Today's Primaries Could Change State Of The Race
Today is the big day in Indiana and North Carolina, with primaries set to determine whether Barack Obama can end the nomination fight or if Hillary Clinton will be able to sow enough doubts to keep the clock running.
One likely scenario, as we pointed out yesterday, is that Obama could win North Carolina and Clinton take Indiana by similar margins -- by itself a near-wash, but in effect a victory for Obama.
The first polls close tonight in Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, with the the last polls there closing at 7 p.m. ET. Polls close in all of North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Late Update: The candidates' schedules are a good indication of where they feel the most confident -- Obama will be in Raleigh for his election night rally, while Clinton will spend the night in Indianapolis.
Comments (230)
By "Change" iam assuming you mean Hillary dropping out. Since thats the only thing that could change.
May 6, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why should Hillery drop out? She's way ahead in super delegates. She made up ground over the last month in popular vote and pledged delegates. She's going to win really big in IN, at least 10% and maybe 15%. She's going to win in NC, given the fabulous work WVWV has done "registering" black NC men.
Obama has got to close the deal and he can't. Mostly that's because he can't bowl, likes OJ, hates flag lapel pins, and is a multi-millionaire graduate of an elite Ivy league law school.
Hillery, on the other hand, is a downhome country gal who bowls all the time, like whiskey, wears a lapel pin the shower, and is a multi-millionaire graduate of an elite Ivy league law school.
She's everything Obama is not. She's exactly what America needs right now. For the last 8 years, Bush and his gang have made every decision based on the careful analysis of elite academics and sage experts. And look where that got us. Hillery is going to put an end to that; who care what economists say? When's the last time they answered the phone at 3:00 AM?
May 6, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOL!
May 6, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
BREAKING: BALLOT FRAUD IN NC !!
Obama voters were unable to locate levers for "HOPE" or "CHANGE" in the ballot booths today and cried "FRAUD"! Michelle was seen pouting.
VOTE YOUR CONSCIENCE
NOT YOUR WHITE GUILTY CONSCIENCE
May 6, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
May 6, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
She has an American flag tattoo where her lapel would be.
May 6, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing changes. It goes to June and then Hillary drops out.
May 6, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless she loses in both states. Then she concedes tomorrow.
May 6, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
If she loses both, I bet she'll have to be forced to concede, probably by a flood of SDs going to Obama.
May 6, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even then I doubt she would concede. If Obama got the 2025 delegates needed she would probably start shrieking like harpy about Florida and Michigan.
May 6, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Start?
She's already on that wagon with the "nuclear option" that will come down May 31. I expect it will get eiterh squashed or made irrelevent by the Super deluge for Obama. He will end up with a 200 delegaet lead so any solution including MI/FL will not change the result even if all of her delegates are seated as is.
May 6, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Queen of the Clintoids will not drop out.
Her campaign filed for rules changes for the Florida and Michigan delagates. The rules won't be set until the first day of the convention.
Clinton will kill the Party before she quits.
May 6, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's more than an effectual victory, Eric, but that's ok.
It's an actual victory if he doesn't lose - so staying where he is or gaining is going to be a real victory - not just something that has that effect.
;)
May 6, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was almost done with a long, densely analytic post carefully examining the statistical tea-leaves for clues to today's voting when my browser crashed. I'm not going to go back and re-write the thing, but I though I'd offer my conclusions for whatever they're worth.
I think there's very good reason to believe, based upon the incredibly detailed data offered by North Carolina on its early voting, that turnout in NC is going to exceed expectations, as will Obama's margin there. The key is his extremely strong performance among early voters. Alas, this will be interpreted as evidence that he's struggled over the past week, leading to a drop-off in support by election day. In fact, it's an artifact of his better ground operation and more enthusiastic supporters - the same reasons that he always does better in the earlier rounds of exit-polling than in the later ones.
In Indiana, the situation is reversed. Clinton is almost certain to win that state, and by a decent margin. But her lead seems to have been eroding in recent days, and even with the usual rustbelt late-break in her favor, I'd be astonished if she won Indiana by as much as Obama wins North Carolina.
May 6, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
This shows just how much Hillary is driving the narrative at this point. By any measure, North Carolina is a much bigger prize. It has more delegates and it's trending Democratic. It is a state that could be won by a Democratic nominee in the not-to-distant future. Indiana - where I live - is always the first state to be declared for the Republican nominee. It has NO chance of going Democratic for at least another generation. We have fewer delegates to boot. It's only important because Hillary needs it to be important and the MSM loves a close race.
May 6, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Precisely. Obama could put North Carolina in play. Neither Democrat is going to win in Indiana in the general.
May 6, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I this case, Eric - the effect is the same thing as the thing itself.
See what I mean?
May 6, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever. The truth is Hillary, to win, has to win EVERY state left with about 70% of the vote, that won't happen, it is already over.
May 6, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Keith Olbermann snarked last night, "she will need an 'easily obtainable' 85% of the remaining delegates to overtake Obama". ;)
May 6, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love Keith.
I don't know one liberal woman who doesn't have a major crush on him.
May 6, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have a "six degrees of separation" kind of thing with Keith - I have a brother who's a sportcaster and he knows Keith (not well, but has worked with him). I keep telling him that before I die I have to meet him, and my brother promised. Hey, maybe I'll ask for that for my 50th birthday (which is next year - ahhhh!) You think my wonderful hubby will mind ;)
May 6, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
If your husband pitches a fit, I'll go and then I'll tell you about it.
How's that?
LOL!!!!
May 6, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's a deal LOL! Hubby knows all about my Keith crush, though, and he's OK with it! ;)
May 6, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the sign of how Obama's Presidency will work.
......
Via Ben Smith
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL0444578520080504
That's how you lead the world, not by "obliterating" it.
May 6, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup!
May 6, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kewl.
Africa is one huge explosion waiting to happen - the exploitation has just gone insane there and we need someone to start addressing some of this. This is one of the world's major continents and we all have a stake in it - a great deal of the world's most valuable resources are there in addition to a whole bunch of people. And the news out of Africa gets worse every week.
This is one of the most hopeful signs ever - that we could have a president who cares about Africa and tries to make a difference along with the rest of the world's nations and has a chance to make a difference there.
We spend so much time on the middle east - Africa is enormous and there are enormous problems that we are all involved in.
May 6, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
And He did that in Kenya too about a few weeks back by asking the warring factions to dial it down (I think on Condi's request !!!). Now, things seem to have calmed down there.
Coincidence ? mebbe. But one thing is sure. Hillary/McCain would have been given the fingers there.
May 6, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
"And that, folks, is how to lower gas prices."
A Ben Smith blogger
May 6, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice one! And this is probably how a Clinton presidency look like...
Isfahan,Iran (BBC): Emergency services face a daunting task of looking for survivors among the burning debris and firestorm after an American ICBM hit this town an hour ago.Early estimates indicate a cataclysmic loss of life running into hundreds of thousands.Meanwhile, aboard airforce one,the US president has confirmed having issued the order to "obliterate Iran"....
May 6, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana could decide everything, and is still shifting strongly towards Obama as we speak thanks to a strong Obama finish.
That said, don't just punditize... make calls to Indiana and North Carolina today, people!
Contact your friends there and get them out to vote, because an Obama victory in Indiana will effectively end this race and send the superdelegates strongly in his direction, possibly putting him over the top in delegates before the next several states.
May 6, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
From One Indian to All Indianians
Yes, You Can.
(Sorry Mark, can't make those calls, this is the best I could do from 5000 miles away)
May 6, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or u could just try SMOKE signals...
May 6, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
very clear: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegatecalculator/index.html
May 6, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - that is a great calculator. What a wonderful visual aid for people who have trouble understanding just how hopeless her remaining in this race is. Can we e-mail all the supers with this link LOL? ;)
May 6, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure anything will "change".
It could, sure. It's possible, as many things in life are possible. But at this point we have a pretty strong history of evidence to apply to the situation.
Obama will win NC.
Hillary will win IN. (Even if they "tie", it doesn't matter to her. She's not dropping out.)
We are where we began, Hillary with no real gain, but plenty to bark about (momentum, working class Indiana, yada yada) and on we go. She's dying to get to WV and Kentucky. It doesn't matter that the mean little in delegates, she's gonna use those as bellwethers and at least half of the media will go along for the ride.
Nothing changes today, folks. I wish it would, but it won't. The candidates have their base and so these past several elections have actually become pretty predictable.
Of course, the SD's could grow a pair and make a move, but that too seems a hope for another day.
May 6, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge is reporting that the Clinton campaign is bracing itself, as they are expecting a 15+ point blowout win for Obama in NC. They however are expecting to win Indiana.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashnc.htm
May 6, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well if Drudge says so - it must be true.
[gag]
May 6, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd trust Drudge over public comments made by the Clinton campaign any day of the week.
May 6, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
WIth Hillary leaking to Drudge though, this could be another round of the expectations game. Brace for 15, celebrate 10.
May 6, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is like saying you'd rather cuddle with a rattle snake than a cobra.
May 6, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
In this case I agree because it is self-evident.
But watch that - Drudge gets his shit from leaks and the campaign can say anything and he'll post it whole.
So not trusting the Clinton campaign but trusting Drudge is kind of self-defeating here since you don't know where Drudge is coming up with his flashing headline.
May 6, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
She has never really exceeded 44% in any polls in NC, and usually comes in much lower. I would not be surprised by 56/44 Obama in NC. Edwards might pick up a few diehards.
May 6, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Assuming Hillary gets Indiana and Barack gets North Carolina, the Hillary campaign will tout Indiana as the be all/end all of general election bellwether states and North Carolina as simply a state that the demographics were always favorable to Barack therefore it shows nothing (i.e. NC will be insignificant). In other words, nothing changes.
If Barack wins both, then Indiana will have some flaw (too many Starbucks? not enough "real" Democrats? something else?) that will also consign it to insignificance. Nothing changes.
If Hillary wins both, we won't hear the end of it for weeks, but it will not change the delegate math one iota. Again, nothing changes.
May 6, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'm so ready to be done with this and all the endless polling that accompanies it. I'm with you all the way, nothing changes. The only thing that could change is Hillary dropping out, and there's no way that's happening. Why would she? She still thinks she can win. And why wouldn't she? Who's telling her otherwise. Certainly not the media. Not Bill. And if someone does (Richardson), well, we've seen how that goes.
May 6, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
To paraphrase the Edwards post from last night:
Whatever her flaws, and whatever you think of her sincerity and/or motives, she forced a focus on certain issues that has basically vanished with her departure. Such as obliterating Iran, whining about voting systems, and blatant pandering to the blue collar crowd.
May 6, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
And boilermakers - let's never forget the boilermakers.
If that wasn't one of the stupidest stupid politician tricks I've ever seen...
May 6, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
OMG she drinks! Me too!!!
May 6, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a wash, Eric. The results may be similar win percentages - but NC is a substantially bigger state than IN, so Obama should come out ahead in delegates AND popular vote tonight.
May 6, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. We're the 10th largest state, which by one Hillary yardstick makes us important (you know, the "I can win large states" rule) but by another (the "They always vote Republican in the general election" rule") we're unimportant.
I guess after Obama wins here today, we'll have a 2/1 insignificant/significant ratio. (The "black people vote for Obama" rule will come into play).
May 6, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Indiana - and we always vote Republican in the general and we aren't as big as NC - so I guess we are even LESS important than NC. ;-)
May 6, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of like Texas up until this primary.
;)
May 6, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana is the 15th largest, so it's not small potatoes.
May 6, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah ... but the difference between Virginia (12th largest) and Washington (13th), is about 1.3 million people. The difference between 13th and 21st (Minnesota) is 1.3 million. So we're just at the front end of a large pack of states with ten-ish electoral votes.
May 6, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the update on their locations tonight. Not too unexpected but I was almost hoping hillary would be in Charleston, WV for the NEXT BIG GAME CHANGING DO OR DIE primary there next week.
Thansk also for positng the closing times for polls. Based on evrything we're seeing thsi morning, I expect an early call of the North Caolina race soon after 7:30 Eastern, while the Indidan race may drag out since it will be a) close, and b) later counting the the large numbers from the NW where the polls close later.
Momentum for the night should be Obama's. Maybe that is more wishful thinking though.
May 6, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
wasn't clinton just playing up expectations in both states? wouldn't that be a sign she might drop out when it doesn't go her way?
May 6, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like if she's going to stay in the race when she's 150 delegates behind, she'll stay in when she's like 170 behind. At least until the superdelegates jump in.
May 6, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary got slammed pretty hard on the Daily Show on her small town pandering. Especially her newfound country accent ("What is she, Madonna?") and her tendency to deliver speeches from the back of pickup trucks.
May 6, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I blogged about it this morning:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/the-daily-show-panderers-box.php
I was absolutely ROFLMAO. Keith had a great segment on too if you didn't catch it - nobody does snark better than he does!
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/keith-olbermann-nobody-does-it.php
May 6, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the Daily Show did the ultimate -- had her morph into George W. Bush.
Neither hold much truck with elitist "experts."
May 6, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was truly awesome, that was.
May 6, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
But of course the MSM will spin a wash as some giant referendum on Obama, and we'll have to hear about Obama's nonexistent "white problem" and blah blah blah, and no mention of the fact that Hillary will have to win something like 80% of the remaining votes to win.
I can't stand the post-results spin from the idiot talking heads..
May 6, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Many colleges in Indiana and North Carolina are having final exams
today, could hurt Obama turnout:
Barack Obama's campaign has gotten a boost all year by a big youth vote, but in Tuesday's balloting, that powerful force confronts a new challenge: final exams."
Toast.
May 6, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Final exams... you normal have them over the entire week, around 1-2 per day. That leaves plenty of time to vote. I have 3 exams today but thats why i voted early in NC.
May 6, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, did you ever hear of early voting?
God you are so fookin pathetic.
I recall during our primary, one of my friends, who is only 20, had a final. Guess what? She took it, then she drove home to Rockwall from Denton and voted!
Wow!
May 6, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
For about the millionth time, either provide a link to your crap or don't post. Jesus, why do you have to keep getting reminded of this?
I doubt it - I'm sure students can find some time during their day to vote - they have all day and students don't have exams back to back for 12 hours. Really, get a grip.
May 6, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he knows how to post links to anything other than taylor marsh or Hillary's website.
It is really not that hard gottalife. Here is a link you should click on. It'll tell you all you, gotalife, need to know.
http://www.amishrakefight.org/gfy/
May 6, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
If only it did post links.
Instead we get unattributed quotations.
May 6, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
If anything, that means you probably have more free time than normal because after you finish your two hour exam or whatever, you're done for the day.
May 6, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Guys, gotalife is a Hillary supporter so obviously he didn't go to college. All he knows about it he picked up from Animal House and Revenge of the Nerds. He thinks Final Exams take all day to complete.
May 6, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
They'll be too busy hatching a hilarious prank on the Dean to vote for Obama.
May 6, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think he is actually just a dittohead involved with "Operation Chaos."
May 6, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, clearly. But it's more fun to think of him as a real Clinton supporter.
"I dunno guys. All those college kids are probably too busy going on panty raids to vote...could hurt Obama's turnout."
May 6, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
That and he's an insufferable twit. :)
May 6, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for the reminder!
May 6, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
a whining, insufferable twit.
May 6, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Along with toast - eggs or even a healthy cereal will indeed give those students the energy they need to power through those exams and the already record-smashing primary turnout lines we're experiencing here in NC.
Our nation salutes your steadfast dedication to the dietary requirements of our youth, Goatlife :)
May 6, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me, I'll eat anything.
Meheheheh.
May 6, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fairness, yesterday afternoon he posted it could be a "wash", whereas now it is a "near-wash", which is "in effect" a victory for Obama...
I would argue that a split for Obama today is more than a victory "in effect". He will likely increase his pledged delegate lead, and there aren't enough left for HRC to catch him. After today there will be more Supers up for grabs than pledged delegates. HRC's Superdelegate lead is down to about 15 today, and a split today will probably bring out another +1 or 2 Superdels for Obama.
Tomorrow morning this is going to look alot closer to being over.
May 6, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well I agree and said so, inasmuch as the effect is the thing - no?
If it is a "victory in effect," then the effect of the vote is that he wins, so how is this not just a victory?
There's no such thing as a "victory in effect," that's just a victory.
words matter, eric.
May 6, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
You did, I am just operating at the speed of cold molasses this morning.
May 6, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just agreeing with you, love.
We reinforced each other's posts. ;)
May 6, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meant as a reply to das2003, above. Stupid %&^*%*& "in reply to" button....
And, gotalife, give me a break! Final exams??!! That is funny stuff, pal. But you forgot to mention the obvious corrolary: all of Hillary's white working class supporter have to WORK! Between working and taking exams, turnout could be at a record low today in IN!
May 6, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll repeat my predictions from last week:
1. Obama wins NC by 15 pts
2. Clinton wins IN by 3 pts
3. Eric posts about how Clinton's 3 pt Indiana win is decisive, but Obama's 15 pt NC win is really a loss because he needed a bigger landslide.
May 6, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's leaked memo predicts wins in both NC and IN. I'm hitching my wagon to that - it's been the most accurate forecaster yet.
May 6, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've come to expect annoyingly inconclusive results like this, yeah. I do feel like she'll narrowly eke out a win in Indiana.
May 6, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're right, this will be a very good day for Sen. Obama, no matter how the media tries to spin it.
May 6, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
here is my predictions for North Carolina & Indiana.....
Obama will win North Carolina by 17 points
Clinton will win Indiana by 10 points.
Race will Continue......
May 6, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm shocked you're predicting a blowout in NC.
May 6, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clintons wins Indiana by 10 and NC by 2.
These polls do not include the rural voters in NC and they all go to Clinton.
May 6, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
All?
And why is that, gotnolife?
May 6, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The secret weapon, President Bill Clinton.
Making 6 to 9 stops day will pay off for the Clintons.
May 6, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Clinton wins Indiana by 30 and NC by 30...
May 6, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Clinton wins Indiana by 30 and NC by 30...
May 6, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I only hit "send" once, I swear...
May 6, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Winning IN and NC by 30 twice is probably the only chance she's got at this point to catch up in delegates, anyhow.
May 6, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
What on earth are you talking about? Rural blacks go to Clinton? Rural whites aren't included in the polling? Fortunately, PPP breaks down its results by area code - go have a gander. And the NC Secretary of State releases the demographic information on every last early voter, giving us an early impression of where turnout will be strong.
Hillary's going to lose NC by double digits, which is more than her margin in Pennsylvania. She's very likely to win Indiana, but I'd be very surprised if her margin is as large as ten points.
The world isn't conspiring against your candidate - just the electorate.
May 6, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only doubts Clinton is sowing are about her sanity.
May 6, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I gave up my doubts on that score after she said she was dismantling OPEC.
I know she's insane.
May 6, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's insane about it? She will say absolutely anything if it gets her more votes. Same old same old.
May 6, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama is wrong about the gas tax
Think Clinton's plan to suspend the gas tax temporarily is a bad idea? A similar measure in Illinois -- which Obama backed -- seems to have helped consumers."
She clobbered him on the gas tax and Iran. Wright will be in play too.
Big day for Clinton.
May 6, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply |