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Obama's Big Indiana Stronghold Turning Out Heavily

Barack Obama has some good news in the early updates coming out of Indiana. The clerk in Marion county (Indianapolis and the surrounding area) says turnout has been more like a general election than a typical primary.

If it were to occur that the Indianapolis area's turnout was disproportionately high compared to the rest of the state, Barack Obama could potentially make up a lot of ground on Hillary Clinton.

And here's some news about the turnout in North Carolina:

Turnout is also massively high here, with state officials predicting that the Democratic turnout could reach 50% by the end of the day.

In North Carolina, 85% of unaffiliated voters have been asking for Democratic ballots.

Any aspiring "Limbaugh Democrats" who are already registered as Republicans in North Carolina will hit a wall today -- state law allows registered independents to vote in any primary, but voters who are pre-registered in one party can't cross over.

A note of caution from Avi Zenilman: "Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance."


158 Comments

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Let's pull another Idiotic..

.

.

THIS

Now

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I cannot stress this enough:

Your catchphrase sucks.

Hey fogu2, how are those unemployment checks coming? Must be good, as it looks like you have a lot of free time on your hands.

IS

that

EXCELLENT

is

NEWS!

F

FOR

U

FOR

N

HILLARY!!!

N

HILLARY!!

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That is sooo much fun.

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It's like a text version of "the wave".

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Ha! That is exactly what I was thinking!

I love this blog.

wow, that's awesome

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It is it is!


That was perfectly done!

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Well done, friends, well done! ;)

Bravo!

Form: 10 of 10 points
Execution: 10 of 10 points
Overall: 10 of 10 points

I long for the day when th wave will be:
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!

Y!

there's a special place in blog hell for you. Say hi to gotalie and otto when you get there.

Fogu2 immediately closes voting on this year's Massingail Award for Groundbreaking Douchery in this fine multi-scene upstaging effort. Truly a performance for the ages.

Known Troll: +5
Contrarian Troll Modifier: +3
Swarm Modifier: +15
Bitter Modifier: +15
Massingail Award Qualifier: +400 (New!)
--------------------------------------------
Troll Rating: 438 (A Personal Best!)

Welcome Back!

Now that's more like it!

Pretty much my batting average!

HILLMENTUM!

Hey, sucker. See you didn't take my bet.

Buckawwwwk!

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Way to ruin everyones fun you fucktard.

go back to little green footballs.

Are you friggin kidding? You move the golaposts like a true pro.

I offer favorable terms, Hillary wins in IN and loses by less than double digits in NC, you win. Then, in true chicken form, you change the game to offer me 1-10 odds....

Pretty ridiculous spin, fella.

But you're so certain.

Take my offer....chicken.

Buckawwwk!

Fogu2, let's just head back to McCain headquarters. They don't seem to like us here. I can't imagine why. We're so charming and witty.

But you are so certain of the outcome.

Wassamatta you.......chicken?

Buckawwwwk!

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Grow up, guy.

LOL

Pretty interesting all around:


...first few hours of voting. Among them was Meghan Ward-Bopp, 24, who went against family tradition and asked for Democratic ballot so she could vote for Barack Obama; she plans to vote for Republican John McCain in November.

"I'm a hardcore Republican," she said, "but it's about who I wanted in second place in case McCain doesn't make it. ... I don't like the way this country's been run in the last 20 years. I'm sick of the dynasty (of two families) that's been running things."

Ward-Bopp voted for the Democrat she liked, but Jim Adams, 36, voted for Hillary Clinton to keep the race going beyond Indiana. He's a McCain backer and enjoys watching the Democrats fight.

See? It's more difficult than it looks. Just as economists should do fiscal policy, Idiotic should do the Idiotic thing.

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Well, the truly mononic thing will be coming from Gottalife in a manner of minutes.

Yeah, but I had a Budweiser and a shot of Crown Royal. So, I was DIWI -- Doing Idiotic While Impaired....

I'm confused about the claim that a high turnout in Indianapolis (and its surrounding areas) will be good news for Obama - I thought last night one of the giant talking heads on Hardball was claiming that Hillary was actually polling better in these areas because of the Chicago media's fixation on Wright. Anyone got any special insight?

Indy isn't in Chicago media mkt; they reach NW Indiana. Indianapolis is 25% African American; accounts I've seen say he has to pull a lead of 10% or more there to have a chance statewide.

Gotcha....so Chicago media mkt would be more like the areas around Gary?

Exactly. And Gary isn't going to go for Hillary. Not after what Bill and others in her campaign have said about Obama.

But NW Indiana also includes Hammond and other towns which are places where Clinton will probably do well.

Yeah, the MSM is full of self-important asshats who don't know shit.

Actually, that would explain a lot of what I've seen on the news as of late....

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Oh, they know shit, they roll in it all day long!

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I heard that, too. But, someone said that about northwestern Indiana, around Gary. I thought it was counterintuitive. If anything, there should be a backlash in the heavily African-American communities in Indiana, especially near Chicago.

It's a the biggest city in IN -- he always does well in the citites.

See, your first mistake was listening to the MSM talking heads.

His numbers always look good early. I still haven't heard an explanation that makes sense, but I've stopped reading the tea leaves and just wait for "too close to call" or "too early to call" on MSNBC. Hoping for the former in IN and the latter in NC.


I'm hoping that NC is called right when the polls close.

Evie, when you get a handle on this, let me know. It is very strange how the exit polling this season has almost always been higher Obama than the "real" numbers. Once, twice, three times -- okay. But almost every time???

And today it is happening again. Drudge says "NC BLOWOUT". This post by Kleefeld.

How come I know it's gonna be just another inconclusive wash-out night?

I'm worried about the same thing. I'm choosing to ignore all predictions/exit polling/eye-witness reports, etc. I've been disappointed too many times.

Chuck Todd's theory on the exit polls this AM was:

(1) Obama supporters are enthusiastic, and therefore are more likely to go up to the exit poller and tell them who they voted for

(2) Obama supporters are less likely to be wary of exit pollers and willing to tell them who they voted for when asked (college educated v. not college educated)

(3) the classic lying b/c they don't want to seem racist

Todd thinks that each of these reasons accounts for a couple of percentage points & then you get yourself up into the 6-7% overstatement range.

Now, the follow up question is why doesn't the margin of error cover this?

The first one was what I was thinking -- the enthusiasm gap rears its head again in exit polls.

It is very strange how the exit polling this season has almost always been higher Obama than the "real" numbers. Once, twice, three times -- okay. But almost every time???
Mark Blumenthal opines that Obama has done better in exit polls because exit polltakers tend to be young, and they can have a harder time getting cooperation of older voters in filling out their forms.

He dismisses the idea that there's some sort of "Bradley/Wilder" effect. I don't know the details of how exit polls are produced, and whether the released numbers have demographic weighting built in or not, but it seems plausible to me that you'd be more likely to get "unfiltered" results, so biases in who is more likely to respond to an exit poll could skew the data.

Funny how we are as concerned about the media narrative that emerges tonight as the actual results.

The media narrative is more important than the actual results, and has been for some weeks. Obama's already got the "actual results" sewn up, after all; that battle is over. The battle that is being fought now is wholly one of public perceptions...

I know, tragic, isn't it?

Absolutely. If I have to hear one more pundit ask "Why can't Obama close the deal?" or "Why can't he attract white working class voters?" my head will explode.

I stopped watching television. My frame of mind about the campaign has been eminently better.

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We are addicted to distractions, the main distraction now is Hillary Clinton's Quixotic quest for the White House. Everyone knows she can't win without overthrowing the will of the voters, but she refuses to face reality. She finds and pushes out every possible excuse for her actions (not unlike the Bush white house) and the media laps it up and spits it back in our faces.

Listen, this is the hard part of the campaign. When Hillary goes away there will be ACTUAL policy differences between the two remaining candidates. Sure, the media will still be regurgitating distractions, but they will be peppered with policy, and that is what we need.

Why do you think the Gas Holliday has gotten so much press? I think it is because it is a policy difference, and those have been rare this election season on the Democratic side.

Yes, yes, and yes. But that next phase still feels too far away.

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Actual results have little to do with the media narrative. Hell if Hillary withdraws what are the cable networks going to cover between now and the convention. The Obama/Hillary "race" is very, very good for the networks. This long primary season is worth at least 5 missing blond girls.

Ditto on Eric's citation regarding the exit polls. The underwhelming performance of Obama relative to the exit numbers in the close states throughout this season has been the most deflating aspect of the campaign.

Agreed about those exit polls, but don't be deflated....A close race in IN would be great, but isn't really necessary. Tonight ends up in a net gain of delegates for Obama, and undoubtedly will lead to a new group of Supers declaring for him over the next week.

Is it just me, or has there been less editorializing from Greg and Eric the past few days?

Of course, I still take exception to the headlining of outliers that has become general practice here, there and everywhere--given that Hillary is the one behind, anything suggesting she might win the nomination is an outlier, but still...

I've been less annoyed with these two recently.

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I agree. I think they've both put up some great posts the last few days.

Fellow Obama supporters and friendly goats, do not get your hopes up just yet. I have painful memories of similar reports about Philly turnout just two weeks ago, and the early story was about how it was going to be very close. Alas. Stay pessimistic and you'll never be disappointed.

I concur. Also remember the Limbaugh Democrats in one of the most Republican states out there who are allowed to vote in Indiana's open primary.

And that Rovian voter ID law, just upheld by the Bushist SC.

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Did you hear about the retired nuns who weren't allowed to vote this morning. The sisters were all in their 80s and 90s and live in a convent. Since they don't have to drive, they don't have drivers licenses. Thank God for the Bush Supreme Court. We wouldn't want sisters voting would we?

I'll stay optimistic and enjoy all the time between the odd disappointments.

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Yawn. Polls don't close for awhile. All us Obama supporters are getting our hopes up, even as we say we shouldn't.

My prediction: Hillary by 5 in Indiana, and Obama by 9 in NC.

My hope: Obama wins both.

My fear: Clinton wins in Indy, comes within 3 in NC.

I may have to do some of those shots Hillary is good at!

Mark me, peoples. NC is a done deal. The only way for Hillary to come closer than 5% would be

1. Voter turnout exceeds 2.5 million today (50% of registered voters from ALL parties)

2. NC votes from today break greater than 50% for Hillary, against all predictions.

Neither of these seems probable. While it's certainly possible to get 50% turnout, some of that is still going to be Republican, and they can't cross over. Unaffiliated voters are voting heavily Dem, but I guarantee you most of those are breaking Obama.

In early voting, about 500,000 votes were cast. From polling, those looked to be breaking in Obama's favor by around 20% margin. Figuring a conservative 15% advantage for Obama, and a record 2.5 million Dem votes in the primary voting today, and an unlikely 50/50 split in today's voting, the outcome would still be 51.6 Obama, 48.4 Clinton.

And that's if all the forces of improbability magically line up in her favor. That's still a 3.2 margin. And it - repeat after me - ain't gonna happen.

Based on my precinct alone, I'm still betting double digits Obama. ;-)

yes...excellent indeed. nicely done.

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Wow. I don't recognize you in this mode.

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We didn't meen to steal your thunder...

We still worship you!

WE'RE NOT WORTHY!! OF IDIOTIC!!!

mehehehehementum™!!

I didn't know your keyboard had lower case!

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Off topic but is there a primary night drinking game? It has to be playable with wine, I do support Obama after all.

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Take a shot every time AC calls his panel o' doofuses (doofi?) "The best political team on television"?

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AC? Is that CNN?

I prefer MSNBC.

What do I do if Chris Matthews gets another tingling sensation in his leg?

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AC = Anderson Cooper.

You'll be doing lots of shots, btw.

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Yes, AC = Anderson Cooper of CNN -- what those of us with only basic cable must endure. 8-\

[Me, I have to mute the sound and just look at the candidate's vote percent totals, or my head will explode from the blather]

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There's always a drinking game... Take a drink everytime a pundit says a form of the work "expect" (expected, expectations, unexpected...). Also, you have to start drinking when ever they "throw it to a reporter on the floor" on the scene at the polling places or campaign headquarters and can't stop drinking till that reporter responds. "I can't hear you Wolf" is not a valid response.

How about you take a swig everytime Rev. Wright is mentioned AND everytime "working class whites" spews forth out of someone's mouth?

And, also, does any other guy (or gal) here have kind of a crush on Rachel Maddow, her "other team" credentials notwithstanding?

LOL, I like this game. Of course I will be drinking Crown Royal everytime someone mentions 'working class whites' and Budwiser when Rev Wright is mentioned.

Also good for a required drink:
-the bradley effect
-brokered convention
-Michigan & Florida (must be in the same sentence)
-elite
-african americans/black vote
-puerto rico
-turnout
-hoosier
-tar heels

bonus swig for the also-ran 'John McCain and' 'out-spent 2:1'

I am watching Hardball and I am already druuuuunk... *hic*

To borrow a page from Mortal Kombat,

FINISH HER!!!!

ORIGINALLY from The Karate Kid!!!

And I awate till I get to cast my vote once I get off work in 50 minutes. Indianapolis - Wayne Township district.

I tried to vote this morning, but the pollsters couldn't find my name on the list until the very end of time I had left before I had to go to work.

For what it's worth, from over at the Politico.com blog:

(2:10pm EDT)

DON'T BUY THE HYPE: CLINTON NC INTERNAL EXITS SHOW A 14-16% BEATING. THEY ARE EVEN MORE ALARMED BY INDIANA WHICH HAS THEM DOWN 3% WITH POLLS CLOSING AT 6 PM, THEY ARE GOING NUTS TRYING TO GOTV. MIGHT ALL BE OVER TONIGHT BOYS & GIRLS.

I'd say . . . worth very little!

I'd say. . . You're exaggerrating its worth! :-)

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It has all been over for two months now.

Hillary is a inexorable puss filled sore on the body of the Democratic Party. She won't go away until leadership lances that boil once and for all.

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Link?

It's not worth much IMO.

DON'T BUY THE HYPE: CLINTON NC INTERNAL EXITS SHOW A 14-16% BEATING. THEY ARE EVEN MORE ALARMED BY INDIANA WHICH HAS THEM DOWN 3% WITH POLLS CLOSING AT 6 PM, THEY ARE GOING NUTS TRYING TO GOTV. MIGHT ALL BE OVER TONIGHT BOYS & GIRLS.

I could not find that info on Politico. Do you have a link or is it BS???

Pran

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It's total BS. It's from a commenter on Ben's piece on "Ballot Box roundup". Scroll through the commenters and look for CYNICAL_ME.

Link: Look for CYNICAL_ME in comments

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I found it. It is not in the body, it is a comment by some random poster.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Ballot_box_roundup_Less_disorder_than_usual_so_far.html

I think its crap zeldub, because the same message appears in the comment section of politico.

Mitchum, like the little known, but musky aftershave?

What a throwback!

Hillary camp leaks to Drudge, Politico echoes it, the networks repeat it, and Hillary camp gets expectations where they want them to be.

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And here, for a burst of some reality:

One of his first encounters went poorly. He approached a man sitting alone at a table and was waved away. The man told me afterward he had no interest in meeting Obama. "I can't stand him,'' he said. "He's a Muslim. He's not even pro-American as far as I'm concerned.''

Full link here: Lynn Sweet's report on Obama's morning in Indy

Very telling that the idiot couldn't even be bothered to ask him directly whether or not he's a muslim. I guess I know now who's part of the 27% who still approve of the job W is doing.

The world is now too small to continue to permit stupidity.

I disagree.

On the whole, however, it seems like he had a pretty positive reception.

Sometimes my doo doo is yellowish.

Good to hear about the Limbaugh Democrats. I'm sure Hillary isn't happy about that. She'd probably be out of this race by now if it weren't for that crap keeping her numbers up in the last few races.

"• A note of caution from Avi Zenilman: "Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance.""


This can't be said often enough.

In PA, many of us were warning about this, yet Drudge and HuffPo managed to push out those early exits once again. It plays right into the hands of the Clinton expectations game to have a "shocking win" even though it was long predicted. Perhaps HRC is leaking these to Drudge on purpose for this effect.

To repeat: EARLY EXIT POLLS ARE MEANINGLESS!!!


Via IndyStar.com, 12:30PM:

Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties, where fewer Republican voters might impact down-ticket primary races.

But are they Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" agents?

Hopefully most are not:

"I'm a hardcore Republican," she said, "but it's about who I wanted in second place in case McCain doesn't make it. ... I don't like the way this country's been run in the last 20 years. I'm sick of the dynasty (of two families) that's been running things."

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS0502/805060396

There is something really petty about a personality that would permit itself to use a vote in such a fashion. It speaks much more about the character of the voter than the candidate they are trying to stop.

Utterly pathetic.

Dude, these are Republicans we are talking about. Look at the idiot fascists these losers have been voting for for the last forty years. They think politics is a football game, and even if their team is out selling their grandparents for food and raping their children, they'll still vote for them.

Hey, all's fair in love and war.

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mcdonald:

Fortunately, registered REPUBLICANS cannot 'cross over' in Indiana. Only registered INDEPENDENTS can do that.

And here we go: Sickening!

May 06, 2008
McCain's Justice Advisory Cmte
John McCain announced today the members of his campaign's Justice Advisory Committee. Translation -- The very folks who would help a President McCain select nominees to the SUPCO and federal courts. Heading up the effort are Theodore B. Olson, former Solicitor General of the United States, and KS Senator Sam Brownback.

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O my god - Ted Olson! And that total wack job Brownback?

Whoa! That is one wack bunch of wackos.

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There's a dog whistle if there ever was one...

That just turned my stomach.

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I want to thank John McCain for the work he is doing to re-unite our party.

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Wait folks - I thought the new voter ID system in Indiana was going to make it almost impossible for so-called (and I really have problems believing this) Limbaugh Chaos Democrats.

[I'll concede that maybe there are a dozen such in any state - but that's all. People are not going to throw away their vote just cause Rush said to]

Voter ID just requires a Driver's license to vote. It's still an Open primary where the voter can vote in either regardless of prior party affiliation

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Not according to the post.

• Any aspiring "Limbaugh Democrats" who are already registered as Republicans in North Carolina will hit a wall today -- state law allows registered independents to vote in any primary, but voters who are pre-registered in one party can't cross over.
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That's North Carolina, not Indiana. You have to show a valid ID here, then they ask you what party you want to vote for.

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That is North Carolina...

NC is closed to party affiliation, but IN is open as long as you are a registered voter with an ID.

That quote says North Carolina. The Limbaugh discussion pertains to Indiana.

Indiana is the one in the middle of the country; the Carolinas are on the right side of the map :)

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I think I was sufficiently schooled.

Thanks everyone - that'll teach me to have two conversations going at once.

;)

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Excellent post by Al Giordano of the field on the Primary Day ritual:

http://208.76.84.21/thefield/?p=1160

Just a little taste...

Today marks the 47th and 48th primaries or caucuses for the Democratic presidential nomination. More than 90 percent of the delegates will have been chosen by tonight. By now, we all ought to know the drill.

The day begins with the Clinton campaign “leaking” something to the Drudge Report to set expectations for the day. That then gets repeated on political blogs and cable news, where Clinton surrogate Terry McAuliffe elaborates. Today’s “expectation”: That the Clinton campaign expects a “15 point” defeat in North Carolina. Clinton’s yapping puppies in the news media repeat the manufactured expectation all day long, in which the bar is supposedly now that if Clinton comes within 15 points in that state that she has somehow “won” with a 14 point (or 6 point) defeat.

Al's terrific and his predictions have been pretty accurate throughout the entire primary season.

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Well he's sure got the process exactly right.

The sad part is that the MSM media falls for it every single time.

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Doesn't look at all like a limp to me...

Gotolife: I would suggest seeing a doctor about this.

Yellow stool can indicate that food is passing through the digestive tract relatively quickly. Yellow stool can be found in people with GERD (gastroesophageal reflux disease). Symptoms of GERD include heartburn, chest pain, sore throat, chronic cough, and wheezing. Symptoms are usually worse when lying down or bending. Foods that can worsen GERD symptoms include peppermint, fatty foods, alcohol, coffee, and chocolate.

Yellow stool can also result from insuffient bile output. Bile salts from the liver gives stool its brownish color. When bile output is diminished, it often first appears as yellow stool. If there is a greater reduction in bile output, stool lose almost all of its color, becoming pale or grey.

If the onset is sudden, yellow stool can also be a sign of a bacterial infection in the intestines.

I have never heard a more accurate and heart-felt adoration of our dear gotalife in the long history of TPM. You have the soul of a poet.

I just wish I was joking...

One good thing though...

If there is one issue that will help unite the Democratic Party after a nominee is chosen Obama becomes the nominee, it will be the Federal bench- especially the Supreme Court.

No matter how much Hillary fans will be disappointed, the overwhelming majority will not turn the SCOTUS and other federal courts over to loons like Brownback and Olson. I can see Brownback thinking Hagee would make a good justice!

IN polls close in 45 mins?

What we all want to avoid:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080506/ap_on_el_pr/primary_exit_poll_glance;_ylt=Ak3p15s.1j2gK8e3sh0ac6hB5494

:-)

Hope that's way off, 'cause a 33% African-American turnout in NC could make this a very bad night.

Also, not good:

Non-Demos voting:

IND 30%
NC 20%

Good thing exit polls suck! :-)

And over 25% in both states are over 65! :-(

Who cares!

Teh Kids voted early in NC. Also heavier African American turnout in early voting than in today's exit polls - closer to 40% than 1/3. Just a note.

Also, when I voted (closer to 6), NC - everyone in line was > 35. The oldies vote earlier in the day, more exit-able. Getting-off-work folks vote later.

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Not necessarily bad for Obama in NC, where registered Republicans can't vote in the Dem primary (only Dems and unaffiliateds).

Hi folks -- it's 5:20 pm --
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!!!!

Hi folks -- it's 5:21 pm --
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!!!

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I'm off, but everyone have a pleasant evening - no matter what the results. Go Obama!

Why the hell is MSNBC flashing percentages (favoring Clinton) on the screen before the effing polls close?!

I voted. Laud me. Seriously. I want some lovin'.

Hillary's going to win Indiana by a bigger margin than I'd like, and Obama's going to win North Carolina by a smaller margin than I'd like. At the end of the day, Obama will still be ahead and a little closer to the finish line. North Carolina is the last big state.

Hillary has no exit strategy. I hope some can find a way for her to leave the race with dignity and grace. Because Obama is going to need the support of her followers come November.

I gotta say, Troll critic makes my day!

Sincerely,

Miles

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