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Rasmussen: Oregon GOP Senator Only Narrowly Ahead Of Two Dems
A new poll shows another Republican senator just slightly ahead of the opposition, another sign that the Senate GOP will have to seriously play on defense this year.
The new Rasmussen poll of Oregon has two-term Sen. Gordon Smith below 50% against state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Democratic activist Steve Novick:
Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42% Smith (R) 47%, Novick (D) 41%
Smith is a relative GOP moderate who has turned against the Bush Administration on many Iraq-related votes. However, this remains a state that is likely to go Democratic in the Fall, so he'll need quite a few ticket-splitters to get across the finish line.
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Comments (19)
My guess is that he hasn't done enough to turn against the Bush Administration.
May 10, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is not a relative moderate!! This is the theme his campaign rolls out every six years and its bullshit. He is a right winger and needs to go. Just got back from Portland where I spent the day canvassing for Barack. I think Novick is going to take this one.
May 10, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, he has voted for the Republican position 73.3% of the time, this session. That hardly puts him in the class of "maverick," but obviously, he's not a hardliner, either.
Gordon Smith is a fixture in Oregon politics and has been since 1992. He worked his way up the political ladder, is financial well-off, has a strong power base in the traditionally conservative eastern and southern counties. That is how he wins.
Outside agitators busing in to make yak in the uber-liberal PDX areas won't mean squat in the election. If you don't get the outlying counties, which tend from somewhat-conservative (Yamhill) to extremely conservative (Harney), you won't win.
I've never liked G. Smith, but he has spent the last 16 years as an elected official in the state for a reason. Plenty of other people do like him.
Thanks.
mp
May 11, 2008 7:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is the DEM nominee he should carry Oregon easily as evidenced by the new Rasmussen poll where he leads McCain by 14 pts. That will provide positive coattails to the DEM Senate nominee in the state.
Smith has one advantage...money. He has 4-5 million in the bank. But once the DEMS get a nominee they can work on closing that gap. The DSCC will pour millions into this race to make it more competitive as this is one of their best chances of a pickup this November.
May 10, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Smith has several advantages. He is well-known and well-liked. He is personable. He is well-organized politically, with connections reaching into every corner of the state. And, yes, he has plenty of money.
I don't think the Democratic candidate's coattails will mean that much in Oregon. Oregonians have a long history of splitting tickets. Since 1901, one Senate seat has been held Republican 90 years, vs 17 years Democratic; and the other seat has been held Republican 68 years, vs 39 years Democratic. And in the latter case, 12 of those years have been the current tenure of Ron Wyden, also an extremely popular Oregon politician.
If you look at the current Oregon delegation, you have a liberal, formerly a Grey Panther activist, from the Portland area; and a conservative, Mormon millionaire business owner from Eastern Oregon. That about sums up Oregon politics.
They won't throw out the incumbent just because of his party affiliation. You'll have to present them with an alternative that demonstrably overcomes the perceived advantages of the incumbent.
Thanks.
mp
May 11, 2008 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Smith only talks like a moderate during the period prior to elections. He votes like a conservative, both in terms of international affairs (Iraq, etc), and domestic affairs. After we decide whether Merkley or Novick is our candidate, I hope we can get going on finally sending the faux moderate Smith packing.
May 10, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've got a moderate just like that here in Connecticut: Chris Shays.
Prior to the election in 2006, Shays was all for bringing the troops home.
Then he got re-elected, and pretty much immediately reversed his position.
May 10, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen Plutodawg! Smith is NOT a moderate, he just does the bare minimum to try to pretend to be a centrist when election years are coming around the bend.
May 10, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama's coattails pick up this Senate seat!
May 10, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gordy's already running an ad against them, even though we haven't picked his opponent yet, so I guess he's nervous about these numbers. The hilarious part is at the end, where he, the freaking incumbent, says that it's time for a change. I couldn't agree more.
May 10, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is such good news for Oregonians. I'm especially happy because I'm a big Merkley supporter and he's statistically tied with Smith this early on in the race. I really hope Merkley gets the nod because not only do I think he's the most electable candidate in the race, he's also been a very impressive progressive leader here in Oregon. Merkley was able to unite his caucus behind domestic partnerships, payday lending regulation, ethics reform, anti-discrimination legislation and countless environmental bills. He also got Repubs on board with those progressive bills! How many Senators do we have that unite the Dems and bring R's on board with progressive legislation? Those are the kind of Dems we need if we want change.
May 10, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I, too, look forward to Smith's so-called "moderate" label being exposed for the lie that it is. In my view, Steve Novick will run the most energetic and engaging campaign in the Fall and have a very real shot at taking the incumbent down. We'll find out soon enough who our nominee is and then, time for "change" indeed, Mr. Smith.
May 10, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
As others have noted-- Smith is a faux "moderate" come election time, who in reality has voted almost entirely in lockstep with Bush. Similar to McCain, he gets a free pass from the media--in this case, our state's one big paper, the Oregonian, which refers to him as a "maverick," admires his "independent moderate stances on many issues," blah blah.
Once we get the primary over with--and we've got two very fine D. candidates--it will be full steam ahead to get Smith out. I hope the DSCC will indeed pour lots of money here as we can win!
May 10, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Smith, a moderate?? Come on, do your research. That's the image he cultivates. If you examine his record in the state of Oregon and in the Senate, he's no moderate. And he's been lock-step with Bush on nearly everything.
May 10, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Smith is well known for his epiphanies. The first time he ran, he ran as a conservative, backed by the then emerging religious right in Oregon. He lost big time. Then he had an epiphany.
He came back wearing the cloak of a moderate, won and acted like a moderate Republican until the end of the Clinton administration when he had another epiphany.
In 2002, he invited Dick Cheney and Karl Rove down to the Klamath Basin to violate the endangered species act, kill a mess of salmon and win the farm vote. He got re-elected and voted pretty much along the neo-con party line until 2006, when he had another epiphany.
His last come-to-jesus coincided with the massive Republican clock-cleaning and he's been pretending to be against the war in Iraq ever since and otherwise keeping a low profile.
Except for the attack ads he's aiming at his two most likely opponents in the coming election.
May 11, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
All right wingers become "moderates" at election time.
May 11, 2008 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'll just add one more caveat. Smith won election 50-46 and reelection 56-40. In the latter case, he was running against one of Oregon's most well-known Democratic state politicians (currently Oregon Sec'y of State), Bill Bradbury.
People who think this election is going to be a cakewalk are going to have a heck of a post-election hangover.
He only needs one vote more than the other guy. I hope he comes up one vote (or more) short. But, bravado in the face of a strong candidate is foolish.
Thanks.
mp
May 11, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta agree with Michael Powe on this one. Gordo is smart, personable, rich, moderate in his public pronouncements, and he's got world-class hair. His policy ideas and his voting record are miserable, but he comes across as a reasonable person, making a point of working with Senator Wyden when it comes to bringing home the pork to the state. I fervently hope he loses, but I don't think it will happen.
May 11, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Stop Gordon Smith campaign is aggressively exposing Smith’s record. He’s become a vending machine for votes for the special interests and isn’t even honest about his own record. Click here to join the campaign.
May 12, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink