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USA Today/Gallup Poll Gives Hillary National Lead
The new USA Today/Gallup poll gives Hillary Clinton the national lead against Barack Obama, diverging from other polls that have shown Obama withstanding the latest problems to come up involving Jeremiah Wright. The numbers, compared to two weeks ago:
Clinton 51% (+11)
Obama 44% (-6)Sample size: 516 Democrats or Democratic leaners.
Margin of error: ±5%
A caveat: USA Today points out that the separate Gallup tracking poll, taken over the same period but with more respondents and only a three percent margin of error, puts Obama ahead 49%-45%.
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Isn't there a word for this? "Outlier." That's the word. The poll results don't match Gallups' tracking poll. I think USA Today has just paid a lot of money for a bad poll.
May 5, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
This doesn't make any sense. One poll shows Hillary ahead by 7 pts, the other has Obama ahead by 5 --- during the same time period but with different amount of respondents asked.
This just goes to show you -- you can't trust polls unless they all say about the same thing.
May 5, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the difference is in how they are screening for likely voters. The CBS/NYT poll also has more favorable results for HRC when they look at the Democratic electorate rather than "primary voters" (which is where Obama does well.) My understanding is that the USAToday poll is screening differently than the Gallup tracking poll. Can you clear this up for us, Eric?
May 5, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
The key difference here isn't the margins of error in the two polls. It's possible that what we're seeing here is methodological, as daphne notes; Mark Blumenthal posted an extensive discussion of this possibility back in February, the last time we saw such a huge divergence. It might be that the questions asked earlier in the USAToday poll prejudice the later responses, or that the different pools of respondents explain the differences.
But Gallup then ran its own numbers, and concluded that "none of the known differences between Gallup Poll Daily tracking and the USA Today/Gallup poll, based on our analysis, are obvious causes for the disparity in the Democratic ballot estimate between the two samples." I don't know that the same is necessarily true of this disparity, but I suspect that it is. The bottom line is that polling is, at best, an imperfect science.
That's why, in these cases, it's often useful to refer to "polls-of-polls," which (imperfectly) blend multiple results. That reduces the we-don't-know-what-the-hell-it-means factor, although it can't, of course, eliminate it. In this case, the polls-of-polls show Obama maintaining a narrow national lead.
May 5, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the difference is in how they are screening for likely voters. The CBS/NYT poll also has more favorable results for HRC when they look at the Democratic electorate rather than "primary voters" (which is where Obama does well.) My understanding is that the USAToday poll is screening differently than the Gallup tracking poll.
From the article (buried almost THIRTY paragraphs down):
However, those findings differ from a separate Gallup tracking poll of voters, which shows Obama with a narrow lead, 49%-45%. The daily tracking poll has a margin of error of +/-3 points; the USA TODAY poll's margin of error is +/-5 points.
The two surveys were taken over the same days, but the tracking poll includes more interviews and a higher proportion of interviews taken on Saturday. It reflects the views of those seen as likely voters; the USA TODAY results include all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were called.
So the basic difference seems to be that people that USAToday doesn't consider likely voters, but does consider to be Democrats of Dem-leaning, must heavily support Clinton.
May 5, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the specifics of this worthless survey:
This has zero bearing on the actual election going on right now. Indiana is an open primary, as are a couple of the remaining contests. The general is an open primary as well.
How is a survey of 516 democrats (and "democratic leaners" whatever the hell that means and how it is quantified) even relevant to the election?
I hate outlawing anything, but polls are being used as propaganda. Period. Just like lobbyists are performing legal (and not so legal) bribery.
Polls should be outlawed; their methods mandated to provide meaningful snapshots of the actual electorate; or the media should forced to offer context to show just how meaningless those numbers are.
Something is rotten in Denmark for sure.
May 5, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meant to say the general is an open election as well.
May 5, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
4 out of 5 posts so far today only on stupid polls.
Eric is on a roll here and nothing is going to stop him. (sounds familiar ?)
May 5, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt, how about a post about Hillary's disasterous performance on Stephanapolis' show yesterday.
Her worst showing yet.
May 5, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
So it's actually within the (rather large) margin of error.
May 5, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
A 19 point gap between the USAToday Poll and CBS News poll. This is why polls are useless.
May 5, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you are saying the tracking poll is more relevant, and probably more accurate (more respondents, lower margin of error), but it gets second billing?
May 5, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
As for a Gas Tax Holiday, John McCain or Hillary will not be President this summer so how can John McCain or Hillary really Implement this idea into FACT.. they can't! It is a gimmick that they cannot produce on... That is so sad, and another example of Politicians trying to fool people for a vote on an idea or Gift they can't deliver on or produce. It's basically dishonest and a lie! Barack will not make a Phony Promise to the American people! And media is disingenuous when they do not enquire of Hillary or John the fact that how can they make this law when they will not be President this summer so they too are perpetuating this myth!
As for the obliteration of Iran remark, we should recall what Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill wrote in position 8 after World War II in The Atlantic Charter, both who knew and were familiar with the horrors of war....
Position "Eighth, they believe that all of the nations of the world, for realistic as well as spiritual reasons must come to the abandonment of the use of force. Since no future peace can be maintained if land, sea or air armaments continue to be employed by nations which threaten, or may threaten, aggression outside of their frontiers, they believe, pending the establishment of a wider and permanent system of general security, that the disarmament of such nations is essential. They will likewise aid and encourage all other practicable measures which will lighten for peace-loving peoples the crushing burden of armaments."
Frankllin D. Roosevelt
Winston S. Churchill
Less we forget!
P.S. On Morning Joe, Joe said as they watched a clip today of Hillary speaking in Indianna and commented on how Inspirational she had become. What they did not say is that the speech sounded an awful lot like a Barack Obama Speech!
May 5, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Morning Joke" also spent about half an hour railing against "elites" and "economists" who "just don't get it", and going on about how regular Americans want the gas tax holiday, and the few extra dollars "to drive to their second job", or "take the kids to school".....
What self-righteous bullcrap.
May 5, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, because Joe, politician turned television celebrity, really knows what the people want.
The biggest problem with these idiots is that they actually believe they speak for Americans, or have some special insight into them.
Rich people will never (99.9 percent of them) understand what a regular person is thinking or motivated by. Money recalibrates the brain too thoroughly.
What about that Capital Gains Tax, Joe, how do Americans feel about that?
May 5, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
74% of TPM readers are complaining about polls.
Out of the 74%, 22% are Hillary supporters. With 12% undecided, the rest support Obama.
Of the 23% who are not complaining about the polls, 2% are Eric and Greg. 100% of that 2% are finding their job to be easier these past few days, as more and more polling companies release more and more polls, 62% of which say pretty much nothing at all.
However, 84% of all polled TPMers agree that the of late absence of Matthew Weaver is welcome and of that 84%, Hillary supporters and Obama supporters are equally annoyed that this comment they are presently reading is turning out to be like most of the polls, of little consequence at all, but marginally entertaining, if only for a moment.
May 5, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Wouldn't surprise me if Eric actually posted this poll too.
May 5, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two Hillary CA SD's seem to have buyer's remorse.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-supers5-2008may05,0,4564727.story
They are so like my son :).
May 5, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
goodjob hillary clinton
May 5, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe (dead intern) Skankborough is an IDIOT
nuff'said
May 5, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
yikes! Do we need to raise the specter of the dead intern?
Unseemly. I was just saying he was a self righteous ass, not a murderer/adulterer or whatever you're insinuating.
I'd rather attack someone for their viewpoint and their actions rather than for sellacious/unproven personal shit. It does seem he went a long way to get the story behind him, which raises questions in and of itself, but I'm just not sure they are relevant in the context of this campaign.
The episode is creepy, for sure. But personal destruction is not the type of politics I think we should be playing.
May 5, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"salacious"
My apologies.
May 5, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tee hee.
"BREAKING! Astrologer can turn crap to gold by touching! A caveat: astrologer can in fact not turn crap to gold."
May 5, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even if the best pols for Clinton are correct, she loses. Obama will stay ahead in delegates and popular vote, unless he's found with a dead hooker.
May 5, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or a live hooker, depending on what her pastor's like.
May 5, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
More Clinton SD's wavering.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/05/02/ST2008050203875.html
May 5, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
BREAKING NEWS! Gallup reports that two outta three people in the Clinton household support Hillary Clinton for pResident . . .
This poll has less than one half of one percent of one percent of one percent of one percent of one percent of the population of USA.
Let me guess . . . Gallup made sure that the folk questioned were Democrats or DEM leaners by using Hillary's donor list . . .
May 5, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
A caveat: most Democrats have already voted and Obama has an insurmountable lead in elected delegates. I'm sorry folks, but Clinton is not the nominee. I would say it is admirable that Clinton continues to fight on, except I think it is closer to being nakedly self-serving, delusional, and destructive to the Democratic Party.
If a national poll conducted after most everyone has voted still has the ability to change the nominee, then there is clearly no democracy in the Democratic Party.
May 5, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is what the USA Today/Gallup Poll says:
Poll: Flap over pastor hurts Obama
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.
The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.
In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-04-obama_N.htm?csp=15
May 5, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink