Republican Leading In Key Missouri House Race
Yesterday we brought you a ridiculous attack ad being run by Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) that ties his Dem opponent to the "San Francisco values" of Nancy Pelosi -- a sign that the incumbent sensed he was in serious danger, to be going up negative so early.
Well, guess what? A new poll confirms Graves is vulnerable, but still ahead in the race.
The new numbers from SurveyUSA: Graves (R) 49%, Barnes (D) 39%.
This race is being closely watched by the national parties because it offers Dems a chance at knocking off a four-term incumbent, which would be a major victory. And for his part, Graves is in the sub-50% danger zone -- so expect to see more of that wacky ad and others like it, in order to whip up the GOP base.















Homophobia may go deeper than racism.
May 21, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the ad is working! These are Republicans. These are the people that support Bush. These are the people that believe Iraq attacked us. These are the people that think America was founded on Christian principals. They vote based on emotion. Of course an ad like that would sway them.
May 21, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most people vote on emotion. How many of us voted for Kerry in 2004 because, bear with me now, we hated Bush's guts? That there are reasons for that doesn't matter, they enabled us to justify our emotions.
May 21, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
God, Greg - if it seems to be working, that may be merely a function of the fact that people are hearing the name for the first time.
May 21, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
So now the GOP has it's magic formula: Baffle them with bullshit.
As the old saying goes: If you can't convince them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.
This is the reason Hillary's claim to the less educated never did well with me; the GOP has the dumbass vote locked up already and no amount of pandering will change that.
May 21, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um..... how exactly? For the ad to be 'working', doesn't that imply that the current poll numbers are lower (for Barnes) than some previous poll numbers before the ad was run? I don't see you quoting any previous polling on this race.....
May 21, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm confused, Eric. How do you know it might be working?
Have the numbers changed since the ads started?
May 21, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Greg - this is Erik.
So, Erik - how do you know that an increase in poll numbers is directly tied to the substance of this ad?
Why isn't is actually more easily seen as people hearing the name over and over?
May 21, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
What were the polls like before this ad came out?
May 21, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Homosexuals - The Terroriss of the '08 Election!
What bullshit will the GOP come up with next??????
May 21, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Terrorists...oops
May 21, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you mean:
"tay-er-rists"?
May 21, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
My semi-educated guess it that gay bashing is a losing issue with the electorate born after the mid-sixties. By the 2016 presidential election, this group will represent everyone 50 and younger.
I was talking to one of the deacons at my rural-Georgia southern baptist church and he said something very interesting to me that basically went like this - Homosexuality to folks today is kind of like drinking was to our parents and grandparents. This huge big deal. But to us - we might not do it ourselves, but we don't think it is a big deal that others do.
I think that starting with this election we are going to see the emergence of a Republican view point that is much more socially liberterian and that isn't really anti-government but just argues that leaner, less wastefully government works better for the people. In other words, Goldwater conservatism with out the "government is evil" rhetoric.
The compromise with social conservatives will be to push that issues like abortion and gay marriage should not be decided either way by the federal government but should be decided by individual states. It might even be framed as a way of protecting social groups in the minority from the tyranny of the majority.
May 21, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me clarify - I mean that after the Republicans get beaten badly this November, there will be a new philosophy coming out some of the younger folks on the right. Hate him or not, Tucker Carlson is a pretty good example of the type of Republican that seems to me would embrace this viewpoint. John Cole and Andrew Sullivan also come to mind.
May 21, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It basically is a state issue.
Except that the constitution has the Equal Protection Clause, which means to me and always did that the right exists already - so it all gets federal when you start to consider Full Faith and Credit, and the best analogy for all of this are the old miscegenation laws - some states recognized marriage between biracial couples and some didn't.
The SCOTUS actually used the Interstate Commerce Clause of the constitution to settle a lot of equal rights issues - it turns out to be a very useful clause.
May 21, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even I can see the McSame gop kool aid here.
The gop are so sad. THey are the real radicals.
I stand with dems against this hate.
May 21, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know this is a small matter, but you guys at TPM are hip. You call it 'san-fran' or 'frisco' if you are over 70 and live in Kansas. To the rest of the world, it is as herb caen said it best "ess eff".
May 21, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes, the denizens of The City. Y'all are so sensitive to what San Francisco gets called that every time I hear Tupac do "California Love" and give a shout out to "Frisco" I giggle.
May 21, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now here's the new cut from John McCain's latest CD "I'm Bush, Too":
Bomb, bomb, bomb ... bomb, bomb the queers!
May 21, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
When a SUSA poll has so many undecideds, there's more to the situation than what meets the eye.
May 21, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, what we can conclude is:
- Barack Obama : Does not alienate right-wing voters
- Dancing : Alienates right-wing voters
May 21, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with the Commenters who wrote that without a poll BEFORE the TV ad showing the incumbent with lower numbers, it doesn't make any sense to conclude that the ad is helping him.
The only previous poll I know of is what the voters did on Election Day in 2006: They gave Rep. Samuel B. Graves, Jr. (R-MO) 61.6%.
49% is a decline in the Republican incumbent's popularity from 61.6%.
May 21, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
There you go.
San Francisco Democrats get to have all the fun, while Grave's Missouri fans have to live with the consequences of voting Republican.
May 21, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the viewers didn't get the message...just identified the Republican's name and kind of snapped their fingers and tapped their toes. Maybe the Democrat (whose name you should have mentioned, which I don't remember either) should come up with a catchier, less turgid response.
May 21, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barnes has been planning this race since she moved into the distrcit during her firrst term as KC's mayor back in 2001. She was term limited out of the Mayor's office in 2007. She has a history of being under-estimated and surprising the pundits. When she announced for mayor in 1999, politicos wondered why she bothered. five months later, they understood.
If she has Graves under 50% already -- he's toast.
May 21, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a pure example of "dogshit politics".
The GOP drops the same dogshit in everyone's yard and hopes the enemy steps in it. As much as you try you can never get rid of every trace or smell.
A Flaming bag of shit on the front porch works equally well.
Gotta love the GOP.
May 21, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
What other shocking footage will the Republican candidate's ad men concoct? Kids finger painting? Mothers in aprons baking cookies?
If yew e-lect mah Democrit challenger, college-age kids will bar hop!! Muslim immigrant children will win scholarships!! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together!!!! (Please, a nod to ex-senator Santorum on that last one. Ha-ha.)
May 21, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can you argue the ad is working without having some polling numbers pre-ad? Also, when exactly was the poll taken? Did the ad run long enough for it to sink in? This is an incumbent Republican running in a Republican leaning district, keep in mind.
May 21, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The people of the City and County of San Francisco thank Mrs. Clinton for publicly trashing us (BitterGate) and special mention to her toady Gavin Newsom for not standing up for us
May 21, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha ha! That video is great! If that doesn't get a Dem in that seat, I don't know what will. For my part, I just donated $50 to Kay Barnes in Missouri, consider doing the same for getting that man out of office!
www.kay4congress.com
May 21, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That ad was so offensive, I went to Kay Barnes' site and donated $25 and I live in Texas.
Jackass.
May 21, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink