Nevermind. Looks like results will start to come in around noon. Should have looked again first.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20080503-134380/Tiny-Guam-has-its-say-on-US-presidential-outcome

Reptilian response.

It seems to me that Obama should pull a Hillary and start lowering expectations for NC, as Hillary did in PA when it appeared Obama was in striking distance. Hillary has shown an uncanny ability of controlling the media narrative regarding expectations. Obama always seems rather behind the eight ball on that one.

I think Obama will pull off an 8-9 point victory in NC. The question is will he win IN? Does the Zogby poll indicate late momentum in IN?

So let's say, for arguments sake, that Obama wins NC by

Besides, she has blowout wins in KY and WV to look forward to.

Not that they'll make a real difference, but she'll spin them for all they're worth.

Yes she will. Please remember though how she has demeaned those red states that Obama won which will never swing blue in the general. That argument will be shelved temporarily while she basks in "red" state victory. Har-de-har-har.

I sure hope so. Early voting results look very promising. I've got a feeling that Obama is going to have a little mini-surge in both NC and IN. I called PA a 9 point win for HRC, so my predicto-meter has been accurate lately. I say Obama by 12 in NC and Clinton by 4 in IN. And then on to the next primaries.

It's very strange that Obama is ticking up in Indiana. Usually the weekend before a primary, the undecideds start breaking for Clinton. Hmmm, what's going on here ?

It is strange, and I'm not sure I believe it. This is Zogby afterall, but he does seem to have tweaked his methodology since just before PA, so who the heck knows. I will wait to see tomorrow's Zogby to see if the trend continues before reading too much into it.

No worries, there are a huge amount of undecideds in most of these polls but unlike PA, this is really Obama country and most of those will go for him. HRC hasn't been able to get much above 40 - between that and the early voting it will still be a double digit win for BO. The change from yesteday is just noise. Yesterday was probably a bit high for the way things are polling.

After the week/month that Obama has had, as long as he doesn't lose NC, expect a lot of supers to come out of the woodwork as it would demonstrate that Wright etc. is an injury and not a fatal blow. That and HRC's gas pandering is really pissing the supers off.

Just for the record the crosstabs show Obama 73%-10% among AA.
In other words a huge part of the undecideds is AA which is obviously good for him in the end. No way his support stays that low.
And they count AA for 33% of the sample. Early voters were close to 40% AA.

Keep that in mind when you watch the numbers.
The trends are interesting though.

If Obama wins NC by only 1 (or loses), I will eat my "Obama '08" hat. Hillary Clinton's perfect storm would hold Obama's margin with white voters to 35%, with black voters to 85%, and depress black turnout to 35% of the total.

Do the math, and Obama's worst case number is 52.5%, and that doesn't take into account Obama's rumored huge lead in heavy early voting (SUSA pegged at 57-39).

Another hidden nugget about the NC Dem electorate. Black registration is HUGE, but historically black turnout has not matched the registration ratio. If you believe that having a viable black Presidential candidate on the ballot won't change that, then I have a bridge to sell you. But historical models will underpredict the black vote, and I'd wager that every poll is doing just that.

Some of the polls' internals are also showing a vast majority of the undecideds being black. I would imagine that Team Obama feels damned good about how they will break, don't you?

After the week/month that Obama has had, as long as he doesn't lose NC, expect a lot of supers to come out of the woodwork as it would demonstrate that Wright etc. is an injury and not a fatal blow. That and HRC's gas pandering is really pissing the supers off.

I think the "Wright" controversy, happening now versus the general election, will help Obama in the long-term. I sense that people are already sick of the issue, and those that are reveling in it wouldn't be caught dead voting for Obama anyway.

Obama took a big hit, but I think he's handled it well. The question is whether the MSM moves on or fixates on it. I was shocked last night to see MSNBC's Dan Abrams devote his full show to the Wright issue. I didn't see such retrospectives over Hillary's lies about her bravery under sniper fire. Nor did I find her PA debate admission that she was knowingly perpetuating stories she knew to be false looped ad nauseum on the cable news show. The MSM dutifully moved on. Time for the MSM to move on as well.

One more thought - perhaps the undecideds will break differently this time because of WHY folks may be undecided. It's very possible that the non-stop Wright nonsense knocked some soft/medium Obama supporters into the undecided category. I expect almost all of those folks to come back into the fold. Hopefully, it's enough to get Obama to at least 47% in Indiana.

And I'll keep repeating myself - don't spend one second worrying about NC. He's going to dominate here.

I think that even if Clinton wins Indiana (by like 2-6), if she loses NC by more than 8-10, she will see a surge of supers go to Obama (while possibly picking up some herself). Not only that, she will probabaly have to deal with some pretty high profile defections from her camp (fundraisers, supers, etc.).

Well Mark, it apparently was perpetuated by a pro-Obama supporter. I'm just waiting for Hillary's "dirty" trick. You know, the one she pulls in the eleventh hour before a particularly important primary.

Insider Advantage Poll (not posted by Eric):

Obama went from +15 just over 2 weeks ago, sliding all the way down to Clinton +2 during the recent Wright carp. Now he's back to +5:

05/01 611 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0 04/29 571 LV 42 44 Clinton +2.0 04/14 541 LV 51 36 Obama +15.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/INS_ADV_NC%20Dem%20tables%20May%202.pdf

Why didn't you post this poll Eric? You added it to the list on the side, but not as a post.

The Page is reporting that Obama is giving a major speech on "Assisting Working Families" in Indianapolis today at 12:45PM ET.

Ah, the timing is perfect...

http://thepage.time.com/

Obama '08!

Something is happening in our fair city of South Bend IN. People are early voting in droves, three times the rates in previous elections.

The Obama organization has been very active here and it shows.

Read this account from the local CBS station

http://www.wsbt.com/news/local/18498419.html

Zogby is hogwash. when his first day of daily polling came out with NC +16 for Obama and Indiana tied, I pointed out that both were outliers and that he'd show movement towards Clinton in the following days and then breathlessly report it as a trend. Zogby was all over the place in the final days in PA - one day it was Obama +2 and the next day Clinton +16 and he got excited about the movement. The next day was Clinton +4 (he was reporting two day numbers, but giving away daily numbers as well). I don't trust his Indiana number now. I suspect the true numbers are that each candidate currently has a 7% point lead in their stronger state. I'm just waiting to see what Clinton will be pulling out of the bag at the last minute. I sure hope it's not an Edwards endorsement.

From "Head of State"

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/05/top-10-inducements-to-vote-for-hillary.html

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Top 10 Inducements to Vote For Hillary (For Letterman)

The Chicago Tribune's blog "The Swamp" has called for suggestions for the "Top 10"list for Hillary Clinton's upcoming Letterman appearance.

Happy to oblige:

Top 10 Inducements From the Clinton Camp To Vote for Hillary

10. All future Hoosiers teams can draft players from the NBA

9. Superdelegates will get actual Spandex costumes along with Super Power of choice

8. Permanent liquor tax holiday

7. Will limit husband to "low traffic" zones of White House

6. Promises to use only one personality throughout first 100 days of Presidency

5. Will hold Inaugural Ball in Smiley's Pub, Allentown, PA.

4. Free rides on Mark Penn

3. Will provide personal armed one-woman security detail through any combat zone

2. New shampoo: No More Tears

And the number 1 inducement to vote for Hillary Clinton:

1: New National Bird: Barbeque.

Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/05/top-10-inducements-to-vote-for-hillary.html

6. Promises to use only one personality throughout first 100 days of Presidency

roflmao

I'll tell you one group of people who would prefer a Hillary presidency from the standpoint of their careers - comedians.

They're going to have a much harder time making fun of Obama.

But they'll manage, I predict.

-everything voters do from here on out will be ignored by the superdelegates---whose job it is is to choose a DEMOCRAT.

The SDs will "ignore the voters" from now on? What?

I cannot understand this comment - where are you coming from?

HILLARY has cut obama's lead in Guam to 26?

The SDs will "ignore the voters" from now on? What?

I cannot understand this comment - where are you coming from?

They really hate what she did with the gasoline holiday pandering. Even if it works and gets her a few votes, any impression more votes for her in Indiana and NC will be trumped by the stupidity of what Hillary did in taking cynical pandering up another level. It affected a lot of them.

obama is already assured of the lead in delegates and votes---even if Hillary gets 70 percent from here on in---it will not be enough. She has really pissed off the one group who still gave her some pretense of a chance.

Obama chants on Hillary sppech in NC. The audio is crappy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqcJOfelTsc

Of course in northwest Indiana it might as well be Chicago.

Busloads of Michigan people are headed down to go door-to-door today. I'd be with them, but I gotta work.

The Clintons must be very proud to have the undying support of Gotalife, the Racist Scumbag Aryan Nation Troll(ANT)

Here is what that pet sewer rat of the Grand Wizard wrote yesterday.
=============================================

Among the many allegations in the chain email is one about Obama’s name: “By the way. His true name is Barak Hussein Muhammed Obama. Won’t that sound sweet to our enemies as they swear him in on the Koran!” That's blatantly not true, as far as we know. But the campaign still won't release his birth certificate which
perhaps is adding fuel to the rumor."

Uh oh.

Posted by gotalife
May 2, 2008 6:19 PM

Ok it's offical... I will no longer respond to or try to engage any sort of discussion with gotalife. That was your chance to prove that you were truly a thinking Democrat. I now know you are a McCain troll mixing up the shit. Your posts are dead to me.

NC Obama by 12
In Obama by 2

"Sen. Edward M. Kennedy admitted yesterday that Barack Obama is running out of time to sew up the Democratic presidential nomination but remains “hopeful” the Illinois senator will overcome Hillary Clinton’s late surge."

Switch and go with your voters Senator.

Kerry too.

dem dave. I am not sure if i was being snarky, but we generally agree. This media hype about game changing and how hillary is going to impress the superdelegates is a lot of garbage. She could win all four(she won't, of course)--and it would not make any difference.

I gotta sharpen my snarking skills.

Clinton will win NC.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/us/politics/03campaign.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=politics&adxnnlx=1209834512-VF0cM7GU3mqvCuEm9lZBmg

May 02, 2008 9:59 PM

ABC News' Eloise Harper and Sunlen Miller reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., had to endure cheers for Sen. Barack Obama and boos for the North Carolina governor, who has backed her, at the North Carolina Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Raleigh, N.C., Friday evening -- where both she and Obama spoke.

Toward the end of her speech, Clinton pointed out to the crowd that she thinks she is tough, saying to the crowd, “I am no shrinking violet.”

Clinton, attempting to show that there will be party unity, said, “If Sen. Obama is the nominee, you better believe I'll work my heart out for him.”

The crowd erupted into a chant for Obama, leaving Clinton speechless for a few seconds while she waited for them to finish. During her speech, Clinton also mentioned Gov. Mike Easley, who has endorsed her candidacy, and she was momentarily rendered speechless while the crowd booed him.

In his speech, Obama also preached unity, saying that after the nomination process is over, “This party will come together. If Hillary Clinton were the nominee, I would support her in a heartbeat. And I know that if I am the nominee then she will support me.”

But he again criticized Clinton over her support of a national gas tax holiday, suggesting that Clinton is not being honest with the American people about the real savings they would receive under the proposal she backs along with Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee.

"For us to suggest that 30 cents a day for three months is real relief, that that's a real energy policy, means that we are not tackling the problem that has to be tackled," Obama said. "We are offering gimmicks. When we are offering the same thing that John McCain is offering on the cheap, that means that we're not presenting a truthful response to the challenges that we face in America.”

What is with all the anti-TPM bile lately? I don't always agree with their take on things but they seem to be pretty even handed. Exaggerated on occasion (i.e landslide etc) but it seems equally done for both dems. I know the stuff they report isn't always good news to people but that doesn't make it TPM's fault.

Not saying they shouldn't be called out from time to time but I think there is a lot of shoot-the-messenger going on. JMO.

Anyway - Obamanites should feel heartened. It appears the bleeding has stopped and Obama is on his way back up. Gallup's poll today shows the race is tied again - since it is a tracking poll, it means that he is beginning to have some decent polls again. By Monday he should be back in the lead. Rasmussen still has him going down but their methodology usually takes a few more days to show movement so it will take a while longer but by Monday he should be moving back up even if it takes a bit more time to regain the lead.

More worrisome is the vs McCain poll, this is where he is really hurting - among the indies & obamacans. However that too is showing some good signs as it is the same as yesterday, meaning the bleeding has stopped there as well. It will likely take longer for that to rebound but it will.

Guam looks to be a dead heat with 20 votes separating the two now (with Obama in the slight lead).

I hope Obama isn't taking NC for granted here. A win isn't a win, just like was the case for Hillary in Penn. He needs 7+ point win in NC.

The Gas Tax issue and the Bayh memo blaming the Clinton White Hhouse for the plant closing initially should really give Obama a boost in the final days before Indiana votes.

For those who favor Obama, I wouldn't get too excited by the latest (or any) Zogby poll. I clearly recall seeing Zogby on MSNBC in April 2004, where he flatly and unequivocally predicted a Kerry win in November. Hopefully his polling methods have improved since then.

Um Agberg : Zogby called PA for Clinton by 10 points.

I also see that Obama is holding on to his lead in Guam with just one more district to hear from.

While the media loves to breakdown every demographic...old, young, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, blue collar, beer drinkers, bowlers and more....for some verrrrry interesting reason....they never mention...
HILLARY HAS LOST THE ENTIRE BLACK VOTE....POSSIBLY FOREVER !!!This is the message currently being sent by blacks to the DNC (and the superdelegates)in great numbers. There is NO WAY Hillary will defeat McCain without the support of Black America aka the guaranteed Democratic vote. Please read Huffington Posts story on how the Hillary Camp has been feeding Obama attacks TO THE GOP !!!!! What a traitor to the Democratic Party !!!!!!!! For those who didn't know, Hillary started her campaign with 82% of the black support. But as Blacks learned more about her (Goldwater Girl...possibly Against Civil Rights Act '64....It was LBJ...Not MLK....etc) combined with Bill's (...fairy tale....Jessie Won S.C. too...etc.)...blacks were shocked beyond repair. (remember....we luved Bill so much we called him 'The First Black President')....but never again....WHERE'S THAT STORY.

And if the DNC thinks.....'ohhhhhh....the blacks will be angry at first...but they'll come around'.....then they don't know the severity of what the Clinton's have done....This has nothing to do with Obama !!!! We (blacks) have awakened to the truth about the Clintons......and with more exposure like the recent Huff story re: Hill's feeding the GOP Obama smears...our friends of ALL races will awaken soon !!!!!!!!!...THAT'S THE REAL STORY !!!!

Greg Jones
www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial, Grassroots Org...Dedicated To Truth)

p.s. Blacks4Barack.org was started in Feb. 2007 (by Greg Jones) because of the fact that VERY few blacks were for Obama at that time.....they were ALL for Hillary !!!!! We knew that Obama was the best person to run our country and bring our troops home and that is why we started our grassroots organization with a mission to increase black voter registration and to invigorate support for Obama. (Not because he's black...but because he's most qualified) The more black voters learned about Obama...the more they liked him....and the more they learned about the Clintons....the angrier they got !!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are appreciative of our friends of ALL races....who are working together....for the very best candidate....to put America on the right track.....Barack Obama ! THANK YOU !