Polls this far out meen nothing.

The general election hasn't even started yet, wait until after the conventions before putting too much faith in any polls.

Speaking of the convention, is anyone going to be offering tours of Larry Craig's bathroom in the Mineapolis airport for all those Gooper going to the GOP convention? They should.

You are hopeless.

I mean hopeless.

The day Gallup and Rasmussen decide the nomination is the day I never participate in this process again.

FWIW, there are some polls out showing Obama ahead in other swing states, if TPM cares to list those.

Reading the Florida numbers alone shows that these polls are nonsense. Florida is fools' gold. McCain will win Florida in a walk.

PA goes Dem no matter what. Big f-ing deal.

Clinton's only real argument is over Ohio. I would posit that her weakness in WI, MN, IA, OR, WA, VA, and CO outweighs that significantly.

But by all means, if drawing to an inside straight (i.e., 2000 and 2004 Dem strategy) is your preferred way to win the White House, then by all means, back Hillary and pray for OH and FL again. I'll take the map changer, thanks very much.

Boy, that poll is lousy news for McCain. Up only 1 point over Obama in Florida? Yikes.

Eric I will give you 100 dollars if you can show me that state by state polls of the general election have any predictive power when taken 6 months before the election while a contested primary is still going on.

Come one, I'm serious 100 bucks.

Either you are giving us useful information or something that is as useful as each candidates horoscopes. If it is the latter I would kindly ask that you cease and desist from insulting our intelligence one day further.

Yeah, like having no nominee to actually force people to choose with a little more forethought isn't affecting the polls, which this far out mean about the same as the ones showing HRC 25% ahead nationally at the beginning of the primary.

What are you & Greg going to do when it becomes official that Obama is the nominee?

How will you go on?

You both have so much invested in HRC that a pivot to Obama isn't going to be taken as genuine by most people on here.

How is it that I can't tell Josh's preference even though I know he was a big Clinton supporter at one time?

It's a shame you two weren't able to do the same.

I think these polls actually undermine her argument. Her argument is that he can't win these states and the polling clearly shows that he can, along with others that he puts in play and she does not. Obama has been receiving a sustained kitchen sink attack from his Rep opponent and from a fellow Dem and looks to be in fine position at this point. I expect a bounce after he secures the nomination and Hillary repairs some of the damage done by the bitter primary. We have a very strong case to make for Dem leadership in the WH and there's no reason not to be confident that we will see movement in Obama's direction when we shift the focus to making that case. The poll data needn't be accompanied by Hillary's spin on it. As Marshall says of McCain's expectations regarding his "100 years" statements, no candidate has ever received that kind of special treatment.

A) They are both strong in PA according to this poll
B) Obama has never campaigned in Florida, yet is nearly tied with McCain
C) Obama is basically tied with McCain in Ohio now, and I'm sure he can easily pull ahead when he isn't fighting attacks from both sides, and
D) These are just a few polls of many, others have shown Hillary losing all of these states to McCain, and Obama doing much better than Hillary, so this doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot

And how are we supposed to win in November if we lose states like Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc, as poll after poll show Hillary is likely to do? Screw swing states, Hillary can't carry half of our blue states according to the polls. But no, that is never an issue, only Obama.

Oh, these are states that "matter," right? I see.

Too bad California doesn't matter, since Obama now leads Clinton there even though she won the primary.

And what's with all this focus on these head-to-heads with McSame when there are two Dem candidates? When we're in the middle of an increasingly bitter primary season, these numbers are bound to be way off, since an overwhelming majority of Clinton's supporters now will back Barack against CrazyTrain.

Even with this fun little hypothetical game, Obama is basically within the margin of error in FL and OH, which is extremely encouraging and surprising.

Of course, she will win.

Do you deserve great leaders like Senator Clinton?

No, you don't. You drank the kool aid and will run a sure loser.

You get what you voter for, do don't whine when mcwar wins.

It will be your fault.

All that matters are the United States Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. The rest of them are all Red States or just full of blacks and latte sippers.

Thanks to all the commenters above who bring some perspective to EC's editorial laziness [no context given for the whole electoral map, just a cherry picked three states], if not bias [oh, please let's look at Clinton again, everybody] in presenting useless GE polls at this time.

Why these numbers shouldn't be cause for concern for Obama supporters or persuasive to superdelegates (and in line with many of the comments above):

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/why-are-you-stumbling-why-cant.php

Keep in midn that Hillary's conventional 18 state strategy means she must win two of these. Obama might only need one, since he'll pick up Washington, Oregon, possibly Colorado, and maybe even Virginia.

So he can lose in two of the three and still win.

How long will the media keep persisting in calling the old swing states "crucial swing states" despite the fact that Obama's swing states are likely to be different?

Nice arbitrary selection of states called swing.

If you have 268 electoral votes a swing state is the next state you win to go over the top. New Mexico, Nevada and Michigan equals Florida. Missouri and Minnesota equals Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Virgina are a greater prize than Ohio.

It borders on innumeracy to consistently pick FL, OH, and PA out of 50 states and 13-15 states worth 140-160 EVs that poll fairly closely and then spend 80% of the time discussing the "key" swing states worth only 40-45% of the battleground delegates. I don't know if it's laziness or east coast bias or what but the focus on PA, OH, and FL as THE swing states makes no mathematical sense.

The 2000 election didn't turn on Florida. It turned on ANY 3 EVs that could have flipped from Bush to Gore.

And all other things being equal, it's better to have 6 10 delegate states as toss-ups instead of 3 20 delegate states. Randomly you are going to get more fair outcomes splitting the 6 states then with the big chunk of the three states going slightly one way or the other.

Ohio is a sucker bet for the Dems. It's like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. Each time he thinks it's going to be different. Each time Ohio votes Republican.

The point behind these numbers is obviously lost on most people, including got no life, so I guess I'll just have to make it for you.

Remember way back when HRC was winning all those "important" states like New Jersey and California on Super Tuesday. How all the opinion polls showed McCain winning against Barry? Oh noes, said the punditz, Barry haz a cracker problem. What will he does to win teh crackerz? All those polls in OH, PA and FL that put him 10 points behind McCain... remember those? And those crack rock loving fools who actually thought McCain could win California?

Yeah, well about that..

Well, seems that despite the hissy fit shit storm that HRC is throwing at him, all the 'LOOK AT TEH SCARY NEGROE WHITE PPL!' nonsense, his numbers have actually IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY in these states. Barry's at the same point right now where Kerry was going into October in most of these places. By the way, last I looked at a calendar, it's May.

This is why HRC is not winning over a tidal wave of super dels. Because they see Barry's about to pull even with her in the supers count, and they have basic math skills and can see that despite her fearmongering about how crackers will vote for her and not Barry, it's a big stinking pile of bullshit and smells bad.

One more month Hill. Enjoy the trail. It's coming to an end.

The momentum shift *is* palpable, but it will fade, like it always has. Obama has dealt well enough with Rev. Wright to put it behind him. Some people will never vote for Hillary, and some will never vote for Obama. That's life.

What is also clear is that for the super-delegates to overrule the elected delegates, Obama's support has to *collapse*. And despite all the spin, doing better in PA than expected for all of this season except for the last 4 days isn't a collapse -- he did well here against amazing demographic odds. Getting a majority of the delegates in TX isn't a collapse. He may lose a few percent in IN and NC due to the proximity of the Wright flap to the election, or perhaps not, but that, too, isn't a collapse.

And he'll beat McCain, as well. McCain has all the energy level of Bob Dole in '96, but without Dole's genuine wit and intelligence.

Wow... Obama is competitive in all those states, and would win in Pennsylvania!

... and he'd also win in Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and maybe even in the Carolinas and a few midwest states!

Too bad Hillary can't say that... ;-)