« Breaking: McCain Skips Vote On 21st Century G.I. Bill | Home | Dem Senate Candidates Rolling Out First Ads For General Election »
Poll: McCain Not Totally Secure -- In Home State Of Arizona!
John McCain might just have to work a little hard to secure the electoral votes of his home state of Arizona, a new poll from Southwestern firm Behavior Research Center (no link) finds.
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 39%
McCain (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 36%.Sample size: 630 likely voters, weighted for age, sex, race and party identification.
Margin of error: ±4%.
While this is a double-digit lead, it is still uncomfortably close for a home-state candidate -- indeed, an incumbent Senator seeking re-election with those numbers would be considered a possible target.
Even if McCain is still favored to win Arizona, any effort he has to put in to lock it down is time and energy that could have spent elsewhere, and it also means down-ticket Dems will need less ticket-splitters to win their races.
Advertisement
Ah hell - what difference does it make now? The Democratic primary is never going to end, so McLame is going to be the only candidate running in the general.
The Democrats will be tied up in a bogus fucking lawsuit in Florida.
May 22, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The lawsuit doesn't work against a private party. Similar lawsuits have been tossed out.
May 22, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tossed out against Bush43 and the Republican Party . . . Not the Democratic Party.
May 22, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Miss Tena,
That is not true! Senator Hillary Clinton will be candidate for the Connecticut for Lieberman Party . . . Although the grand leader of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party has voiced a preference for McCain in 2008.
RLA
May 22, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haa. I hope this means McCain will have to spend money to hold his own state?
May 22, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't that be just the cat's meow?
(Sorry. Couldn't resist, given the avatar).
May 22, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's ok.
This is a picture of my cat Stash.
May 22, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gorgeous kitty, Evainne.
All your avatars are gorgeous, however. ;)
May 22, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
What! Am I chopped liver???
May 22, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are the bee's knees . . .
May 22, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohh, haven't I told you what a gorgeous kitty you are? Well, you are.
:)
Two tuxedos - very swank company I am keeping.
May 22, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also think your avatar is quite beautiful.
May 22, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Tena.
And CT Voter, your kitty/avatar is beautiful too.
May 22, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tellin' ya, AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano for VP! Give 'im hell in his own state. She's popular in Arizona and throughout the SW, she's been speaking on Obama's behalf for a while now (incredibly effectively), she's one of the best governors in the country. Oh, and she's a woman. Break down all kinds of barriers without giving into Clinton's pressure to put her on the bottom half of the ticket.
May 22, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! I've been saying this for months (mostly to my wife). What would the results of this poll have been if it specifically polled a hypothetical Obama/Napolitano ticket vs McCain?
May 22, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about the latest Siena poll showing a similar margin in NY state - McCain vs. Clinton:
http://www.pollster.com/08-NY-Pres-GE-MvC.php
There is no contest in Illinois vs. Obama.
May 22, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last poll I saw showed Obama doing better than Hillary and NY, haha.
May 22, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama were to pick a female on his ticket, Napolitano would make the most sense.
May 22, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Give Richardson the Veepship and it is over for McCain and the Republicans. I bet Obama could get Texas with Richardon.
May 22, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Napolitano will end up on the Supreme Court, but would not be a good VP pick. I love her, but no.
McCain will win Arizona 55-43. The state trends old and conservative, which is why Hillary won it by about 9. But Barack will do well with Democratic Latinos in this state.
McCain is more unpopular in Arizona than outsiders would think, because of his support for comprehensive immigration reform hurting him with his base. The Republican base in Arizona is very far right on that issue.
May 22, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear that a lot from a good friend in Phoenix. I'm curious what the Latino population in Arizona thinks about immigration reform.
I know what happened in Texas when this was first discussed. LULAC turned out the single largest demonstration in Dallas Co. history against the Republicans.
May 22, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
The number of Hispanics who are strongly against open borders is lost on people looking at this from a far remove.
There is considerable (though well less than majority) Latino support for some of the recent AZ ballot initiatives considered by many Latinos and white liberals to be antiHispanic and racist for the fact of their being anti-illegal immigration.
Arizona Hispanics voted for Obama in equal, or one percent greater measure, than did Arizona whites. I think no other state can say that.
May 22, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll second ALMOST everything you said, articleman (- including that I love her, too!) I can see Obama getting much closer than your prediction.
McCain has had a LOT of problems with the AZ GOP, and even as he tries to get the hard-right "base" behind him, I think the AZ base trusts him even less than the base elsewhere.
May 22, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something Bush did very well in 2004 was make Kerry defend "home-turf states" like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire. While both candidates duked it out over swing-state Ohio, Kerry was never able to venture in Bush country so Bush did not have to defend time and energy on red states.
If McCain is forced to spend alot of time defending big purple states that have recently gone red like Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, then McCain will be in big trouble. Obama by himself can cause McCain to spend alot of time in Virginia and North Carolina and even South Carolina and Georgia (though those last 2 are longshots) So, a south-western governor would be ideal for Obama. If a VP can help force McCain to work heavily to defend Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, the Dems will be in great shape.
May 22, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000, so I don't think I would call it Kerry's home turf, even though it is near Mass.
May 22, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too excited though, 15 point margin is still quiet a bit. Also, Obama ratings against McCain will not fully emerge until Ms. Oxygen Sucker drops out.
May 22, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's 11 pts. Which is still nothing to sneeze at.
May 22, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too excited though, 15 point margin is still quiet a bit. Also, Obama ratings against McCain will not fully emerge until Ms. Oxygen Sucker drops out.
May 22, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This certainly helps Obama's electability argument in the case he has to make to the superdelegates.
May 22, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another torpedo to Hillary's electability argument comes in the form of the two recent polls from California showing Obama handily beating McCain.
In fact, the PPIC poll of CA actually shows Obama outperforming Hillary against McCain.
May 22, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yo yo yo! Are y'all here?
they just subpoenaed Karl fucking Rove!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
May 22, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope they nail his metaphorical ass to the front gates of teh WH.
May 22, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Conyers is quoted as saying: "Someone needs to kick his ass."
:)
May 22, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to keep beating the pesky drum about your pro-Hillary bias, Eric, but in keeping to the style of today's earlier headlines, this one should read, "Obama Outperforms Hillary Against McCain In Arizona"
May 22, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's a pretty big jump there Eric.
McCain'll take Az.
No story here .
May 22, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd be amazed at the number of Obama bumper stickers and t-shirts I see around here. I've seen maybe 5 McCain stickers since the primaries started (by comparision I still see Ron Paul stuff everywhere and Romney stuff in Mesa).
He might be popular with the survivalists and in our retirement communities, but metro-Phoenix appears to be Obama country.
May 22, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's stronger in Flagstaff and Tucson than he is in Maricopa.
May 22, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney stuff in Mesa? I'm shocked, SHOCKED!
Were the flags in Mesa at half staff when Ev Meacham died?
May 22, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's barry lol
May 22, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you really planning to step into the voting booth and vote to put this nation into John McCain and Sarah Palin’s hands? I hope you were more intelligent then that. What this nation needs at this time is two intelligent people to get us out of the predicament we are in. I will gladly vote for the two intelligent men. I feel sorry for you if you think the answer to the worst economy since the great depression is the two morons GOP has chosen to save this nation. Intellect should count for something. We have a man at the top of the ticket that was in the bottom of his class intellectually. And the person that would be 1/2 a breath away from the presidency attended 5 colleges before she was able to pull together enough credits to receive her diploma from the University of Idaho. They might have a piece of paper, but do they have the intelligence to lead this nation in the hard times ahead? I don't belive so. But what else is new we elected a moron to lead the United States of America and look where it brought us. Sarah Palin would be ½ a breath away form having her finger on the nuclear button. Do you trust them with your life and the lives of your children and grandchildren? I don't! I'm sorry you can't take a crash course in intellect. That is why this Christian, white, Arizona Republican, woman will be voting for Barack Obama.
October 11, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink