Obama's Iowa Speech: We Have Won "A Majority Of Delegates"
Obama's speech in Iowa is now underway, and as expected, he declares that he's clinched a majority of pledged delegates, framing it as a major milestone reached after a very long journey that began in this state 15 months ago.
But because of today's solemn news about Ted Kennedy, and because there's no percentage in over-hyping tonight's achievement now that he's on his way to winning the nomination, he isn't declaring victory. From the prepared remarks...
And yet, in spite of all the doubt and disappointment -- or perhaps because of it -- you came out on a cold winter's night in numbers that this country has never seen, and you stood for change. And because you did, a few more stood up. And then a few thousand stood up. And then a few million stood up. And tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.
I think Obama got the balance right here -- he's telegraphing the significance of tonight's achievement without insisting that it's conclusive. Even so, his declaration is unmistakable: This is the metric that matters, and according to this metric, he has effectively won.
Of course, this is being disputed by the Hillary campaign, which is calling for the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations, and it's unclear as yet what the operative committees will decide on this score and how it will affect the overall nomination battle.
Obama also delivered a tribute to Hillary that took stock of the history-making dimensions of her candidacy, an implicit acknowledgment of the hard work of unifying the party that lies ahead...
The road here has been long, and that is partly because we've traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office. In her thirty-five years of public service, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has never given up on her fight for the American people, and tonight I congratulate her on her victory in Kentucky. We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance. No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age.
Full speech after the jump.
You know, there is a spirit that brought us here tonight - a spirit of change, and hope, and possibility. And there are few people in this country who embody that spirit more than our friend and our champion, Senator Edward Kennedy. He has spent his life in service to this country not for the sake of glory or recognition, but because he cares - deeply, in his gut - about the causes of justice, and equality, and opportunity. So many of us here have benefited in some way or another because of the battles he's waged, and some of us are here because of them.
We know he is not well right now, but we also know that he's a fighter. And as he takes on this fight, let us lift his spirits tonight by letting Ted Kennedy know that we are thinking of him, that we are praying for him, that we are standing with him, and that we will be fighting with him every step of the way.
Fifteen months ago, in the depths of winter, it was in this great state where we took the first steps of an unlikely journey to change America.
The skeptics predicted we wouldn't get very far. The cynics dismissed us as a lot of hype and a little too much hope. And by the fall, the pundits in Washington had all but counted us out.
But the people of Iowa had a different idea.
From the very beginning, you knew that this journey wasn't about me or any of the other candidates in this race. It's about whether this country - at this defining moment - will continue down the same road that has failed us for so long, or whether we will seize this opportunity to take a different path - to forge a different future for the country we love.
That is the question that sent thousands upon thousands of you to high school gyms and VFW halls; to backyards and front porches; to steak fries and JJ dinners, where you spoke about what that future would look like.
You spoke of an America where working families don't have to file for bankruptcy just because a child gets sick; where they don't lose their home because some predatory lender tricks them out of it; where they don't have to sit on the sidelines of the global economy because they couldn't afford the cost of a college education. You spoke of an America where our parents and grandparents don't spend their retirement in poverty because some CEO dumped their pension - an America where we don't just value wealth, but the work and the workers who create it.
You spoke of an America where we don't send our sons and daughters on tour after tour of duty to a war that has cost us thousands of lives and billions of dollars but has not made us safer. You spoke of an America where we match the might of our military with the strength of our diplomacy and the power of our ideals - a nation that is still the beacon of all that is good and all that is possible for humankind.
You spoke of a future where the politics we have in Washington finally reflect the values we hold as Americans - the values you live by here in Iowa: common sense and honesty; generosity and compassion; decency and responsibility. These values don't belong to one class or one region or even one party - they are the values that bind us together as one country.
That is the country I saw in the faces of crowds that would stretch far into the horizon of our heartland - faces of every color, of every age - faces I see here tonight. You are Democrats who are tired of being divided; Republicans who no longer recognize the party that runs Washington; Independents who are hungry for change. You are the young people who've been inspired for the very first time and those not-so-young folks who've been inspired for the first time in a long time. You are veterans and church-goers; sportsmen and students; farmers and factory workers; teachers and business owners who have varied backgrounds and different traditions, but the same simple dreams for your children's future.
Many of you have been disappointed by politics and politicians more times than you can count. You've seen promises broken and good ideas drown in the sea of influence, and point-scoring, and petty bickering that has consumed Washington. And you've been told over and over and over again to be cynical, and doubtful, and even fearful about the possibility that things can ever be different.
And yet, in spite of all the doubt and disappointment - or perhaps because of it - you came out on a cold winter's night in numbers that this country has never seen, and you stood for change. And because you did, a few more stood up. And then a few thousand stood up. And then a few million stood up. And tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.
The road here has been long, and that is partly because we've traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office. In her thirty-five years of public service, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has never given up on her fight for the American people, and tonight I congratulate her on her victory in Kentucky. We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance. No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age.
Some may see the millions upon millions of votes cast for each of us as evidence that our party is divided, but I see it as proof that we have never been more energized and united in our desire to take this country in a new direction. More than anything, we need this unity and this energy in the months to come, because while our primary has been long and hard-fought, the hardest and most important part of our journey still lies ahead.
We face an opponent, John McCain, who arrived in Washington nearly three decades ago as a Vietnam War hero, and earned an admirable reputation for straight talk and occasional independence from his party.
But this year's Republican primary was a contest to see which candidate could out-Bush the other, and that is the contest John McCain won. The Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% of Americans that once bothered Senator McCain's conscience are now his only economic policy. The Bush health care plan that only helps those who are already healthy and wealthy is now John McCain's answer to the 47 million Americans without insurance and the millions more who can't pay their medical bills. The Bush Iraq policy that asks everything of our troops and nothing of Iraqi politicians is John McCain's policy too, and so is the fear of tough and aggressive diplomacy that has left this country more isolated and less secure than at any time in recent history. The lobbyists who ruled George Bush's Washington are now running John McCain's campaign, and they actually had the nerve to say that the American people won't care about this. Talk about out of touch!
I will leave it up to Senator McCain to explain to the American people whether his policies and positions represent long-held convictions or Washington calculations, but the one thing they don't represent is change.
Change is a tax code that rewards work instead of wealth by cutting taxes for middle-class families, and senior citizens, and struggling homeowners; a tax code that rewards businesses that create good jobs here in America instead of the corporations that ship them overseas. That's what change is.
Change is a health care plan that guarantees insurance to every American who wants; that brings down premiums for every family who needs it; that stops insurance companies from discriminating and denying coverage to those who need it most.
Change is an energy policy that doesn't rely on buddying up to the Saudi Royal Family and then begging them for oil - an energy policy that puts a price on pollution and makes the oil companies invest their record profits in clean, renewable sources of energy that will create five million new jobs and leave our children a safer planet. That's what change is.
Change is giving every child a world-class education by recruiting an army of new teachers with better pay and more support; by promising four years of tuition to any American willing to serve their community and their country; by realizing that the best education starts with parents who turn off the TV, and take away the video games, and read to our children once in awhile.
Change is ending a war that we never should've started and finishing a war against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan that we never should've ignored. Change is facing the threats of the twenty-first century not with bluster, or fear-mongering, or tough talk, but with tough diplomacy, and strong alliances, and confidence in the ideals that have made this nation the last, best hope of Earth. That is the legacy of Roosevelt, and Truman, and Kennedy.
That is what change is.
That is the choice in this election.
The same question that first led us to Iowa fifteen months ago is the one that has brought us back here tonight; it is the one we will debate from Washington to Florida, from New Hampshire to New Mexico - the question of whether this country, at this moment, will keep doing what we've been doing for four more years, or whether we will take that different path. It is more of the same versus change. It is the past versus the future. It has been asked and answered by generations before us, and now it is our turn to choose.
We will face our share of difficult and uncertain days in the journey ahead. The other side knows they have embraced yesterday's policies and so they will also embrace yesterday's tactics to try and change the subject. They will play on our fears and our doubts and our divisions to distract us from what matters to you and your future.
Well they can take the low road if they want, but it will not lead this country to a better place. And it will not work in this election. It won't work because you won't let it. Not this time. Not this year.
My faith in the decency, and honesty, and generosity of the American people is not based on false hope or blind optimism, but on what I have lived and what I have seen in this very state.
For in the darkest days of this campaign, when we were dismissed by all the polls and all the pundits, I would come to Iowa and see that there was something happening here that the world did not yet understand.
It's what led high school and college students to give up their vacations to stuff envelopes and knock on doors, and why grandparents have spent all their afternoons making phone calls to perfect strangers. It's what led men and women who can barely pay the bills to dig into their savings and write five dollar checks and ten dollar checks, and why young people from all over this country have left their friends and their families for a job that offers little pay and less sleep.
Change is coming to America.
It's the spirit that sent the first patriots to Lexington and Concord and led the defenders of freedom to light the way north on an Underground Railroad. It's what sent my grandfather's generation to beachheads in Normandy, and women to Seneca Falls, and workers to picket lines and factory fences. It's what led all those young men and women who saw beatings and billy clubs on their television screens to leave their homes, and get on buses, and march through the streets of Selma and Montgomery - black and white, rich and poor.
Change is coming to America.
It's what I saw all those years ago on the streets of Chicago when I worked as an organizer - that in the face of joblessness, and hopelessness, and despair, a better day is still possible if there are people willing to work for it, and fight for it, and believe in it. That's what I've seen here in Iowa. That's what is happening in America - our journey may be long, our work will be great, but we know in our hearts we are ready for change, we are ready to come together, and in this election, we are ready to believe again. Thank you Iowa, and may God Bless America.















Well, I followed gotalife's lead and donated $50 today after reading his posts this morning. I hope it helps bring the party together!!
May 20, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are awesome, GotALifeFan. Way to roll with the punches.
May 20, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope everybody thinks long and hard about November, and joins together.
Make Teddy proud of us, and let's take our country back.
~
May 20, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
He just nailed the line!
May 20, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very classy and respectful.
May 20, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a great line:
May 20, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Obama guy sure is a classy mofo.
May 20, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gracious, classy, and statesman-like. HRC would do well to start emulating him.
May 20, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary has 35 years of public service again? No shit when did that happen?
May 20, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't you ever give it a rest?
May 20, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're reading my mind.
May 20, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
maybe when we rightfully wins the nomination. until then, no.
May 20, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to ask, but define "rightfully."
May 20, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's called an olive branch. Hopefully you'll grab hold and get on board with the presumptive Democratic nominee.
May 20, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dijamo, it's time to stop the name calling and start working together. Do you realize the ramifications of a McCain administration?
Obama will be the nominee. As Hillary supporters, it is our DUTY to stand up for what's right. As much as he may not have been our first choice, Barack Obama is the only man who will be able to stop the 3rd term of Bush/Cheney.
Let's get constructive. I'm all for a dialog on the issues. I think you'll find we have a lot more in common than our differences.
May 20, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
What name have I called Obama? I've seen senator clinton called a lot of names (yes tena I'm talking to you), but I tend to criticize him on substance rather than namecalling.
May 20, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
O give it a rest, dijamo.
I don't care. :)
May 20, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's stop pointing the finger. How about a handshake instead. We're democratss, and we're going to win in november.
We could use your help - let's do this together.
May 20, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
dijamo is still holding out until she gets her pony. in the mean time, the rest can move on to taking down McSame. I'm sure she'll catch up eventually, or not.
May 20, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lovely speech.
He always seems to meet my expectations and then surpass them.
May 20, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg says...
This is the metric that matters, and according to this metric, he has effectively won.
Since when? You must have a link to the set of rules from the DNC that states clearly that the "majority" of pledged delegates is the only metric that matters?
You don't, do you Greg. Sad but true is the fact that most readers here truly believe this, and indeed is encouraged train of thought. The same blog that freaks out over one robo-call thinks the idea of tabulating popular vote totals and counting 2.5 million voters from two states is against the rules, and "ridiculous".
May 20, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
um, dude, I was saying that that was obama's message. read the whole paragraph
May 20, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
but just to make it ultra clear, I added another paragraph
May 20, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you make it clear that Hillary didn't become the staunch defender of Michigan and Florida counting until she ABSOLUTELY needed to have those delegates (I recall her saying that the contest in Michigan "didn't count for anything")?
I mean since you are making it absolutely clear, let's make it absolutely clear that her drive isn't about the people of Michigan and Florida, but about her own political aims.
May 20, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have "the math" Mark Simmons?
Explain to us how you and Karl Rove are going to help the Democratic party. By counting the votes of a state that had one candidate on the ballot, while ignoring caucus states both candidates campaigned in?
Please find a sense of dignity.
~
May 20, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure you were providing this full throated argument when it was the Clinton campaign arguing that this is about delegates. As for Michigan and Florida, please direct your comments and ire to the folks that are responsible for the situation: The Michigan and Florida legislatures and governors.
May 20, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tabulating popular vote totals is not against the rules, just irrelevant. Counting the MI and FL delegates IS against the rules.
May 21, 2008 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am not a math person.
But the numbers do not lie.
I want Hillary, but if it is Obama. I will back him.
Democrats unite against McSame.
May 20, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trolls suck. But spoofing trolls is even suckier.
May 20, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You got the second part right.
Supporting the best Dem candidate, Hillary Clinton, on a Dem blog is not a troll.
May 20, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Troll troll troll.
You tell me who is teh real gotalife?
ME.
I am a Clinton supporter, but a dem first.
I will support the dem, even if it is not my figher.
And you are full of crap.
May 20, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever Troll.
May 20, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um.... I guess i have to agree with you? Another $50 for Obama.
May 20, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yay, GotALifeFan!
May 20, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again he gave me chills!
May 20, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark, give it up.
As a former troublemaker on TPM, I want to be the first to admit - as much as I don't want it to be so - Obama is going to be the nominee.
Instead of playing scorched earth, and being bitter, I'm going to do the right thing. I'm going to stand with my party's nominee who will defeat the GOP in November.
This divisiveness has to end. Mark, I invite you to join me in working with our fellow democrats to do what's right for our country. This is bigger than our candidate.
Who's with me?
May 20, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
what else could I mean? Of course wrestle it from her cold dead fingers. Or win the required number of delegates (no difference between supers or pledged) including michigan and florida.
May 20, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that day will be coming in a week or two. After tonight he'll be about 60 delegates shy. But, no, it won't be including MI and FL.
May 20, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless MI & FL are counted, doesn't matter. I'll support Hillary to the convention floor if need be.
May 20, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
MI FL will be seated, it just won't be based on the rogue primaries they held. I'm sure you'll find your pony, if you just keep digging.
May 20, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry. The DNC disagrees. MI and FL were punished for breaking the rules and their delegates have been stripped. Now, I'm sure as the nominee Obama will work out a compromise to seat those delegates, but as far as the nominating process is concerned, the magic number is 2026.
May 20, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
She can't hear you over the incessant digging for her magic pony.
May 20, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Listen to Hillary saying that Michigan is not going to be counted. She did not object then. Is she going to keep her word or act like the Liar of Tuzla all over again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULxxBz-PAjg
May 20, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
There won't be a need to do so. Her own people are admitting as much. Ultimately, Florida and Michigan's delegates will be seated in a way that reflects the will of their states, and they'll put Obama over the top.
May 20, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then you'll be kinda lonely, because there's no chance in hell she'll be there with you.
May 21, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
She will take it to the convention floor if Michigan and Florida are not counted in some representative way. Maybe not 100% representation, but some way shape or form those votes for Senator Clinton will be counted. Period.
May 21, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
He will. Michigan and Florida will not be seated based on their primaries.
May 20, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really doubt it would be that simple, dijamo. Even if we counted MI/FL and he was still ahead, the Hillary camp would say "well, he's not ahead by *that much*" and start waving around polls about Florida or some crap. It was a race for delegates, period, and they knew it. Otherwise they would've just stayed in a handful of big urban states to rack up the popular vote. He won the delegate race and he doesn't need to win every other metric Hillary supporters can possibly dream up.
May 20, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
See Chuck Todd's math on the new magic delegate number.
No matter which way he slices it, Obama is still poised to hit the number with the remaining contests and some super endorsements. The only question is when that will happen.
The story of Senator Clinton's ever-changing goal posts still ends with Obama kicking the winning field goal!
May 20, 2008 11:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg
I blew that one brother, my apologies.
May 20, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark,
I'm guessing your avatar is supposed to reflect negatively on Obama.
Indulge me.
I'm white, 46, and I live in Alabama. Have all my life. Granted, I'm a liberal.
A few years ago, when I was employed as the press guy at my alma mater, Julian Bond came to town to dedicate a Center for Diversity. I was charged with driving him and sitting in with him on some one-on-one interviews that had been prearranged.
After the interviews, Bond was set to be the keynote speaker in a discussion about race (the University had had some unfortunate incidents take place). After the final one-on-one was complete, I asked him if he was ready to go to the auditorium. He said, "What I'd really like to do is have a smoke."
At that time, I was a smoker, too. So, we stepped outside and shared a cigarette. He asked me about myself (meanwhile, I was dying to ask him about his experiences with Dr. King, etc.) and we had a bit of a discussion about race.
In the end, we shared two cigarettes and talked.
A few days later, I got a note from Mr. Bond. It was handwritten and --- in length and content --- not what you would normally expect of a man of his stature. We've since corresponded a couple more times.
My point? Smoking is a habit that is not confined to lesser men. So I don't see your avatar, as some might, as a negative.
May 20, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for saying that. As a fellow smoker, I am sick and tired of being disparaged for being a smoker. Obama smokes, or smoked, or is quitting or whatever.
It is none of our business, and for those who choose to make an issue of it only expose what petty, intolerant people they are.
May 21, 2008 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
We have not heard the results from Oregon yet.
May 20, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
at 11 pm est
May 20, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We really need a private message feature on this site.
Greg?
May 20, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear djamo and Mark Simmons,
"Change is coming to America."
Its name?
BARACK OBAMA!
May 20, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck Yeah! SLOGANS ROCK!
May 20, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and bitterness, by contrast, is so very cool.
goodnight, dijamo.
one love, guys.
May 20, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
G'night, Tena. I'm out too.
May 20, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will the "vast vaginal conspiracy" never let go?!?
May 21, 2008 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
You embody every trait you claim to hate in Obama's supporters. You do yourself no favors, and Clinton even less.
May 21, 2008 3:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena. I replied to you on the Webb thredd before.
Maj Gen Paul Eaton may be your guy.
Sorry to bug you on this thread, but you sounded like you were kicking yourself trying to remember.
Is that him?
May 20, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - I thought someone else had it, but you are right - Eaton is who it is.
Damn - thank you - you didn't bother me for heaven's sake - I could not remember -
May 20, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shoot - no, I looked at the vid. Eaton's too old.
I give up - I surrender.
I dreamed it.
;)
May 20, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mid 50's I think. VoteVets guy. Two stars. Anyway, he's pretty damn good.
I'll track you down again if I come up with anything.
G'night.
May 20, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
JoeCast found him for you:
Hey Tena, is your General, Scott Gration?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Gration
List of Obama endorsers here, look for military, maybe you can find him, if Gration isn't him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Barack_Obama_presidential_campaign_endorsements
May 20, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena--
Was it Gration?
May 20, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, it ended up being Scott Gration.
May 20, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, any congratulations from Hillary to Obama? Not a chance. She hasn't done that since, what, Iowa?
May 20, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truth and Consequences. It is not just McCain that keeps debating himself.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULxxBz-PAjg
May 20, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I want clarity on is something Hillary said in her speech tonight......she actually said 'Who's ready to rebuild our economy and the war in Iraq....' Rebuild the war in Iraq???? When I heard that, I couldn't believe my ears. So, I googled for a transcript to see if I had heard her correctly, especially because I have always had my concerns about her hawkishness; and being aware of her late date pivot on the Iraq issue, I have had some doubts about whether she would really remove troops from Iraq.
Here is her entire sentence from a transcript:
"Who’s ready to rebuild the economy and the war in Iraq and protect our national security as commander-in-chief?"
May 20, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is interesting. MSNBC has called Oregon for Obama with very solid early returns favoring him, but no other cable network has called it yet. I wonder why that is.
May 20, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, FOX called it finally. Weird lag with them an CNN.
May 20, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The postman always rings twice.
~
May 20, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has 63% to 37% for Obama with 11% of precincts reporting.
May 20, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their map shows two counties counted, one is Lane County, which includes Eugene.
May 20, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls just closed in OR, and becuase it was mail-in the exit polls are probably more difficult. They may even be going off of actual ballots.
Of course I really have no friggin clue - just speculating.
May 20, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN just called it.
May 20, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Erickson is leading Mannix big, with about 5% reporting. Schrader is blowing Marks out for that same seat on the Democratic side. Novick is leading Merckley by about 5 points.
May 20, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Color Oregon a nice shade of deep Obama blue... based on CNN's results so far, it looks likely to be about a 250K-300K edge for Obama once all the results are in.
This, incidentally, is a big enough victory to essentially negate the Clinton campaign's funny math for a popular vote lead, as it will essentially cancel out Hillary's pickup in Kentucky.
May 20, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that happens, it would make me very happy. Popular vote is all the goalpost movers have left really, and it would be nice to completely negate their vote pickup in Kentucky with a big night in Oregon.
Let the hyping of Puerto Rico begin.
May 20, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Already predicting the Clinton campaign's talking points for Puerto Rico...
"Barack Obama needs to win Puerto Rico if he is going to have any chance of winning in the fall..."
A big Oregon win will do a nice job of silencing Kentucky's significance... especially since Oregon is an important swing state, whereas Kentucky is red, red, red.
May 20, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess that and $3 will still get you a cup of coffee at Starbuck's.
May 21, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Many thanks to gotalife and other HRC supporters who say they'll back Obama in November if he's the nominee. Seriously. I've said all along that I'd vote for HRC if she headed the ticket...it's so important to defeat McCain this year. (Good Lord, have you seen his judicial-advisory committee???)
May 21, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
There are probably a lot of Obama supporters who, right now, feel that they would vote for McCain or stay home if Hillary wins the nomination. Conversely, there are a probably a lot of Clinton supporters, who, right now, feel they would vote for McCain or stay home if Obama wins the nomination.
Thing is, there's a lot of time between now and November --- a lot of time for Democrats to be totally turned off by McCain and his clinginess to the Bush policies.
Unless Hillary goes nuclear (and, at this point, I can definitively dismiss that possibility), I firmly believe the party will unite. McCain, isolationism and constructionist judges are the enemy. Any Democrat should see that.
We may hold our noses, but, hopefully, we'll do what's right.
May 21, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Women who choose not to Vote for Barack will be complicit in seeing their sons and daughters, nieces and nephews, husbands and fathers go off to a war that might last a 100 years!
might be complicit in helping to elect judges that will put an end to Roe. v. Wade....
might be complicit in not getting the college aid their sons or daughters will need for an affordable higher education... or possibly themselves if they choose to go back to school!
might be complicit in not finding solutions for global warming... and failing to be a good steward of the Earth...
all issues women with intelligence and compassion care very deeply about.
This despite Hillary and her surrogates who continue to fuel a racial and gender divide, something which does nothing to serve the common good!
May 21, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well put. And I think that by the time November rolls around, the overwhelming majority of Hillary supporters will recognize this fundamental truth and vote for Obama. As they see him in action against McCain, many of them might even do it with great enthusiasm.
It's worth noting the following, from the latest Harper's:
Obviously, had they actually voted this way, Bush would have finished a lot more than 500,000 votes behind Gore.
So I think all will be good at the end of the day.
Plus, Bob Barr might be this year's Ralph Nader.
May 21, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Sargent, I know you're tired of being kicked around here, but just why do you think that the news about Kennedy had anything at all to do with the fact that Obama didn't "declare victory" last night?
I don't think that reflects any bias or anything, but seems like pretty weak analysis.
May 21, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a bit of contrarian thinking: to begin the healing, once Obama's nomination is secured, what if he offers Hillary the VP spot and hope, deeply hope, that she turns him down.
I know this sounds very cynical, but I see a big plus in this scenario.
May 21, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fine if she turns it down, but she could easily do an LBJ and then he's stuck with her.
May 21, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who is considering defecting to McCain in the general needs to read this New Yorker piece by Jeffrey Toobin: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/05/26/080526taco_talk_toobin
McCain as president would be in the position to create a right wing supermajority on the Supreme Court, essentially keeping George Bush in power for a generation. On another note, Obama's speech was amazing. I've done a pretty good job remaining rational about his candidacy, but that speech made me giddy. If America is ready for a black president, this guy is it.
May 21, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
From ABC News:
Delegates and popular vote With and without Fla/Mi
Clinton 1767 17,387,861 16,188,566
Obama 1956 17,189,563 16,613,349
.
May 21, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
so?
May 21, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't matter if you CAN'T WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION!!
DUHHHH!!!!!!!!
He sounds desperate.
May 21, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink