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Polls Give Obama Big Lead In Oregon
With the Oregon primary a week away, two new polls show Obama holding a commanding lead:
Portland Tribune
Obama 55%
Clinton 35%Sample size: 400 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4.8%.SurveyUSA
Obama 54%
Clinton 43%Sample size: 615 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.
The Obama camp expects that on May 20, they shall have secured a majority of pledged delegates for the whole cycle.
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To: Oregon
From: Hillary
Subject: You don't count
Sorry.
HRC
May 13, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
To: Oregon
From: Terry McAuliffe
Subject: You don't even exist
___________________________________
Terry McAuliffe hasn't even mentioned Oregon in talking about the upcoming primaries. It's all about WV and Kentucky.
You mean there's a primary in Oregon?
May 13, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton 2008 HQ relies on a tattered map dated 1858 which doesn't include Oregon. It explains most of their overall strategy, actually.
May 13, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
1858? Golly, who's gonna secede first?
May 13, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
oh, haw haw haw, ain't the city slickers precious, denigrating Oregon and Oregonians like that. . .
it's just plumb cuter than a bugs ear!
actually Oregon is awash in Presidential material, Bill and John, Barry and Hill, all them big time folks actually took out a map and found a Blue State!
you don't understand, this is the first time that Oregon is actually asked and counted as part of the Union and the process you just take for granted in your big Eastern States. What did we ever do to YOU that you can just flick us off like a piece of lint near your American flag lapel pin? don't you believe in a DEMOCRACY??
May 13, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're missing the snark…
May 13, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm dissing Terry McAuliffe and the Clinton campaign, not Oregon, you twit.
May 13, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Hillary is having trouble with the middle-class, college-educated, and African American votes. What does it mean???
May 13, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Her support among these constituencies seems to have been slipping from day one. This is obviously a very troubling development for her candidacy and is something that the supers should really think long and hard about before making a decision.
(As snark, this is probably too subtle, but what the heck.)
May 13, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not too subtle at all.
Perhaps you should e-mail it to the talking political hairdoes at CNN, MSNBC, and Fox.
Well, not Fox.
In any event, I'm really concerned that Clinton is losing the educated vote, and no one talks about that. What am I? Chopped liver?
May 13, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is a reason no one talks about it:
she can't win.
No one asks Ron Paul why he can't win the moderate Republican vote.
May 13, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
What does it say that a Wellesley graduate can't get the college-educated vote?
May 13, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Delicious :)
May 13, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
To: middle-class, college-educated, and African American votes
From: Hillary Clinton '08
Subject: "You dont matter, coz I will rely on my blue collar working class WHITE voters."
Signed:H.Clinton
May 13, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Sasquatch.
Hillary is polling absolutely dreadful in the Bigfoot constituency.
May 13, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those elitist, latte-drinking, Volvo-driving Bigfoots....bunch of eggheads, I tell you.
May 13, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just a reminder, and sorry to beat this dead horse, but the Oregon primary started back on May 2 when we received our ballots. May 20 is when the votes have to be in, and when they are counted. Like a take-home exam.
If anyone can find out anything reliable about who is being polled -- is it really "likely" voters only? Or do some or all polls include those who have voted? -- that would be helpful.
May 13, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curiosity question for Oregon voters: Is there still actual old-fashioned pull the lever voting on election day (or fill in the dot or whatever)available as an option or is all voting done via the mail-in method?
May 13, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curiosity question for Oregon voters: Is there still actual old-fashioned pull the lever voting on election day (or fill in the dot or whatever)available as an option or is all voting done via the mail-in method?
100% mail. No polling places.
May 13, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been an Oregonian since 2005, and I must say that voting by mail is most wonderful way to vote.
For those that don't live here, imagine having two weeks to fill out your ballot. And spending that time researching each measure and candidate on the internet as you vote. No rushing. No lines. No polls closing. No shortage of ballots. A paper trail.
I heard recently that Oregon had around 86% of its registered voters vote.
Just amazing.
May 13, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to both of you for the info. Sounds like a great system that should be implemented nationally.
May 13, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! And I've never met a single Oregonian who's said they wished we voted some other way. People here LOVE Vote by Mail.
May 13, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
follow up question...so what is May 20th? Is it the deadline to have the votes in the mail? The deadline for them to be received? When do they count them? Are we going to get a result on May 20th?
May 13, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ballots must be received by 8 pm May 20. According to the Oregon Secretary of State's website, counting begins on "election day." First results will be released at 8 pm, with updates following until all votes have been counted.
By the way, as of end of day Sunday, May 11, 13% of Oregon's 2 million registered voters had returned their ballots. Updates available by clicking here.
May 13, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that is a key point. The ballots must be RECEIVED by the Election office by 8PM on election day (i.e. May 20th). So if you are an Oregon voter and haven't mailed it before 48 hours prior to election day, you need to instead drop it off at one of the numerous of drop off points and/or election offices before 8PM on the 20th.
May 13, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't 100% accurate.
You can still vote at any election office. This is for people who either do not have a mailing address or didn't receive their ballot in the mail, or it was lost, damaged, etc.
May 13, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Hillary but there's no bonus credit...
You should have studied harder earlier in the term...
May 13, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyway, we know the egg-heads and latte-sippers will all go for McCain in the general election...
May 13, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
And aren't there working, hard-working Americans, white Americans in Oregon? Or do they all work for universities and well-known Oregonian hedge funds??
Why does the media believe all the "hard-working white Americans" live in Appalachia?
May 13, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think a lot of them are Latte sipping Trust fund babies. No hard working white folks to be found.
May 13, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, lots of hard-working white voters, but they aren't bitter like Hillary's rust-belt voters and they don't go to fire-and-brimstone churches and they don't talk funny and they aren't afraid of books.
May 13, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. I guess you're not familiar with the part of Oregon I grew up in. :)
May 13, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry, Hillary fans: even though she's lost the support of all the loyal Dem constituencies, she's still got the Reagan "Democrats" who'll vote for McCain even if she's the nominee. That shows the supers she's the only candidate who can win, or something.
May 13, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this is a "big" lead, what is Hillary's win in WV today going to be labeled as?
May 13, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
A win in WV.
May 13, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given that these are "big" leads, Clinton's win should be described as monumental.
Or, as gotalife said last week in a different context, "a thumpin'"
May 13, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
A big win in a small state. The kind she has already labeled "insignificant." With a 70% win she nets 12 delegates today. I bet Obama halves that with supers tomorrow.
May 13, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's close to halving it "Today"
4 Supers announced today
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
May 13, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's gonna be blowout city, baby! A real 360 degree slam-jam-bammer! Hillary's only hope is that WV gets some coverage on ESPN2! Maybe they'll send the fourth announcing team to cover the game, baby!
May 13, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dick? Is that you? Step away from the microphone, Dick. Limit that caffeine intake as well...
May 13, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ummmm I would call her win in WV irrelevant... since the nomination is statistically locked up.
And I am so tired of people using sports analogies.
It is NOT a football game where Obama has 50 and CLinton has 30 with 2 minutes to go. That is still a mathematical possibility. 4 touchedowns would be a mriacle but it would happen.
This is like a BOWLING game... and Barack Obama has bowled a 250... and the highest possible score Clinton can receive is a 220. She is welcome to finish the game but she can not and will not win. However, she also should not kick Obama in the knee so he can't bowl his game against McCain.
It's time to retire to the bowling alley bar and throw back more of those shots you liked so much in Indiana.
And Clinton will NEVER get the VP slot... she blew that opportunity long ago.
May 13, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow... That's crazy. I was mocking the sports analogy thing while you were writing about how stupid the sports analogy thing is. DemDave, are you my soulmate?
May 13, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
i'm laughing while typing this and was laughing while reading what you people have posted.... its funny..... you are buying into the news media.
People it ain't over.......... how many times have they said it was over for Hillary...... how many times has she been the come back kid.
it is not going to be over until all contestes are finished..... don't forget that obama still needs 148 delegates to finish the race and he has to hope that between know and June 3, none of them switch sides like they did with clinton.....
the super delegates have the last say.....
its all going to depend on these last states and puerto rico as to who the winner is.
If hillary some how pulls off a popular vote win with or without florida and michigan.....the super delegates are going to back her..... can't afford to go against the will of the people.....
if obama can keep the popular vote, after all contestes are finished.... he is the winner because all pleaged and super delegates will line up around him.
pleaged delegates and super delegates aren't forced to back one person over the other, they can change there minds.
Hillary is gong to win huge in west virigina and kentucky...... look for some major changes within the democratic party.:)
May 13, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Still delusional, I see.
It's really sad.
May 13, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Already happening, though probably not in the way you're thinking. It's funny that you associate a Clinton win with party change, though.
May 13, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep dreaming, sweetie.
May 13, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
"how many times has she been the come back kid."
Uh, as of today, exactly 0 times. You're confusing Hillary Clinton with Bill Clinton. You Hillary supporters do that sometimes.
May 13, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hahahaha, I thought my snark was subtle. This is superb! Really, hats off to you HillaryClinton08 for the best parody of Hillary supporters yet. (/me Wipes tears of laughter from eyes)
May 13, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, you really like ellipses, don't you? ;)
Poor thing. You may be the most out-of-touch Hillary supporter here, and I feel badly for you. You're right; the supers do have the last say and they are swarming - that's right, swarming - to Obama and abandoning her. Even a pledged delegate defected to his camp today (which I personally do NOT agree with). It's over; she really cannot do it. He's going to shut her down on May 20th and no number of Clinton victories from now until kingdom come is going to change that.
May 13, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well as long as you are in the mood for a laugh check out this reenactment of Hillary and her staff after North Carolina.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Lstkiexhc
May 13, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife, is this you? Anyway, one point I'd like to make is that, in fact, HRC's only real 'comeback' was NH. Even there, she's been behind in delegates that were voted for the entire campaign. In all other cases, she's either lost delegates (e.g. SC, NC, and Super TU) or already been mathematically eliminated, she just doesn't know it. And meanwhile, she's taking valuable money from the GE for the nominee and the DNC. What happens when she starts hitting up all those donors for $20M to cover her losses? Since her donors are tapped out, she's got to find new ones, and they could be helping us elect a Democratic president instead...alas.
May 13, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's mean. HC08 does not attack Obama. I think that deserves respect.
May 13, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can respect your enthusiasm for your candidate and your frustration at the media's insistence that Obama has won when there are state primaries still to be contested.
My question for you is what are you going to do if/when Obama does clinch the nomination? When all the primaries have voted and the super delegates push him over the 2025 delegates needed to win? Will you support the Democratic party and vote for Obama in November?
May 13, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, actually, Hillary has never been 'the comeback kid'. That is just a worn out phrase that her campaign is using to hope to trick folks into ignoring the reality of the race since the Iowa contest.
Can you point to any time since the actual Democratic primary contests began in Iowa when she 'came back' to be ahead of Obama in pledged delegates?
One of these days, you might even want to stop kidding yourself with this comeback kid nonsense.
May 13, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't let them bring you down, HillaryClinton08. I appreciate your sunny optimism even when it seems her winning is against all odds.
May 13, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. I'm sexually arounsed, counselor.
May 13, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did she just say "contestes"?
Hee hee!
May 13, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad there are just not enough people in the Democratic party who love the dead and maimed bodies that Hillary Clinton's vote to authorize the Iraq War has given us. How truly sad that they instead choose to support someone with the foresight and courage to opposed the doomed war from the start.
Cry me a river.
May 13, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
i'm laughing while typing this and was laughing while reading what you people have posted
Make sure you don't laugh your way to insanity. Just saying but keep up the spirit though, lauging is a good defense mechanism. GL.
May 13, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
we have won. congratulations to all obamaholics. we really are gonna get our power. fuck yeah!
May 13, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate those eggheads and their latte sipping. They are always latte for everything, too busy reeding books, papers and the internets and not enuff time watching American Idle on the TV.
May 13, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A little OT, but has anybody seen this website? It's a hoot:
http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/
Pretty funny stuff!
Al Giordano from The Field, who's been pretty dead-on for most of the primaries, has predicted a 20-8 delegate split (69%-31%) in WV, which will net Clinton 12 delegates. I am sure that Obama has more supers up his sleeve to roll out tomorrow, which will completely neutralize her WV win. And as another poster pointed out, the media is saying "well, even with a WV win it's not going to matter", so I don't know how much traction Clinton will get out of this.
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1186
May 13, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Twelve delegates! That's awesome, baby! Sensational! She's a real PTPer!
May 13, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny thing about that Survey USA poll.
Supposedly 43% of those polled have already voted. Among them Obama's lead is just 1% 49-48.
Maybe that's a sign that Hillary's voters are more likely to actually send in their ballots, cause they want to save her campaign.
May 13, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I fully expect Hillary to look like the cat that swallowed the canary this evening, Obama's trying to make it a non-story, which it is. And the coverage is starting to reflect that. I expect the turnout will be low in KY and WV, but similarly worry about low turnout in OR. Make those calls!
May 13, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two more:
The chairwoman of the D.C. Democratic Party and Roy Romer, former governor of Colorado.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Two_more_supers.html
May 13, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Add on Ray Nagin mayor of New Orleans and Joe Donnelly (IN) for 4 supers and 1 pledged delegates so far today.
Total delegate swing so far today Obama +6. (Obama +5 Clinton -1)
May 13, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
That would be pretty amazing if, by the end of the day, he gains as many delegates as she does even with her big win in WV.
May 13, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to DemConWatch, he's picked up 4 today (not including the defection of the pledged delegate Jack Johnson):
Rep. Joe Donnelly (IN)
Ray Nagin (LA)
Roy Romer (CO)
DNC Anita Bonds (DC)
So even if Hillary picks up 12 delegates in WV he's already cut it down to 8 (or 7 if you count Jack Johnson's defection).
YES! WE! CAN! ;)
May 13, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not that I support said defection, but it actually has the net effect of 2, since it also takes one away from Hillary.
May 13, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are correct, dear friend! And I call myself a programmer - yeesh!!! I think I need some remedial math courses LOL! ;)
May 13, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's OK. Off-by-one errors are to be expected. ;)
May 13, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary can have ALLLLLL the pleaged delegates that are available, HillaryClinton08. Barack Obama, however, is going to win pledged delegates, superdelegates, popular vote, and most states won.
And please...whatever you are smoking... send some my way. I am having a rough day at work.
However, I am having a GREAT day on the internet celebrating Barack Obama's impending election to the Presidency!
May 13, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be mean. HillarClinton08 has been consistently nice to everyone on these threads. So, she spelled something wrong. Oh well.
May 13, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll second this. She seems like a sweet person, and we should treat her with at least the same respect that she treats us.
May 13, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thirded.
Sorry to use the tired sports analogies, but Clinton supporters and Obama supporters are on the same team, we just want different Quarterbacks (sorta like the Chargers from a few years ago, some wanted Brees, some wanted Rivers, but we ALL wanted the Chargers to win).
I think that Obama's win in inevitable at this point, but there's also no point to abuse Hillary's supporters that have been passionate about their support.
Gotalife, on the other hand...
May 13, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fourthed. (Is that even a word?)
HillaryClinton08 has always been positive. S/he has never called Obama supporters kool-aid drinkers, idiots, naive, Hitler-youth, or any of the other charming adjectives hurled at Obama supporters.
My only quibble with HillaryClinton08 is excessive use of exclamation points.
May 13, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
And ellipses LOL!
May 13, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, I actually picture HillaryClinton08 as one of my best friends that's been working tirelessly on Clinton's campaign since last July, so go easy on this poster folks...
May 13, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Academically, black children at 17 perform no better than a white 13-year old." Economist, May 10, p. 29. Considering that American children generally perform poorly compared to children in any other industrialized democracy, this is telling.
and p.30: "... studiousness is stigmatised among baclk children. It would be hard to imagine a more crippling cultural norm."
and " "... when the bar is lowered for black applicants to law school, they are admitted to institutions where they cannot cope."
May 13, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Move on, nothing to see here.
May 13, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless you like getting a look into the abyss.
May 13, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to today's Wall Street Journal, "Yilla doesn't realize that we can click the link to its name and see that it is only posting the same nonsensical garbage over and over."
Not only that, but according to Peter Jackson's movie adaptation of The Lord of the Rings, during recent polling when asked about Yilla, 90% of respondents selected "We hates it. We hates it forever."
May 13, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
The funniest part of your post is that you are criticizing the education level and studiousness of AAs, yet you incorrectly spell a simple one syllable word.
Priceless.
May 13, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh, the ole (sic) attack: you mispelled a word! You're an idiot! pretty obviously a typo on my part, and pretty obviously a pretty lame response on your part. At the end of the day, it's clear affirmative action is a terrible policy, that produces under-achieving hacks.
May 14, 2008 3:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
And thus the paradoxical condition of being one's own father is writ large for all to see.
May 13, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
The worst part is that men get affirmative action now too, so Obama is a double affirmative action baby.
OMFGBBQ!11111
May 13, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great to see these numbers in Oregon. Obama lawn signs are popping up everywhere, I have seen exactly one Hillary sign in a lawn. Also saw one illegally placed on the median strip, but oh well.
I read somewhere that Obama and the Clintons are coming back to Oregon this weekend, haven't heard the details yet. Obama could easily fill our basketball stadium here in Portland, I hope he does a big rally here as well as smaller events thru-out the state.
Go Obama!
May 13, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife - where are you? We have to stay vigilant on this post!
Ok - not panicking - I can handle this on my own - here goes:
This is total kool aid! Just because Obama is ahead does not mean he is leading! He is no better than Mcshame - I mean McSame! ...uh. Natural disasters! There is no hope!
Phew - nailed it.
May 13, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Close, but not bitter enough.
May 13, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Queen will win WV today and KY and will upset in Oregon too. Then what will you do.
May 13, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
I'll catch a ride to Heaven on my flying pig because Hell just froze over...
(too many mixed metaphors?)
May 13, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's ALL O-VER!
BOOM,BOOM, BOOM, BOOM, BOOM!
May 13, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I might light myself on fire! Or quit playing jazz flute!
May 13, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 13, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey TPM, your blockquote system is all fugged up.
1st part is Kefa, 2nd part is my reply.
In the words of Yosemite Sam, &*%&^$%^*&()&*!
May 13, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Hilary gets big wins in W. Va and Ky. Obama gets a big win in Oregon....sounds to me like most of those undereducated, racist, poor white voters that Hilary calls her base are indeed in Appalachia. And most of whom will ultimately vote for a Republican no matter who he is.
May 13, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the problem with internet blogging... I was honestly just teasing HillaryClinton08. Good lord I spell things incorrectly on here all the time in my haste to post!
Peace and love!
But no CLINTON VP!
May 13, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a clarification that there ARE ballot drop-off boxes at various locations so the procrastinators can still get theirs in by the 5/20 8 p.m. deadline.
Ruth in OR, you do know that Obama did have a huge rally here in Portland awhile back? (That was the day Bill Richardson endorsed him.) It didn't take long for the tickets to be snapped up.
Once upon a time I was a "pink collar" worker, and ended up a single mom when my son was just a baby. Found a way to go back to school, get a college degree and work my way up in a professional field until I could finally afford those lattes. Now I seem to have landed squarely in the camp of those non-president-needing boutique "elitists" worthy of Clinton scorn.
May 13, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yet another reason to love living in the People's Republic of Portland!
May 13, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate polls, but I like the sounds of this one. Go Obama! I'm even thinking about his VP's...
http://indepthleft.blogspot.com/2008/05/and-nominees-are.html
Detailed analysis.
May 13, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink