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Zogby Gives Obama Really Big Lead Over Clinton
A new Zogby poll gives Barack Obama a truly unreal national lead over Hillary Clinton.
The numbers: Obama 59%, Clinton 33%.
Holy outlier, Batman!
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Has Zogby been right once? I can't keep the pollsters and their records straight -
May 21, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby nailed Indiana dead on (if you subtract Hillary's Limbaugh vote)
May 21, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pennyslvania too, he was spot on.
May 21, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And MO and NC.
May 21, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Zogby should just quit. He is embarrassing himself.
May 21, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is kool aid.
But I do know, tide is turning.
I do not want, Obama, but if it is him or McWar, I will go Obama.
Dems to unite against gop.
May 21, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good sense, and a good sense of humor.
I will not presume to welcome you into the fold until Clinton exits the race.
But I do agree that anyone who believes Zogby's ridiculous poll is thinking with their kool-aid-adled stomach and not their brains.
May 21, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, you snookered me, fake gotalife. Nice job.
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know this isn't the real gotalife, don't you?
May 21, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am the real gotalife. I always have been.
I decided yetserday, to be open to new thing.
Now I am being stalked by troll, who says I am a troll.
I was a troll, not anymore. Now I am a democrat.
Stop the trolls. Pathetic.
May 21, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps Americans are finally getting the hint. Barack Obama WILL be the Democrats Nominee in August.
Too bad Hillary and her supporters refuse to face reality.
May 21, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why the hell are they still taking national polls?
May 21, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seeing as the national poll is worthless anyway, I can forgive its inaccuracy.
May 21, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, and that limousine liberal United Mine Workers Union just endorsed Obama:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/c_n_102873.html
May 21, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't they have a little pull in West Virginia?
May 21, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Kentucky?
May 21, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
latte sipping bastards
May 21, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I could recommend responses I would with this one. I loled.
May 21, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Outlier?
How do you come to that?
Yesterday, is was 55/39 with Gallup. 16 points.
This poll is 26 points. It could be right in line with today's Gallup.
I know they're different outfits, but let's see what today's Gallup is before calling Zogby's an outlier, OK?
May 21, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and the NEW Reuters poll has it O-59%,C-33%
26 points as well.
Right in line with Zogby's!
You might want to adjust your snark on this one, Eric.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/21/AR2008052100137.html
May 21, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, Josh, the Reuters poll is the Zogby poll.
May 21, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really?
Oy vey.
DOAH!
lol.
ARGH.
May 21, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course you don't cover the really important poll from Zogby today, which shows Obama trouncing McCain.
Bad reporting, Eric. Where's the numbers about how Obama is 8 points ahead of McCain? Or about how voters trust Obama over McCain to handle the economy 48-39%? What about how Obama's winning against McCain among independents 47-35%?
Seriously. I understand that this may be an outlier, but certainly, if it shows anything, it shows that there's a trend of support for Obama.
SOURCE:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2034087120080521
McCain is the real target, but of course he's not getting the coverage he should be getting.
May 21, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually it's not an outlier.
Reuters poll has it O-59%,C-33%
Zogby poll has it O-59%,C-33%
Both 26 point spreads today
And from yesterday, Gallup had it O-55%,C-39%.
A 16 point spread from yesterday. Can't wait to see today's.
May 21, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't strike you as suspicious that the Reuters and Zogby numbers are exactly the same? Suspicious enough to consider the possibility they might be discussing, in fact, the same poll? Are you really that stupid?
May 21, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll being an "outlier" is the least of its problems. The problem is the source, which is a pollster who has lost all credibility.
Look, a broken clock is right twice a day. But I wouldn't rely on it, even though it may ocassionally be correct.
May 21, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't he do pretty well in North Carolina and Indiana?
May 21, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Important poll from Zogby" is an oxymoron.
May 21, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's get this straight - Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico (?!?!) are left and they're still taking NATIONAL POLLS?!
May 21, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
For trends. It's also something the supers pay VERY close attention too.
May 21, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The supers should have all the damned evidence they need!
Enough already!
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I can't argue with that, that's for sure.
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's been crap this election cycle.
Just my .02.
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, check out his results in Indiana, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. He has recently been much better.
May 21, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby . . . Lives in the internet. When you read Zogby polls you are getting what happens when a thermometer is stuffed up the backside of folk with jacks in the backs of their heads. The demographics of the wired are skewed . . . Due to the partial liberation from meat-space.
Internet users tend to be younger, more affluent and literate/educated (Yes, even the porn-addicts). The delta is the running edge. When you talk to folk that are one or so standard deviations from the norm te universe is a bit wonky.
Zogby was accurate in several of the last couple of state races. I think Zogby is getting better at figuring out the shift. They are not yet perfect but growing better.
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Richard, are you telling me that all Zogby polls are online polls?
Online polls are notoriously inaccurate.
May 21, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is not an internet poll, Zogby does those for the WSJ and they are called Zogby Interactive polls.
This was done by telephone.
May 21, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
I didn't think they could all possibly be internet polls.
May 21, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Richard, only "Zogby Interactive" polls are taken online. This is a conventional phone poll, as were those others you referred to that have more recently been accurate.
Just because it is Zogby doesn't mean it was done through the internet, Zogby Interactive polls are I believe done exclusively for the Wall Street Journal, this was done for Reuters.
May 21, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the info.
Zogby spams me for my worthless opinion almost as much as Harris . . .
May 21, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you guys quote Zogby anymore? Wouldn't a monkey throwing feces at a dart board have a greater chance of being accurate?
May 21, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am 100% behind obama, but i am not buying this one! unrealistic at best!
May 21, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
all stand to be corrected. in any case, i would rather play it safe and not get too happy over one or two polls.
i am taking solace in the fact that obama is polling better and better as this saga draws to a close....
May 21, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think when the next set of polls come out, he'll be vindicated. Looking at the Gallup tracking poll, Obama has opened up a 16 point lead in the last couple of days. The media narrative shifted after Indiana and North Carolina and that's driving these polls. That and the fact that over the last week, we've been witnessing the opening rounds in the GE battle between Obama and McSame.
It's plausible.
May 21, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is consolidating. It might overstating things a bit, but he is bringing it all together and people are starting to realize she is a goner.
May 21, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact you can get a poll with this kind of number means SOMETHING, even if it is an outlier....you don't see any other "outliers" showing Hillary with a lead, now do you?
May 21, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent point, Dorn!
May 21, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I second that. I think all this dismissing the poll simply cause it's Zogby is frustrating.
Still, as I pointed out before, we should be looking at the fact that Obama is polling so far ahead of McCain.
May 21, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is frustrating.
I just got so badly burnt by polls in '04 that I'm very leery.
May 21, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I understand. So let's be cautious. But let's not take the road of completely dismissing this. It's a positive for Obama no matter how you spin it, in my opinion, and for that alone we should be cheering.
May 21, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby decided to secede West Virginia and Kenctucky from the union.
Heck, Obama didn't do that much better in his home state of Illinois: 65-33, instead of 59-33!
May 21, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reuters and Zogby are the same, that's why they have the same numbers.
May 21, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Eric.
This doesn't look like an outlier.
It's a trend detector.
Zogby had problems with his polling samples on Super Tuesday; since that time his samples have been SPOT ON.
May 21, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very good point, and another reason not to dismiss it as crap.
May 21, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can see pretty much everything you need to know about polls when two or more come out on the same day differing by 10+ pts with each claiming a 3 pt margin of error.
May 21, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Outlier schmoutlier BATBOY
May 21, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
HOWARD WOLFSON - "We don't pay attention to polls!"
May 21, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to love Zogby for his consistency.
May 21, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The real deal is that Hillary has the stronger electoral map and Obama is losing ground and the way he has campaigned has alienated long term Democrats to the point that we will vote McCain.
FiveThirtyEight.com is the real deal versus this trivia TPM is indulging in.
"One of our largest collections of polling data in some time:
Big picture here?
For Obama, his electoral map is sharpening. He's presently winning all Kerry states except for New Hampshire, although he makes up for that with a safe-looking lead in Iowa. In order to win the election, he'll either need to:
1) Win Ohio (while holding Michigan and Wisconsin), or
2) Win two or three of the Western "four corner" states (NV, CO, NM) and either Ohio or Michigan.
By contrast, the "Southern Strategy" of putting states like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida into play does not appear to be polling especially strongly for him at the moment. If he needs a third alternative, he might stand a better chance by aiming to flip the Midwest-Southern hybrid states of Missouri (where he's still trailing, but these numbers are an improvement) and Indiana.
As for Clinton, she's had a couple of weeks where she's been polling pretty strongly everywhere. I would not pay especially much attention to the SurveyUSA poll showing her ahead by 6 in North Carolina. I am not saying it is an 'outlier'; I agree with Charles Franklin's philosophy that there is no such thing as an outlier. But this is the whole point of taking a weighted average of polls, and other polling in North Carolina has not shown her especially competitive.
Nevertheless, Clinton certainly seems to have improved her hand in the South -- I haven't looked to see whether she's getting more of the white Southern vote, or whether some black Southerners are starting to come back to her. The Florida and Missouri numbers definitely look good for her.
Somewhat counterintuitively, Clinton may actually have the broader electoral map than Obama, putting at least as many red states into play but also having more blue states that she'd need to defend. And for the time being, it is probably also the stronger electoral map, although the Obama folks can argue -- not unreasonably -- that things will change once the Democrats unify behind Obama, and also that Clinton's map would look different had she been taking the frontrunner's heat that Obama has been.
UPDATE: Inserted SurveyUSA's California poll, and corrected the sample size on Missouri. It was actually quite a large poll (1,523 respondents), helping both Democrats."
May 21, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink