« Fossella Friend: He's Planning To Run Again | Home | Obama Gets California Super-Delegate »

Rasmussen: GOP Sen. Dole In Dead Heat Against Democratic Nominee

A new poll finds yet another incumbent Republican Senator facing a tough race, a further indication that the Senate GOP is going up against a rough current this year.

The Rasmussen poll of North Carolina finds Sen. Elizabeth Dole in a dead heat with her Dem challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan, who just won her primary on Tuesday.

Hagan (D) 48%
Dole (R) 47%

Sample size: 500 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%

From the pollster's analysis: "Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year."


39 Comments

| Leave a comment

How he makes those red states blue. The panderer's map is outdated.

"How he makes those red states blue."

Sounds like a song!

;-)

♪♪♪♪

I would give both of them credit for this poll result. Of course, Obama deserves more credit, but Clinton also did a lot of good work in NC.

She did? I havent seen any.

user-pic

Dole has to go. She has no substance.

If an entrenched GOP Senator is in danger in North Carolina, maybe the electoral college votes are in play?? Hard to believe, but ...

Obama puts NC into play. As for Dole, she was and is a weak candidate, and highly ineffective... and Hagan will beat her to a mush. With each passing day, the Jesse Helms bigot vote diminshes. Thanks to high tech and Andy Griffith's efforts, North Carolina is overcoming it's sordid past. Bowles would have beaten Dole in 2002 if not for the fact he could not attack a woman candidate. Now, we have a women's roller derby campaign and Hagan can beat the crap out of Dole without be called sexist, a beating that Dole justly deserves.

user-pic

Isn't Liddy Dole, like, 100 years old?

Not that this should disqualify her. Being a religious right anti-reason and logic loon is what should disqualify her. But I'll take what I can get.

Every time I hear her name or see her, I flash back to the SNL charicature of her, walking around stiffly smiling and saying "praise God, praise God" after every sentence.

user-pic
Not that this should disqualify her. Being a religious right anti-reason and logic loon is what should disqualify her. But I'll take what I can get.

LOL! Best comment so far.

And I second it!

user-pic

Dole has been pretty non-existent in North Carolina and has certainly lost her status as a beloved icon. At the same time, there's no way I'd bet against her right now. It's certainly going to be interesting how she relates herself to Bush and to McCain in her campaign.

Hagen needs to get some quality people around her. Her primary campaign was a mess from the start. She was acting as if she wasn't really that hungry to win and that's got to change.

user-pic

Maybe Dole will actually step foot into NC during the campaign.

There were also a lot of people pretty angry at her vote against S-Chip which lost the state quite a bit of money.

user-pic

It's true that Sen. Dole has ben invisible for six years. The trouble is, Kay Hagen has been in NC all this time and nobody knew it. Candidate Hagen had better get to work.

user-pic

Bob Dole is a fairly decent fellow with stromg right tenencies. Elizabeth Dole is a knee-jerk winger.

Sorta parallels another political family in the news.

Obama will only help the DEM in NC by being on top of the ticket! Record turnout!

user-pic

Bowles lost because he ran a lousy, half-*%#ed campaign.

Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, Clinton 45%

Clinton and Obama outpoll McCain in general election matchups

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the second consecutive day, Barack Obama maintains a slight advantage over Hillary Clinton in Democratic nomination preferences, 49% to 45%, according to May 8-10 Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Some experts expected the race would dramatically turn in Obama's favor following the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. His decisive win in North Carolina and Clinton's narrow victory in Indiana made her odds of overcoming Obama's delegate lead longer, and his nomination seem inevitable. Since then, Obama has received a number of superdelegate endorsements to overtake Clinton on that count, but perhaps not the flood of endorsements some predicted. His support among the party rank and file as measured by Gallup Poll Daily tracking has also picked up nationally in recent days, though his four percentage point advantage does not attain statistical significance.

As a result, neither candidate has held a significant lead since Obama did so just prior to the Pennsylvania primaries in late April. Clinton last held a lead in mid-March.

In the latest general election polling among registered voters, both Democrats hold slight advantages over likely Republican nominee John McCain -- Obama 47%, McCain 44% and Clinton 48%, McCain 44%. -- Jeff Jones

May you prevail in your quest for a point. The race was over after Super Tuesday. It's no longer about her.

Or you, for that matter,

Pax,
M.

60 votes in the Senate seemed like a dream not so long ago. Once Sen Clinton concedes, the rallying around the winner will be deafaning, particularly to GOP attacks. I see Mitt Romney is out on his Sour Grapes Tour, still thinking it's about him.

Two words: Down-ticket Appeal. That may actually be three words...

Liddy Dole being in trouble is not surprising, but it's a huge pickup. Cornyn in Texas or McConnell in KY....now THAT would be an ousting!

I look forward to a 50-state campaign, and I like the idea of Obama debating McCain in open, unmoderated forums.

Pax,
M.

user-pic
I look forward to a 50-state campaign, and I like the idea of Obama debating McCain in open, unmoderated forums.

Yep. I'm wondering if the McCain campaign might already regret floating that idea. The speed with which the Obama campaign responded would give me pause, were I a McCain supporter, because it suggests that the Obama campaign thinks he'll trounce McSame in an open forum.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0508/Second_McCain_aide_quits_over_DCI_ties.html

May 11, 2008

Second McCain aide quits over DCI ties

The second McCain aide in as many days has left the campaign over ties to a public relations firm that once represented the Burmese junta.

Doug Davenport, one of McCain's 11 regional campaign managers, quit his post today, said a McCain spokeswoman in response to an inquiry.

"Doug has tendered his resignation and we have accepted it," wrote Jill Hazelbaker in an e-mail.

She said Davenport quit this morning for the same reason that spurred McCain's hand-picked convention manager to resign yesterday: connections to the DCI Group.

As reported yesterday by Newsweek, the Republican-heavy p.r. firm was on retainer for the repressive regime in Burma in 2002.

Doug Goodyear, who would have been McCain's man at the St. Paul convention, was the target of Michael Isikoff's story.

But the report also put immense pressure on Davenport, who had run DCI's lobbying practice before signing on with McCain last month to run Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Kentucky and West Virginia for McCain.

Hillary explains why she would be the stronger candidate against McCain.

what else you got? "dewey explains why he would be a stronger candidate against truman"?

Did you even look at the video. When you do, you will feel rather sheepish for spouting off without first having watched it.

Well played, sir.

Saw that posted to AMERICAblog earlier today, and I got a chuckle out of it. How quickly they turned on her!

Poli Sci grads:
2008 has all the markings of a realigning election year.

So, if a certain TPM poster and his wife were to host a "Barack, Bev, and Kay" fundraising house party in Apex, NC this summer or fall - how many of you folks would attend?

It is SOOOOOO nice to see the potential for the statewide and federal Dem tickets to be mutually beneficial in 2008. That has never happened in my conscious lifetime (I'm 34).

If we could take North Carolina away from the GOP it would cripple the party for half a decade. Losing such a big Southern state? Nixon and Goldwater would spin in their graves!

Why would Goldwater spin in his grave? I'm pretty darn sure he lost North Carolina (one of the more moderate Southern states) in his 1964 campaign.

Just FYI - Down here in Texas - the winds of change are also blowing - jOHN Cornyn faces a credible and professional democratic candidate Congressman Noeriga . Noriega is ex mil , well funded , and well recieved - whereas Cornyn is not popular , wedded at the hip to the neocons ,and bUSHCHENEY, and not raising near the money expected .. .
And just as an example of how Texas could be in play this next cycle - I have my own charter service here in Austin - I was recently driving a school prinicpal and five teachers from Midland Odessa to our airport . Unsolicited the conversation turned to the elections and all six of these forever Republican ladies said they were sick of all the neo cons , NCLB , Iraq, and the gop scandals and all six had voted for Obama in the primary .When I asked if they would vote democratic down ticket in the general all six said yes !
Cornyn is in deep trouble ya'll !

user-pic

Music, sweet music!

I caught her act on Tim Russert just before the 2006 election tsunami, and she was gleefully predicting how the Republicans were going to do so well and all. Then she broadly suggested that the Democrats were not only content to lose the Iraq war but were also comfortable with turning the region into a "breeding ground for terrorists". Tim Russert just about jumped out of his chair trying to shut her up, and Rahm Emanuel seemed like he wanted to strangle her while she went on to impugn Democrats' patriotism. She said Iraq was on the right track, moving to Democracy, and she supported Rumsfeld (after the Army Times called for his removal) and naturally Bush. She chirpily defended the race-baiting ad against Senate candidate Ford in Tennessee, and volunteered in that grating voice of hers that her party would win the Virginia Senate race and keep the Senate.

I do like her husband, but I thought the foregoing was a hideous thing to watch, worse on the TV screen than in print. http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2006/11/emanuel_on_meet_the_press_gets.html

This is one annoying big mouth who won't be missed.

I remember that one... I wanted to smack her. She would not shut up and kept talking over everyone and interrupting. You could almost see Karl Rove's hand moving her mouth. 'Now whatever you do, don't let them talk. Keep yammering even if you don't have anything to say, just keep them from being able to make any points'. Sadly it worked in the interview, but I guess we showed them that it didn't work so well in Nov. I would be beyond happy if she lost. It would also send one of many messages that we are done with this kind of politics.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly year for repubs. I think people are fed-up more than polls show and they have had it with the repubs who have a) run this country into the ground for their personal gain b) tout moral superiority while every other day there is a new scandal of some sort coming to light and c) despite not being listed as the top concern and the waning news coverage, Iraq is a slow-burn in the American conciousness that they blame the Republicans for. While there are many things that contributed to HRC's loss, I do believe she may very well have won had it not been for her war vote. The American public has not forgiven her for that.

I am also not as worried as some about the Presidential in Nov. It is close now but McCain has been enjoying a post-nomination bump and the dems have been beating each other bloody. Signs are pointing to McCain support ebbing and come Nov, between turnout and anti-repub sentiment, this will be a dem year. Of course anything can happen and Obama will have his work cut out for him, certainly it will be a challenge but I think it is really McCain that has the uphill battle.

Of course Bush won in '04 so who knows... maybe the repubs will figure out a way to win and maybe the dems will do something colossally stupid. Wouldn't be the first time...

user-pic

I think there's even more than that. People vote their pocketbooks, and the economy is on hard times for some people. Barring a major change in the political landscape, Democrats will really put the hurt on Republicans this November.

Could be the cliche perfect storm.

1. Generic Dem vs Repub polls give a big advantage to Democrats at the presidential and congressional level.

2. Record Democratic registrations thanks to Obama's appeal to the young and the vigorous primary campaigns.

3. Peace and prosperity definitely working against the incumbents.

4. McCain's 100% anti-abortion record, on the wrong side of health care and housing crisis, and not a particularly effective campaigner.

5. McCain can't get away from the Bush League. World's. Worst. President.

user-pic
"Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year."
From just the list of May polls on TPM's tracking page:

OR-SEN May 10 Rasmussen
Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42%

OR-SEN May 10 Rasmussen
Smith (R) 47%, Novick (D) 41%

TX-SEN May 8 Research 2000
Cornyn (R) 48%, Noriega (D) 44%

GA-SEN May 8 Rasmussen
Chambliss (R) 51%, Cardwell (D) 37%

NH-SEN May 5 Univ. of NH
Shaheen (D) 52%, Sununu (R) 40%

TX-SEN May 5 Rasmussen
Cornyn (R) 47%, Noriega (D) 43%

MN-SEN May 2 SurveyUSA
Coleman (R) 52%, Franken (D) 42%

When Norm Coleman is one of the 'safest' incumbent Republican Senator in a competitive race, you know you have problems.

CO, NM and VA are also looking good for the Dems. This is shaping up to be a perfect storm year for the Republicans. When they're having trouble in Texas and North Carolina you know it's bad.

The enthusiasm for Obama in Colorado is electric. The dem convention will be here and it seems to have had the effect of tipping fence sitters over to the dem side. Meanwhile, Hillary is toxic.

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address