What's up with Guam? Didn't the polls close at 6 am this morning? The time difference is confusing me.

Don't worry about NC, y'all. I promise you double digits. Early voting likely means the margin goes even higher.

Easley was booed loudly at the NC Jefferson/Jackson dinner last night.

erik klondike, i thought nine was a double digit? what am i missing? ...nine point two..my bad , got it.

I've decided that I'm swearing off polls and trusting in the wisdom of the voters. Either they will make the right (in my opinion) decision and we will have Obama as our nominee or they won't. I can't get whipped up into a lather over every microtrend poll that comes out. It's not good for my health or my sanity LOL! ;)

Now, you watch if he wins NC by 9% how big a deal Clinton will make out of "shrinking his lead", which is EXACTLY what he did in Pennsylvania. I tell you, there's no justice in this primary. As my mother used to say, the rules change more often than I change my underwear (which is often, thank you very much LOL!) ;)

I hear ya Carol. I really take these things with a grain of salt. I'm convinced that Obama will be the ultimate victor. My only concern is how much damage he will take in the process. Will his negatives get raised to scary levels, etc.

I always smile when Hillary makes her electability pitch when her negatives consistently out poll her positives. Sort of reminds me of the Bush aide who remarked that they create their own reality. Magical thinking is not limited to rethuglicans it seems...

whoops sorry about that...what I wanted to say was:

Let's say that Obama wins NC by 1, and he also wins Indiana by 1.

Is the race over at that point? Or does Hillary find some way to spin that?

whoops sorry about that...what I wanted to say was:

Let's say that Obama wins NC by 1, and he also wins Indiana by 1.

Is the race over at that point? Or does Hillary find some way to spin that?

Shrivti1, Hillary is like the late Charleton Heston who once claimed that his gun would have to be peeled from his cold, dead hands. This nomination will have to be peeled from Hillary's cold, dead hands. She's in this until the convention, or until the super's spring some of Hillary's "testicular" fortitude and put her out of her misery.

In short, she will spin any outcome of NC and IN as evidence of her inevitability.

It's very strange that Obama is ticking up in Indiana. Usually the weekend before a primary, the undecideds start breaking for Clinton. Hmmm, what's going on here ?

Zogby has become so skewed that at that point, his predictions are worthless.

Survey USA has been very close if you look at their final polling numbers for the latest set of primaries.

the ref will call the foul on obama under the rim even if he slipped and fell at mid court.

Howey in Indiana has been stating that other pollsters have been reading the state wrong. Which could very well be the case. When was the last time there was a heated primary in Indiana, and when was the last time the pollsters came through? So you've got a bunch of pollsters who don't know the lay of the land very well. And my friends and family living in Indiana all suggest that there is a strong Obama vibe there. I predict that there will be some surprises - rural communities in the northern and central part of the state will vote for Obama in stronger numbers than expected, while Lake County (Gary and surrounding communities) will go for Obama but not merely as much as people are predicting. It's the one part of the state where racial tension still seems very much alive. Indy big for Obama. South Bend and Fort Wayne, I'd say could go either way. Bloomington definitely for Obama. Evansville I have no idea. I'm guessing it's Clinton territory but I would love to see Obama do well there.

Come on NC and IN. Come on let's bring this campaign to an end.

EXCELLENT analysis NC State Dem. Thanks much!

Well not that we all know what the transcript revealed in the War Room clip is, and we all know it was doctored, don't we want to get to the bottom of exactly who doctored it? I find astounding the fact checkers at TPM have this on complete media blackout? Bizarre.

Josh, Greg, Eric?

I don't know how many supporters he has here, just outside of South Bend, but there are multitudes of his signs here. We are just 20 miles from South Bend, in Goshen (population about 30,000). I haven't seen one Hillary sign.

All I can tell is that Obama has some enthusiastic supporters here in Goshen. We even have an Obama office!

Obama supporters in Goshen? That's kind of like Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Howard Dean serving in the Bush administration.

Insider Advantage Poll (not posted by Eric):

Obama went from +15 just over 2 weeks ago, sliding all the way down to Clinton +2 during the recent Wright carp. Now he's back to +5:

05/01 611 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0

04/29 571 LV 42 44 Clinton +2.0

04/14 541 LV 51 36 Obama +15.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/INS_ADV_NC%20Dem%20tables%20May%202.pdf

Why didn't you post this poll Eric? You added it to the list on the side, but not as a post.

Weren't the Israelites enslaved by the Egyptians in Goshen? ;-)

eric clayfeild, how bout it huh?

Obama seems to do well in the Midwest.

I've heard the talk about states that have a very small and very large AA population going for Obama, but I don't like the narratives being spun around it. Usually it's something along the lines of: states with mixed race populations see minorities as competition, and think more resources will go toward the "competition" if a black man is in office. Either that or straight-up racism.

I don't think I buy that.

As a midwesterner myself (Mason City, Iowa. Go Big Red!) I'd like to think that it comes from the Midwestern BS meter that went off all through my state during the caucus season. The candidates went through my town a few times while I was visiting family, so I got a chance to see them all, and people just weren't buying the BS that Hillary was trying to lay on them. Trying to act like the "common man" or whatever she does is really insulting and condescending. We're not rubes or hicks. (and as long as I'm ranting I might add that I don't think there's more racism in Iowa than in other places, just because more white people live there. I don't know why people have that idea. It bugs me.)

My point: While Indiana is NOTHING like Iowa (except we both have lots of corn), I wouldn't be surprised if Obama ends up coming out ahead.

I continue to think he needs to push how absurd her gas tax proposal is and spell it out: 300,000 lost jobs and no highway and bridge repairs versus 30 cents a day in your pocket. She is depending on the voters being stupid. That should also be pointed out. It is a real insult to the voters. This issue is a potentially huge gift if he plays it right. I think it can really harm her. But as posted above, she always comes up with some scurrilous attack right before the primary that can't be disproven until after it is over and no one is listening (Obama as anti-choice in New Hampshire, Nafta/Canada-gate in time for Texas and Ohio).

Oh...it's a ZOGBY poll. Crap.

Yeah those are usually worthless.

And here I was getting my hopes up.

The Obama/REV Wright freefall continues:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Saturday, May 03, 2008
he Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Hillary Clinton and John McCain essentially tied—Clinton attracts 45% of the vote while McCain earns 44%. At the same time, McCain leads Barack Obama 48% to 43% (see recent daily results). This has been a difficult week for Obama. When the week began, he was even with McCain and outperformed Clinton in general election match-ups.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Clinton 47% Obama 44%. That’s the third straight day that Clinton has held a slight edge over Obama (see recent Democratic Nomination results).

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. (see recent daily favorable ratings). Obama is now viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 49%. For Clinton, the reviews are 48% favorable, 50% unfavorable. Those numbers reflect the best ratings for Clinton since March 12.

Obama's negatives within 1 % of Hillary. The freefall will continue. Free Reverend Wright, we need some more wisdom from him. TALK REV!

From where the campaigns are this weekend, seems to me that they think that O has a comfortable lead in NC and that IN is in play.

Except for one stop today in NC, Bill, Hill and Obama are in IN all weekend. If HRC thought she had a shot in NC and if O thought his win was in jeopardy, they'd be there.

whoops sorry about that...what I wanted to say was:

Let's say that Obama wins NC by 1, and he also wins Indiana by 1.

Is the race over at that point? Or does Hillary find some way to spin that?

Posted by shrivti1
May 3, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink

the race ended (it has been over for a while) when Hillary endorsed mcCain's gas holiday tax. Obama can now lose in NC, and Indiana and will still be nominated---because---Hillary blew it with the superdelegates. If she had started kissing up to right wingers earlier, she might be winning. But that gas tax sealed her fate---everything voters do from here on out will be ignored by the superdelegates---whose job it is is to choose a DEMOCRAT.