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Rasmussen: Obama Ahead By 12 In Oregon

A new Rasmussen poll of Oregon give Barack Obama a double-digit lead in this May 20 contest:

Obama 51%
Clinton 39%

Sample size: 867 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3%

The internals show a class divide here: Obama does best among upper-income voters, while Clinton does best among those earning less than $40,000 per year.


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Thank you for posting.

Of course you couldn't help digging really deep to come up with something that may or may not be negative.

Nicely done. Full of win!

But don't just read about it... make those calls today, Obama supporters!

Get out the vote in North Carolina and Indiana, and help end this thing!

education education education

It isn't about income, it is about education. Obama does better around people who are educated, more intelligent, Hillary prospers with low-information voters, just like Republicans. You can see this at work with her gax pander scheme/$10 billion handout to oil companies. EVERYONE knows it is a bunch of crap, yet she keeps lying to them, playing them for fools, because she knows (or thinks) they don't know any better. She exploits ignorance, she preys in it, just like a Republican.

THAT is the divide, not income.

Thank you.

BARRY WHOOPS PANTS SUIT IN GUAM !

B. Hussein Obama dominated the Lilo & Stitch vote! After this landslide humiliation HRC MUST drop out right?


HOPE Wright does not CHANGE his mind and open his yap.

Please keep your freeper spamming semi-coherent.

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RenStimpy, you wasted a good one on the wrong post. :-) you shoulda checked the Reader Blogs for all the hot "How come TPM isn't covering the big win in Guam" discussions.

I am an African American female with a Ph.D.and happen to live in the suburbs. I have a small business that provides employment for eighteen employees. I also provide contracts for several vendors.

I support Hillary Clinton wholehearted as the Democratic nominee and if that makes me a low information voter, then so be it.

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Here's one member who appreciates you taking the time to counter that comment.

Consider the first numbers broken down by the Rasmussen article:

Eighty-two percent (82%) say that if Clinton is the nominee, they will vote for her over John McCain in the fall. An identical number, 82%, say they will vote for Obama over McCain.>

Here's the thing: good news is also news. These numbers contradict so much of the divisivness that media and Eric here in this post continue to highlight. And thus, the fact that the party is pretty united in Oregon is news, or, I think, should be.

I was trying to highlight these as well:

Obama is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, Clinton by 71%.

Obama with big lead in Oregon!

(Clinton leads among rodeo clowns between the ages of 32 and 36, and among sweater warehouse managers with incomes between $50 and $60K - troubling numbers for Obama...)

Earning more than $40,000 a year now makes you "upper income"? Please. TPM really is good for a laugh these days.

Yes and according to Charlie Gibson earning $200k puts you in the middle class. So it works well.

Love those numbers!

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The internals show a class divide here: Obama does best among upper-income voters, while Clinton does best among those earning less than $40,000 per year.

Class warfare! Latte! Chablis! Brie! Ummm... I'm running out of hoity-toity French things that Obama wants to force feed the nation, but the point -- since you're obviously missing it -- is that he's nothing but a big, fat, biracial (and by that I mean that he aspires to enslave the white race) Marxist who won't rest until foie gras is on every last school lunch menu.

Have I missed anything?

mmmmm. foie gras.....

Why do you think he does so well in places like Mississippi. All those rich people flocking to the polls, stuffing the ballot.

May 20 is a long time away.

Anything can happen.

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Predictions? (Watch out for those 'typos'.)

It will tighten. Future polls will show Clinton ahead especially after she wins IN and NC.

Fair winds and following seas for Hillary.

You bet! I also heard Santa Claus is going to come 7 months early, tomorrow!

YAY! TOYS!

Those look nice next to the $50 I'd get back (theoretically, and tenuously at best according to EVERY economist) from the gas tax holiday!

What will you guys do if/when Hillary finally gives up this quixotic quest?

Icebergs Ahead!!!!

S'OK, the U.S.S. Obama's already made it through the stormy seas and is ready to battle the GOP Grampy McCain

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"after she wins IN and NC"

Any wagers? How about this: if Clinton wins both I'll take the avatar of your choosing for the rest of the month. If not, you take the avatar of my choosing for the rest of the month? So, you ready back up that claim, or, are you a little... chicken?

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No response? Chirp-chirp!

"Fair winds and following seas for Hillary."

The "fair winds" you're talking about my friend is called flatulence - Hillary is going to get stomped in NC.

"Fair Winds and Following Seas" is what a sailor says as an EPITAPH!, Humanity_Critic

I figured as much, but the flatulence reference still works - hence the posters nonsensical views.

May 02, 2008 9:59 PM

ABC News' Eloise Harper and Sunlen Miller reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., had to endure cheers for Sen. Barack Obama and boos for the North Carolina governor, who has backed her, at the North Carolina Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Raleigh, N.C., Friday evening -- where both she and Obama spoke.

Toward the end of her speech, Clinton pointed out to the crowd that she thinks she is tough, saying to the crowd, “I am no shrinking violet.”

Clinton, attempting to show that there will be party unity, said, “If Sen. Obama is the nominee, you better believe I'll work my heart out for him.”

The crowd erupted into a chant for Obama, leaving Clinton speechless for a few seconds while she waited for them to finish. During her speech, Clinton also mentioned Gov. Mike Easley, who has endorsed her candidacy, and she was momentarily rendered speechless while the crowd booed him.

In his speech, Obama also preached unity, saying that after the nomination process is over, “This party will come together. If Hillary Clinton were the nominee, I would support her in a heartbeat. And I know that if I am the nominee then she will support me.”

But he again criticized Clinton over her support of a national gas tax holiday, suggesting that Clinton is not being honest with the American people about the real savings they would receive under the proposal she backs along with Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee.

"For us to suggest that 30 cents a day for three months is real relief, that that's a real energy policy, means that we are not tackling the problem that has to be tackled," Obama said. "We are offering gimmicks. When we are offering the same thing that John McCain is offering on the cheap, that means that we're not presenting a truthful response to the challenges that we face in America.”

This leads directly to a W-style presidency of cherry-picked audiences and no dissent.

Must be all those blacks and well-educated, high income white folks in Oregon

NOT

This is more an east-west divide than a racial divide.

Given her "natural demographic advantages" (not to mention the fact that she's losing and the clock is running), Oregon is a must win for Hillary. Her campaign must be really panicking over numbers like these.

It will be NC by 12 and IN by 4 for Sen Obama. The early voting and the cosmo/metro areas give him the edge.

Does Rasmussen clarify if that was individual or household income over $40,000? Because if it's household, Obama will have an absolute victory and it won't be close, on pure demography. Oregon's median household income is $46,000+. That means well over half of the state is above that floor.

If it's individual, the median for men is $41,000+ and $32,000+ for women. Either way, Oregon should go overwhelmingly for Obama. The Willammette Valley, which will go for Obama big-time (major universities, high-income and -education economies, lots of ex-Californians), has a higher population than the urban areas of Washington, and he KILLED in Washington.

Well I am guessing this lead is due to the gigantic African American population in Oregon. Thank goodness there are none of those white voters that Obama has so much trouble with living in Oregon. Whew!

****snark****

If that is true then it's over.

We'd love to put Obama over the top, but isn't strange — in every national election since 1952 those who need a progressive Democrat most are among the least likely to vote for one. I guess we can put Hillary in a class with Huey Long and Adam Clayton Powell, among others, as one of those pols who connects with those they are least likely to care about or help.

Don't worry all.

Our gal will close that gap just like she's closing the NC gap! Some polls even have her ahead there.

The more we see of Obama, the worst he looks.

And Hillary gave a lot of people a new glimpse of her on Fox. People are LOVING our gal!

Go Hillary!!

Our FIRST fem president!

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How about you, Rae? You willing to make a prediction that Clinton wins both NC and IA?

But if she loses Indiana it's over, no matter whether she finishes a bit closer in NC than some had thought. In fact, if Obama simply improves in IN compared to OH and PA it falsifies her principle argument to the superdelegates, which wasn't a tremendously strong one to begin with, that low income white voters from the Appalachian region are the only key to the WH.

It's already over. It's just the MSM perpetuation the fiction that she has a chance in order to keep the story alive.

Polls ? Don't you mean POLL? Which incidently came out a few days later with an update that had Obama ahead.
I understand that math and logic isn't a Hillary strength but I thought at least English might work.

Yes, Hillary could be our first female president but she would piss so many people off that she would definitely be the last for a good long time.

You think a lot of people in Oregon watch Fox News? And if they did, that they would be excited about a candidate who says of the rich, "God bless us!" Good luck with that theory...

Obama owns the Pacific Northwest, and that's going to continue on May 20.

Idaho: Obama 79%, Hillary 17%
Washington: Obama 68%, Hillary 31%

Oregon? Stay tuned. It's not going to be close.

Again, a lot more Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama in the GE rather than vice-versa. A worrying trend for the dems

A worrying trend that won't have an actual impact. Those surveys are taken during the bloodiest part of this election. Could a long-term rift between the factions of the party? Absolutely. But only if Hlllary doesn't bow out after the June 2 primaries and insists on dragging us all through the mud to Denver. Otherwise, we will have a united and strong party.

Just got back from canvassing in SE Portland- knocked on 76 doors, many not home but of those we id'ed, 10 were firm Obama, 3 Hillary and several undecided. This was a mixed income, working class/student/bohemianish type neighborhood. Only semi-latte-ish, at best.

FWIW....

Obama HQ abuzz with young staffers and volunteers....

We'll go out again tomorrow.

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Thank you so much for all your work, Ruth! We all owe you, big.

RaeK- That one poll that said that Hillary was ahead in NC was several days ago by Insider Advantage. The next day they had - and still have- Obama leading by five.

That was the only poll that showed her ahead out of what - maybe 12 ?

She ain't gonna win NC. I can tell you that.

And Zogby has up him one in IN today. Word on the ground that momentum for here there has stalled. We shall see.

Don't forget, Oregon uses mail-in voting, and the ballots have already been mailed out to registered voters for their declared party and they can be completed and returned from now until the actual postmark deadline.

I drove over 160 miles yesterday, Portland, Mt Hood, etc, saw more than a hundred yard signs for Obama, and maybe two or three only for Hillary.
This will NOT be a close race!

I agree, this will be a pretty good win for Obama. He will need it given he is going to trounced in KY & WV.

I think IN is going to be a lot closer than people think, maybe even an Obama win. One of the benefits of being a neighboring state to IL is the ground game. A lot of his homestate supporters are flooding IN. I think that was a big reason why he won WI by more than people thought - a massive GOTV effort and a lot of personal contact with his canvassers.
I know several people who have gone - and I live in a Repub suburb of Chi, not to mention a pretty active online community for Obamanites around here that is doing pretty well at getting people to volunteer.

And here is a second. I am a professional, educated at ivy league undergraduate and graduate universities, I have children, and live in the South, earning over $100,000 per year, and I support Hillary Clinton with every fiber in my body. I can't say that I am ready to vote for McCain in the fall, but I have realized that I can't vote for Obama and the painfully divisive coterie that he has implicitly, if not explicitly, encouraged in order to get him where he is today and that feels to me exactly like the gloating, bullying masses who put George W. Bush in the White House in 2000 with the same "delegates trump the people" anti-democratic theory. I, like my spouse, my four siblings, my parents, and so very many friends, have gone from proud and optimistic to nauseous and discouraged thanks to Obama and his threatening, un-Democratic supporters.

As many have said Oregon is NOT a "May 20 contest." Ballots went out May 2. I got mine and voted on May 3. Increasingly (IMHO) Dems vote as early as possible because if you are a registered Dem and you let your ballot sit around on your kitchen table, you will be bombarded by calls from every Dem campaign from president to dogcatcher pleading for your vote. The campaigns know (with a couple days' delay) when you have voted, although of course not for whom you have voted.

BTW I too have some fancy graduate degrees but I don't see the relevance of them to this conversation. It's not like someone is going to win by carrying the Wharton vote.

A few more factoids from Oregon: we continue to (proudly) be the least church-going state in the Union, so the Reverend Wright saga was a bust here. Only the Republicans cared, and they are the irrelevant minority in Oregon.

Also, Obama's cash advantage comes in huge in Oregon, where the ballots are already going out, and the voting will spread across the next two weeks, with a slight bump toward the end. His ads have been running for two weeks already, and they are good - the radio ads, in particular, which are narrated by popular Oregon Demo statesmen, like former Governor Barbara Roberts and Congressman Earl Blumenauer. These endorsement matter.

To make up for her lack of cash, Hillary has made her ridiculous "Oregon debate challenge" (yawn), and is expected to return here for her "high school gym and senior center" tour later this week. But Obama has been filling stadiums here since last summer, and has huge buzz. If anything, the stupidity of the Pennsylvania voter dynamic has only energized Oregon Dems in the Obama camp.

And finally, what to make of Bubba? Right now, the Teamsters are running an independent ad here that is clearly in support of Obama -- it mentions "disastrous wars and policies to export our jobs", and lays the blame at "George Bush AND Bill Clinton"..! So much for the legacy, Bill.

Clinton is running one main ad here in Oregon about how she is a "fighter". This might work in the Rust Belt but I don't think it resonates with Oregonians. Most of the population is in Portland and Eugene, both very liberal and well educated: Obama's demographic. Clinton is trying to appeal to rural Oregon which is for the most part Republican. She's going to get her ass kicked here.

That's a very good point - Oregon's rural outback is very sparsely populated compared to the upper Midwest. About 70 percent of the population lives in the state's six largest urban areas, and fully half right here in the Portland region.

Actually RenStimpy - you eediot! - has let slip a bit of the inner workings of his mind, by talking about the "Lilo and Stitch" vote.

See, that Disney movie is about aliens - those who are far from us, those who are different from us, and those who people like RenStimpy would like to say can never ever belong to us - not really.

The funny thing is, Wikipedia reveals that this movie was originally set in Kansas! But researchers sent to Kawai island by Disney ran into an interesting concept:

While the animation team visited Kauaʻi to research the locale, their tour guide explained the meaning of ʻohana as it applies to extended families. This concept of ʻohana became an important part of the movie. DeBlois recalls:

"No matter where we went, our tour guide seemed to know somebody. He was really the one who explained to us the Hawaiian concept of ʻohana, a sense of family that extends far beyond your immediate relatives. That idea so influenced the story that it became the foundation theme, the thing that causes Stitch to evolve despite what he was created to do, which is destroy."

So we'll take the "Lilo and Stitch" vote, RenStimpy.

We'll take your tired, your poor,your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to us, we lift our lamp beside the golden door.

You are so pwned.

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