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Two New Polls Put Obama Way Ahead In Oregon
A new pair of polls in Oregon give Barack Obama a big lead going into tomorrow's primary, a contest that is expected to clinch a majority of pledged delegates for him:
SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 42%Sample size: 627 likely and actual primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.Public Policy Polling (D)
Obama 58%
Clinton 39%Sample size: 1,296 likely and actual primary voters.
Margin of error: ±2.7%.
From PPP's analysis: "Obama has likely pretty much won the election already. Oregon votes by mail, and he is polling at 59% with the 74% of poll respondents who reported already having cast their ballots."
These polls both run counter to a Suffolk poll from earlier today, which had shown it to be a close race.
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Did either poll mention Gravel's numbers?
May 19, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
no surprise here. Just another exit sign for someone.
May 19, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA numbers sound about the closest form what I hear on the ground here in Oregon.
May 19, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what is that exactly?
May 19, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That it should shake out to around a 13-15 point spread.
May 19, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how about the Senate race?
Do either of the Dems have a shot at knocking off Smith in the general?
May 19, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
They both do, though I think Merkley will be the stronger candidate, and will likely pul it out in the primary against Novick (by a razor thing a margin). Internal polling shows Merkley winning the nom. which is why you see a constant barrage on television by Smith running negative ads attacking Merkely to try and soften Merkely up because Smith's internals show him both vulnerable and Merkely being the likely nom.
May 19, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your insights!
May 19, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
These are much more believable than that Suffolk crap.
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Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 19, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was the BS fantasy of Kefa, HillaryClinton08 and like-minded Hillary shills.
May 19, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's more like it. Time for this to end.
May 19, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the odds Hillary will drop out by the weekend?
May 19, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very small, and that's a good thing.
As long as Hillary stops using negative campaigning, and as long as there is a reasonable solution to Michigan and Florida, it's far better for Hillary to run out her numbers and get the public used to the fact that Obama is the nominee in a fair election.
It's such a shame. If Hillary hadn't have gone so negative, 'equal time' could have been two attacks on McCain a day instead of two attacks on Obama a day.
May 19, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have read various rumors this week that a number of office staffers, etc are being told Wednesday's the day - not for her to drop-out per-se, but for a vast gutting of staff and overhead. My one insider in camp HRC is no longer in there, so can't get any sort of direct confirmation from the inside and I'm treating as anecdotal, but there are numerous whispers floating about.
Going by the Milbank Article from last week, I'd say she's in as long as the media is willing to perpetuate the Potemkin Candidacy.
May 19, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is ot, but I just love your avatar.
Those are some fabulous teeth!
May 19, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why thank you :)
I've been meaning to compliment yours as well - our cats appear to be separated at birth :)
May 19, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zero.
May 19, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just can't see it, nor does she need to.
Clinton has finally, in this last week, adopted the tone that's pro-her without tearing Obama up. Given that, she's welcome to run as long as she likes. I mean, the whole thing ends in 15 days, why push it?
Via my back-of-envelope calculations, Obama will need something like 64 more delegates following tomorrow for the 2025-win. He's likely to get 22-25 from Puerto rico, and about 17 more from MT and SD together... that only leaves about 25 more SD endorsements to go, which should be in the bag by then. Even if you include MI/FL in some reduced amount, that number only grows by a bit.
The primary season really will end with a whimper, not a bang.
May 19, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virtually zero, I'd say. She's painted herself into a corner with her bitter end rhetoric and now she has to stay in until June 3.
May 19, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will be interesting to compare Obama's margin of victory in Oregon to Clinton's margin of victory in Kentucky.
May 19, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would that be interesting?
May 19, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
How so? They are both likely to be blowouts, but the facts remain: she needs to win both states by more than the margin she got in West Virginia to even jump-start the conversation. Both.
It's over, guy.
May 19, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, not really. What will be interesting is the reaction that the Clinton campaign has to the fact that Obama will clinch the majority of pledged delegates, meaning that there will be no realistic pathway to the nomination for Clinton that doesn't involve her metaphorically blowing herself up at the convention and handing John McCain the election. Some might call that interesting as well, but more reasonable people can be hope that it doesn't come to that.
May 19, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting? Like watching paint dry.
May 19, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. What will be "interesting," you know, in the sense of being relevant to the nomination, will be comparing their delegate counts after these elections.
May 19, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
May 19, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
love you, idiotic
May 19, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sincerely hope you stick around throughout the campaign. You are becoming epic on the intertubes.
May 19, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn it let me in!
This goddamn typeset site is wack!
May 19, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have been trying to get this bitch to recognize me for 2 and 1/2 hours.
I've changed my password 3 times.
AAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrghghghghggh!
May 19, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Log out, then log back in and agree to the disclaimer. Had me screwed all morning as well.
May 19, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Same thing just happened to me. I can only hope that this was due to TPM purging the site of some of the more offensive posters here lately and needing the remaining logins to re-agree to the TOS, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
May 19, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tried that - couldn't log in.
Finally seems to have decided to quit fucking with me for awhile.
whew!
May 19, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What browser are you using? I have had to only log in once using Firefox.
May 19, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Safari and I almost did switch to Firefox. I would have if I hadn't gotten in.
May 19, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: I still can't upload a frickin' avatar through Safari. Any hints?
May 19, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't upload an avatar either and I've tried using Safari, Firefox and Internet Explorer.
I've emailed the TPM webmaster, but haven't gotten any response.
For the meantime, it looks as if our avatars will continue to resemble elusive criminals on the FBI's 10 Most Wanted list.
May 19, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither can I. I've been trying unsuccessfully to don a new look for the past few days.
May 19, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
same here.
May 19, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
My avatar does not look like a wanted poster!
May 19, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dragged mine from my desktop into the box. That's the easiest way to do anything on a .mac. Try dragging it first - no matter what it is.
It's amazing how often that works. ;)
May 19, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Try making it a gif instead of a jpeg. sometimes that works to make the file even smaller and the server has a top size limit.
also get rid of the iptc info in the file to make it smaller.
May 20, 2008 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't just you!
Driving me nuts too.
May 19, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I mentioned in another thread, an Oregon journalist on CNN shot down the Suffolk poll, noting that it included independents who can't vote in the state's Democratic primary. The journalist pointed to the SurveyUSA poll as having consistently been more accurate in Oregon and most likely to represent the final results more closely.
May 19, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey--I'm happy with a 12pt. victory in OR, especially considering the thumping he's going to get in KY.
May 19, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
herr otto, you are right. general von hillbot's counter attack will turn the tide yet. senator obama has entered the appalachian trap. our national blood will remain pure. put away the cyanide tablets. victory is within reach.
May 19, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Response of the day!
May 19, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's as if the Iraqi Information Minister has returned from exile.
"I can assure you that those villains will recognize, will discover in appropriate time in the future how stupid they are and how they are pretending things which have never taken place. Go Hillary!"
May 19, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, Taylor Marsh is making a meal out of the narrow margins in the Suffolk and ARG results. You would think that she would have learned her lesson after she said the same about NC, only to see the margin of victory prove much wider than the polls, but evidently she is a glutton for punishment.
May 19, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amazing, the shreds they will cling to.
;)
May 19, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mathematically challenged and rationally handicapped- TM and her quasi-clan.
May 19, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I swear to God, I feel like I'm watching a Nazi rally when I read the comments on that site.
May 19, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just returned from the TM site.
Think I need to go take a shower.
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Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 19, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Suffolk and ARG count Gerry Ferraro's preference. In her world, at least, her opinion matters. The only thing that matters Tuesday is popular vote. Obama needs a big turnout in Oregon, to nudge Hillary just a wee bit closer to a graceful exit.
May 19, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really do hope the story about Saban trying to buy the Young Democrats of America's superdelegates gets some play in the MSM.
May 19, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a headline at HuffPo.
May 19, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to have a little talk with Ms Ferraro.
It's not as if she's been so very valuable to the Democrats. She hasn't brought that much to the table. She's really pushing the envelope and I'd love to ask her if she has any idea how she looks.
I seriously would like it if someone shoots me before I get that old and that bitter and go public with it.
May 19, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMAO!
May 19, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
oooh! let me do it TenaX... I volunteer!
May 19, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's with you and shooting?
I still remember this:
May 19, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who said that about things can change fast?
As far as me and shooting goes - it's always a possibility. I live part time in Taos, part time in Dallas - lots of guns in both places and I've about decided that getting hit with a stray bullet wouldn't be such a bad way to go. It would make one hell of a story for my survivors.
May 19, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain wants to continue all of Bush's failed policies, both foreign and domestic. Only crazy people keep doing the same thing over and over, and keep expecting different results.
Come on America. Try something different. Vote Obama2008
May 19, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
There were 80,000 friggin people in Portland yesterday. That is 1/10 of the entire estimated primary voters - for both parties. Granted they aren't all from OR, aren't all Obama voters, aren't all voting age but still. No way you get that many people at a rally and only win by a few points.
Of course anything can happen - never trust polls in this election.
May 19, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It does not matter.
He could lose by 40 like in KY and the supers would still give it to him.
Its BS.
BTW, you should get up off your ass and help the folks get proper ID to vote because there are no supers in the general. Just electoral votes that he is losing.
Clinton would win.
May 19, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least you're admitting he's won. That's progress.
May 19, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife is wavering between acceptance and denial. Gotalife needs space and time before moving on to the next stage of grief.
May 19, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is what? Syphilis?
May 19, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bitter Troll
May 19, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm, because he's not running for President of Kentucky?
May 19, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, last week it was all about the wisdom of the supers being a check on the "activists" (i.e. voters) ..so why the change gotalife?
May 19, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nuff Sad GL. If anyone knows anything about getting up off their ass - it's gotalife. He has to (medical condition).
Btw gotalife - you owe me BIG for having me buy that preparation H for you.
The cool aid (BS) (bulsshit) must stop.
May 19, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
funny and one hell of a fan...cheers dude.
May 19, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh wait, this is where Terry and Wolfie come out and say that polls don't matter, right?? We don't pay attention to polls, damn you! We never have!
Wolfie will be too busy spinning how Haim Saban, a very rich Clinton supporter, offered a $1 million bribe to superdelegates to support Clinton!
Olbermann's gonna have a field day tonight!
May 19, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone else seen this Monty Python inspired Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama cartoon?
It pretty much sums up the current state of the race.
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/hillaryclinton/ig/Hillary-Clinton-Cartoons/Call-it-a-Draw.-2rm.htm
May 19, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, c'mon. Obama would simply not do that.
It's really important to recognize that Obama's way of fighting is not slash and burn. The most violent thing I've seem him do is brush the sh!t off his shoulders. Every time one of those weirdos on the daily pseudo talk/news shows tries to get him to say something angry and sound like he's fighting, he redirects them to something in his story line that's upright, calm, consistent and reasonable sounding.
It's the choleric personalities in our society that don't like him. Haven't you figured that out?
May 20, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, Everybody. Over the cliff...Hurrrrrrryyyyyy!
May 19, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
and 2 more new SD for Obama from Alaska...
Cindy Spanyers and Blake Johnson
that's make 5 to 0 for Senator Obama...
Obama 08
May 19, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama: You're girls not the chosen cnadiate, Johnny. It was Obama who was chosen. You see, he found me and told me about the voters. You're just a fool.
Johnny2Bad Sunday: Why are you talking about Dean? Don't say this to me.
Barack Obama: I did what Dean couldn't. I broke your girl and I beat her. It was Dean who told me about Clinton and the 50 state strategy. He's the prophet. He's the smart one. He knew what votes and small-dollar dooners were there and he found me to take it out of the ground, and you know what the funny thing is? Listen... listen... listen... we put him in charge of the party, votes in hand, just like that. He has the party now. A prosperous little party. Three special elections producing. Five superdelegates a day.
[Johnny2Bad Sunday cries]
Barack Obama: Stop crying, you sniveling ass! Stop your nonsense. You're just the afterbirth, Johnny.
Johnny2Bad Sunday: No...
Barack Obama: You slithered out of your Penn's filth.
Johnny2Bad Sunday: No.
Barack Obama: They should have put you in a glass jar on a mantlepiece. Where were you when Dean was suckling at our parties base? Where were you? Who was nursing you, poor Johnny- one of Carville's sows? The nomination has been had. Nothing you can do about it. It's gone. It's had. You lose.
Johnny2Bad Sunday: If you would just take the Michigan popular vote, Daniel...
Barack Obama: Drainage! Drainage, Johnny, you boy. Drained dry. I'm so sorry. Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!
[sucking sound]
Barack Obama: I drink it up!
Johnny2Bad Sunday: Don't bully me, Barack!
[Barack Obama roars and throws Johnny2Bad Sunday across the room]
Barack Obama: Did you think your song and dance and your triangulation would help you, Johnny? I am the Third Revolution! I am who the party has chosen!
May 19, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know how much longer I can do this. With these...People.
May 19, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Masterful.
May 19, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
there you go again... those voices in your head must be maddening poor thing....
May 19, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I object to this BIASED spin from PPD and TPM. Those votes are all in envelopes and under the well known Heizenberg Ballot Uncertainty Principle they exist in a state of uncertainty, neither Clinton nor Obama, until the envelopes are open and observed by an election official. Thus, although the voter may have marked his or her ballot "Obama" before putting them in the envelope and mailing them, they could theoretically actually turn out to be for Hillary when they are opened and observed.
Hey, it makes as much sense as the "the superdelegates could all change their minds" argument they've been making.
May 19, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who's on Schrodinger's ballot?
May 19, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gonna have to go with Socks.
May 19, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could someone please explain to me how Sen. Clinton (apart from her lack of a Y chromosome) is such a good precedent for women's achievement?
She's held only one elected office in her life, thus far.
By almost any stretch of the imagination, she would not have even been considered for that office, were it not for her husband's status.
I admire Sen. Clinton immensely, and think she's generally gotten a raw deal from conservatives. But if I were to pick an exemplar of what women are capable of, I'd pick almost any female senator or governor (even most Republicans) before Sen. Clinton.
Her personal rise seems pretty "old school" to me.
May 19, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Sen. Obama? What's the "precedent of achievement" there? Was it his impressive state senate tenure or beating the mighty Alan Keyes?
May 19, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's not the one running as the "experience" candidate.
May 19, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Even he could market that one. Better to stick with the hope and change strategy.
May 19, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, what?!
May 20, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big deal!
Hillary is over 30 POINTS ahead in Kentucky. Don't see you touting that anywhere.
Just like the 40+ Point win in W.Va.... YOU & Obama tried to change the subject on that too..
HE'll never win general election. He'll be like another Kerry, another Dukakis, another Gore, another ..... another loss for Dems.
That's what you get when you nominate FAR LEFT LOONIES ... & Terroist sympathizers!
May 19, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
All of you terroist sympathizers disgust me also!
Truly - I cannot stand you - teorroing veryone left and right - standing for nothing but terro!
The teo must stop!!!!!!!!!!!! If not - RaeK and I will NEVER POST AGAIN.
May 19, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kudos again. Raek meets her fate. Keep it up.
May 19, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um--Gore did win the general election (Florida too). And, lest you forget, were it not for Ross Perot, Hillary's husband never would have won in 1992.
Given that Obama's policies are similar to Clinton's, except that her health care policy includes mandates to cover everyone, I don't know how you go about arguing that Obama represents the far-left of the party, whereas Clinton is some kind of centrist. That's certainly not how the Republicans will portray her, if she gets her miracles and wins the nomination. It will be Clinton the uber-liberal all the way.
May 19, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, as WV and Kentucky go, so goes the electoral vote!
May 19, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I must have missed Carter's second term and slept through Dukakis administration since they both carried WV in those elections.
May 19, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was being sarcastic. I know that many a presidential candidate has won these states without winning the Presidency.
May 19, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink