Poll: Two Major Republican Incumbents In Serious Danger -- In Alaska!
Now this is really something. New polling shows that not one but two scandal-plagued incumbent Republicans are seriously in danger of losing their seats -- and to top it off, both are in a state that has historically been a GOP stronghold, Alaska.
The two GOPers in question are TPMmuckraker all-stars: Sen. Ted Stevens, who is at the center of a corruption investigation; and Rep. Don Young, whose potential involvement in the Coconut Road earmark has landed him in the hotseat. Both are trailing their Dem challengers.
From the new polls commissioned by Daily Kos, and conducted by the non-partisan firm Research 2000:
Senate
Begich (D) 48%
Stevens (R) 43%House
Berkowitz (D) 50%
Young (R) 40%Sample size: 600 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.
Democrats have not won a federal race in Alaska since 1974, when Mike Gravel was elected to a second term in the Senate. But it's looking like this could be a big year indeed.















This is welcome news from the internet tubes.
May 15, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I'm not mistaken, there's a dance remix of that somewhere on Youtube...
May 15, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...it's a...it's a series of... tubes!"
Thhhhoooomp.
I think there will be much to celebrate on November 5.
Holy crap! Stevens has been in the Senate for 40 years! How awesome that his Senate career might end because he finally loses his seat!
I'm hoping the U.S. Senator for Texas loses his seat this November. It's so close I can taste it.....Mmmmmm. Yummy.
May 15, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh no! What will become of the Internets tubes if we lose Ted Stevens?!?
May 15, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
They will be on a bridge to nowhere.
May 15, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
They will be filled with dump trucks... or something.
May 15, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Picking up both seats would be huge.
May 15, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
but who's gonna make sure the tubes dont get clogged?
May 15, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope it continues, but more than that let's hold the dems do something with it -not politics as usual.
May 15, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The times, they are a changin'....
May 15, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just now on MSNBC Chris Matthews just blew up a Republican talk radio host. Matthews asked him who was the senator whom Bush quoted today in Israel and what did this senator do to be call an appeaser. The Republican pundit didnt know and spent 5 min going in circles. Matthews told him he is talking bs
and told him not to talk about things you dont know.
It was hilarious.
It was reminiscent of what Matthews did to that BO surrogate from TX.
May 15, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah people who don't know what they are talking about just embarrass themselves when they speak. That idiot should be ashamed of himself for having no idea what it was that Chamberlain did to be called an appeaser.
The "senator" you mention was Arthur Neville Chamberlain a British Conservative politician and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1937 to 1940.
Chamberlain's legacy is marked by his policy regarding the appeasement of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany with his signing of the Munich Agreement in 1938, conceding part of Czechoslovakia to Hitler.
May 16, 2008 1:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please, Alaska, vote Dem. That will be two more congressmen not willing to decimate ANWAR.
May 15, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mwah-ha-ha-ha! Ex-cellent!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YGN09hTdqM
May 15, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Research 2000, eh?
Sounds so futuristic!
May 15, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
(snot bubble)
May 15, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I said a couple of threads back, but even more appropriate for this post:
The 2008 election is a snowmobile racing across the tundra and then suddenly it flips over, pinning the GOP underneath. At night, the ice weasels come.
May 15, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
*Adjusting my American flag lapel pin, placing my hand over my heart*
"May God bless the ice weasels and may God bless the United States of America!"
-
Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 15, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
i thought that was love.
May 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
that was supposed to be in reply to Jenn.
May 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, this time it's the 2008 election.
May 15, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe the GOP didn't try to ease these guys out somehow and replace them with new Repubs. No one likes a criminal for a rep, even if it is a conservative state.
May 15, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this is where the Obama Effect will help out greatly!:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/05/obama-effect-alaska-edition.html
May 15, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
all competitive elections in states that Obama won overwhelmingly?
Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alaska. just coincidence?
May 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe. I think it's mostly widespread disgust with Republicans. Bush/Rove/Cheney/Rumsfeld destroyed the Republican brand.
May 15, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love coattails.
and I love the smell of Repugs going down in flames in the morning. It smells like Victory!
May 15, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Tena! You're from Texas, aren't you?? I hope you're right about coat tails.
Check out this website's map that uses current polling for U.S. Senate races:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/May15-s.html
I just know Rick Noriega is going to take John BoxTurtle Cornyn's seat. Yes!!
This is a great website to check every couple of days. The polling information is frequently updated, and I love the way the data are presented. Check out the cool electoral vote maps showing the matchups for Obama v McCain and Hillary v McCain. The numbers look great, and the general election campaigning hasn't even really started yet!
John McCain's going to be toast no matter who the Democratic Party nominates.
May 15, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw these polls earlier and was wondering why people weren't screaming about this at the top of their lungs. Unbelievable. Amazing. Makes me want to believe in karma.
May 15, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talk about burying the lead.....
Obama and McCain are in a statistical deadheat in the poll.
May 15, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really a statistical dead heat. It means that the "true" poll results vary from
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 38%
to
McCain (R) 45%, Obama (D) 46%
While it's "possible" that McCain and Obama are running at a dead heat, it's equally "possible" that McCain is fifteen points up on Obama.
Quite frankly, though, fifteen points is closer than I expected Obama to run in Alaska.
May 15, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is my happiness face! :/)
INQUIRY: Is there any truth to the rumor that both Young and Stevens are begging the RNC to run ads linking them to Obama and Reverend Wright?
May 15, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tow races that would be helped by Obama at the top of the ticket and hurt with Clinton at the top of the ticket.
May 15, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
More trouble in the land of "change we deserve":
From "Head of State"
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/05/change-that-you-deserve.html
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The Change That You Deserve
From the Chicago Tribune:
Black Screen.
Fade into:
Scene of a thin grey haired man standing in a green field. Behind him we can see the sun is rising.
"I got the change I deserved with GOP."
Cut to a small child, in a sun dress, who looks up at him and smiles.
"I was tired, listless. I had lost interest in my usual activities--creating false attacks, acting as if I had been unfairly attacked about issues created out of whole cloth, drawing specious historical parallels, fawning over ideologically bankrupt manufactured father figures. Sure, I sent emails claiming that Obama was a Muslim, but somehow...it had lost the spark, the enjoyment of everyday life."
Cut to a child who rides by on a bicycle, and throws a newspaper on the front porch.
"That's when I found GOP."
Cut to man rowing in a scull across a still river. He turns to the camera, smiles.
"In clinical studies, GOP has been found to increase aggressiveness in the absence of actual provocation in 8 out of 10 users. In most users, the desire to gleefully attack returns in 1 week. Full enthusiasm for invented ideas in two. "
Cut to image of porch swing.
"With GOP, my attention to minor distractions fully returned, until I was again building them into major accusations of flawed character. Once again, my intense focus on pins, buttons, sentences fragments and remote relationships as absolute indications of personal virtue and ability was at its peak. For an entire weekend, I could one again choose the right moment to accuse a candidate of treason without cause--when I was ready, when the time felt right".
Cut to a series of blurred images: long, stringy haired teens in torn jeans and ironic 80's t-shirts lounging by the Washington Monument; picture of John Kerry in a Swift Boat during Vietnam;
Eiffel Tower. Arugula on plate. During these images, rapid voiceover in female voice:
"GOP may cause monosyllabism, inability to consider two differing concepts at the same time, memory loss or inaccurate recall of recently and repeatedly presented intelligence information, focus on size of automobiles or koro, sequential nicknaming, knowing mischaracterization, hooting. If you have a desire to read the collected works of Ann Coulter that lasts longer than four hours, this may be a sign of a dangerous condition and you should contact your physician immediately."
Cut back to man standing in field. American flag waving in the distance behind him, below a risen sun. A woman walks up beside him, puts her arm around him, and smiles.
Man:
"So get the change that you deserve. Talk to your Doctor about GOP. Soon, you'll be walking by the homeless on the street again and saying "Let them get a job!"
Or better yet--let them get GOP."
Woman smiles.
Fade.
Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/05/change-that-you-deserve.html
May 15, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If your GOPer lasts more than 4 hours, please see your doctor!
May 16, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
My personal theory is that any state McCain is under 50% is up for grabs. My accompanying theory is that you can add about 5pts on for Obama in those states for turnout and post nomination bounce (which McCain already has). You can also add a couple of extra bonus points in states that Obama won, particularly those west of the Mississippi.
I think there are going to be a lot more states in play than people think. Obama will lose the deep south and states like OK, WV, KY but otherwise I think he has a fighting chance in red/swing states everywhere else.
May 15, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes... we are going to see an epic landslide.
May 16, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get too excited about the Young vs. Berkowitz numbers. It's likely that Young won't even be the Republican candidate. He has to beat Sean Parnell, our squeaky-clean, Uber-Christian Lieutenant Governor. He has Governor Palin's endorsement, and Palin--who is already very popular--just announced a plan to give every man, woman and child in Alaska $100 a month towards fuel expenses. Young is toast, but I don't think the Democrats are going to win that seat.
Stevens vs. Begich is more interesting, and I think that the outcome will depend on future developments in the corruption probe. If nothing new crops up between now and then, I would expect Stevens to keep his seat. Never overestimate the Alaskan voter.
May 16, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "senator" was a Republican isolationist from Idaho. Neville Chamberlain was the Prime Minister of England.
Also, speaking of appeasers, let's take the gloves off about W.'s grandfather,Sen. Prescott Bush, an appeaser, isolationist and traitor for his role in the attempted coup d'etat against FDR. The apple does not fall far from the tree.
May 16, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
if Obama campaigns in Alaska i believe he can win the state.
the question is does he want to waste time doing that? it would make more sense to spend those extra resources in a state like Ohio. 3 electoral votes are not worth the time.
May 16, 2008 7:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
well, once in law school I brought my pet monkey Thurgood with me to class, but I dressed him up in a little suit and tie. It was really cute : )
anyway, that same day famous Critical Race Studies "scholar" Derrick Bell was visiting the school. So about two dozen people come up and say "welcome Professor Bell." And when Thurgood would start jabbering away, it would take about two to three minutes before people realized, hey! That's not Derrick Bell, that a monkey in a suit!
May 16, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stevens going "down the tubes!"?
Rather, down VIA the tubes!
Muckrakers, rejoice!
Your work has been rewarded... Alaskans are waking up, and TPM had a big hand in that awakening.
...anyone who denies this blog and its host and staff were fearlessly instrumental in uncovering those sneaky weasels (minks?), hasn't been paying attention.
But be careful if one of them shows up at your door, Josh, you may get bit!
Might want to re-up your tetanus shots.
Maybe consider a rabies series, too... from the looks of Young's latest pics, he's certifiably MAD!
May 16, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink