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Zogby: Obama Ahead By 16 In North Carolina, Tied In Indiana
This morning's Zogby tracking poll gives Barack Obama a double-digit lead in North Carolina, his widest of any current poll:
Obama 50%
Clinton 34%Sample size: 668 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%
And Zogby also has a close race for Indiana:
Clinton 42%
Obama 42%Sample size: 680 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.8%
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You forgot to mention that Zogby is a bad pollster, and that it is ESSENTIAL for Obama to win Indiana and North Carolina by 30 points to remain viable. Your bias is slipping!
May 2, 2008 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Feel grumpy today, old man?
May 2, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Feeling spry and alive and I ain't gonna take no guff!
May 2, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
zogby has terrible this cycle but i think you should replace 'obama' with 'clinton' in that sentence.
May 2, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby has been getting better every week of the campaign - they did pretty well with OH and TX and they nailed PA. And in the parallel universe of TPM Election Central, it is Obama who must win every demographic by 30% and every state by 30% to stop the Hillmentum (apologies to idiotic).
May 2, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's become so hard to tell the difference between pretend and real Clintonian spin...
May 2, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
To quote Eric (or Greg, I can't tell them apart these days), "he must win by a landslide". Landslide my ass ... the only one who needs a landslide right now is Clinton - and even then she can't catch Obama. Hmph!
May 2, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, come on! Why can't he seal the deal? Clinton is almost about to finnish this thing off, she's gaining on being just points away from winning, she's as close to winning as losing can get, she's...
Oh, damn. The Clintonian parody is hard to pull off.
May 2, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
The candidate who is in the lead in the polls needs to win every primary by 30%? What kind of math are you using Billy?
May 2, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also forgot to splash this across the front page (ala yesterday's Clinton splashes). This was actually discussed on Kos late last night when the poll first came out, along the lines of "Wonder if TPM will put this on the front page in big letters? I won't hold my breath."
I see they were right.
May 2, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, how bad are they?
May 2, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The polls are all over the place.
If he does win big in NC and ties in Indiana, it is game, set, match for Mr. Obama.
May 2, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
But that won't keep Hillary from attempting another serve.
May 2, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
What is this tie BS. Someone is going to win. If Hillary wins by as little as one vote we will be subjected to another month of her campaign (she still will not win but we will have to listen to the whine for another month). If he wins by as little as one vote she will be chased out of the race. In either case he wins the nomination what is at stake is not who the nominee will be but how long the death throes of Her campaign last.
May 2, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sidenote inquiry:
Obama is younger, raised by a single parent, atractive and well-liked . . . rightwing and registered Democrat . . . BUT without the publicized bed-time fidelity issues found in Senator Clinton's spouse . . .
Perhaps so MUCH like a younger Bill Clinton that Hillary is attempting to punish Obama for Billy's transgression but she is haunted becuase folk like him more than her . . .
My question is:
May 2, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just hoping that like a stopped clock, which is always right twice a day, Zogby just happens to be right this time.
May 2, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Research 2000 also has him winning in NC.
Did you catch it? Did you watch the interview of Howard Dean DNC by Jon Stewart on The Daily Show last night? Howard Dean pretty much announced the Winner of the Democratic Primary – Barack Obama
At the very end of the interview, Dean says something like, “We have a chance of winning North Carolina, Virginia and South Carolina.”
Guess who WON two of those States and is about to win the third win next Tuesday? Barack Obama.
May 2, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well that and in Polls Obama is the only one close in those states and Hillary has already written off those states in the general.
May 2, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure he meant that the Democrats have a good chance of winning those states whoever the nominee is. He isn't endorsing anyone.
May 2, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
um, good luck winning virginia with Mrs. C.
May 2, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Hillary Clinton hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of winning those states.
Look, EVERYBODY knows Obama has won. It's now just about placating the big money Clinton backers. I'm betting next Tuesday will finish it. After that the SD's will get off the fence.
May 2, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm from VA. Obama can do it there- espeically with a Tim Kaine on the ticket (not Webb, although I like him too.) Hill... not in a million years. But given the rate of wins and her stamina, she may be around in a million years.
May 2, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right that he was very careful in his choice of language and didn't endorse anyone. Reading between the lines, one might infer that he thinks Obama gives Dems a better chance in the general election -- I think it's fair to say Obama will do better than Hillary in VA, NC and SC. In addition, Dean has got to see that most down ballot Dems will do better with Obama at the top of the ticket, especially in red and purple states and districts. And I'm sure he feels Obama is a better team player than Hillary, especially contrasting Obama's 50 state voter registration drive with the bullying of Hillary's thuggish donors. But Dean didn't say anything last night that Hillary folks could have a legitimate beef about.
May 2, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
so sorry, Eric. we know this has gotta hurt(hah)!
May 2, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby nailed the Pennsylvania results. Here is hoping they nail NC too!
I missed John Stewart!
But it sounds like Dean is speaking the truth. Only Obama can play in NC, SC, and Virginia. he can also play in ND, SD, UT, NV, WI, IA, and CO.
I believe that is the sweet taste of victoy I am savoring!
May 2, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go to Comedy Central -- it shows the interview of Dean
May 2, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't anyone thinks Obama (or certainly Clinton) can win Utah - unless you have some information that he might pick Harry Reid as VP thus clinching Nevada, and giving us a shot at Utah since Reid would be the first Mormon on a national ticket (assuming McSame doesn't counter with the Mittster).
May 2, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the first poll out that is exclusively post-Wright. Maybe a bit sunny but it is still a good sign in that the law of averages make a big win for HRC in IN and a loss by Obama in NC unlikely even if this poll is flawed.
On other good news for Obamanites, he is scheduled to pick up another Super and a 2nd former DNC chair in the form of Paul Kirk. According to the count on RCP that will narrow HRC's super lead to 17 and make Obama's magic # 282.
May 2, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
WE'RE BACK, BABY!!! SUMMER OF GEORGE!!!!!
May 2, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is a testament to his grit and character that Obama has survived this onslaught and bodes well for our chances in the Fall. In a way, Clinton is starting to remind me of a zombie in the Night of the LIvingDead (filmed in PA of course). Still, to be fair, the Clintinistas must be shopping around for a stake to stop Obama.
May 2, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree about the skepticism regarding Zogby, but am hoping for the best.
Does anyone else think that part of HRC's anguish stems from the fact that the only reason she stuck with Bill after so many public humiliations was so that she could become president herself one day and now that looks like it isn't going to happen? And to add to that anguish one of the biggest obstacles for her this primary season has been Bill's bizarre race-baiting. As the slogan goes stop the drama and vote for Obama!
May 2, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
As an inside the Beltway person, I can tell you that most people here take it for granted that the deal was struck many years ago that HRC would stand by her man if he would stand by her on her way to the White House. Odds are that if she doesn't pull this off, we won't be seeing the Clintons making many appearances together in the future.
May 2, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I used to write off this theory to the hysterical fringe of the Right, but now I'm not so sure. Hillary wants this thing so bad I think she'll sacrifice anything, destroy anything, or accept anything to succeed.
May 2, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another day another dozen polls.
But I'll take this one - they are none of them terribly reliable AFAIC, but when it looks good, it makes me feel better.
May 2, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary swirls down the toilet.
May 2, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby or TeleResearch?
May 2, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday on NPR Michelle Norris asked Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana about a talk radio show host's calling on republicans to vote for a particular candidate in the democratic primary. He replied, "Hey some of 'em just want to have some fun . . . Hey, indulge us just a little bit." Do the polls take into account voter mischief?
May 2, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw Howard on TDS, but I turned it off before the end of the interview -I didn't hear him finish it so I didn't hear him tip his hand about Obama.
I got ticked at Jon for going on and on and on - I wanted him to shut up and let Howard explain things.
May 2, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I've noticed the same thing about Mr. Stewart- shut up already and let the guest speak. Anyways, am I wrong or did Dean commit to seating the FL and MI delegations on TDS? Was that new news or a miscommunication between the two?
May 2, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
"the Obama campaign rolls out another former DNC chairman's endorsement on Friday: Paul Kirk, a superdelegate who led the party from 1985-1989"
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
May 2, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Demconwatch has her lead at 22 in supers counting 4 add-ons yesterday from New York. Obama is due to get 3 add-ons from IL today I believe. Demconwatch also added Kirk a few days ago, and says he actually endorsed some time ago.
In any event it's not her lead in supers that ultimately matters (although it would be nice to pass her). If they split the supers from here on out, he wins.
Not counting Kirk, and not counting add-ons (who are declared in advance and just a matter of when the state process adds them in), Demconwatch has Obama leading 12-6 in superdel pickups since the PA primary.
May 2, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice. 12-6 would mean he's cut her delegate gain from PA in half already.
May 2, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
For anyone with 15-20 minutes to spare, there is an excellent analysis of the race/gender issue and Clinton's failings in The Nation.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/betsyreed
May 2, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great article. Thanks for the link.
May 2, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm so glad there are so many people around here who can do math and tell me what's going on with the SDs cause I can't keep up.
May 2, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am the rarest of all things - a lawyer who can do math. I got an engineering degree from NC State before going to the bad place for law school. About once a month, a colleague will come to me with a math question. Also pays off playing poker with other lawyers.
Trust my math, Tena. Relax about NC (and the supers, too), and focus your anxiety on Indiana until we get more assurances from our bagpipe-playing friend.
May 2, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't want to rely on Zogby numbers, but as a local - I can assure you that you need not worry about Obama. I spoke to a NC political operative (she was mystified about Easley - said his Clinton endorsement went against everything he was supposed to be about), and she noted that black voter registration was already sky high in the past election cycle. The key is getting them to actually vote.
Believe me, they have registered in even higher numbers. They will turn out for Obama, and same-day registration for early voters also helps. All of the models are underestimating black turnout. I'm not sure they are properly accounting for Obama's huge early voting lead, either (flip side to the CA polling showing Obama narrowing the gap). Early voting has been very heavy. There is a high percentage of urban liberals, college students, and folks with advanced degrees here. Forget the "Mayberry" stereotype - that's not modern North Carolina at all.
Obama will win NC by more than Clinton's PA margin. I promise you that much. Don't be surprised if the margin is closer to VA than PA.
May 2, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
NC State Dem, that is music to my ears brother...
May 2, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heard the same thing here from some local Dems in the know. Turnout so far locally is three times as high already as it was in 2006 for early voting during the November election. Of course, there is a difference between the contests as Presidential contests bring in more voters, but it's something to think about.
May 2, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this poll is awesome.
I have noted (maybe only in my head?) a softening of Hillary Clinton. She seems quiet on Barack Obama these last few days/week. I take this as her backing away, starting the process of moving her support behind Obama.
I am often insanely politically naive, though, so grab a grain of salt to go with this assessment.
I respect and admire Hillary for this, if in fact it is what she's doing. It can't be easy to give up the chance at being the first female president.
It would be nice if the supporters could start the process, too. Time to start acknowledging Clinton's formidable political skills and looking forward to how she can help Barack Obama in the months to come. Think about it: he can be respectful and honest and eloquent, inspiring people towards his amazing vision of change...and Hillary and Bill can take out the knee caps of McCain, and anyone else who gets in his way. Perfect.
May 2, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, I think you would have seen this "softening" alot sooner without Penn and Bill constantly in her ear. I am open to Hillary redeeming herself in my eyes and remaining part of the Democratic Party going forward. Penn and Bill need to STFU permanently, and go back to counting their money.
May 2, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I'd like to quit being mad at her and move this thing forward and massacre the Republicans.
I'd love to have Hillary's help and Bill's.
May 2, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm betting next Tuesday will finish it. After that the SD's will start announcing and it will be over. At that point the party leaders will have a Come to Jesus talk with Hillary Clinton. They are just not going to allow her to start a food fight at the convention.
May 2, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that the "softening" is a reaction to displeasure among superdelegates to the nastiness of her campaign. She desperately needs them, and if she's toning things down it is probably because she now understands that she has to, to get their support.
May 2, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps losing Joe Andrews has had an effect, but I assume she will start beating the drum again as soon as Tuesday is over, if she wins Indiana by any margin. She's not a subtle or yielding person.
May 2, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
From an editorial point of view, I think it's fair to conclude that when Eric posts an article like this one, then the Obama crowd thinks that TPM is being fair and balanced. And when he posts an article about a poll showing Hillary leading, then the Obama folk think that TPM has lost all sense of fairness and has become outrageously pro-Hillary.
I don't really notice dozens of angry posts from the evil "Hillary trolls" complaining about pro-Obama bias on this article. I think that speaks volumes about the relative intellectual maturity of the two camps.
May 2, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think people object less to polls being posted and more to the verbal descriptions that accompany those polls.
And before you talk about the emotional maturity of either candidate's supporters, you might want to consider whether the objections that people post have merit.
Finally, Hillary Clinton supporters such as dembillc and matthew weaver don't demonstrate emotional maturity in any recognizable sense.
May 2, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
"...intellectual maturity..."
Says the guy with the Batman avatar. However, I do agree there seems to be too many Obama supporters going after polls that don't reflect well on Obama, yet like the polls that don't reflect well on Clinton.
But that's to be expected, right? Support your candidate's arguments...that's the whole idea behind politics, right?
I would rather people not do that, but it's not that big of a deal in my mind. To each his own, I guess.
May 2, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're still here....you're commenting on my little thingamajig on a webpage that shows Bullwinkle, a kitty, and Goofy (if I'm not mistaken). And a Steelers emblem? Gosh, I didn't know I was in such august company.
May 2, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby did the best of all, in PA, as I recall.
That being said, the polls have been very unreliable in this election so far.
Still, good news for Obama.
May 2, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is a notoriously unreliable pollster, yet he seems to have come the closest to the right number in Pennsylvania. I would say that he has been as accurate as any pollster this year.
May 2, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
We'll see what happens in Indiana when/if this story breaks big:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/93316/53926/838/507664
Mickey Kantor, longtime Clinton crony and current Hillary advisor, in 1992 calling Hoosiers "worthless white n**gers" to Carville and Stephanopolous!
May 2, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Here is Kantor's priceless comments on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj__s
May 2, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shines a light on which campaign is truly elitist.
And don't forget that Kantor is a poster child for Clintonite -- a corporate lawyer/lobbyist/shill who led the charge for NAFTA as Bill's USTR. Exactly the kind of person we don't need in the next Democratic administration.
May 2, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hard to tell if that's what he really said and who would be stupid enough to be filmed saying that...I mean, there weren't any cell phone cameras back then and was he really talking about Indiana voters?? But, if true, wow. WTH!? I must admit, I've never heard of this guy, though. What's the capacity of his involvement with the Clinton campaign?
May 2, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kantor was chairman of Bill's 1992 campaign for president -- about as important as you can get.
My guess is that this footage was obtained in shooting the movie, "The War Room," which I think is one of the best political documentaries ever filmed.
May 2, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it said that on the video, and there's no denying a close professional relationship between the Clinton's and this guy, but what is his official capacity now?
The reason I'm wondering about this is...well, first, if this is a well known documentary (I have heard of it, but never watched it), why hasn't this been brought up before? Is this truly what he said? There is no need to destroy a man for something he never said. And last, we don't need it, we've already won, this is just piling on a potentially strong ally in the Fall for something he might not have said. I admit, it sounds like it, but without the subtitles, would I have come to the same conclusion? I'm not so sure.
May 2, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turns out you're right. I take it all back.
Fucking Internet.
http://www.eschatonblog.com/2008_04_27_archive.html#1534890734398385842
May 2, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hehe, no worries. This thing is over. There's no way for her to prove he would lose in the Fall at this point, so she has to win the pledged delegate vote to get the nom. Ain't gonna happen. It's all going down on Tuesday...you'll see.
May 2, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's polls are not to be trusted. These are outliers, more favorable to Obama than other polls. What do you bet that he'll show the numbers going Hillary's way from here on and start reporting breathlessly on how Clinton is showing momentum. I don't buy it.
May 2, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Emma P - Clinton is softened on Obama after she saw the AA vote in Pennsylvania and realized that was a vote against her. She's just letting other people do her dirty work now.
May 2, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink