Poll: McCain's Advantage Over Obama On Iraq Evaporating
With Barack Obama and John McCain battling again today over foreign policy, the question is worth asking: Which candidate is actually winning the argument over Iraq right now?
The new Pew poll we posted on yesterday has some fascinating numbers buried in it that shed some light on this question. The survey found that more people trust McCain than Obama to handle Iraq, with a big, big caveat...
Since April, McCain has lost much of his advantage in opinions about which candidate is better able to make wise decisions about what to do in Iraq. Currently, 46% favor McCain while nearly as many (43%) favor Obama. In April, McCain held a 50%-38% lead on handling Iraq.
It's interesting that McCain holds any advantage over Obama on Iraq at all, given that majorities continue to favor withdrawal.
Still, the more important point here is that Obama has, since April, closed the gap on this from 12% to three percent in a period when the public has been focusing more on the prospect of Obama as nominee and on the developing clash between him and McCain over Iraq. Does it mean Obama is getting the better of the exchange? Unclear, but the narrowing gap is decent news for Obama.
It's interesting that McCain holds any advantage over Obama on Iraq at all, given that majorities continue to favor withdrawal.
Seriously interesting. What the fuck?
May 30, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because McSame is a Maverick and does totally Mavericky things. Seriously, I think a lot of folks don't realize there is very little daylight between the Bafoon and McCain. Once the Clintons fully exit stage right, I think it will become crystal clear that McCain is really Bafoon's second coming.
May 30, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactamundo!
What we are witness firsthand, ladies and gents, is the nation finally turning away from the car wreck that was the Dem nominating process, and beginning to pay attention to the road ahead, where John McCain looks an awful lot like GWB.
May 30, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are just too on top of things! The average Joe only hears sound bites, thinks prisoner of war, and has no clue what Obama is really going to do, thanks in part to all the crap we have had to listen to courtesy of HRC. Really, dumb-downed America.
May 30, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
And remember the poll from '04 that showed Bush supporters were much less well-informed about their candidate's positions than Kerry supporters, and much more likely to believe that he agreed with them when he did not.
May 30, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think vast numbers of people weren't exactly famaliar with McCain's actual position on Iraq. They assumed since he was critical of Bush on the subject, he supported withdrawal. Ironically, I'm sure it's these types of poll numbers that had his campaign pushing this issue. However, the more they push Iraq as a winning issue the more aware of his unflinching support for the Iraq war voters become, creating the kind of movement in Obama's direction on this issue that Pew shows.
May 30, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You all make good points. I'm just surprised that any Republican can be ahead in terms of Iraq.
May 30, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be precise, McCain's apparent 46-43 advantage just matches the poll's margin of error.
This far from November, don't take it too seriously.
May 30, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel confident the debates will flip any advantage McCain has and Obama will jump ahead.
May 30, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I won't feel right reading this post until Greg tells us what the Clinton camp thinks about this development.
May 30, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton voted for this stupid war. I wish every woman over 50 that is enthralled with HRC would think about THAT before anything else.
May 30, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second that. That vote has been completely lost in all the discussion.
May 30, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure Greg knows that you hate freedom by now, Josh Hussein.
May 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, this is EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!
sorry, old habits die hard.
May 30, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, where is Idiotic these days?
May 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
He only had the advantage because the Dems looonnnnnggggggg *zz primary, since Obama has pivoted into the general election. I say by June 13, watch out he will be up an additional 12 points as we will no longer have to contend with HRC (thank God), McSame's gaffes will become the breaking news it deserves other than the little blips from April
May 30, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really, the one yesterday about the calm in Mosul while three suicide bombs went off? That should have been headline news. He is SO out of touch.
May 30, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - that and enormous name-recognition.
Whereas, Obama was not that well known at all going into this.
May 30, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain loses his edge on Iraq and foreign policy, it is going to be a long and painful 6 months for the McCainiacs.
May 30, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seeing as that was his only perceived edge, yeah. I'm not sure what other tree he can shake.
May 30, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rev. Wright! Rezko! Ayers! Elitist! And, did I mention Rev. Wright? And that Obama's an elitist?
May 30, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering that alot of time and ink was spent discussing the Reverend Wright in April, these results are quite interesting. Obama is closing the gap on one of the clear advantages McCain enjoyed.
(I'm not saying he deserved that advantage, of course).
Numbers like these make me think that there's hope for the American electorate.
Who could have guessed that people might start seeing through the endless stream of b.s. put out by the Republicans?
May 30, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to sound snarky, but I did.
I actually believe in this country because I do believe in our people. It was really dark for awhile, but people were scared and their very real fears were played on.
It's been 7 years since we were attacked. People's fears have receded and they can think again and ever since they started thinking again, Bush's numbers have fallen steadily and precipitously.
Let me ask y'all something: Do you think every gentile German in 1933 was stupid? Is that really what you think motivates fascism?
May 30, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
There were many Germans wise to the Hitler and is Brownshirts, but the fear factor was huge.
And I agree. I think the public catches on, they are generally just way behind the curve of actual events.
May 30, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not forget that openly (or even privately) expressing your disagreement with the Nazi Party was a sure-fire way to vanish off the face of the earth.
I'd hesitate to compare the US to Nazi Germany at any point in history. Let's just say the US began going down that path after 9/11. It's up to us now to stop it from continuing onward.
May 31, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. We can only be fooled for so long. It'll be an uneven journey, I'm sure, but I do think we can go in the right direction again.
May 30, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like your optimism. At this point, I'm too scarred by 2000 and 2004.
You know what still bothers me about September 11th? Still? The very regions of the country most directly affected by those attacks are not, nor have ever been, Bush supporters.
But places like Wyoming? Untouched by any terrorist attack? Kansas? Seriously. What is up with that?
Sorry. This is o/t, but it still bugs me.
May 30, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thousands of words have been written on just what you're talking about. It's been analyzed all over the place - why it is that people who were never directly in danger got carried away with it.
I don't know the answer. I have some theories, but that's all they are, just like everyone else's ideas about it.
It sounds facile to blame it all on the media, but you cannot avoid the fact that the media was complicit in the propaganda war every step of the way. It's hard to gage just where people were coming from because all they were hearing was the same fascist crap. Everywhere.
I know we didn't fall for it - I know that. But the reason governments do that is because by and large, people do fall for it in the short term.
I read Christ Stopped at Eboli last year. It is Carlo Levy's account of the his year in exile in far south Italy as a political prisoner of the Mussolini government. It was written not long after the war. Here's word for word what Levy says Mussolini told the people of Italy when he invaded Ethiopia:
"they hate us for our freedoms."
It's not as if this hasn't been tried and has had short term success in the past.
Everyone who wants to understand on a very common denominator level what fascism does to a population should read this book.
May 30, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trust me - the mood in NYC the morning after Bush was re-elected was pure, bitter outrage. Everyone was scowling and fuming. As a co-worker said (and everybody thought to themselves), "WE get hit and THEY get scared - so we can get hit again." NYC - the people who experienced the attacks - voted overwhelmingly for Kerry. Guess we didn't get hit hard enough to please some of our fellow Americans.
May 30, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I know.
But you want to hear something even odder? The Friday after the election in '04, I finally stopped crying (I started Tuesday night) late in the afternoon and went to the store. While I waiting with some other people at the deli counter, a conversation developed and everyone was saying: "what the hell happened?"
We were bitter in Dallas, too, believe me.
May 30, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is getting in the heavy body blows and it is showing. McCain is going down hard in November.
May 30, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
But in this case it is more like an "I've fallen and I can't get up" moment, than a "down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier" moment.
May 30, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting side note: Poblano has revealed his true identity as Nate Silver, a statistician for Baseball Prospectus.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html
May 30, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love me some baseball prospectus.
May 30, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It certainly fits, too. In sports and politics, the MSM badly analyzes statistics.
May 30, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true.
May 30, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, I hope he's not a Cubs fan.
May 30, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
You are on a serious roll today!
May 30, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why it's so important that we end this primary and get focused on the general. A big chunk of the country still knows very little about either McCain's real position on Iraq or much about Obama's positions on anything other than his crazy preacher. Obama's been able to do some work on changing that, but not near enough. The Democrats need to start focusing and driving the narrative.
As long as Obama has the time and space to drive home the message, he can totally take McCain on this issue.
May 30, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad California wasn't held in June.
The latest Field Poll shows that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - who lost the Feb. 5 California primary to Clinton by nine points - is now preferred as the party nominee by a landslide 51 to 38 percent among the state's Democrats, according to a poll of 914 likely party voters taken May 16-27.
May 30, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't Bobby Kennedy assasinated in June? I bring that up, only because the Kennedy's have been much on my mind lately, and that I recall it is Hillary who holds his NY senate seat, which is quite a coincidence, given that he was assasinated in June while running for President, and my opponent is running for President, and it is almost June.
May 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
meesed up the objects in my snark! Rats! "my opponent" should be "Obama".
And I'm spent.
May 30, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
This Californian got it right the first time.
I voted Obama on Feb 5
I'll vote Obama in November '08 and again in November '12
May 30, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
To quote the The Who...
"we won't get fooled again.."
fear can have that absolute effect of keeping people closed minded and afraid to act even for their own best interests...
May 30, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many of us have been saying it over and over again: a few people are just now starting to pay attention to the general election candidates, but most won't even start paying attention until well after the conventions. Once the campaign begins in earnest I'm quite confident that McCain's support will crater. When average voters really understand that they'd be pulling the lever for a 3rd Bush term, it'll be all over but the shouting. And Obama's campaign promises to do an excellent job of insuring that they can't avoid this knowledge.
May 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why Hillary has to get the fuck out of the race asap - it's almost impossible for Obama to be fully contrasted with McCain by the general public as long as that ego-driven, frog-punching diva insists on stealing attention.
May 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The road to the White House runs through frog-punching country.
May 30, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's question: what if the frog puncher refuses to suspend her campaign?
What if she just keeps going? Appeals the decision of the Rules and Bylaw Committee? (btw, could you have ever anticipated watching a committee meeting on CSpan on a Saturday in May??!@@#$$?#?@#?@? WTF?) and brings it to the Credentials Committee?
Who in the Democratic Party will be able to stop her?
This is what keeps me worrying. I don't think the Clintons have the same relationship with reality that many others have.
May 30, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pelosi, Reid, Gore will do everything to stop it, I assume. And, as I say over and over again, I think her SDs will abandon ship if she starts making overtures about the convention.
May 30, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think the Democratic party can stop her from continuing her campaign (and I fully expect her to continue straight through the convention). However, they can push for decisions to be made by the superdelegates, and they can treat Obama as the nominee, which will have the effect of marginalizing Clinton. By the end of June, all the sane people in the party will have accepted Obama as the nominee, and Clinton will be left with just her lunatic fringe. She's already out of cash, except for what she keeps loaning herself. She's got nothing to tap except craziness.
So, so sad that it's come to this. I used to have respect for Clinton. And now, she's become like the crazy relative that you just can't keep away from family gatherings.
May 30, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is she the frog puncher or the punched frog? That whole metaphor was just whack!
May 30, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. The only entry I remember from the "You Know You're a Deaniac If..." from '04 is "You know you're a Deaniac if you know the channel number for C-SPAN on your cable system without having to look it up.
But yeah, it's still weird. I'm getting up on a Saturday earlier than I do for work to go and watch a meeting of a "Rules and Bylaws Committee". Never would have predicted that. *g*
May 30, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
And by the way, disgruntled angry boomer-feminist "undecideds" pissed off by Hillary's loss can kiss my ass. We'll win without them- easily.
May 30, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Things are definitely looking up. Can't wait for June 4.
May 30, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once HRC is completely out, and Obama & the DLC can zero in on McCain in the same way they did with the 100 years in Iraq campaign, McCain's #'s will plummet.
Between that and the media really looking into McCain's corruption, and there' a lot to be revealed, it's going to be his worst nightmare.
May 30, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen McCain cannot rise above 45% in polls now. This is going to agitate him further. There will come a day when we'll all be told to go fuck ourselves.
May 30, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out today's LA Times article on McCain. Maybe the Intertubes can help us out here!
"McCain's Web gap is showing"
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onmedia30-2008may30,0,1308565.story
May 30, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I adore you!
LOL
May 30, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's mutual.
Seriously, though, isn't this absurd? I loathe committee meetings. And yet, I'll be watching that damn thing tomorrow.
At least it's supposed to be rainy and thunderstormy here in Connecticut. So I have a {very feeble} excuse for being inside.
May 30, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is.
I loathe meetings, period. I should be celebrating the fact that this summer, for the first time in almost a decade, I'm not going to have to sit through a frelling 4-6 hour HOA meeting, since I no longer am forced to belong to an HOA.
We should also just be celebrating our nominee. But we have to wait until next week.
Ok. We've been forced to put it off this long...
May 30, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC has chosen to make Tweety their anchor ALL DAY Saturday....
May 30, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid I'd go insane if I had to listen to Tweety all day. Stark raving insane.
May 30, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O you're kidding - all this and Tweety too?
{groan}
May 30, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am afraid so. Tweety is the Vogon poet of the MSM.
May 30, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
What if she keeps going? SO what if she keeps going! If a Clinton spouts bullshit in the forest and nobody's there to hear, does she make a sound?
May 30, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ta Da!
Thank you for pointing this out yet again. It's obvious, but apparently not obvious enough.
May 30, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, But, But...all these pundits have said that Obama shouldn't talk about Iraq with McCain since that's playing on McCain's field!
May 30, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They also said the election would be between Hillary & Rudy.
Fox 'news' went so far as to move a cot into Hannity's studio for Rudy.
May 30, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
jeezus pleezus, Rudy WHO?
That was really an enjoyable crash and burn. Obligatory, if you will, in perfect Simpons prose.
May 30, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
New DNC Video plays the McClellan Card
Where Was McSame in 2002?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeaqwYBqSHA
May 30, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Masterful!
May 30, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goes without saying that this video would not have been possible if Mrs. Clinton were the presumptive nominee.
Or it should go without saying...
May 30, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, another off topic, but newsworthy. Great interview with Reid and it explains alot. I actually wasn't that hot on him, but I think I have changed my mind. He had some great points and insights into the problems in the senate. One of them which had me laughing was the fact that there aren't any more moderate republicans other than Olympia Snow. On Spector, he said that Spector is with the dems when they don't need him. Too funny. Interesting short read though:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/30/reid-superdelegates-know_n_104324.html
Also, reading between the lines it looks like obama will get the nomination next week. The problem is that the clintons will whine all the way to the convention I believe. The issue will be how much press they get, which I hope is zilch.
May 30, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen Reid is an interesting figure. I think he has been caricatured using the neocon fear paint, but it cannot stick, because he remains legislator and statesman, traits which have seemed optional in the Senate for some time.
He remains standing, intact, and whole. This must grind the gears on both sides, but esp. Sen Clinton, who will return to the Senate's back bench.
May 30, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Spector drives me nuts - makes pronouncements about how Congress won't stand for this and that and then folds every fucking time.
The problem in the Senate was that we didn't have a majority - we had Lieberman.
May 30, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent points as always. Let's hope for 60 after november and minus traitor joe. It's totally possible.
May 30, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen Specter is that GOP appendage of the Senate that makes it sound like the Senate is actually considering anything seriously. Never has so much talk come to absolute zilch.
May 30, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a real concern. I'm woried too. And yes, the Dem leaders are going to try to force the issue. But what if she still insists on fighting all the way to the convention?
I don't know the answer. Daily protests outside her Senate offices and Bill's Harlem office? Protests outside the offices of any elected superdelegate who keeps supporting her? Targeting Dems up for re-election who refuse to support Obama? How about a mass, nationwide group leaving the party as a pseudo-referendum to get her to quit? The primaries are all over - people can always switch back later if they want.
I can't believe - as a loyal Democrat for 32 years - it'll come to that. But with the Clintons it actually could. And I think if it does all legal and non-violent tools are legit - to save the party. Despite the lies of the HRC crowd saying Obama stole this it's obvious to anyone sane that she's the one trying to steal it. If she doesn't quit? Fuck her and Bill and all their enablers. Time for a mass intervention to send the 2 of them to rehab - cure them of their joint addiction to themselves.
May 30, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops - meant as a reply to CT.
May 30, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got it. If it comes to this:
(all excellent ideas, btw) our party is royally screwed. If we have to devote energy to moving Senator Clinton out of the race, I'm never going to forgive her, or Bill Clinton.
May 30, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't want to forgive her, I just want to forget her.
May 30, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still give it 65% chance Sen Clinton will be going to court.
May 30, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'll get thrown out immediately.
May 30, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh I agree. But how long is "immediate" in the courts? Days? Weeks? Months? All the while, Sen Clinton will continue to dance.
May 30, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
No idea.
That FL suit got thrown out, I think, within a week.
May 30, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once enough superdelegates have declared to give Obama the nomination under any possible resolution of Florida and Michigan (and they will), then everyone will start calling Obama the presumptive nominee, and the Clinton campaign will become comic relief if they continue to the convention. The better strategy at that point will be to ignore them, not protest against them.
The nominee is not officially chosen until the convention in any case. (John McCain is only the "presumptive" GOP nominee.) An outstanding challenge that has no chance of succeeding will not stop the Democratic Party from going into general election mode. It transforms from a Clinton-Obama fight that makes for interesting TV to just picking a fight with the refs on a technicality, and it will disappear.
May 30, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary haters you have a new boomer to bash. if your mother, wife, girlfriend, or daughter were savaged the way you savage hillary, I think you would feel differently. from my point of view obama has done or said nothing that would encourage my voting for him. I find him inexperienced, arrogant and possibly delusional;
i.e. he thinlks he is "going to change the country and the world." He has destroyed the career of the senator whose office he took. he attended a fairly radical church for 20 years.
i don't want a "rock star" president that uses jz hand gestures to brush off hillary. i was young once and felt i knew more than the stodgy old farts but guess what? experience does mean something.
guess what?
May 30, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Troll Day!
May 30, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing you're a bit bitter. Or, you missed some important medication today.
"He has destroyed the career of the senator whose office he took." What on earth are you talking about?
And, more to the point, can you point to the savaging of Hillary in the comments above?
Talk about being "possibly delusional". Don't look in any mirrors any time soon.
May 30, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary haters you have a new boomer to bash. if your mother, wife, girlfriend, or daughter were savaged the way you savage hillary, I think you would feel differently.
Mom is thankfully dead, no wife or girlfriend or daughter, so thanks for the chopped liver.
That you must use the word savage indicates a state of crippling victimhood.
One need not savage Sen Clinton to count the votes. You savage yourself by choosing this childish path. She lost, and the boo-hooing about it really does not serve your interests.
Pax,
M.
May 30, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
At 50 years old I can now officially enjoy being talked down to as if I'm a "youngster." What a pisser!
By the way, both my wife and sister are boomers and they trash Hillary now too. None of us did until she showed her true hideous colors.
On the other hand, my late mother lived in Little Rock in the 80s. She admired both Clintons for a long time - Mom was a true liberal - but by the time they took the White House she was finished with them. She could see they were frauds looking out for themselves. I didn't agree with her back then - but I did by the end of his 2nd term. Shoulda listened to Mom.
May 30, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mom knew best, didn't she?
Angry Clinton supporters frequently assume that Obama supporters just don't have enough knowledge, experience, wisdom or female relatives to understand that Clinton is really the savior.
I find it condescending, and, amusing, in a way. The supporters of a campaign that has been trying to back away from the "elites" are, in fact, taking an elitist "we know better" approach to supporters of Obama.
May 30, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes. Experience. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz all had the experience to prosecute the war that Hillary voted us into.
And sorry, but no politician running for president is exempt from being savaged by the media and by opponents, not even my preferred candidate. Difference between my guy and your gal is, he knows to brush it off, and she just laps it up.
May 30, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do I really have to admit how old I am?
Such assumptions these people make - no wonder they support Tuzla Tess.
May 30, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
By contrast, Hillary has done a number of things that would cause me NOT to vote for her!
lying about sniper fire
changing positions on Fl and MI
playing the race card
playing the gender card
running a financially and morally corrupt campaign
etc.
May 31, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's magic number seems to be 46%. I think at the current time about 46% of voters are committed to voting for McCain in the fall no matter which Democrat runs against him.
The questions becomes...
What will Obama's magic number be once the Dem nomination is over?
How hard is McCain's 46%? I'd that 2% to 4% can be knocked off.
Who is in that remaining undecided group?
The one thing I do feel comfortable in is that when Obama gets a lead of longer than one week in the poll averages in a state, he tends to hold on to that lead. The only time Clinton ever came from behind on him were in New Hampshire and Texas, both states in which Clinton led for most of the campaign and Obama's lead did not last longer than a week.
If Obama can hold his current surveyusa 7 to 9 point leads in Ohio, Penn, and Virginia out of the Democratic Convention and turn Michigan around, then Sept and October can be all about attacking McCain hard in the southwest and coastal south.
May 30, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oakfort -
Jack Kennedy and Bill Clinton both ran against older, wayyy more experience candidates both in their primaries and general elections. And they were both younger than Obama is right now. The youth and inexperience argument was used by older Democrats against then too. The youth and inexperience argument is always used when an older person is competing versus a younger person for a job. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. With out concrete examples it is fairly worthless.
What I do know about Hillary's experience is that she showed terrible judgement and lack of foresight when she ran her Hillaricare campaign in 1993 and is again showing terrible judgement and lack of foresight in the way she is running her presidential campaign. These are the only two tough projects that she she has ever undertaken on the national stage and she's failed both times even though she had the deck stacked in her favor both times. Nothing that I have seen from her this year has shown me that she has learned anything about leadership - and that was my biggest question about her.
My biggest question about Obama was whether his vision and style could play in big boy politics - and they most certainly have. Obama has run an extremely disciplined campaign that has met all of its goals against overwhelming odds. He showed the same leadership here that he showed reforming capital punishment procedures in Illinois.
At the end of the day, I'm not going to base my vote on how other people feel about a candidate (rockstar) or the candidates hand gestures.
May 30, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to spoil the party, but Rasmussen has a poll out which indicates otherwise:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/mccain_trusted_more_than_obama_on_economy_iraq_national_security
Rasmussen's polling always seems to favor republicans/conservatives but it's interesting to see that in addition to Iraq, McCain is more trusted on the ECONOMY?!
I believe that once Obama starts concentrating entirely on McCain, he will then overtake him on all measures.
May 30, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another interesting statistic in that Pew poll was the one toward the bottom called: "McCain and Bush: More of the Same or New Direction?"
Check out the % of republicans who think that as President, McCain would:
1) Take a new direction from Buch policies: 69%
2) Continue Bush policies: 22%
Does anyone else find it curious that those percentages are similar to how republicans rate Bush on favorability/unfavorability?
Seems to me that this is just a continuation of denial, delusion and fantasy.
May 30, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
TexasLou - Rasmussen sucks ass as a poll.
May 30, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink