Obama Won't Declare Victory Tomorrow Night
Although Barack Obama could end up with a majority of the pledged delegates after tomorrow's voting in Kentucky and Oregon, Obama himself declared yesterday in Oregon that this "does not mean we declare victory."
Obama advisers have been saying privately and publicly for weeks now that May 20th will be the campaign's D-Day -- the day that they secure a majority of the pledged delegates (not necessarily including Florida and Michigan, which the Clinton campaign will argue negates the significance of securing that majority).
The fact that Obama won't use this milestone, should it occur, to declare victory represents the topsy-turvy set of considerations that Obama advisers are entertaining as they puzzle out how to wrap this thing up while keeping the party unified.
Before they had effectively won the primary, they were trying to persuade reporters that they were on track to winning on May 20th. But now that they have effectively won, they will take care not to declare victory, in order to avoid alienating Hillary's supporters in advance of the general election.















I think they've been saying this (that it's an important milestone) from the outset. I think the pundits have (which is their wont) run with this factual statement and turned it into a declaration of victory. What it is is a victory of reality over spin.
It's the math.
May 19, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are there really that many mean spirited Ferraro clones out there to make a difference in the Obama/McCain match up?
At some point I just have to think that those folks won't vote for Obama anyway, no matter how well he coddles their hurt feelings about him "stealing" what they think was rightfully Clinton's.
May 19, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you lose the benefit of not declaring by declaring that you won't declare?
May 19, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, this does seem an awful lot like Calvinball.
May 19, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
This could all be so very easily straightened out. It works like this: Hillary concedes and throws her delegates and support to him. Primary over.
Why is she being so selfish and self-involved at this point?
May 19, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, she has her eye on something. I don't know if it's the veep slot or something else entirely, but you better believe that, in her mind, she thinks she deserves something out of this.
Crucial point to remember: Hillary's all about Hillary. And I'm sorry if that pisses off the folks we hope to unite with us in November, but she's proven it again and again. Lying (see Bosnia), pandering (see gasoline tax) --- she has shown an ability to morph her message in ways unbound by any sense of logic or ideology.
All this points to why I couldn't vote for her.
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Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 19, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think she is staying in to raise money to pay off her debt.
I could be wrong.
May 19, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
Note they have been calling it "D-Day" not "VE-Day".
D-Day was the event that made victory inevitable in Europe. It was not the day they declared victory.
May 19, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
that's an interesting distinction. still, obama advisers have been privately saying that's the day that they "win," and they're notably not going to broadcast that message now, for understandable and good reasons.
May 19, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there've been two separate, but interrelated, campaigns running for quite some time now, haven't there?
In public, Hillary has abated her anti-Obama rhetoric and has come to his support when McCain attacks rather than joining it or pointing to it as a reason she should be nominated, but in private, she encourages her supporters to email and phone the DNC Rules Committed to seat the Michigan and Florida sham delegations on the basis of the sham elections and points to the attacks as reasons he shouldn't be nominated.
Likewise, in public, Obama stays humble and doesn't gloat over winning the pledged delegate race. In private, however, he tells the supers "Okay, I won the pledged delegate race. Its safe to come out from under the bed."
The interrelation is clear, however. Its not lost on me that the change in Hillary's public tone came after she had that series of meetings with super-delegates after Pennsylvania.
May 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely, NCSteve. And what's not lost on me is that no matter how muted Hillary has become publicly, it is very clear that she has not loosened her grip on those MI/FL delegates and it appears that if the DNC decision on that front does not her way, she will not go down quietly.
May 19, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Smart move. He's won it, everybody knows it, people who pretend otherwise look delusional, so there's no need to rub it in. As long as he's going after McSame and Hillary isn't attacking him, everything's copasetic.
May 19, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton Quiet About Own Radical Ties
Faulting of Obama Called Hypocritical
By James V. Grimaldi
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, May 19, 2008; A04
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/18/AR2008051802101_pf.html
Excerpt:
When Hillary Rodham Clinton questioned rival Barack Obama's ties to 1960s radicals, her comments baffled two retired Bay Area lawyers who knew Clinton in the summer of 1971 when she worked as an intern at a left-wing law firm in Oakland, Calif., that defended communists and Black Panthers.
"She's a hypocrite," Doris B. Walker, 89, who was a member of the American Communist Party, said in an interview last week. "She had to know who we were and what kinds of cases we were handling. We had a very left-wing reputation, including civil rights, constitutional law, racist problems."
Malcolm Burnstein, 74, a partner at the firm who worked closely with Clinton during her internship, said he was traveling in Pennsylvania in April when Clinton attacked Obama for his past interactions with William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn, members of Students for a Democratic Society who went on to found the bomb-making Weather Underground.
"Given her background, it was quite hypocritical," Burnstein said. "I almost called the Philadelphia Inquirer. I saw what she and her campaign were saying about Ayers and I thought, 'Well, if you're going to talk about that totally bit of irrelevant nonsense, I'll talk about your career with us.' "
May 19, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Better late than never, I guess.
Also, new superdelegate for Obama: Washington State party chairman.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/front/topstories/story/364161.html
May 19, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right!? What the hell took so long, This has been all over the blogs for weeks now and they just write it up.
Priorities!
May 19, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The reason why I have posted the Washington Post article about Hillary's own radical history is because she keeps claiming that she has been fully vetted, and that there was no more damaging things that could be uncovered.
This report shows that her claim is complete bullshit. Who knows what else will still come out about Hillary's past.
Never trust someone who tells you that they have full vetted their self, and found nothing. That is essentially what Hillary has done. This new report in the Post shows that she has not been fully vetted.
May 19, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, never trust anything Hillary Clinton says. She's a pathological liar.
May 19, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The decision as to how to handle the MI/FL situation has to be determined by the DNC. I expect that will be announced after they meet on the 31st. It's appropriate for Obama step back and let those who have the power to make that decision do so. In the meantime, I expect that we will be seeing more SuperDels and more endorsements coming out for Obama between now and the end of the month, which will render the MI/FL outcomes less determinant in the overall scheme of things.
May 19, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's been very good about staying out of all of that, I think, Carol.
She's been all over it since she started losing, but Obama has mainly kept his mouth shut and let the DNC handle it and I'm glad.
If the bitterness over those states here on the boards reflects anything at all that is going on in real space and time, he's brilliant to stay as far away from that decision as he can.
May 19, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
He needs Clinton to leave the race on her own terms. There is little point anymore in trying to force the argument. Everyone knows what's up. Clinton needs to make the decision, explain it to her supporters and get behind Obama. But she's not going to do that if the Obama campaign is declaring victory (prematurely in her eyes).
It's not a victory until Clinton drops out.
May 19, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh - yeah it is.
A victory is a victory is a win. He has won.
He is the victor.
May 19, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Knowing it and saying it are different things. No point to rub the salt in Clinton's wounds.
May 19, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't speaking to that - I agree that he can avoid upsetting the Clinton supporters by not declaring victory.
However, that does not mean there is no victory to declare.
May 19, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I get the point he's trying to make. At this point, Obama just needs to carry on with his general election plans and let Hillary deal with her own psychodrama. Telling her to drop out would just encourage her.
May 19, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
But, there will be psychodrama, regardless, because she will have to be told to drop out. She is forcing the MI/FL issue, by refusing to abide by the agreement that all parties made when they first decided to move up their primaries. She will be told by the DNC how delegates for these States will be handled and she will likely not be satisfied with their decision. There will be psychodrama and she, and her supporters, will feel that she has been cheated out of the nomination.
Best course for Obama is to stay out of the fray and let the DNC handle it.
May 19, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats Obama-Clinton Spread
Total Delegates 1900 - 1718 Obama + 182
Super Delegates 298 - 275 Obama + 23
Pledged Delegates 1602 - 1443 Obama + 159
May 19, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Liam.
May 19, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can this country really stand all this high road politics?
May 19, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is going to obliterate Obama in KY and she is closing in on him in OR. Then she will destroy him in PR, after which she will have a clear lead in popular vote. Why should she concede when Obama has not won? Why is OBama still doing so poorly if he's the presumptive nominee? Hopefully the supers will realize he's a sure loser in Nov.
May 19, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
They should totally nominate the person losing to him.
May 19, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that should be the new way everything works:
The least favored applicant for a job automatically gets it. The candidate with the fewest votes wins.
Maybe things would better if we tried to work it all backwards.
May 19, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dogzilla bait. Or whatever his handle is today.
May 19, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."
It's the George Costanza theory of politics.
May 19, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
funny you should say that, because yesterday, Senator Clinton was telling voters in KY that they should look at this as a hiring decision.
I agree.
The choice is between the candidate who has run a groundbreaking campaign with superb organization, and no debt versus the candidate who badly miscalculated the mood of the country, the strength of her opponent, and the competence of her staff.
Clearly, the job should go to the latter, and not the former. What was I thinking?
May 19, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
One more freakin time:
What popular vote?
This is the primary, there is NO voting right in a primary. None. Zilch. You have no rights by law to vote in any damn primary. Voters be damned - this is not an election.
It's a primary. "Popular Vote" does not exist.
May 19, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
That would be a clear lead in which Obama receives 0 votes in MI though 43% of the electorate voted for uncommitted, presumably none of them would have committed to Obama had he been on the ballot. Oh and also you cannot include IA, NV, ME, and WA because their caucuses do not report popular vote totals. I suppose when you muck up the process like that, then it is a clear lead for sure.
There has been only 1 contest since he generally became the "presumptive" nominee in the eyes of the media (though not in the eyes of the delegate math) and it was in a state that was almost entirely tailor made for Clinton. West Virginia was by all rights a blowout and a solid win for her, but had it been another state with demographics that heavily favored him we wouldn't even be discussing this.
Yes I'm sure they are sweating it pretty hard having to go with the delegate winner, the states winner, the money winner, and the one that draws massive crowds at this stage of the game. Clearly they have no basis for going with him and he is a sure loser.
May 19, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
*HEAVY SIGH*
and Texas.
May 19, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Explain to my how a person enters the race with $120M, global name recognition, a former POTUS by her side and the backing of not only the establishment (political and corporate), but also of the media and still comes in 3rd in the first contest? Squeaks out a vote tally win in NH, but ties in the delegates, and then does the same thing in NV? What kind of person starts off with $120M on hand and less than a month after the first primary contest, has to loan herself $5M?
Clinton supporters love acting the ignorant by claiming, "We don't know anything about him." As if it's Obama's fault those twits refuses to listen to him, are too ignorant to actually check out his website, and yet...Clinton is losing, lost to an "unknown". Explain that one.
May 19, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
This point seems to always get lost. When you compare the campaigns, Clinton has run a terrible campaign. There's no reason why an individual with her name recognition and outstanding fundraising ability should have been, for all intents and purposes, out of the race a month after it began.
If how a person runs their campaign is an indicator how they will function as President, the comparison between Obama and Clinton is pretty obvious.
May 19, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stop making up new rules. Popular vote does not count, only delegates. Besides she is not winning the popular vote.
May 19, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's bogus claim to "victory" is an end run around the Democratic presidential nomination process, trying to swipe the nomination from Sen. Clinton instead of playing fair and square.
"Majority" counts for nothing; what counts is getting the requisite number of delegates for the nomination. This bogus "majority" claim is simple an Obama ploy to generate pro-Obama biased media spin against Sen. Clinton.
Obama has no presumptive lock on the Democratic nomination. The nomination process continues for the remaining primary states to vote their presidential preference and FL and MI votes must be counted. The superdelegates must then select the best qualified candidate to win the general election using their independent judgment with no regard to any "delegate math." Sen. Clinton is the best qualified candidate to defeat McCain; she will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Sen. Clinton's campaign continues in her fight for the future of America and all Americans. All rational Democrats need to support her campaign by making frequent contributions at HillaryClinton.com.
May 19, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're delusional.
Is your head going to explode the day Obama takes the oath of office, or will you be standing there with a sign "Go Hillary!"? Like a wandering psychotic?
May 19, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good luck with that!
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Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 19, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Clinton is the best qualified candidate to defeat McCain
By what metric? Her campaign imploded after Feb. 5th. If one of the factors that you evaluate in a candidate is how they've run their campaign, Clinton is in hot water, and has been, for months.
May 19, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Clinton is the best qualified candidate to defeat McCain; she will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Sen. Clinton's campaign continues in her fight for the future of America and all Americans. All rational Democrats need to support her campaign by making frequent contributions at HillaryClinton.com.
Bill? Is that you?
That campaign debt must be worrying you. Maybe you shouldn't have given her control of the family checkbook.
May 19, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm...
On second reading I don't quite like that last sentence. It sounds a bit sexist, which wasn't my intention. Sorry if anyone was offended.
May 19, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am offended.
May 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Geraldine Ferraro said she might not vote for Obama.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/us/politics/19women.html?_r=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin
What a jackass.
May 19, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes she is a jackass. My god - she fucked up Mondale's ticket with her connected husband and now this?
Fuck her! These old line Democrat apparatchiks give me the pip.
Geraldine: You're old. You're proving it. You'd serve yourself much better by shutting the hell up now.
May 19, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I read that this morning and was stunned.
Remember, Ms. Ferraro: it's not all about you.
For her to say that she wouldn't vote for the Democratic nominee because of sexism in the race is just difficult to believe. John McCain is preferable? Gimme a break.
May 19, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I mean - how damned insane is that, CT?
I'm sure she's giving it the last minute balls to the walls effort to prove to the supers that Obama isn't electable. But come on, bitch - you ran for the fucking vice presidency as a Democrat.
That's really really beyond the pale, Geraldine. It really is.
May 19, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gee start the week with another of those battles between heart and head.
Again the angels of my better nature win out...good call O'Bama!
May 19, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
What has disunified the party is not the length of the battle but rather the unfair and underhanded means by which Obama chose to campaign.
May 19, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, that's one of the lamest attempts to stir up shit evah.
Bad troll! Bad!
Can we get a better class of troll around here? These ones got lost on the way to Eschaton - that's where the dumbest trolls on the net are homebased.
May 19, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
On D-Day plus around 60 or so delegates, Clinton could win 100% of the votes in all remaining contests and take all the remaining superdelegates...
... and she'd still lose.
But heavens forfend one should call Obama the presumptive nominee...
May 19, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
??? What counts is the majority of delegates. There's no Obama ploy here, these are simply the rules agreed to at the outset.
Perhaps you have this confused with the Clinton campaign's ploy (and it is a ploy) of pretending that this is about some kind of majority (calculated in a highly self-serving manner) of the popular vote. Unfortunately for her, the intended audience (the superdelegates) aren't falling for it.
The majority of superdelegates that have made their decision so far disagree with you.
May 19, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget the majority. It's a big milestone, for sure, but he's only 120 delegates short of the magic number. Once he gets that the delusional Clinton supporters will be out of spin.
May 19, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not one to spam or play Chicken Little, but the sky IS falling.
May 19, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's getting closer... The Portland rally is just the tip of the iceberg. Even Sen. Byrd knows it.
May 19, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If He's So Confident, Why The Desperate Behavior?
May 18, 2008 (LPAC)--Two recent incidents suggest that, despite the lying media hype that Senator Barack Obama has already secured the Democratic nomination, nothing could be further from the truth, and the Obama backers and some Howard ``Scream'' Dean people are now resorting to desperate tactics, including heavy-handed pressure and outright bribery, to try to stop Senator Hillary Clinton's building momentum, going into the final series of primary elections.
Sources close to the Obama camp have reported that the May 14 endorsement by former Senator and Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, came at a heavy price. According to one source, Edwards was put under tremendous pressure to endorse Obama now, or face total isolation by the Obama camp. A second source added that ``private donors'' very close to Obama made major contributions to an Edwards anti-poverty project, to buy the Senator's endorsement. Just days before Hillary Clinton's landslide victory in the West Virginia primary on May 13, Edwards had announced his intentions to remain neutral until the nomination had been finalized. Then, on May 14, he made his about-face and endorsed Obama. The day before the endorsement, on May 13, Edwards had been in Philadelphia to launch a new anti-poverty campaign, called ``Half-in-Ten,'' whose avowed goal is to cut poverty in America in half in the next decade. Two of the groups participating in the coalition, the Center for American Progress Action Fund and ACORN, are both almost exclusively funded by none other than George Soros, and his Democracy Alliance of billionaires. Soros launched the Democracy Alliance in April 2005, in an effort to assure Anglo-Dutch financier domination over the Democratic Party, through the pooling of the wealth of 70 multi-millionaires and billionaires, into a targeted list of Democratic Party organizations and think tanks. Among the members of the Soros group is Fred Baron, a wealthy Dallas, Texas attorney who was finance chairman for John Edwards' failed 2004 presidential campaign.
In another move that clearly showed more signs of desperation than confidence, Obama backers induced Prince George, Maryland County Executive Jack Johnson, a Hillary Clinton delegate, to announce, on May 14, that he was switching his convention vote to Obama--despite the fact that, under Democratic Party rules, elected delegates are bound to the candidate they were elected to represent in the primary--at least on the first ballot. Both the Maryland Democratic Party and Howard Scream's DNC made no effort to shoot down Johnson's defection. The increasing thug tactics being used by Obama backers in recent days is a reflection of growing concern that, coming out of Senator Clinton's landslide victory in West Virginia, and the overwhelming support that she is winning among blue collar voters, and other constituents in the lower 80 percent income bracket, it may be impossible to settle the nomination battle before the August nominating convention in Denver. Lyndon LaRouche has emphasized that, if Senator Clinton continues her active candidacy into the August convention, she will win the nomination, and then go on to soundly defeat John McCain in the general election in November. LaRouche has warned for months that Obama is not electable, and that leading City of London financial circles had backed Obama, only to knock Clinton out of the race. Ultimately, they intend to assure that he is never elected President. Increasingly, Obama backers in many states around the country, are coming to see that LaRouche's warnings were correct.
May 19, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's time to end the pussyfooting. C'mon Super D's lets wrap up Barack's nomination tomorrow.
The Clinton psycho-drama has gone on long enough.
Enough is enough!
May 20, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink