He needs a big win?

Eric, get a grip.

Isn't it amazing that when Obama whittles a 25+ point Clinton lead in PA down to under 10, it is a disaster for Obama - but when Hillary whittles a 25+ point lead down to approximately the same margin, it is STILL a disaster for Obama?

Eric - you really need to remove your nose from Hillary's *beep*.

Obama needs only to maintain an approximate 50/50 split of delegates and popular votes in order to win all 3 measures of popularity. And, of course, he continues to pare away at Hillary's now miniscule SD lead.

He needs a landslide?? Is Wolfson running TPM now? He doesn't need anything. Hillary needs to win NC with at least 68% of the vote, and then repeat that in Indiana and every other state remaining.

So Obama narrowd Penn to 9 points and this was ignored. But Hillary narrowing NC is now a big deal?

Good Lord. How about we quote the slimey Clintons and say "a win is a win."

Why the hell does he need a landslide?

Dude.

Dude.

Based on the delegate tally, I wouldn't conclude that Obama "needs a landslide" in North Carolina. By my count Obama could lose every remaining primary by 38 points and he would still have more pledged delegates. If you were trying to say that the press will portray a narrow Obama victory in North Carolina as a victory for Hillary (possibly driven by the press's interest in keeping the race going -- and ratings up -- even though Hillary has no realistic chance of winning), then you may have a point. Nevertheless, there is no reason to lend credibility to this kind of biased and factually challenged reporting by making the same argument yourself.

True.

Seriously, idiotic could have written the headline for this article. Whichever way it goes, !!this is good news! for Hillary!!!

I disagree that he needs to win big. Obviously that'd be great. But, even if it's a more modest win, that can be calibrated by taking into account the Rev. Wright dustup which has been ably abetted by Clinton. (And presumably she wouldn't be doing that during the GE.) This is no longer for the actual votes; it's for the superdelegates.

There is no difference between Eric's and TPM pronouncements and the traditional media. Who needs TPM when you can get the same BS from CNN. Eric comes up with all these pronouncement. What is a landslide?

Obama will these in double digits.

"Obama will need a big win in North Carolina..."

Or what? He'll remain plus 150 in pledged delegates and continue adding superdelegates at a 5 to 3 clip compared to his rival?

Why are you adamant in your position that Obama needs to beat Hillary badly in ANY remaining primary in order to win the nomination? There are no facts that support your position, yet you continue to insist on it.

I'll say it again: you don't know what the fuck you are talking about. Leave the editorializing to th big boys.

FWIW, Research 2000 is pretty high up there in the SUSA report card.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Wright lost the white votes for Obama.

He can't win the general.

Clinton will.

If the Dems want to win this time, its a no brainer.

President Hillary Clinton.

Well, I get what Eric's trying to say. Obama needs a big win in NC to quell the perception campaign. The reality-based campaign need not apply here.

If Obama needs a BIG WIN in NC (by your words)when he is already in the lead by large margins delegate wise --- then that means Hillary needs to win Indiana by 30 Pts. at LEAST!

Obama "needs a landslide"?!?!?

What are you, Greg, high or stupid?

Clinton will have a net gain of over 100 delegates when FL and MI are seated.

And now for your viewing pleasure:

"Just hours before the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, ABCNEWS has offered to air a 'town hall' meeting with Hillary Clinton -- to be hosted by former Clinton staffer George Stephanopoulos!"

http://www.drudgereport.com/flashabh.htm

Clinton will win NC and Indiana.

It's not Greg - Greg does a better job than this.

This is Erik.

Wait, I thought Obama was ahead. . .

Landslide?

You're so FULL OF SHIT, Eric.

Say Erik - when gotalife is praising your posts - you're in trouble, dude.

Just sayin'

And one last thought before I wash my hands of this crap for the night.

You'd think a site like TPM, so known for muckracking and parsing the media, would be more conscious of the fact that Hillary is offering TAX BREAKS and Obama is saying no way, then obviously Hillary is going to get a lot of votes out of that. This is how Republicans win elections.

The question is: Does is make it okay? Is it okay to say and do anything for votes? I say no. But we know it is effective. The question to report on is not "is it working?" but "is it right?"

After all, It's never been that the Republican message was hard to decipher, or emulate, it's that it would be wrong to trade policy for votes, right? Right?

Then why are we surprised that her campaign is working? Of course it is! This is a tried and true method of winning elections! It's just wrong, morally. And that's the story. The fact that it works is a known truism, proven by Republicans, and conservative parties throughout the world, time and time again.

"... in a state where he needs a landslide."

Um, excuse me Mr. Kleefield... but are you in your right mind?!

Sniffin' that Mark Penn "expectations glue" too much?!

Barack Obama needs no such thing. He needs about 290 delegates... which is, incidentally, he will have most of after Indiana and North Carolina, at which point Hillary Clinton will likely need over three delegates for every one he gets, just to have a chance.

Do the math, man... and save your rep!

TPM used to be a must read for me, but I have to tell you that your coverage of the Dem campaign has me soured on your site. This post about how Obama needs to win NC by a landslide was the straw that broke the camel's back. Hillary had a double digit lead in PA and it was cut down to 9 points by Obama but somehow it's a "failure". If Obama wins NC by less than double digits, it's a "failure". Greg Sargent throwing a hissy fit over Obama going on Fox, but no such outrage over Hillary going on Bill O'Reilly. Hillary has run her campaign like the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy she and other dems, including TPM used to be so vocally outraged against, but this is never mentioned and in fact it's praised. Even today, there's a headline about Obama losing the white vote. Where's the article about Hillary losing almost the entire African American vote? They won't show up in November if she's the nominee. And the last time I checked, the AA vote was crucial to democratic candidate's victories. I'm very diappointed and you just may have lost a reader.

Eric,

He doesn't need a landslide..and while you're at it, stop talking about "white working class voters" all the time, it's, uh, racist and divisive.

Save that for FOX News.

That's two crappy pro-Clinton slanted posts in one day. Not much respect from this quarter for that kind of journalism.

Let me tell you this, while you are playing the Clinton Horse Race game and reposting ideas that her campaign sends you, Hillary Clinton the candidate for "Real Solutions" has proposed the McCain/Clinton Gas Tax Gimmick and is attacking Obama over it.

That's no Real Solution, that's a crass pander.

As Matt Yglesias writes, how can we expect a candidate who ostensibly supports cap and trade of carbon to live up to that when she plays politics with a gas tax gimmick?

We can't.

That's not a "Real Solution." It's a pander policy.

And, yes, I am sure that Mark Penn has poll tested the Gas Tax Gimmick as well as Clinton's appearance on FOX to attack Rev. Wright.

And, yes, they both have hurt Obama in the polls.

That doesn't make it right.

Do your job, Eric. I'm expect more from TPM.

If we are going to really solve the tough stuff our nation faces...ie. build real solutions and not pander policy...we're going to need real journalism not the hacktackular, horse race, 'campaign e-mail driven drivel' you've shoveled our way today.

Thumbs down, Eric. I'm not happy with TPM Election Central at all today.

eric kleinfeldt, your bias is bogus and obvious. you and clinton are traitors to the party. ARE YOU WEARING YOUR FLAG PIN YOU BOZO!?!?!

eric klayfeld, work for cnn much?

A guy at a Town Hall meeting today asked McCain if he called his wife a c***. Of course, everyone freaked out. I think the reason why gave for why he asked the question was good fodder for what we're talking about right now, and it's what we thought the blogs were going to do for us, but maybe they're just new journalists--new look, old trapping--and maybe it still is up to us. This guy thought so anyway.

He said: "What I am worried about is [McCains] temper. Our country is in a serious crisis. This election is the most significant one since 1860. It appears America is asleep -- so I stood up and asked the question."

Okay, I hacked the blog and posted this.

Not.

Funny what happens when the hope and unity rears its ugly head.

Geez.

Come on.

No one has done more for North Carolina than Barack Obama.

She has not been able to move above 45%. So this will be an 8-10 point spread for Obama. She could win Indiana by 4-5. So what?

Would I be pissing into the wind if I pointed out that the infamous Plouffe Spreadsheet has Senator Obama winning North Carolina by seven percentage points -- exactly what this poll indicates?

Eric=TRaylor Marsh nuff'said

Apparently Eric drew the short straw and had to write "the stupidest post of the day." And just when Greg was on such a roll, too.

As an Obama supporter, however, I was really hioping for a landslide in NC too. But maybe he'll still get it and we can bask in the kind of "bigger than expected victory" that Hillary keeps winning.

I don't really recognize the party anymore, though. If you'd have told me that Hillary was going to run this kind of campaign. I actually wouldn't have believed a Democrat would do it. Aside from being just plain wrong, running a race campaign is just plain stupid politics for Hillary. She can highlight race all she wants, but the people who buy that crap are still gonna pull the elephant lever in the fall. But I guess there's no reaon to hope for political smarts from the candidate who squandered more political capital of any candidate anybody can name and is willing to immolate the party for her own pathetic vanity.

Well, like Bill says, "Fool me once . . ." Is Nader running this time?

Can someone explain to me how the 7 point lead is "just inside" the 4.5% margin of error?

Ding, Ding, Ding.

Hear ye all TPMmers,

The contenders for offensive posts = offensive avatars awards

raek, mark simmons, fogu, marginal player, matthew weaver, gotalife (both of them with their previous avatars), dembillc, ottof (having no avatars itself is offensive enough)....

and the winner is....
.....
....
...
Surprise, Surpise !!!

The rank outsiders (a la "black" horses) .....

Greg Sargent and Eric Kleefeld !!!

Give them a big hand (or fingers if you feel like it) folks.

Late update: I admit to trolling here since I posted the same in an earlier (and now "irrelevant" thread).

(i>Late, Late update:I am as shameless as my avatar.

I became a regular here because of my regard for Josh. But it's election time, so I come mostly to this page. I have stayed because of many of the intelligent posters (some of whom I disagree with, but many, many of whom help feed my thinking).

And I don't want to pile on Greg and Eric, but I really do wonder why they are placed here? (I'm sure they're great guys and worthy of even higher positions, but why here during an election?) I'm pretty partisan, but I think I can also be objective. (It happens that, in my own professional life I have to do an exactly analogous thing.)

This quite blatant bias, plus the occasional drowning out of reasoned discussion by trolls, is making me reconsider resorting here. That would make me sad, because I don't yet have a better place. But if the current trend continues, there may be many better places.

Hot cool @ all those upthread!

Folks, thanks for thrashing Eric Kleefeld for this pathetic boner-post. You did it better than I ever could. Man, you cats are brilliant.

Special kudos to gotalie at top middle of the thread:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/poll_obama_ahead_by_seven.php#comment-2774929

Too damn cool that post and that avatar.
Talk about shitting bullets into the face of Scalia! Brilliant boy!

Keep up the good work folks...
And remember: TOMORROW IS PAYDAY!
Time to send our main man Barack some cool hot cash.

Side note:

Don't let any repug pricks tell you otherwise: You can winning, and they are whining.

Let's kick some ass!

Umm, Dose anyone realize that the landslide being predicted had him at like 57 a her with something like thirty two? Leaving a significant number of undecideds.

I completely agree with Dirk. After scratching my head about the above post by Eric and many previous posts by Greg, it led me to wonder about their backgrounds.

Eric is an intern turned greenhorn, graduating from college in 2004. I just don't think he is ready to lead Josh's methodically built reader base, which has proven to be generally well informed and appreciative/hungry for balanced news coverage.

Greg's educational background is not listed (**disclaimer** this is not meant to demean, just saying it isn't listed--a degree doesn't always make you smart) in his profile and has a writing background that includes work done mostly for magazines and the likes--not more traditional style newspapers etc (correct me if I'm wrong please). This is all well and fine if he were confined to writing op-eds and the likes. However, he has been granted a lead role in more traditional news style reporting during this election cycle, and it isn't a strong point of his just yet.

No doubt, this presidential primary has unearthed a lot of passionate supporters from all sides to the table, and this makes the life of even a seasoned journalist all the more stressful. That aside, the lack of experience by these guys has, and will continue to be watched through a microscope every time they slip (they certainly like playing in the rain these days) predominantly because the readers feel that they have so much at stake and need to trust that they will be able to parse information for themselves without being fed opinion.

I hope these gentlemen mature into seasoned journalists if that is what they desire to become, but boy did they pick a helluva time to start.