« Obama Wins Guam By A Hair, Even Delegate Split Likely | Home | Obama To Run Two-Minute Closing Ads In Indiana And North Carolina »

Obama Wins Guam By A Hair, Even Delegate Split Likely

Barack Obama has officially won the Guam caucus, held yesterday local time, by a very narrow margin.

The numbers, with all votes now counted: Obama 2,264 votes, Clinton 2,257 votes, a margin of seven votes for Obama.

With only eight pledged delegates casting half a vote each, it looks like this race will be a wash at two full delegate votes apiece.


Comments (123)

avatar

Full of win.

avatar

Next stop, Indiana and North Carolina.

But don't just read about it... make those calls today, Obama supporters!

Let the other side spin the news. We've got work to do!

Mission Accomplished!

GO GUAMA!

avatar

Full of win.

A win is a win!

"You know, Jessay won Guam in ettyfore and ettyett, so it's not that big of a surprise..."

But in all seriousness, why can't Hillary seal the deal?

Not quite a wash, since they are not tied.

They get the same number of delegates; that is, Obama is still the leader and she still trails behind by the same difference.

But Obama is a little closer to the magic number (2024). The winner is the first one to get there...

avatar

Not a wash at all, considering that they have elected Obama-supporting superdels on Guam today.

OMG! GotNOlife was wrong. The Queen o' the Clintoids did noy win Guam by 699% thus the math gap still exists . . . dshungu must be sad.

avatar

Hard to believe with over 170,000 people in Guam that only 4500 voted.

Are these actual popular vote numbers or precinct delegate numbers?

Maybe a lot of Guamanians don't vote because they don't think their votes matter in US primaries. I think they are more interested in their own general elections. Here are the results of the 2006 General in Guam which might give a more detailed report of the voting habits of Guamanians.

And, maybe some are Republicans.

avatar

It's close, but still a win... just like the rest of America.

Since Guam has the equivalent of 9 electoral votes, what this apparently means is a 1 delegate advantage for Obama.

He won 14 out of 21 districts overall.

+1 is a win.

avatar

Obama campaign's biggest success was getting people to vote for Lujan/Paulino. That's +2 superdelegates for Obama, and if Bordallo follows the popular vote, it's a 6-3 delegate swing.

avatar

If you give Clinton Nevada and Texas, which you have, than Obama definitely gets Guam.

It's all about the delegates. She got the official victories in both Nevada and Texas but he escaped with the delegates. As such, she continues to lose.

avatar

I'm citing precedent. Like it or not, the media has been giving them to Clinton.

avatar

Actually Texas isn't as simple as Nevada. Their Texas two-step system gave Clinton the win in the primary and Obama the win in the caucus with Obama winning the overall delegate contest.

avatar

Yep... although I was off on one of the SDs, it appears, so it's only 5-4... but a delegate win is a win, especially since some in the media had made a mistake in giving Clinton two of those SDs, which she just lost today in the election that went along with the caucus.

avatar

Eric, I'm a little confused about Guam's offerings to the convention. According to reports, the four pledged delegates are, indeed, being split between Obama and Clinton, but there were also apparently 5 superdelegates coming out of the election in addition to these 4 pledged delegates.

One report said the concurrent Guam elections for a Party Chairman and Vice Chairman happen to be superdelegate positions. Both these winners are going to support Obama. But what of the other three?

avatar

One of the other three supports Obama... and two of them don't.

So that makes Guam 5-4 Obama on superdelegates, or a one delegate gain.

How can Clinton win the White House if she cant win Guam, this reasons many questions on her ability to get elected in the general. Well thats what the Clinton's would say if they won.

No kidding. It'd be all about how he couldn't close the deal with working class islanders and how this definitely shows that he's not electable. People are having doubts about him. Buyers remorse. But now they can brush it away and say it was a caucus, they don't even count in the general, they're all coconut latte sipping, flip-flop wearing, beach dwellers that don't contribute to the economy.

avatar

GotaLife has been strangely silent on Obama's win.

What a horserace!

Big Brown showed his true colors.

Sad about the filly...
Very sad.

avatar

please tell me you're talking about the horse race

here's to obama winning the triple crown - US senate, democratic nomination, and general election!

avatar

by the way, i don't mean to be politically incorrect here, but could it be a sign that a horse named big brown came in first and the female came in second.

avatar

*sorry, should have read "only female in the race"

I hope Hillary won't get euthanized, however.

I don't dislike her that much.

Self-"euthanize", may be ? Just saying, you know (God, I hate those last two words)

avatar

*AND* that the female had to be put out of her misery.

Now it's time to make those calls into Indiana and North Carolina and put Hillary out of her misery. And ours.

It's the only humane thing to do, really...

avatar

I'm thinking May 7th will be judgement day. You will start to see more movement by the SD's.

Can I also just say that I'm really fed up with the MSM. These "pundits" should all just be gagged!!!

avatar

As Wolfson put it: A win is a win.

But why can't Hillary close the deal?

Is this buyer's remorse?

avatar

Markkraft hit the nail on the head. The pledged delegates are most likely (although not yet definitely) split 2-2, but Obama picks up at least two super delegates. So it's a good win for him overall.

oh no! Guam doesn't count anymore!

avatar

Wolfson is an ass.

avatar

Gee - Obama still takes the PV and the SDs - despite Hillary's offering a chicken in every pot and a new Toyota PRIUS in every garage!!

>>

I bet this race has kept them occupied for awhile and I'm not surprised they split.

I'm not being snarky - I know what a really small population is like - I bet they enjoyed the hell out of this for weeks.


It's one of the beautiful things about this election. Every state counts, every vote is precious, and rules matter. Sen Clinton did not spark it, nor is she any longer sustaining it.

Now, very shortly, this wave of We the People is about to impact a broken federal system. Disassembly of the Clintons I consider suitable ante.

Pax,
M.

Speaking about a horserace as omen...

Did anybody notice that Chelsea was at Churchill Downs dressed like the Princess of England?

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/photo;_ylt=Ao0PgClfeI_VrwH3qxIykeF__rkF?slug=cef045fad1b44bb2a478ec0b3e2f55aa.kentucky_derby_horse_racing_kyd199&prov=ap

Guess when you got money and are "elite" you go to the biggest race of the year, wear a funny hat, and put all you money down on the only filly in the race.

Well guess what?

Second place and two broken ankles.
Clintons! Put that in your superstitious pipe and smoke it!

avatar

Actually, they killed that poor horse. Nice pastime,that horse racing. Apparently killing an animal on the track warrants nary a mention.

But though I hope Hillary goes the hell away, I don't wish upon her the fate of the poor filly. So there, the parallels end.

Go Big Brown!

It seems rough to kill a horse like that but it's really for the best. Horses are so massive that injuries to their legs are almost impossible to fix. It's sad.

avatar

liberal historian -

you are supposed to dress over the top for the derby, dipshit.

aren't much of a historian, are ya?

"liberal historian" you are a Grade AAA asshole.

First, everybody dresses funny at the Derby. It's tradition.

Second, they euthanized that horse. I suppose you cheered when you heard the news.

Sick, disgusting, mindless little 'bot.


East side...

West side...

All around The Troll!

Actually, he was predicted to win in a blow out but won by only 7 votes.

Upset and two more are coming Tuesday:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080503/ap_on_el_pr/obama_working_class_whites;_ylt=AtZBiyX_PwDkqBek_XcwYjsDW7oF

It is all over but your whining.

avatar

Hillary was ahead by 30% at the start of the presidential race. She has failed miserably.

avatar

So, you're saying that Obama won then?!

And this supposed "blowout" that was supposed to happen in Guam... would it have gotten him any more delegates there?

Answer: No. His supporters did, however, get two superdelegate positions elected today, giving him an overall advantage in Guam of 1 delegate...

... which means that Obama now has more delegates than he did before Pennsylvania!

Don't run away gotachicken.

Back those claims by a fair and honest wager. You won't because your avatar is more important to you than the words you write.

CHIRP!

for those wondering, here's the context:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/saturday_superdelegate_roundup.php#comments

Yeah, but he's underpredicted a bunch of other primaries.

And he won Guam. Not by much, but it still counts as a win.

Hillary WON Texas and got less return for that.

He's now erased ALL the delegates she won in Pa.

Have a nice evening.

avatar

Okay... complete Guam breakdown.

elected delegates
Obama 2
Clinton 2

Superdelegates:
Obama: 3, apparently.
Paulino (endorsed), Lujan (uncommitted, but runningmate Paulino endorsed). Also, either Sen. Benjamin Cruz or attorney Mike Phillips (both Obama supporters) will be named as a superdelegate.

Clinton: 2
Taitano. Bordallo.

So yes... a one delegate advantage for Obama.

Guam is the latest example of why caucuses are bad democracy. Around 1.25% of the population does not make a winner nor have any credibility as a reflection of the population's choice.

Matthew


Yep.

"A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 8 of Guam's 13 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 4 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention). Guam's caucus is conducted like a party-run primary where voters cast secret ballots in their respective precincts. Polls open at 10 a.m and close at 8 p.m. local time (UTC+10 hours). A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates."

More loser talk from the Eight Belles contingent.

Matthew, it's not good for babies to be cried upon while so young...

I hereby denounce and reject Matthew Weaver's avatar pandering with two newborns, especially with all his racist bilge.

Where do you get off with your "racist bilge"? Haven't anything more substantive to say when faced with criticism of Obama, and my comment was instead focused on caucuses, not on Obama anyway. It is pathetic to see the ready use of insults and accusations by Obama supporters.


It's pathetic to think little babies grow up to be racists.

avatar

They were run just like primaries except the people were voting directly for the delegates (which technically made it a caucus). The only thing a primary might have changed was the number of spoiled ballots. I suspect the caucus format was a bit more confusing so whoever had the most supporters with reading comprehension problems probably lost some votes.

avatar

I demand a recount!

avatar

Matthew Weaver: It's called a caucus but it was a primary.

I believe you are correct, they actually vote for the presidential nominee on paper ballots.

If Hillary won it would have been a fine win, a vision of political strategy and precision.

You left out "game changing".

"The DPG noted a high number of spoiled ballots in Dededo".

Recount!

Give it up Eight Belles.

You lost!

Let's get this straight: An animal breaks both legs and has to be put down, and Obama's supporters think it's funny. Big freakin' joke there in that junior high school boys' room of yours, Bucky.

Sick, demented little children. Pathetic, twisted, tiny little minds laughing at tragedy.

Is this the sort of "change" your Dear Leader stands for? Is this the "hope" He wants to bring to this country?

Losers.

Gesundheit!

Please don't paint all Obama supporters with the same brush. I for one am VERY sad about Eight Belles, and am disturbed by the comparison.

Eat shit, you humorless, monster-loving blowhard.

Grade school chump.

There. Ya feel better now, Bucky?

avatar

Dededo was the last area counted, to this point Obama had a 7% lead? Not saying anything, but are you sure you got the spelling right on your name?

avatar

If Hillary wants a recount, she can certainly pay the money for one. Either way, it's a 2-2 delegate split there, with Obama getting a 3-2 edge on superdelegates.

And a one delegate win is still quite definitely a win.

Dededo was strongly won by Clinton. Really want that recount?

chirrrrrp!

avatar

Obama's spreadsheet predicted an 11% win in Guam. Has his momentum shifted? And, BTW he also predicted a 7% win in IN.

A new NH poll on RCP has Clinton losing to McCain by three and Obama losing to McCain by seven. He loses worse than Clinton among Independents.

Hope you are not superstitious.

In spite of all that, she is still losing to him. This poses significant problems for Senator Clinton.

avatar

So is Guam like the Mason Dixie States?

Until a nominee is chosen the national polls against Sen McCain don't say much, and supers are not really paying attention to them, mostly because they are, with few exceptions, all within the margin of error.

Undeclared elected super dels are slavering over the Obama money machine, however, knowing it cannot be inherited by Sen Clinton. Green is the color which motivates them most.

Also, unless you are part of the Obama campaign, I'm sure this Oracle of Excel of which you speak has probably been updated once or twice since the version you worship came to light.

Once Obama has clinched it, the campaign will return to issues, and the GOP looses on pretty much all counts.

I do not understand the "superstitious" reference. Should I be knocking over salt, or avoiding sidewalk cracks?

It will all be over soon.

Pax,
M.

Yeah, I know it will be, but the part that's really annoying me is that until then, it's more

clap, clap, point, point, nod, nod.

God, I hate that.

Me, too. Reason #442 why we need change.

With the philly finishing second today and then being euthanized, the superstitions are shifting against the Shrillary forces of triangulation and bullshit.

...philly....

He's not just an asshole, he's a semi-literate asshole.

Maybe next year, in Junior English class, they'll teach you the difference between a city in Pennsylvania (which The Dear Leader lost, by the way) and a young female horse.

Assuming you finish sophomore year first, Bucky.

Twit.

Yo dumbass.

Obama WON Philly.

Now shove your condescension up your ass.

Yo dumbass!

Obama WON Philly.

Now take your monster-loving condescension, and shove it up your ass.

Obama WON Philly.

Reading is fundamental, Bucky.

Semi-literate, chump asshole.

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the latest Clinton talking points!

Obama's spreadsheet predicted a 2-2 split in Guam, which is exactly what he got.

avatar

All of these races are local, so citing momentum really only goes so far.

Ultimately, Hillary didn't lose Guam by as much as predicted because Bill went there, and Hillary made a bunch of panderpromises.

... but the Clinton's shaving a few percentages in Guam made *zero* difference in the delegate outcome, while Obama stayed on focus in Indiana and North Carolina, which is where he needs to be in order to make a real delegate difference.

So yeah... he coasted on Guam, and still won.

BTW, she "predicted" that she was the inevitable nominee. She was expecting victory by the end of Super Tuesday. Too bad she lost the crown.

avatar

The difference is that he supposedly does not engage in the old politics,so should we be pointing her as a role model for his word and actions?

He votes for tax holidays trice in IL and them slams her for the same thing. Sure sounds like recycled politics on his part.

If you would bother to study the issue, you would hear him say "we tried that in IL, and it was a failure." Politics is trial, failure, and trial again until you get it. Sometimes you do not.

A gas tax holiday does not stir the National Anthem in me, not with such bigger fish to fry. This is Sen Clinton's core problem: she does not inspire. She only endures. Like pneumonia.

Sen Clinton admits failure with the same frequency as W. They also have obliteration in common.

Pax,
M.

I think I actually meant "legislating" not "politics" with regard to process.

We've been in a campaign for, what? 16 years now? Bill Clinton never stopped campaigning, and the existing criminal enterprise posing as a presidency has its own propaganda problems.

We need to end the campaign. Once the votes are counted, of course.

Pax,
M.

Sounds like spin on your part.

Guam is having an automatic recount. 500 "spoiled" ballots.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/3/203619/3196

avatar

Doesn't matter much though, as the delegate results will be the same.

avatar

One of the superdelegates is endorsing the popular vote winner so it could flip one superdelegate.

avatar

eric klondike, 2,257 "regular" people 2,264 negroes and latte sippers on guam...oh i gotta go poop...too many lattes.
i'm back. where was i? oh yeah read on the kos that the day finished 7 to 3 delegates for obama. but he is having such a bad newscycle wright?, wright, wright, wright, wright, wright, wright, wright, wright,...WRONG!. good thing he is so damn good at raking in delegates cos that happens to be the currency of victory.

avatar

Officials Say Recount Is 'Imminent'
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 04.MAY.08
*9:30 a.m.* Guam - The Democrat Party Nominating Committee said officials will look over the large amount of "spoiled ballots" in the coming days.

At issue is the small margin of victory of Senator Barack Obama. He beat his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton by 7 votes, but well over 500 ballots were deemed invalid during the tabulation process.

Herbie Perez, chairman of the nominating committee, said she will not certify the results because the Committee needs to ensure that all the uncounted ballots were properly identified as "spoiled."

She said officials from the Party and representatives from both candidates will meet probably Monday or Tuesday to address that issue.

Perez revealed she is also looking into the missing ballots.

More than 8,100 were printed in response to reports of shortages at precinct sites. But when the final tally came in, only a little over 4,500 ballots were used.

Article Here - its a long url:
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=97&twindow=&mad=&sdetail=24109&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com

avatar

enough about guam, let's get back to reverend wright. that is what really matters

OBAMA WON GUAM!!!! WOO-H0O!!!!

The Dear Leader can't win the swing states, but he sure took Guam by storm. Sorta. Maybe. If you squint a little.

Wow. There's jubilation in Study Hall tonight.

And the best part? It's Saturday!!!! You kiddies get to stay up late celebrating!!!!

Word up!

Can't win swing states: He won Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota. Her swing states: Pennsylvania and Ohio.

EastWest...

Nice work honey buns.

Keep playing the sour grapes card.
If the Indiana pricks are dumb enough to fall for my gas tax holiday they might also be dumb enough to think the grapes are sour too.

You are doing a heck of a job honey...

avatar

A BIG yawn in Guam!