call to make her Veep, so it isn't really that difficult or risky a thing for Jackson to say, but his effusiveness is noteworthy.

Indeed, as noted here before, the tell will be whether Obama supporters start making such a case in significant numbers. It seems unlikely, now that Obama and his advisers have clearly signaled that they don't want to be pushed in this -- or any -- direction as they try to decide who to pick.

I'd missed this over the weekend, but it would be remiss not to flag it. The Obama camp posted a pretty unusual vid over the weekend of Obama himself thanking his staff on Friday at campaign headquarters in Chicago...

General election candidates Barack Obama and John McCain quietly aired TV spots hailing the nation's armed forces during last night's season premiere of "Army Wives" on the Lifetime Channel.

McCain's was a bit odd -- he described troops abroad and veterans as "the best Americans"...

...and here's Obama's spot...

It's worth noting that the backdrop in McCain's spot directed people to his campaign Web site, while Obama only had an American flag and his "change" slogan behind him.

Newsweek gets some detail on what Obama told Joe Lieberman in that confrontation on the Senate floor last week...

In a brief but animated Senate floor confrontation last week, according to a campaign aide who asked for anonymity when talking about private discussions, Obama told Lieberman he was surprised by Lieberman's personal attacks and his half-hearted denials of the false rumors that Obama is a Muslim.

There's also this:

McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker says Lieberman "played a key role in reaching out to the Jewish community in the primary ... and you can expect that will continue."

Translation: Lieberman will continue cranking out the slime from now until Election Day 2008, and perhaps beyond, though at that point he may well be doing it from the minority side of the aisle...

Democrats could be in for a major Senate win in the GOP stronghold of Alaska, a new poll finds.

The survey by local firm Hellenthal and Associates finds Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading longtime incumbent Republican Ted Stevens by a margin of 51%-44%, thanks in large measure to the ethics investigations that have dogged the incumbent.

Democrats haven't won a federal election in Alaska since 1974, so a win here would definitely be a really big deal.

Meanwhile, the poll also shows Rep. Don Young (R) narrowly trailing his primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, by 37%-34%. The data shows that Young would likely lose the general election by a 58%-38% landslide against likely Dem nominee Ethan Berkowitz, while Parnell edges out Berkowitz 43%-38% in a trial heat.

Mark Penn has an interesting confession of sorts, buried towards the end of his post-game analysis of why the Clinton campaign lost: The campaign should have done a better job at contesting the caucuses.

"We should have taken on Mr. Obama more directly and much earlier, and we needed a different kind of operation to win caucuses and to retain the support of superdelegates," Penn writes.

Penn adds shortly afterward: "Given her successes in high-turnout primary elections and defeats in low-turnout caucuses, that simple fact may just have had a lot more to do with who won than anyone imagines."

With the Democratic nomination race now truly over, Barack Obama's campaign is transitioning into a full general-election mode -- including some key staff hires from the Hillary camp.

For one thing, the Obama camp is recruiting Aaron Pickrell, the top political strategist for Hillary-backing Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, to run the campaign in that crucial state. The Obama team has also been considering hiring Patti Solis Doyle, the former campaign manager for Hillary, to serve in some capacity.

In addition, Obama's expected financial advantage over John McCain will give him an opportunity not too many Democrats get: To truly expand the playing field and force McCain to compete in usually-reliable GOP states like Alaska, North Carolina and Mississippi.