If he closes strong in Indiana this thing will truly be effectly over. The flood of Supers will push him past her there and his total Delegate lead will be 200 or so and insurmountable. She will continue to WV and KY and probably even Puerto Rico, but it will not matter.

Didn't Zogby's tracking of Pennsylvania up until the day of the primary pretty much nail it with the late deciders?

God I hope Zogby is right for once.

Zogby should be doing substantially better than they originally did in predicting the outcome of the race, in that they seem to have finally gotten the hang of predicting the turnout of various communities, which is really where the swing on these polls primarily is.

They're a very reputable polling company, but part of the reason they've done poorly in this election is that they have more complex formulas that dynamically take into account the percent of turnout amongst various groups. Unfortunately, those percentages have been all over the place, as this is a very exceptional year, turnout-wise.

I think we'll see ample evidence today that Barack Obama's campaign could turn both North Carolina and Indiana purple in the upcoming national election.

North Carolina feels closer to reality - but I just don't see how SUSA and others which show a big Clinton lead in Indiana can jive with this. And I just don't trust Zogby.

Having said that, I DO sense some late momentum for Obama in Indiana (I think his personal campaigning made a difference there) and I can only imagine what it would have been like without the days of Rev. Wright distractions.

A split still sends supers Obama's way

it looks like zogby was right on pennsylvania, at the very least.

the link below will take you to pollster.com's list of all the primaries. click on any state for all its pre-election polling data.

http://www.pollster.com/08presidentialprimary.php

Zogby is good with online polling. Perhaps Obama does better because his voter base answers online surveys. HRC's base (blue collar folks/women) is perhaps not as internet savvy or doesn't take the time to answer Zogby surveys.

Just a guess.

I do like the "Zogby's Real America" show on XM's Channel 130 - POTUS 08.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again. Perhaps today is the day?

This will never be over. The Clinton camp has already filed the paperwork to seat Florida and Michigan delates to the rules commitee. They did it yesterday.

Zogby may be on to something...McCauliffe was very hesitant to make any prediction in Indiana or North Carolina on MOrning Joe, which means in Indiana its very close. They pressured him to a point where he predicted a win, but I'm not so sure.

To give Zogby some credit, they got the spread in PA about right, just a few points lower than the final results. Add in the undecideds from the last poll between the candidates and Zogby came out practically right on the money.

Though observers keep suggesting it as some sort of general phenomena that last-minute deciders trend toward Clinton, I believe many of the late shifts toward Clinton were more a matter of negative news cycles for Obama immediately before the primary date (NAFTA controversy before Ohio, "bitterness" controversy before Pennsylvania). This time it will be interesting to see if the criticism of Clinton's gas tax holiday might shift a higher proportion of the undecideds toward Obama.

What I find revealing about the leak on Drudge is that the Clinton camp anticipates a win in Indiana, but, in contrast to what they say about NC, they don't give an approximate spread. Perhaps their internals are showing a very close margin?

As an Obama supporter, I have noticed the Obama supporters here have been very quick to complain when TPM posts an outlier poll favoring Clinton. I have seen 2 polls where Clinton has closed to within 5 points in North Carolina, and not a peep. TPM cant report every poll, but the Obama supporters should be careful about putting too much stock into any one particular poll sticking out against the trend.

Rolling surveys interview a couple of hundred people a day, at most 300. The margin of error on a survey of 300 people is so high (around 6% meaning a 12 point spread is within MoE) that it really isnt reliable, even if you get the voting demographic right.

You can only go with polls with large samples to get within 3% MoE, and even then, they might get the demographics of the poll wrong. If the undecideds breaking in the last week have been white working class voters going to clinton, and the rest of your undecided are a similar demographic, that is a safer bet to take than Zogby's miracle reversal of other polls.

Sorry for long post, but dont get your hopes up guys (and girls), especially over a single outlier poll. I think the Clintons are masterfully moving the goalposts this morning to hedge their bets either way.

The only numbers I want to see at this point, is Hillary down for the count.

""The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.""

This is called expectations game posturing.

It certainly seems like the respective demographics are holding up in that NYT post from NC this morning...along with a "personal favor" done my HRC. Of course, one has to realize that Obama's demographic are more likely to be the first at poling stations...latte-drinking professional elites often have to get to work early and need their Starbucks fix. Nevertheless, let's hope this trend continues.

Carol, thanks for the links above. L.O.L.!!!! Just what I needed in the morning! I rank them up there with "The Empire Strikes Barack."

These polls drive me nuts. With the caveat that I'm not poll-savvy, RCP tends to understate how well Hillary finishes.

Regarding Mcauliffe's comments today, I've longed stopped buying anything the Clinton campaign is selling.

I made some calls to NC last night for Obama. I was pretty encouraged.

Has Zogby stopped being wrong? One would hope so, but I won't hold my breath.

As many have noted above, it's blindlingly clear the Clinton camp piped the 15% Obama "win" to Drudge. I, for one, sure am heartened that our gal Hillary finds more common ground with folks like O'Reilly, Drudge and Scaife than she does with all of them fancy eee-conomists with thar fancy Jewish names and homey-sexual pals up thar along the east coast of Amurr-ica... Hot damn, pass me so'more of them cojones, James old boy!

What? No comments about the evil biased Eric Kleefeld on this post?

There really is no way to know how accurate these polls are going to be beforehand. For state to stae they are independent, and no one knows if the turnout model in one place works for another. that and we are all drawn to the polls we want to believe in and discount those that have bad news. Just prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best. Or you can go door to door in NC and IN and try to do something about it.

Anyway, just wait a few hours you can get pretty definitive results.

In the meantime do something fun (except drive your SUV alone really fast), you'll live longer.

carol thanks for the great olberman/stewart clips.

This Zogby poll is way out of line with other polls. It just doesn't seem to make sense.

PROJECT NUCLEAR OPTION IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE 3...2...1...

In North Carolina and Indiana, BILLARY Clinton will lose and Barack Obama will win!

It's interesting the way TPM put this article next to the Insider Advantage poll. I went back to the Pennsylvania race to see which one of these polling "experts" were closer to the end results. Intersting.