« Mason-Dixon: Obama Seven Points Ahead In North Carolina | Home | Obama Campaign Moving Joe Andrew All Over Indiana Today »

Quinnipiac: Hillary Runs Stronger Than Obama Against McCain In Big Three Swing States

A new batch of polls from Quinnipiac University lends weight to Hillary Clinton's argument that she's more electable against McCain than Obama -- it finds that she handily beats McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama only wins in one of the three:

Florida
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Sample: 1,411 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%

Sample: 1,127 Ohio voters. Margin of error: ±2.9%.

Pennsylvania
Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38%

Sample: 1,494 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.5%.

On the bright side for Obama, his showings in Florida and Pennsylvania have improved since the last poll from a month ago. However, Hillary is still outperforming him in all three states.


64 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

Polls this far out meen nothing.

The general election hasn't even started yet, wait until after the conventions before putting too much faith in any polls.

Speaking of the convention, is anyone going to be offering tours of Larry Craig's bathroom in the Mineapolis airport for all those Gooper going to the GOP convention? They should.

Oh, brother, another Clinton talking point from Eric?

You do know they called McGovern superman and had buttons like your picture except George was standing there don't you?

You want to lose.

I'm guessing you've never watched Firefly.

user-pic

You are hopeless.


I mean hopeless.

Im surprised hes doing so well in Florida... Ive always sort of assumed he would lose Florida, but make up for it in places like Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, etc...

Thats the problem with Hillary. She needs to win all three of these states. Obama could do fine winning only one out of three.

Yes, what I find remarkable about these polls is that Obama beats McCain in PA, but is only one point away from him in Florida and Ohio. And this is a bad thing how? Sure doesn't fit the "white people are running from him in droves" narrative that was blaring all over MSNBC yesterday.

The day Gallup and Rasmussen decide the nomination is the day I never participate in this process again.

FWIW, there are some polls out showing Obama ahead in other swing states, if TPM cares to list those.

user-pic

Good thing Obama outperforms Hillary in other likely swing states such as Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, and New Mexico. And good thing he puts other states like the Dakotas, Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska in play. And it's great that he has an outside shot at states like Georgia, Mississippi, and even Arizona.

LOL.

Reading the Florida numbers alone shows that these polls are nonsense. Florida is fools' gold. McCain will win Florida in a walk.

PA goes Dem no matter what. Big f-ing deal.

Clinton's only real argument is over Ohio. I would posit that her weakness in WI, MN, IA, OR, WA, VA, and CO outweighs that significantly.

But by all means, if drawing to an inside straight (i.e., 2000 and 2004 Dem strategy) is your preferred way to win the White House, then by all means, back Hillary and pray for OH and FL again. I'll take the map changer, thanks very much.

And without 90% of the AA vote (which Kerry & Gore got), Clinton loses OHIO.

The AA vote in OHIO will be more important this time around than at any other time.

And without Ken Blackwell playing funny games, Ohio is favored for a Dem this time.

She's polling at 55% in the AA vote against McCain!

She doesn't come CLOSE to winning OHIO with numbers like that, let along the presidency.

No one ever talks about why she isn't getting the AA vote, only why Obama is have a problem with ONE segment of the white vote. ONE SEGMENT, not the entire race.

user-pic

She would also be favored in Arkansas, where Obama has little or no chance.

Still, the general election outlook is at worst a wash.

While I agree with Nisleib that polls this far out are necessarily unreliable, I have to say that those outcomes seem altogether quite plausible to my mind, and actually somewhat encouraging to an Obama supporter like myself. If we simply held on to PA, we would be doing pretty well. I am still unconvinced that either democrat would win FL, although I am not surprised that Clinton would do better than Obama there. Meanwhile, FL+PA+OH add up to 68 electoral votes. Obama is running much more strongly than Clinton in MN, WI, IA, CO, MI, WA and OR. Those states together add up to 71 electoral votes. Unless you think that 5 twenty dollar bills are worth more than 21 five dolar bills, you would be ill advised to focus too much on just a few big states.

Quit reading my mind, damn it!

Perhaps there is a benefit to the long primary season. Obama certainly leaves Pennsylvania and Ohio with better numbers than when he arrived.

user-pic

Boy, that poll is lousy news for McCain. Up only 1 point over Obama in Florida? Yikes.

A poll!


Holy Crap!! I'm changing my vote! Oh wait, the Primary Season is basically over.

Eric I will give you 100 dollars if you can show me that state by state polls of the general election have any predictive power when taken 6 months before the election while a contested primary is still going on.

Come one, I'm serious 100 bucks.

Either you are giving us useful information or something that is as useful as each candidates horoscopes. If it is the latter I would kindly ask that you cease and desist from insulting our intelligence one day further.

I'm actually surprised he's so competitive in Florida. I'm pretty ready to write the state off this November, even though we should still make an effort there.

Yeah, like having no nominee to actually force people to choose with a little more forethought isn't affecting the polls, which this far out mean about the same as the ones showing HRC 25% ahead nationally at the beginning of the primary.

What are you & Greg going to do when it becomes official that Obama is the nominee?

How will you go on?

You both have so much invested in HRC that a pivot to Obama isn't going to be taken as genuine by most people on here.

How is it that I can't tell Josh's preference even though I know he was a big Clinton supporter at one time?

It's a shame you two weren't able to do the same.

She wouldn't win Ohio, bogus polls notwithstanding.
Black turnout would be way down compared to 2004, and that would kill her.

Agreed, if she steals this, all the Crown Royal drinking in the world will not get her elected in any of these states without the African American vote.

You got it! See my post above. She only get 55% of the AA vote against McCain...

I think these polls actually undermine her argument. Her argument is that he can't win these states and the polling clearly shows that he can, along with others that he puts in play and she does not. Obama has been receiving a sustained kitchen sink attack from his Rep opponent and from a fellow Dem and looks to be in fine position at this point. I expect a bounce after he secures the nomination and Hillary repairs some of the damage done by the bitter primary. We have a very strong case to make for Dem leadership in the WH and there's no reason not to be confident that we will see movement in Obama's direction when we shift the focus to making that case. The poll data needn't be accompanied by Hillary's spin on it. As Marshall says of McCain's expectations regarding his "100 years" statements, no candidate has ever received that kind of special treatment.

I am actually really pleased with these results. I think after some head to head campaigning.... Obama could make a run at ALL THREE of these states!

yayyyyyy!

GOOD NEWS!

YES.
HE.
CAN.

No, mcwar will win those States but lets run Obama anyway.

A) They are both strong in PA according to this poll
B) Obama has never campaigned in Florida, yet is nearly tied with McCain
C) Obama is basically tied with McCain in Ohio now, and I'm sure he can easily pull ahead when he isn't fighting attacks from both sides, and
D) These are just a few polls of many, others have shown Hillary losing all of these states to McCain, and Obama doing much better than Hillary, so this doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot

And how are we supposed to win in November if we lose states like Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc, as poll after poll show Hillary is likely to do? Screw swing states, Hillary can't carry half of our blue states according to the polls. But no, that is never an issue, only Obama.

user-pic

Oh, these are states that "matter," right? I see.

Too bad California doesn't matter, since Obama now leads Clinton there even though she won the primary.

And what's with all this focus on these head-to-heads with McSame when there are two Dem candidates? When we're in the middle of an increasingly bitter primary season, these numbers are bound to be way off, since an overwhelming majority of Clinton's supporters now will back Barack against CrazyTrain.

Even with this fun little hypothetical game, Obama is basically within the margin of error in FL and OH, which is extremely encouraging and surprising.


user-pic

Also check out New Jersey, where a Monmouth University/Gannett poll (April 24-28) shows Obama leading 45-38, in a state that Clinton won on Super Tuesday by 10 points.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--presidentialpoll-0430apr30,0,5458012.story

When Obama voters start to show buyer's remorse, then I'll begin to begin to worry. Until then, I'm not sweating it.

Of course, she will win.

Do you deserve great leaders like Senator Clinton?

No, you don't. You drank the kool aid and will run a sure loser.

You get what you voter for, do don't whine when mcwar wins.

It will be your fault.

No one deserves a "leader" like Hillary Clinton. She'd be a disaster for this country (and the world).

It sounds like you've accepted the hemlock and are bowing out with a bitter taste in your mouth.

Suck it up, fool.

Say Obama gets the nomination...as a stalwart Democrat, and staunch anti-war advocate, you will be out there campaigning strong for him, right?

user-pic

Oh lord, you've suddenly convinced me!

As a matter of fact, you've convinced everyone! They are running a story on you in the AP right now, about how your hard work trolling TPM has changed minds and made the world a better place that runs on rainbows and puppy kisses instead of fosile fuels.

Check it out:

http://www.amishrakefight.org/gfy/

At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law against myself, that's pretty much exactly what Hitler said about the Germans before he ate that last bullet--the German people are unworthy of my genius.

All that matters are the United States Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. The rest of them are all Red States or just full of blacks and latte sippers.

Don't forget us elitists.

Oops, I guess latte drinkers were code for elitists! I haven't had my latte yet!

You can only be an elitist if you own at least 5 suits.

It also helps to be half-black, with a name given to you by an absent muslim father that looks like it was borrowed from the FBI's most wanted list.

Sure, clutch you silk pillow and try and deny it!

Why bother?
These numbers are useless.
Look at them after Hillary is eliminated.

These polls are meaningless for a variety of reasons.

1) It's too far out, and the campaigning for the general election, when strategies will shift, hasn't even started yet.

2) Running mates have not been picked yet (as far as I know), and could sway some voters one way or another.

3) There are other key swing states you aren't including that Obama is (and always has) outperforming both McCain and Clinton.

So, while I'm sure you felt it necessary to post this information, it's really not relevant (yet). Come back in 5 months when full-on campaigning has begun and running mates have been picked, and THEN maybe will these polls be relevant.

GOOD POLL and good news for hillary ...

Of course, she will win.

Do you deserve great leaders like Senator Clinton?

No, you don't. You drank the kool aid and will run a sure loser.

You get what you voter for, do don't whine when mcwar wins.

It will be your fault.
Posted by gotalife
May 1, 2008 11:05 AM |

==============================================

Gotalife,

Are you all right? Did you really type that, or did your cats crawl over your keyboard?

user-pic

Thanks to all the commenters above who bring some perspective to EC's editorial laziness [no context given for the whole electoral map, just a cherry picked three states], if not bias [oh, please let's look at Clinton again, everybody] in presenting useless GE polls at this time.

Welcome to Talking about Polls Memo!

Why these numbers shouldn't be cause for concern for Obama supporters or persuasive to superdelegates (and in line with many of the comments above):


http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/why-are-you-stumbling-why-cant.php

user-pic

Is it me or do these numbers look pretty great for Obama? I'm as pessimistic as it comes, but I see this as good news:

1) It's the weakest point in Obama's campaign, and the strongest for McCain

2) PA is safe Dem

3) FL is a statistical tie and Obama's never campaigned or organized there

4) It doesn't take into account all the other states (WI, CO, MN, IA, NM, VA) that Obama either secures for Dems or puts into play.

That's actually reason for optimism.

Trifling significance

Keep in midn that Hillary's conventional 18 state strategy means she must win two of these. Obama might only need one, since he'll pick up Washington, Oregon, possibly Colorado, and maybe even Virginia.

So he can lose in two of the three and still win.


How long will the media keep persisting in calling the old swing states "crucial swing states" despite the fact that Obama's swing states are likely to be different?

user-pic

Washington and Oregon are not pick-ups but must-holds, and Clinton would put them in play for McCain.

The vicious Clinton-versus-Obama rupture at Daily Kos, the most activist site in the liberal blogosphere, reflects a party-wide split. What really rankles, as Democrats tear at one another, is the free pass they’ve given McCain—and the White House.

When Democrats Go Post-al

(ht talkLeft)

We all need to read this. If we see ourselves in this article, we are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

user-pic

Nice arbitrary selection of states called swing.

If you have 268 electoral votes a swing state is the next state you win to go over the top. New Mexico, Nevada and Michigan equals Florida. Missouri and Minnesota equals Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Virgina are a greater prize than Ohio.

It borders on innumeracy to consistently pick FL, OH, and PA out of 50 states and 13-15 states worth 140-160 EVs that poll fairly closely and then spend 80% of the time discussing the "key" swing states worth only 40-45% of the battleground delegates. I don't know if it's laziness or east coast bias or what but the focus on PA, OH, and FL as THE swing states makes no mathematical sense.

The 2000 election didn't turn on Florida. It turned on ANY 3 EVs that could have flipped from Bush to Gore.

And all other things being equal, it's better to have 6 10 delegate states as toss-ups instead of 3 20 delegate states. Randomly you are going to get more fair outcomes splitting the 6 states then with the big chunk of the three states going slightly one way or the other.

The momentum shift to Hillary is palpable. The only question is whether it's too little too late. Well, not the only question. How the heck do you get those Reverend Wright bumper stickers off your car? I've tried scraping and laquer removers, but it just seems to stick and won't come off.

Ohio is a sucker bet for the Dems. It's like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. Each time he thinks it's going to be different. Each time Ohio votes Republican.

"Magnequench" Hillary has been exposed once again for lying her pantsuited arse off about who approved of the sale of that Indiana Business to China.

Bill Clinton was the one that signed off on the deal, and Hillary has been trying to pin the blame on Bush.
Hillary has told bald faced lies to the working class people of Indiana.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/v-print/story/35337.html

Posted on Wed, Apr. 30, 2008
Clinton blasts Bush for not stopping a project Bill OK'd
Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted by liam

What a waste of space. As others have written, these numbers are meaningless this far out. Why are they wasting time and server space putting them up? I'll toss in an extra $10 on that $100 offer above.

The point behind these numbers is obviously lost on most people, including got no life, so I guess I'll just have to make it for you.

Remember way back when HRC was winning all those "important" states like New Jersey and California on Super Tuesday. How all the opinion polls showed McCain winning against Barry? Oh noes, said the punditz, Barry haz a cracker problem. What will he does to win teh crackerz? All those polls in OH, PA and FL that put him 10 points behind McCain... remember those? And those crack rock loving fools who actually thought McCain could win California?

Yeah, well about that..

Well, seems that despite the hissy fit shit storm that HRC is throwing at him, all the 'LOOK AT TEH SCARY NEGROE WHITE PPL!' nonsense, his numbers have actually IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY in these states. Barry's at the same point right now where Kerry was going into October in most of these places. By the way, last I looked at a calendar, it's May.

This is why HRC is not winning over a tidal wave of super dels. Because they see Barry's about to pull even with her in the supers count, and they have basic math skills and can see that despite her fearmongering about how crackers will vote for her and not Barry, it's a big stinking pile of bullshit and smells bad.

One more month Hill. Enjoy the trail. It's coming to an end.

user-pic

The momentum shift *is* palpable, but it will fade, like it always has. Obama has dealt well enough with Rev. Wright to put it behind him. Some people will never vote for Hillary, and some will never vote for Obama. That's life.

What is also clear is that for the super-delegates to overrule the elected delegates, Obama's support has to *collapse*. And despite all the spin, doing better in PA than expected for all of this season except for the last 4 days isn't a collapse -- he did well here against amazing demographic odds. Getting a majority of the delegates in TX isn't a collapse. He may lose a few percent in IN and NC due to the proximity of the Wright flap to the election, or perhaps not, but that, too, isn't a collapse.

And he'll beat McCain, as well. McCain has all the energy level of Bob Dole in '96, but without Dole's genuine wit and intelligence.

Pretty good for Obama in FL considering he hasn't campaigned there at all.

Obama '08

Wow... Obama is competitive in all those states, and would win in Pennsylvania!

... and he'd also win in Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and maybe even in the Carolinas and a few midwest states!

Too bad Hillary can't say that... ;-)

...and Missouri!

Leave a comment

Recommended Reader Posts

  • Unwritten...
    by stillidealistic
  • Two Dreamers, by Dorothea Lange
    by Rutabaga Ridgepole
  • Tsunami Wave: Will Wipe Out Republican Party
    by coonsey
  • OBVIOUSLY, YOU AREN'T A HUNTER.....
    by wvbiker
  • The Stupack Amendment played politics with women's lives and won.
    by J. Clarence
  • holly colorado
    by blumun
  • figures geometry
    by muberul
  • short stories
    by lumacer
  • elemtary school
    by luborum



  • Resources

    The Palin Effect

    GOP Map Of Sleaze

    Tire Swinging

    The Final Debate

    World of Sleaze

    All About Sarah

    The Presidential Debates: Round 2

    The Vice-Presidential Debates: Biden v. Palin

    Critic or Cheerleader The Definitive McCain Iraq Timeline

    The John McCain John Hagee Timeline

    Masthead

    Editor-in-Chief
    Josh Marshall

    Reporter-Bloggers
    Elana Schor
    Eric Kleefeld



    Subscribe to this blog's feed.

    Advertise Liberally
    Share
    Close Social Web Email

    "To" Email Address

    Your Name

    Your Email Address