It "forces Obama to split resources between NC and IN"? Huh? He's been campaigning vigorously in both states for sometime now.

Clearly, the controversy with Wright has hurt Obama. It is unclear how his performance on Tuesday repaired the breach. Moreover, it is unclear how the endorsement of the IN pol who was the former DNC will impact the race in IN.

Whatever the case, it is going to be tight. Polls are already show Hillary momentum in NC as well as IN. It will be all about whether Obama can get back on message and rally his base come Tuesday.

New Mason Dixon poll has Obama ahead by 8%. This IA poll is obviously flawed because more than 60% of AA support will go to Obama. IA poll has Obama receiving only 60% of the AA vote.

This poll is way off. Structurally Obama is significantly ahead in North Carolina. It under samples blacks and other groups.

Can someone please tell me how a poll is bigger news than a superdelegate switching from Clinton to Obama? I am just about through with TPM. On I go in search of more balanced coverage.

I'm with you brother. I looked all over TPM for news of this, and only found it mentioned in TPM reader comments. This is one of the biggest news stories of the day, and it's not getting play here.

no, he won't be "done for" he'll be challenged, and every indication is that he can rise to the cahllenge.

People have asked, and will ask, what do you -- Obama - believe, and he has not hesitated to give an answer. Clearly.

So, the next question will then become, is he responsible for the views of someone else. People attempting to charge him with Wright's views, will be susceptible to the charge of "guilt by association."

This is not the end. It may be end-game. But it is not the end, by any means.

And Hillary faces one big risk in all this. As people ask Obama "Why didn't you leave earlier? Didn't you know?" that question will morph into
"Why didn't Hillary leave a serial sexual predator? Even after she knew?"

What goes around, comes around.

Repeat after me: after all primary voting is finished, even if Hillary wins all remaining states, Obama will still have a 100 delegate lead.

The polls could have Hillary shooting magical unicorn ponies out of her ass, and this thing will still end with Obama at least 100 delegated ahead.

This poll is garbage. Look at the crosstabs. It is in no way representative of the actual voter demographics of NC. Junk poll.

Two things, first, what is meant by "Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day."?

Second, I think this is tremendous news for Clinton and very bad news for Obama. I suspect we'll see more polls from NC and IN showing the same, even Gallup might start showing a change. The question is whether these are all abberations or indicative of a new trend (my bet is on new trend). While Obama is sidelined by Wright with lots of bad press, Clinton was just out with a fantastic interview on Fox's O'Reilly last night. Even the Obama supporters positioned to critique her instead gushed enthusiasm for her interview and barely mentioned Obama. If this continues, even for a few days to IN and NC, Obama will stand to lose both IN and NC. Then, the issue next Wednesday morning will be his electability. I'll state it now, if he loses NC he should seriously consider dropping out for good of the party and to spend more time with his family.

Matthew

As usual, TPM never met a Poll's press release they did not embrace and believe with the innocence of a small child. See here (analysis of their comedic coverage of PA): http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/19119/4996/833/506644

For all the talk on this site about the big bad MSM, TPM has certainly had their fill of Hillary just prior to and now since PA.

I used to really enjoy this site's balance, but it really feels lately like this site is in the tank for Hillary and getting the bump in viewership and ad revenue from the prolonged "race" between Obama and HRC.

She's done, folks. She can't win without stealing the nomination.

Oh, and this is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR MATTHEW! Until it isn't ...

The low percentage of black voters and their low support for Obama are both such ridiculous assumptions that I can't, for the life of me, understand why this poll was posted with such a huge headline on the front page. It's even more baffling considering Bill's hand-picked former head of the DNC has switched from endorsing Hillary to endorsing Obama....don't you think THAT deserves a big front page headline?

Don't get your hopes up, Eric.

Eric, Eric, Eric:

Please read crosstabs and analyze before taking pollster's analysis at face value. The demographics are skewed by age and race. AA will be much higher turnout and undersamples, some might say, the younger demographic. Also, Obama at only 60% of AA vote!

I am surprised IA released this.

Mason-Dixon is pretty much the gold standard in survey research.

... and both candidates short of the necessary pledged delegates to secure the nomination and Clinton ahead in the popular vote. So according to all of your own new rules that superdelegates mirror their state's voters and/or vote for the candidate with the most popular vote then that would be Senator Clinton.

The tide is turning and you are all on the record as to how superdelegates should behave. No changing the rules for a third time.

Obama wins NC. Period.

Regardless of the validity of this particular poll, there is a clear movement in Clinton's direction...while McCain increases his positives. We have officially reached the level of absurd in this country. The single-most biggest issue in this country for the past 6 weeks has been a candidate's freaking pastor???? This pastor may sink a promising politician's candidacy???? This is worlds worse than the blowjob/Whitewater silliness that went on during the Clinton administration.

What a sad turn of events. A promising year turned to shit. A huge, potentially game-changing election reduced to character attacks and guilt by association. There's a freaking war going on and the economy is a mess yet large percentages of people are concerned about Obama's pastor and Hillary's sniper story??? At least a large percentage of folks are also worried about McCain strong connection to the Bush administration. Now THAT is a real concern. But it's the only bright spot in this whole fiasco. Even if a Dem wins the whole thing, even if Obama is that Dem, it will be after months of spending more time denouncing Jeremiah Wright than talking about actual issues that affect our country.

Shame on us.

Maybe this is the one time where the polls leading up to a primary end up helping Obama. In both Ohio and Pa, there were polls showing him beating Clinton in the week before, which made the loss appear greater (at least to the media). I'd be crazy shocked if he lost NC. I agree with the Clintonistas that a Clinton win in NC would be devastating to Obama.

"change" is coming alright...

...just not in the manner all you obama-ites are so desperately hoping for, eh?

hey, keep your chins up. i'm sure he won't get swept in the final 9 contests. i mean, you're just losing another 1 of your weak arguments for him to be the nominee. let's see, how does that list go:

1. he leads in popular vote.

yeah...it's already been documented by the Atlantic and RealClearPolitics & McClatchy News that that's not the case when you tally up all the votes actually cast (yes, including the certified votes of michigan and florida). but with her 200k+ gain in pa, a victory in indiana, a victory or narrow loss in n.c., a trouncing in kentucky and west viriginia, etc., etc., hillary will soon be ahead of obama in popular vote NOT INCLUDING MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA.

wow, who'd a thunk?!?

2. he leads in states won.

yeah...he currently holds about a 2-1 advantage there if i'm correct, and will likely still be able to make that argument when june 3rd rolls around. but by that time, if hillary wins 7 of the last 9, that gap will be shrunken to the point of being negligible, and when combined with fact point #1 above, will show resoundingly that winning states where people actually live in bulk is more important than winning states with lots of livestock and mountainscapes but not so many human beings, since the latter vote and the former...well...they don't.

3. he leads in pledged delegates.

now, this one...this is your most solid hook. it's a good one. explains why you all are clinging to it so desperately now.

here's the thing, though. by the time june 3rd comes around, the momentum on that figure will be solidly in hillary's favor. currently, your guy holds an estimated 156 pledged delegate lead. if hillary gets this figure to at or around a differential of 100, that represents a 35% net gain over 9 contests.

no stunning you say? well, when one accounts for an inane proportional delegate split system greatly handicaps a challenger's ability to "close the gap" despite how well he/she does, a 35% closing is statistically VERY significant.

so, an argument can be made that the obama lead should be deemed inconsequential at that juncture and the candidates deemed to be essentially in a pledged delegate statistical tie.

which, alas, brings us to the super delegates and how they ultimately break in this race.

on the one hand, they can back a candidate who's built a constituency of high-income voters, cross-over independents and republicans and african-americans, demonstrated the ability to best his dem opponent in less-than-democratic caucuses and in predominantly and historically red states that republicans win reliably and repeatedly in november, and on a definite losing streak coming into june.

on the other hand, they can back a candidate who's built a constituency of middle and low income blue collar voters, women, seniors, AND latinos, demonstrated the ability to consistently best her dem opponent in fully-participatory primaries in key democratic and swing states in november, and on an impressive and sweeping winning streak coming into june.

for super delegates serious about winning in november, the choice is clear: hillary.

Do you really have to publish every poll even when they obviously silly. Where is your journalism skill?

Obama will take 90% of AA vote.

Didn't he take 92 % of the AA vote in PA ? I would say it will top that in NC.

Look, I want Obama to win as much as anyone.

But it's increasingly troubling that every time anybody brings up "perceptions", of how tight the race is, of the popular vote tallies, of how MI and FL should count, of how losses in IN and, yes even NC might count for something, of how Wright might be damaging, you all stick you fingers in your ears and chant "she can't win".

You know what? Until he has 2025 delegetes in the bank he can't either, and he hasn't got them yet. What if all these "perceptions", as demonstrably false as they may be individually, actually matter to the SDs? There are no rules to make them act in accordance with "she can't win" - there is only their collective judgement of who can win the general.

Please let's not be so complacent. It ain't over, literally.

Congratulation to Hillary for winning the Presidency !!!
of the Republic of "Testicles" and "Pansies"?

FYI boys and girls,

Matt Towery, who runs the InsiderAdvantage poll, is a longtime metro Atlanta Republican and former Republican state legislator.

The Queen will use her Vulcan Mind Meld and get the job done and all you Kool-Aid drinkers will have to be put on suicide watch.

From here in the RTP area of NC I can see that many have lost the their original unbridled enthusiasm for BO...even some young professional AA's that I work with. Their vote will still go in his direction however. What surprises me is that the older white (65+) blue dog democrats that I know have all gone for HC. There is a lot of early voting here and I plan to go do my duty at lunch today!

McCitizen -- Despite how he is behaving now (which is utterly outrageous), Rev. Wright is not a "well-known radical nut job." He has a very good reputation and, despite the fact that his sermons and speechs are widely available, no one has come forward with anything other than the two out-of-context clips (9/11 and "damn America"). In context, those statements are not nearly as outrageous as they were made to appear. His "nutjob" behavior began after he was asked not to appear at Obama's event in Springfield and appears to have as it's goal harm to Obama's campaign. Think old man already upset by the changes that come with retirement getting mad as hell at being "dissed" by someone he considered a protoge .... and therefore acting in an UNCHARACTERISTIC fashion!

So, unless you have some knowledge that has never been published - anywhere - about what precisely Obama heard during his 20 year membership at Trinity, why don't you just be honest and say "I don't want Obama to win and don't want any of you to support him." Stringing together words that may make a plausible argument but one for which there are no supporting facts does NOT make it a persuasive argument.

When Obama leads by 2 points, there's a CAVEAT!! WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR!!! but if Clinton leads by two, it's a sure thing? Have you guys been taking Fair and Balanced lessons at Faux News or what...