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Poll: Obama Has Big Lead In Montana Primary

Barack Obama might end up able to claim a pair of resounding victories in the final primaries of the cycle, if a new Mason-Dixon poll of Montana -- the first major poll of the state's June 3 primary -- is any indication:

Obama 52%
Clinton 35%

Sample Size: 400 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±5%

Obama previously led in a poll for the South Dakota primary, which is also on June 3. Should the two leads both hold up, he will be able to close out the primary season on a high note.


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Montana and South Dakota do not count. Only Puerto Rico counts.

lol. I will miss you when this is all finally over.

montana always goes republican.
maybe you can explain why you think that this is an important victory.

Kenucky always goes Republican -- maybe you can explain why that was an important victory for Clinton.

Tell that to Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester.

No, it's not an important victory. Winning one state or another doesn't matter at all, merely how many delegates you amass in the process. And, Montana and South Dakota should put Obama over the edge to 2026. And that is important.

This from the campaign hyping up Puerto Rico's primary...

And, of course, Puerto Rico cannot vote in the GE.

I suppose Mars counts too, right?

No, Mars has caucuses.

Mars doesn't count--no Americans there.

Also: red state.

HA! Red planet! Silly me!

Democrats abroad?

WOW MONTANA! That's another 3 electoral votes that Obama will never get. Compared to the 20 he'll never get in Ohio, the 27 he'll never get in Florida, and the combined 30 that he'll never get from Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky.

If you think Hillary would win Tennessee or Kentucky, I want some of what you're smoking.

Bill Clinton won Kentucky and Tennessee, but you must have been on drugs at the time.

Both states have become decidedly red since then. Or have you not been paying attention?

You say "he'll never get" with an unusual degree of certainty. In light of Sen. Clinton's recent public statements, as well as her repeated invocation of June, 1968, throughout this campaign, I have to ask:

Are you privvy to a strategy her supporters are considering . . . a real Nuclear Option . . . that we may not be aware of (outside of our darkest fears, I mean)? You see, from this moment on whenever I hear a Clintonista such as yourself proclaiming, with great authority, that Senator Obama will never make it to the White House, or even the nomination . . . well . . . I have to wonder what's up.

Or are you, like your candidate, merely articulating the desires of "working, hard-working, White Americans"?

Just wondering.

And accoring to Clinton-rules Puerto Rico doesn't really count because it is only good for more delegates, and they don't count.

No, wait a minute...it's the popular vote that counts now. Nevermind that the Puerto Rican population contributing to the popular vote totals in the primary won't actually vote in the general election.

It is all so clear, that is if everyone would just clean the shit out of their eyes and look at the election through the HRC's distorted lenses.

Nevermind that the Puerto Rican population contributing to the popular vote totals in the primary won't actually vote in the general election.

Puerto Rico will deliver as many Electoral Votes to the Democratic Nominee this November as Montana: Zero.

Kind of like Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oklahoma won't deliver any electoral votes. HRC ran so strong in those states; real landslides for her meaningless popular vote argument.

and similar to ID, UT, KS and a swath of other states that haven't gone blue since 1964.

Yes, but Obama's path to the nomination doesn't rely on convincing superdelegates that popular vote counts and hypothetical outcomes in battleground states that would achieve an electoral victory in the general matter more than the outcomes of the agreed upon primary process. It is delegates that matter. Obama has won the most. Game, set, match.

And given Clinton's stellar strategy-planning in the primary I don't see how she merits a benefit-of-the-doubt, second-chance on a crafting a winning general election strategy. She has not run a very smart campaign to date, so where is the evidence that her general election campaign would be any different? I guess she might have some of Obama's staff on board...that might help.

Bill Clinton won Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee and Arkansas and so would Hillary. Obama has absolutely no chance.

That was 12 years ago, in the previous century.

States like Kentucky, W. VA and Tennessee, are gone with the wind, for the Dems, electorally.

Oh, hang on, I meant to say that KY,WV, and OK represent the real victories to butress her argument that she can put together a stronger electoral map strategy against McCain.

Or wait, is it the combination of her electoral map strategy with the popular vote totals, and of course counting votes in Michigan when Obama wasn't on the ballot that makes it all so clear that her electoral map and popular vote arguments make sense.

It is so clear.

Funny thing is, we don't hear about this in the MSM (that she's winning states that Dems don't win in general elections), yet when the same thing was happening with McCain (he was winning solidly blue GE states), we heard it all the time. Now, who has a problem with the news coverage of herself? Seems they're giving her a break on this one.

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With a few more super delegates and his expected wins in Montana and South Dakota, and picking up a few delegates in Puerto Rico, Obama might just close out the nomination process on June 3. Of course, Hillary will take the fight to the convention. I wonder how many will go to the fight with her.

I think she will be outnumbered. At least by anyone who still likes the Kennedy family. But I guess they don't count,either.

The huge African American population in Montana is without any doubt the reason for this advantage.

Montana... home to ranchers, fly fishermen, and gangstas.

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LOL!!


This is great news.

But he does great west of the Mississippi.


Careful Montana, you are very close to becoming a State That Does Not Matter.

No hard working Americans, white Americans in Montana?

Dang Montana and its limousine rustlers...

They can't hear you. They're all high on latte.

So can we just toss the "working class whites" bullshit now?

The Clinton camp's going to shift to touting the significance of the PR primary. "Her appeal is so broad - she even reaches voters who can't vote in the general election!"

"refreshes the part(ie)s others can't reach?"

Can I have an A-Men, my people?

as a lonely obama fan down here, i was pleased to see my brothers (that'd be earl, pearl, chet and floyd) and my other brother (aubrey) gittin pumped about hillary campaignin for obama down here during the general. being working class whites and all, i figured she could talk the language. help convince 'em.

and NOW you say she's thrown us under the bus for the puerto ricans.

wish we had a bus.

'spect she'll give that to the puerto ricans too.

enough to make a fella bitter.

Good news!

It will soon be all over on June 4th when the Supers stampede over to Obama.

Nope, to the convention floor.

It's All O-VER!

Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom!

Dear Easter Bunny,

Please give me some chocolate eggs for Easter. Also, make Hillary President. I know you are real!!

From,
gotalife

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this race was won in February and just about everyone paying attention could have guessed then who would win which states. none of this is a surprize.

Montana doesn't matter, nothin' but a bunch of latte sippin' negroes.

Buffalo soldiers!

Wasn't that a 'Bud Billiken' parade I saw in Helena?

Obscure reference to a South Side Chicago Parade. Large African American turnout, for those instates that don't matter, like Montana.

where the hell is idiotic?

This is obviously GREAT NEWS

Idiotic must be really tied up, what with all the excellent news there's been for Hillary the past several days.

FOR HILLARY

GORT!

Klaatu!

Barada!

NIKTO!

As you wish.

"The Obama campaign ... tried to take these words out of context," Clinton campaign chairman Terence R. McAuliffe said on "Fox News Sunday." "She was making a point merely about the time line."

Disgusting Obama.

ZZZZZZZAP

lol!

I know, Obama probably was pretty disgusted. But, he has too much class to ever show it.

Those black racists of Montana- damn them.

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It's that Black Power Christian Muslim Movement that's sweeping the mountains and high plains.


LOLOLOLOL!!!

Here's a link to the video, for anyone who wants to see if there's some contextual bit, that would explain it all.

As Tom Waite sang - "You can't unring a bell."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vyFqmp4wzI

From a poster at the HP:

"Obama's campaign used her comment for political purposes. The NY Post and Drudge Report misconstrued her comments originally. Obama's campaign ran with it and "condemned" her statement before she was even out of the grocery store based on the false NY Post report... it was out of context, it was NOT what she said. But in this era of unchecked journalism, it ignited the firestorm. Only later in the day did Obama say he "Took her at her word." He waited to weigh in until his campaign was satisfied they damaged her severely. 18,000 raging posts later, it did some damage, alright. To the unity of this party. To the election in November. Obama's people should have immediately stopped the madness. But his camp wanted more hatred and outrage directed towards HRC to pressure the Supers. It was politics of the worst kind."

Well said and Obama had you fooled.

Didn't he?

Keep this up and the safe words won't work anymore

Well, as long as some anonymous poster at HP said it.

You must be one of those "I read it on the internet....it must be true." Be honest.....how much money have you lost in Nigerian banking scams?

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Ah, thank you!

The best response to GOP troll bullshit like goatlife's, fogu's raek's, and rstephen's -- ridicule and laughter.

speaking of 'unchecked journalism'...

As one American so poetically wrote, "Is ther a matching straight jacket for her yellow pant suit." Yep, she's flipped. But, not before she and Bill take money from poor uneducated whites. You don't think they want to be left with that entire campaign debt, do you? What gready sleezy conning couple who disguise themselves as caring and loving Americans.

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There are 110 delegates on the line on June 3. If Obama is 57 behind, and President Carter (who has strongly hinted that he favors Obama) and a handful of others come out for him on June 4, Obama wins. Lets say he gets 25 of the 64 available in Puerto Rico and he pulls 28 of the remainder from S.D. and Montana he is about 4 short.

Here is something for the remaining Supers to think about. Do you really want to jump on board after the train has left the station?

I might be wrong, but I think some more supers came aboard this evening and his magic number is now 49.

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Don't worry Hillary will do everything in her power to change the magic number next Saturday.

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You all want to talk disgusting, how about Liz Trotta. Josh has the video up on the front page.

sadly, this is what cable news has become. Nothing is gonna happen over this, people will get upset, the republicans will start a backlash and then next week someone else says something and we move on. I dont think it's are ever shrinking attention span. Its the nature of the beast and there isn't a darn thing we can do about it.

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That's some serious shit truly.

Look, I've lived through every one of them - JFK, Martin, Bobby - I take this all very seriously because it isn't some fantasy - I'm scared as it is.

This has to stop -

Sadly, there is much less separating several Hillary supporting demicrats and moderates of Faux News freaks.

Some of the posts on Hillaryis44 and Taylor Marsh, following Ed Kennedy's cancer news and Hillary's assisination gaffe are shocking.

Fellow democrats on these sites rooting for a candidate to die or celebrating the Kennedy cancer news- That's what is really sad.

That's just so GOP. Remember them (GOP) "celebrating" Elizabeth Edwards' cancer?

Why she hasn't been banned from ever appearing on television again and why Fox doesn't apologize profusely is utterly beyond me.

But hate begets hate.

And what Hillary said begot this.

Hillary has won !!!

(or how statistics can be manipulated & spun)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/25/17479/7977

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/25/65822/1936

Too bad Obama loses to McCain.

Off topic, but the RFK comment is now, according to HRC, Obama's fault. WTF? Here is short excerpt from Huff Post.


Clinton Camp Stokes RFK Flap by Blaming Obama

By Zachary A. Goldfarb

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign accused Sen. Barack Obama's campaign of fanning a controversy over her describing the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy late in the 1968 Democratic primary as one reason she is continuing to run for the presidency.

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As Bill said, lo those many years ago:

"That dog won't hunt."

No more playing victim when you're the one spouting the bullshit.

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That was Dan Rather and it's old saying anyway.

If on June 3, in the wake of the 5/31 rules committee meeting, neither candidate has the nomination clinched it is going to the convention.

Obama will spend June, July and part of August fighting off the Republican onslaught using his war chest.

Clinton will be quietly conferring with SDs, persuading them not to pledge in order to see how Obama does.

He will be enervated and exposed as the weak candidate that he is.

Clinton, rested, revitalized and funded will step in to the relief of the Democratic Party.

Clinton remains the best choice.

Can I have some of what you're smoking?

:D

I adore the fact that the nuttier of Clinton supporters keep talking about what a weak candidate he is and how great Hillary is. Except, you know, she can't beat this horrible candidate.

exactly.

Fogu/Registered user,

Please give me the name of your dealer. You clearly have the best drugs.

June 3rd. Over. Put it in the bank.

"If on June 3, in the wake of the 5/31 rules committee meeting, neither candidate has the nomination clinched it is going to the convention."

Its not going to the convention, as much as that is an nocturnal emission for you - because the superdelegates will thwart her plans before they even get of the ground.

"Clinton will be quietly conferring with SDs, persuading them not to pledge in order to see how Obama does."

We see how well that has worked thus far, with a steady stream of SD's going to Obama since Super Tuesday - so by all means Hillary, kep talking to them!!..lol

"He will be enervated and exposed as the weak candidate that he is."

Despite the fact that the only demographic that Hillary beats him in is women who were alive during Lincoln's presidency.. Good luck with that.

"Clinton remains the best choice."

You are a shining example as to why siblings should never marry.

Anyone that's won, or will win the following states need not celebrate because they don't count. They always go Republican in the fall: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

From Rasmussen's Safe Republican list.

For anyone that's won these states, they need not celebrate. They don't matter anyways because they always go Democratic in the fall anyhow. California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
From Rasmussen's Safe Democratic list.

For Anyone that's won Puerto Rico, they need not celebrate, because they can't vote in the fall anyhow.

For anyone that's won:
Leans Democratic: Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Toss-Up: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Leans Republican: Florida, Missouri, Virginia.

..don't celebrate because the other candidate can win some of the other states that you won't and make up for any they haven't won.

That actually goes for both candidates.

Party pooper.

Anyone that's won, or will win the following states need not celebrate because they don't count. They always go Republican in the fall: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

That's another lie because Bill Clinton won Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Tennessee and so would Hillary. But you're right - Obama can't. No way.

Hey shit for brains,

Do you recall the little fellow who looks like your avatar a bit who was in the race both times? He talked about "a chicken in a bathtub" at one point.

That man is the ONLY reason Bill Clinton was elected in 1992. Your comparison is pretty silly, just like Hillary's comparison of 1968 & 1992. She knows you are stupid enough to believe it. In the words of Journey, Don't stop believin'.

Remember remember remember the Clintons have always known how to manipulate what Bill called the "dumb vote," and have always paid close attention to it, so now that it's pretty much all they've got left (anyone with even fair to middling analytical skills knows the race is finished), the Clintons are riding this pony for all it's worth. Which is not to say they believe they'll win either. What they believe and want is up for grabs as far as I can tell since it seems to change with the wind, and I wouldn't claim to be able to speak to it -- though I think Bill's VP feelers give us some indication. That, and the appeals for money.

And Montana goes Republican either way!

Add 3 more supers from Hawaii!

The sad thing is that even though Obama will win the nomination around June 3rd, on the day Hillary wins PR she is going to bash Obama for not winning the Hispanic vote.

May 25, 2008
Gallup Daily: Clinton Maintains Lead Over McCain
Obama has 5-point lead over Clinton among Democrats

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 20-24 finds Hillary Clinton maintaining a significant 49% to 44% lead over John McCain when registered voters are asked about their preferences for the fall general election, while McCain has a slight 47% to 45% advantage over Barack Obama.

Despite the fact that Obama is considered to be the highly probable Democratic nominee, Gallup Poll Daily tracking continues to show that, at the moment, Clinton is performing better against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain than is Obama. Clinton's five percentage point lead over McCain is statistically significant, and considerably stronger than Obama's 2-point loss to McCain among registered voters nationwide.

At the same time that Clinton is enjoying stronger support than Obama against McCain in terms of hypothetical general election matchups, she continues to lose to Obama among national Democrats. The most recent May 22-24 three-day rolling average has Obama at 50% and Clinton at 45%, a slightly smaller margin than in previous days.

There are only three primaries left for Democrats this year -- Puerto Rico on June 1, and South Dakota and Montana on June 3. At that point, all eyes will turn to challenger Clinton as she and her campaign team contemplate their next move as the Democratic Party moves towards their late August convention in Denver. -- Frank Newport

8 more days until Hillary concedes.

When will some of you guys realize that the trolls on this blog are not Clinton supporters or even McCain supporters. They are 15 year old kids who just like jerking your chain and watching you flop around. And some of you folks fall for it everytime.

Josh needs to get some troll disenfectant.

Hey goatlife did you study for your English Lit final? Maybe you'll make it to the 11th grade afterall.

I asked him once if English is his second language. No reply.

The formerly respected columnist known as Krugman supports his gal once again. El barfo.

This far away from election day, the campaign is about energy, money, party unity, and organization. Any polled advantage that is within the margin of error is irrelevant.

Arguably, Obama has the upper hand in all of these.......except for for party unity. If Sen. Clinton were to appear to enthusiastically support Obama, this probably would be alleviated (I think).

Good morning! I woke to read your posts. also the fact that Obama has 3 new sds from last night. 49 to go. HRC is now making herself the victim of the horrible twisting of her direct statement on friday. She is insane, and her followers are lost.

A lot of her followers are just uninformed. Not like everyone follows politics closely and the tv networks sure do a shitty job covering it.

Why is BO leading in SD and MT? Simple, there is a secret black and elitist community in MT and SD that went underground in the 1700 and now they feel as if its safe to come out.

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¡Ésta es noticias excelentes para Hillary!

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And mr. bill is whining that only the clintons can win the general election. Welllll, the current electoral count from my favorite prognosticator who was spot on the last two presidential elections and the 2006 midterms, a ruby red republican by the way, isssss Obama 293, McCain 245. But he can't win the general election mr. bill. Mr. bill lies again, what a shock.

Here is the link:

http://www.electionprojection.com/

By the way I think that this is conservative, unless something bizzare happens Obama breaks 300 easily.

Just another example of Obama doing well west of the atlantic (or east of the pacific- whichever!) !!


The question is, can anyone honestly imagine a scenario where the DNC gives the nomination to Hillary?

"Oh, I'm sorry, but even though you won the most delegates, states, and raised the most money against the person who, at this point last year, was the heavily-favored establishment candidate, we've decided to give the nomination to the cash-strapped former presumptive nominee due to the fact that you are polling within the margin of error of your general election opponent. Plus, we have a vague feeling that something bad might come out about you in the future. Again, sorry, but I'm sure that it's clear to everyone why we were forced to go another direction."

Unless someone can explain how that conversation comes to pass, this is all sound an fury.

Such is the looking-glass universe we've entered.

It does not matter which red states Bill Clinton won. He would not have done so, if Ross Perot was not a candidate.
In 1992 Bill Clinton got 43% of the popular vote. 57% voted against him. He benefited from it being a three way contest, and therefore is not a good example to apply to this year's one on one contest.

I don't really think that West Virgina or Kentucky matter all that much in the scheme of things. They will go for McCain in any case.

However the same thing could be said for Wyoming, Neberaska and several other mountain West states.
Obama may have done well there but McCain will not have to spend much in the way of time or money to defend those states. Colarado is the exception. Arizona is no longer in play, if indeed it ever really was and New Mexico has
been closer than it should have been in the last two general elections.There are a sizable number of Clinton supporters in that state who found Bill Richardson's rather late and opportunistic endorsment of Senator Obama very hard to swallow
nad may either sit this one out or jump to McCain.

Obama has a clear path to the nomination and a
relativly good looking path in November,
but Democrats would do well not to raise expectations to high for the Rocky Mountain West.

States like Montana and Wyoming are quite willing to elect Democratic governors as history has shown, however they have shown an equal reluctance to send those same people to Washington.

Guys, that's why we need a woman in the White House. All this talk about winners and losers is giving me a headache. I am so happy that Hillary ran and proved she could get lots of votes being a strong woman. Barack Obama is a wimp and thinks that the winner is the toughest. He actually said that, so you can see where he is coming from. He's got no class. He might be a good fighter, but so what. Then there's the fact that on Thursday, May 22, 2008, he was the only Democrat present who did not vote on the bill (Senate Amendment 4818) to pump $165.4 billion into the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Hillary voted against it, but I guess he wasn't as tough as he thinks he is.

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