Forget The Prez Race -- The Real Oregon Contest To Watch Is Colorful Senate Primary
Under the shadow of tomorrow's presidential primary, there's another very big race with national implications taking place in Oregon: The Dem Senate primary, where two candidates are locked in a brutal struggle for the right to take on vulnerable GOP Senator Gordon Smith.
The outcome tomorrow could determine whether Democrats have a chance at winning a big Senate seat that national strategists would absolutely love to capture -- and one that they think could be winnable, in a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1984 and where Barack Obama has led John McCain by double-digit margins.
What has national Dems on the edge of their seats is the fact that the candidate preferred by the national party -- state House Speaker Jeff Merkley -- might not prevail against his spirited primary challenger. Merkley is also under sustained attack from GOP incumbent Smith, who's launched an almost-unprecedented pre-primary ad campaign against him -- prompting some to charge that Smith is trying to swing the race to his lesser-funded opponent.
The guy who just might beat Merkley is attorney Steve Novick. An unorthodox candidate by any measure, he has become a surprise YouTube hit for his ad where he opens a beer with his prosthetic hook. Surprisingly, Novick has managed to lead Merkley by narrow margins in most polls.
National Dems are paying close attention to the race because of Smith's vulnerabilities. A conservative who has turned against the Bush Administration on many Iraq-related votes, Dems think they can hit Smith for the big period of time before he switched on the war, and on all the other economic issues where he still votes with the White House.
The national party backs Merkley because of his experience as a state legislator, and he's attracted the support of most unions and national donors, as well as most of the Oregon Democratic establishment. However, Novick has been able to depict Merkley as being too much of an establishment, machine-backed candidate, in a year when many Dem voters have wanted precisely the opposite of the usual politician.
Merkley has seized on the fact that Smith has been running attack ads against him on both TV and radio, charing that Smith is trying to engineer a win for the opponent he thinks would be more beatable: Novick.
Smith spokesperson R.C. Hammond says this is nonsense. He claims it was Merkley who started the attacks, with an ad contrasting his blue-collar background against Smith, who is a scion of the Udall political family. "He has no preference in the Democratic primary, he's leaving that decision to Oregon Democrats," Hammond said.
Merkley spokesman Matt Canter's answer: "That's a lame excuse for what they're actually doing, which is spending a half million dollars trying to swing the primary to the weaker Democrat."
Novick campaign manager Jake Wiegler, unsurprisingly, doesn't buy that theory. "I could see it as being an attempt to help Steve Novick," Wiegler said, "but I could also see it as an attempt to help Jeff Merkley by getting Democrats to rally around him."
The polls close tomorrow at 11 p.m. ET.
My goodness! Oregon, my home of Oregon, is in the news like it actually MATTERS to people out side of Oregon!
what fascinating times we live in!
May 19, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon has always mattered to me, morrigan! I just wish life's circumstances would allow me to live there.
May 19, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon matters to me. I'm third-generation Oregon born. My family came over the Trail in 1861.
May 19, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon matters to more of us trapped in the east than you know.
Go Ducks! (And everyone else)
May 19, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon's a great state.
I dated a girl who moved to Eugene for several years in the 70s.
Those were the days!
May 19, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will also be interesting to see what big endorsement Obama gets tomorrow after Hillary's win in Kentucky.
May 19, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be interesting to see you stop being a troll and actually post about the subject of the article.
May 19, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
oh, please! I have been with Josh since 2001 and he has always answered my emails. I can post what I care to and when I care to post.
sit on it!
May 19, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was replying to Otto, not you.
May 19, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
in the immortal words of Rosanna Rosannadanna. . .
never mind. . .:
;)
May 19, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more interested to see what big ones Clinton get after his big win in Oregon.
Oh, that's right. I forgot.
May 19, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Giving that she needs a super majority of the remaining delegates (75% I believe is the number), why not see how SHE does with respect to superdelegates tomorrow?
May 19, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would not be at all surprised if a significant percent of Novick's supporters are backing him precisely because he has a hook for a hand.
A hook-hand would certainly make me think about voting for someone (I would probably also have other reasons).
May 19, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'd make for a great pirate costume! He wins my vote!
May 19, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are a lot of great reasons to support Steve Novick.
The hook is (pardon the expression) a hook, but there's a lot of bait too.
Steve is extremely smart, authentically progressive, a great strategic and creative thinker, and a dynamic and engaging campaigner. He has legislative experience as a high level staffer even though he has never held elective office.
He's the kind of campaigner who can really take the fight to Smith.
I am eagerly anticipating his nomination, and I can't wait to see him debate Smith.
May 20, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the DSCC played this one wrong. From what i can tell, Novick will be at least as good, if not better, as a General Election candidate.
If Novick does win the primary, I hope the DSCC doesn't cut bait simply because its preferred nominee didn't win. Of course, if Smith proves to have a big lead on Novick if he wins the nomination, the DSCC should do what it must.
May 19, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
DOubt it. I was initially supporting Novick, and raised money for him, but withdrew my support and have been backing Merkley since early fall last year.
While both would be an almost infinite improvement over Smith, Merkley would make a far better Senator and legislator for Oregon, and Merkley, having actually held elective office will be stronger against Smith.
Novick is a bright guy, who is correct on most of the issues (like Merkley is) but the fact that he has never been so much as elected dogcatcher will hurt him in the GE should he be the nom.
May 19, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point, but will the voters think it through this much?
May 19, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
A year ago, the conventional wisdom was that an untested senator in his first term might charm the party's base, but was unlikely to prevail in November. No one like him had ever won the office he sought. Unions, national donors, and the party establishment overwhelmingly backed his more experienced rival. And while Novick is no Barack Obama, I should have thought that the past twelve months would have inserted a note of caution into standard political calculations.
If anything is clear this year, it's that this is no ordinary electoral cycle. Assuming that the same, tired appeals to the same groups of voters will yield the same results is a recipe for disaster. Polls show Obama carrying Oregon against McCain by an average of better than ten points - and that's before Obama enjoys his post nomination bounce. There're going to be a lot of Democratic voters headed to the polls, many of whom will be drawn into the process for the first time, or for the first time in a long time.
I don't have a horse in this race. But from where I stand, many miles away, I can't see why one of these candidates is necessarily to be preferred on the grounds of electability.
May 19, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregonian's don't tend to elect partisan bomb-throwers.
Merkley would (and with luck will) be the stronger candidate, but more critically the better Senator.
May 19, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the mistake was in getting Merkeley to leave his role in the House where he was an effective Speaker. He will be missed and as being the first of 60 in the Oregon House he could have accompllished more than being the least of 100 in the US SEnate. Additionally, like Bradbury before him, he is a technocrat. He's friendly, kind of shyly sweet and really not very charismatic. As the candidate for the GE, he would achieve a respectable defeat.
Novick on the other hand, is nothing like anyone in politics today. He's more like Paul Wellstone and has run a similarly idiosyncratic campaign. His ads are funny and memorable. HE could capture people's enthusiasm if he doesn't shoot off his mouth and offend everyone. He's that kind of guy.
The problem with defeating Smith is that he is not quite a lockstep Republican. He deviates - and on issues that matter to Oregonians - such as gay rights, though mainly his support is for hate crime legislation, certainly not for marriage rights. He's fought the Administration on food stamps and child health care and Medicaid -- sometimes with more vigor than our Democratic Senator, who is falsely labeled a liberal when he is anything but. He's one of the few people , Republican or Democratic, to use the world criminal in regard to the Iraq War. These things don't earn him my vote, but they do tell me that he can't be tied as easily to the Bush disaster as other Republicans.
May 20, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Merkley wins this because from what little I've heard about this race, he's better positioned to knock off Gordon Smith in November.
The DSCC missed a sure pick-up opportunity when they failed to get former Gov. Kitzhaber or Reps. DeFazio, Blumenauer or Wu to throw their hats into the ring.
Although, I've said the same thing about failing to get Gov. Easley or state Atty. Gen. Cooper to run against Liddy Dole here in NC and it looks like state Sen. Kay Hagan has a great shot at defeating Liddy in November if the polls are to be believed.
May 19, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're mistaken about Novick's chances in November.
Although Merkley has been officially endorsed by most of his colleagues in the state legislature, I personally am acquainted with a large number of high level Democratic staff and activists who are voting for Novick because they are convinced that only Novick has a chance against Smith.
Some of these people originally expected that they would support Merkley, but have changed their minds after watching the way the campaign has played out. They no longer have confidence in Merkley.
May 20, 2008 1:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shoot - I'm a long damn way from Oregon, and I like this post. What an interesting race.
The prosthetic hook makes me imagine some election in the not too distant future where both candidates have ear plugs, neck tats, eyebrow piercings...LOL!
I can't wait for this generation to decide to go to law school. I hope I live long enough to see them on the bench - especially with hand tats. That would rock.
I may just finally get a nose stud this summer.
May 19, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Tena. Think twice about that. It appears to be the case that the piercing and metal attachments along a body's midline can play a quiet insidious havoc with the bioelectromagnetic field.......so that goes for the inside of the eyebrows, the nose, the tongue, and especially the navel.
But, hey, if you persist in that idea, at least go for real silver or gold......which switch has helped some I know reduce the short circuiting.
May 19, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Morrigan, it was Emily Litella who said, 'Never mind.'
That said, I'm as amazed as you that Oregon is a player - hasn't happened for 40 years. And I voted for Steve Novick because Jeff Merkely is a plain vanilla polititian; a good guy, I'll certainly vote for him if he is the nominee but he is the flip side of the coin from Gordo (without the personal fortune.)
Steve Novick will stand out. I was impressed with him at the Dem primary debate, so we really need to pressure Gordo to debate in the fall - Steve will rip him open. Metaphorically, of course.
May 19, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could you have him give Hillary the hook? Time to yank her off the stage.
May 19, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What horseshit.
Merkley pushed through the most progressive and successful legislative session in the past 30 years, with a razor thin majority he helped eek out last cycle as leader of FuturePac.
To claim that Merkley is the flip-side of the same coin as Smith is patently absurd.
Merkely's only real downside is he is a very humble modest guy who isn't all about selling himself. Novick, while being a bright guy who is (like Merkley) on the right side of almost every issue, has never been elected dog-catcher, and has been a policy insider for decades, and whom does not play well with others at all.
I will gladly support him if he is the nominee (I was originally backing him in the primary until I dug deeper on him) but your characterization of Merkley as being akin to Smith in any way at all is absurd.
May 19, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks for the local perspective. interesting stuff.
May 19, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It really is. I'm riveted!
May 19, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
"lestat" sez...
"What horseshit. [...] Novick, while being a bright guy who is (like Merkley) on the right side of almost every issue, has never been elected dog-catcher, and has been a policy insider for decades, and whom does not play well with others at all."
So which is it, Mitch. Is Novick unqualified because he's not a profession pol or because he is a professional pol.
Please teach us... (and play well)
May 20, 2008 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's pretty straight forward.
Novick (like Merkley) is a good policy wonk who is for the most party rock-solid position and policy wise (and I will most certainly back him in the GE against Smith should he win the nomination). Novick however does not have as strong a skill-set to be an effective legislator as Merkley does and will get chewed up in the GE because of his mouth. Both would be a vast improvement over Smith.
May 20, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, he was incredibly effective, both with the House and with FuturePAC, so why, why, why take him from where he was doing so well? I feel like he sacrificed an awful lot to run in this Senate race with very little chance of reward. I would love to see him win the General if he wins the primary, but think he is too conventional to knock down Smith who has deviated just enough from Bush to get that precious 'independent" aura.
Yes, you can prove that when push comes to shove on tough votes, he will drop his independent position and fall back in line, but that's a level of detail that the public ignores. They remember him talking about opposing ANWR drilling, not him voting for it. Repeat that for everything else he supposedly stood up for.
May 20, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not the only seriously contest race for Oregonian's to watch. The Oregon Attorney General race is also the huge (and cliff-hanger) race here. There are three races tomorrow night which are competitive on the Dem side...
Senate race - Merkley v. Novick
Attorney General - Kroger v. Macpherson
Secretary of State - Brown v. Walker v. Metsger
The last one is probably the one with more indicators on who is ahead, with Brown being the front-runner, though I hope and pray the Walker can pull it out as she would make a much better SoS, though Brown would not be bad either.. as long as Metsger doesn't get it we'll be good.
My ballot from Tigard (a Portland suburb) was:
Obama
Merkley
Wu
Kroger
Walker
May 19, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's also worth mentioning that no candidate filed for Attorney General on the Republican side and the Oregon Republicans were unable to find willing primary candidates several House of Representative positions at the State level. Their Secretary of State and State Treasurer candidates are also pretty weak.
Could this be the end of the Republican Party in Oregon? Could this be an opportunity for the Greens?
May 19, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Erickson manages to bloody up Mannix (both are running for the GOP nomination to take on the Democrats for Hooley's seat) and he goes down in flames... and they reject Mannix's psycho "law-and-ordeR" ballot measures on things like trying to pass mandatory minimums on non-violent property crimes... then yes. THe Oregon GOP will be dead in everything but name only. They are currently in debt, lost the leg. last cycle (thanks in great part to Jeff Merkely's leadership at FuturePac), have lost all statewide races in the last 4 cycles... and are a totally hollowed out party.
They may be able to somehow pivot down the road on the Scott Brunn flavor of watered-down paleo-GOP (ala business centered Hatfield/MacCall moderate GOP) but their base will not let them. Particularly since Saxton relatively non-wingnut (who was a greatly flawed candidate for them) went down in flames to the rather unpopular (at the time in greatly so) Gov. Klungoski. So they might be learning all the wrong lessons from Saxton's flameout and are rudderless and tracking further rightward (which will cost them even more).
Then you have the Lon Mabon/Consitution party sucking off their theocon supporters at that same time and it is a train-wreck on their side of the aisle.
May 19, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, no.. it is not "time for the greens" and never will be unless we get things like fusion or IRV in place, which I don't see as likely anytime soon (Walker is open to it, Brown mouths platitudes but is against it).
Greens, Naderites, etc. need to realize that their fantasy of running viable third party is tactically stupid and strategically a disaster. Working with and through the Democratic party, to make non-destructive coalition voting a reality can and will be the only way such groups and voters can make their votes and views relevant. I would add that I certainly welcome that outcome, where the various left of center through to far left coalitions work together instead of cross-purposes and thereby giving unintended openings to outright disastrous GOP wins because of fracturing of progressive and moderate voters.
May 19, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, not Walker!!! She's a puppet for the pharmaceuticals. She even had town meetings where she introduced the pharmaceutical reps and allowed them to make their case that there was no need for Rx reform. She had a screaming fit in her office saying she is sick to death of letters from her constituents about health care reform and she wasn't going to listen to them anyway and if she got any more she would tear them all up. She told the organizer from a community based health care reform group that she never wanted to hear from another person about reforming health care, she was sick of it.
This woman doesn't deserve a vote for street sweeper.
May 20, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure either of them can beat Smith, but Novick will have the steepest uphill battle. Smith is fairly good about representing Oregon when it matters, like with assisted suicide and medial marijuana, even when it goes against his personal beliefs.
Beating Smith just doesn't get me that fired up.
May 19, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"And in February, the Center for Responsive Politics reported that Sen. Obama's political action committee had given $694,000 to superdelegates in the previous three years. Of the 81 who had announced their support for Obama at the time, 34 had received donations totaling $228,000."
Told ya these Senators were up to no good.
Total bs.
May 19, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
May you succeed in your quest for a point.
May 19, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
May 19, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
My point is, this joke the dems call an election is bs.
And when supers reward a candidate after losing by 40 freaking points, there is something seriously wrong with this democracy.
Its the bribes the supers recieve from the candidates and if you think this is change , you drank too much kool aid.
May 19, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was that a whine? Sounds like these whines from you earlier in the day:
AND
AND
Whiner.
May 19, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for posting all my points.
Now, if Clinton bribed all the supers after he crushed her by 40 points, would you call it a fair election?
Or scream bs?
I bet heads would explode on this blog.
May 19, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aha! Is this why you post? To see "heads explode?" I knew you were a bit of a masochist, but this opens whole new doors for us!
What else do you like to watch explode, there, Trashy? And that's no happy-crappy!
Pax,
M.
May 19, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you are ok with "your" girl Clinton bribing SDs?
May 19, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
No.
May 19, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
My bad, you ok with your guy McCain having the lobbyist for brutal dictators running his campaign.
My mistake.
May 19, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truly Gotalife - you right hit nail the head, upon.
It sickens me to see a democracy crap out BS like this, and then drink more cool aid - just in time to relieve itself on our freedom. To me - this is repulsive.
Clearly - any situation that does not involve RHC (Clinton) winning this election is complet evidence that peeple have recieved many bribes (money) to destroythe democracy and BS.
In short - I am 100% agree.
May 19, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
To paraphrase the great Anti-Paladin Rumsfeld, one drinks the kool-aid one has, not the kool-aid one wishes one had mixed up. Welcome to politics, is this your first cycle?
For intra-party funding is the very reason political parties assemble. Elected supers are absolutely going to be driven by money, and it's not the cash payoffs.
It's the 50-state green machine that Sen Clinton could not inherit, and that literally has no limits. With sums this vast, who cares about money? McCain can never match it; it becomes moot. This, to me, is 180 degree change.
Because the money comes from ordinary people over and over again.
Neither McCain nor Clinton could draw 78 retirees, let alone 78,000 hungry citizens in Oregon.
Ergo, you continue to drift in the Sea of Pointlessness, a basin filled with the sloshing of your own crapulence.
Pax,
M.
May 19, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is another hole in your argument, in case you weren't sinking fast enough:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/superdelegates-turned-dow_n_102450.html
The age of Big Money is over.
May 19, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
No silly, that is where my first post @ 7:56 on this thread came from.
This process stinks to high heaven and if the shoe was on the other foot, you folks would be screaming for election reform.
Admit it or you are full of bs.
May 19, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife - I think you'd agree that the best thing we can do here is wipe our BS smeared shoes on democracy. TOTAL Kool aid.
May 19, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when the 47,000 lobbyists are banned, that will be the end of the big money and you will finally see change. Until then, business as usual.
But that is another topic on how the kool aid has infested your mind.
May 19, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your argument makes no sense. You are complaining because sunglight is yellow.
You are complaining, in fact, because you are a complainer. You have never buttressed any of your arguments with anything but vitriol, and when it doesn't go your way, it's "all B.S."
Short of waving your magic wand in hopes we'll all just go away, what do you intend to *do* about it?
The answer in embedded in your lackluster complaints, which, like Sen Clinton's, do not inspire a even trip to the loo.
Pax,
M.
May 19, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we can conclude that fair and free elections are a thing of the past in our country.
And you are full of crap.
May 19, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Careful with the T-word there, bub. Thinking does not seem to be your strong suit.
Sen Obama's grass-roots efforts in all 50 states cannot be complained away because your candidate didn't win. You do not even see what a sore loser you are, do you?
Was this your first loss? You are taking it awful hard don't you think?
Pax,
M.
May 19, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife - what the hell happened to Kool Aid? You're all BS now - WAY off topic.
I'm reporting you to McCain's blogmaster.
May 19, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is really sad is that uncomfortably wet slapping sound as gotalife's balloons have all deflated over the months. I am shocked -- just shocked -- that gotalife's analytical continue to miss the mark. It stains gotalife's reputation, and that's just kicking a dog that's down.
All that barking...it's rough...it dogs him...and not just in spots...but down to the bones...and buried deeply....I'll stop now...
Pax,
M.
May 19, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey gotalife, feel free to chime in with your opinion on any old thing now.
Don't let the topic of the conversation at hand stop you from talking sports, the weater, whatever pops into your head.
May 19, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats are underdog's in this race and shouldn't be for many reasons. But Smith is able to portray himself as a moderate and likable guy and Dems just don't have the big name candidate who can obviously challenge him.
I was originally a Merckley supporter and he would make a fine Senator, but he is too vanilla to generate the excitement an underdog candidate needs to change the basic dynamic of the race. Novick lacks experience, but he would shake up the race, that's for sure; so he got my vote. I knew little about him until I saw him in a debate. He completely dominated the show. Whether he can win or not is questionable, but it would be a very entertaining campaign.
May 19, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm for Novick because I'm focused on defeating Gordon Smith-
Merkley is fine and I would work for him in the general but, to me, has run a boring campaign.
Novick's a different kind of candidate who can rattle tha cage and change the dynamic of the contest. That's what we need.
Kid Zemo
May 19, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Novick has to fight against the perception that he's just some sort of stunt. His odd commercials don't actually help that much. But who knows...
May 19, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
He has also burned a few bridges and, to put it bluntly, simply does not work well with others. He can, and will, be a hard sell to many voters in the GE. From not having ever been elected to anything in his life, to his mouth and sniping within the party, etc.
I like where Novick is position/policy wise (which is almost indistinguishable form Merkley's proven record). The only thing Novick brings, is wit and the oddity factor which generates free media and copy that writes itself. But both of those can, and will be turned into weapons against him by Smith in the GE where he to be the nominee.
May 19, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you need some other reason, don't forget that he's 4' 9".
He's pretty witty, too.
May 19, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Novick by all accounts appears to be as good a candidate as Merkeley, though under funded. My guess is either would be fierce competition against Smith and Smith may be underestimating Novick.
May 19, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Novick is a walking quote machine. He will generate a huge amount of free media by just being himself. He is flamboyant and brilliant. If you want a model of how he beats Senator Smith look to Paul Wellstone, whose politics Novick will emulate.
I am angry at the DSCC, they essentially funded the attack ads that Merkley used to drag down a brilliant progressive democrat. Novick has so much more personality and flair than Merkley its not even a contest - Merkley will probably outspend Novick 3-1 and yet it's neck and neck going in to the final day of voting tomorrow. If we are fortunate enough to have a Novick win tomorrow, this is going to be the most entertaining Senate race in ages.
May 19, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
We used to have cool races like this in Alabama. Now we're such a deep shade of red that we get really bad candidates on the Democratic side --- lifelong system-gamers, etc.
How's the housing market in Oregon?
-
Obama/Byrd '08!
May 19, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Dems who do win have the Alberto Gonzalez DOJ after them for getting elected and having the nerve to run again.
May 19, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon will be the straw that breaks the GOP into fragments. They are going to see their supposed "moderate" , Smith, get waxed by whomever is the candidate.
Novick has him, and it is because of no BS. BS is something people here will not tolerate.
Maybe even Walden will have new job? He is one of the guys that was supposed to be watching the treasury of his party while it was looted. Real trustworthy fox.
But Obama is going to get his nomination via Oregon.
May 19, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
When OEA's PAC held a forum on Merkley/Novick I heard from my buddies that Merkley had the better record (um...he actually HAS a voting record), but that Novick has some kind of magnetism that just stops everything in the room. OEA endorsed Novick on that basis. Novick's a rhetorical genius apparently, with a quick wit and personal charm. This contrasts with Merkley's understated, almost stiff, personal style. He's well spoken but he doesn't have that "fire in the belly" if you know what I mean.
My money's on Merkley because he's proven he knows how to lead on the floor, how to avoid shooting off his mouth, and that he understands the issues and how to make them bear fruit where it counts. Novick can certainly talk the talk, but he hasn't walked the walk the way Merkley has.
I have to admit that the "vote for hook" slogan is damn funny tho. He's one to keep an eye on even if he loses this one. Maybe I'd rather have a beer with Novick, but Merkley belongs in the halls of power doing the careful smart work that is his trademark.
I'd like to see Novick start a little smaller tho...perhaps the state senate or mayor of Portland or something. With his aggressive charm, this is the kind of guy who should probably go executive rather than legislative to get his feet wet.
May 19, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not quite fair to say Novick has not walked the walk. He has not spent time in elected office but has a long and impressive organizing activist career. Not only that, but he knows how to craft legislation and how to absorb vast quantities of information.
I also really like Merkeley - but am sorry to lose his leadership in the House where he was an outstanding Speaker.
May 20, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a good (but relatively short) profile on Novick by Floyd McKay, who used to be KGW TV's political analyst in Portland, and now teaches at Western Washington University and writes a weekly column for the Seattle TImes. It's at http://crosscut.com/2008-election/14377/Steve+Novick+is+the+one+to+watch+in+Oregon+politics/
Anyone know where to get more info on the candidates on this one?
May 20, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's clear to many here that not only is Steve Novick the best candidate for the Fall matchup against Smith (he won't know what hit him,) but that he is the iconoclast that the U.S. Senate sorely needs. I continue to mourn Paul Wellstone's untimely death that deprived all Americans of his wit and integrity. Steve Novick has both in spades. Like Wellstone, he will be a Senator that the entire nation can be proud of. That he is an Oregonian just makes me more proud.
Vote Hook!
May 20, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Novick is TOO CUTE!!!
May 20, 2008 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why am I having flashbacks of John Laesch vs the DLC backed Scott?
May 20, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink